The A.P. Delegate Count:
Clinton 744
Obama 679
2,025 Needed
McCain 570
Romney 251
Huckabee 175
1,191 Needed
On Intrade, Mrs. Clinton is at 52.1 and Mr Obama 46.5 for the democratic nomination.
A number of political observers note the importance of Missouri as a kind of national bellwhether; there Obama won 49% to 48% with some having called Missouri for Mrs. Clinton earlier in the evening. It really is that close–KSH.
CNN is reporting:
Democrats Needed to Win = 2,025
Candidate Pledged Superdels. Total
Clinton 632 193 825
Obama 626 106 732
Republicans Needed to Win = 1,191
Candidate Pledged Unpl. RNC Total
McCain 598 17 615
Romney 259 9 268
Huckabee 166 3 169
Whoo!! Missouri!! YEAH!
We confound everyone!
Kendall,
I know one thing for sure, whomever wins the Democratic nomination is going to be totally worn out.
It looks like the daily delegate count is going to be a feature on the Dem side for a long while, maybe even to the convention.
Back in the olden days, the daily delegate count was a newspaper staple, and indeed was always recited as part of the networks’ evening news (Cronkite; Huntley/Brinkley). I believe that the last time that delegate count was so regularly compiled and reported was in the Ford/Reagan battle for the GOP nomination in 1976. Before that we would have to go back to 1968, which had serious contests on both sides. And I believe the count was always cited and reported daily in and before 1968.
Toral
This election is quite interesting indeed. On the Dem side, Obama has done quite well. I am impressed with how the party is essentially unified, even as Barack and Hillary duke this out; the majority of supporters of either candidate will happily vote for the other come November, if that is the choice. On the GOP side, things are not so harmonious, as McCain is not considered by many as a “true” conservative (this boggles my mind!). If McCain is smart, he will invite Huckabee to be his running mate, and hope to get the votes of those who are threatening to stay home in November.
#5 – What has McCain done in the past to show he is conversative at all? This is a real question, not being sarcastic. I don’t think, based on his past that he is conversative at all, and has done all in his power to thwart conservatives in the Senate for the past four years. Your take?
If the Dem race remains very close, one issue certain to arise is the credentials of Florida and Michigan delegates. The DNC disqualified Florida and Michigan delegates because those states moved their primaries up too far in the calendar. However, the Clinton camp is already making calls to un-disqualify the delegates, which, of course, would favor her as she won both primaries.
McCain and Clinton are clearly Washington establishment candidates. If you remove the results for the four home states you see that Romney only won in states where Obama won. That coupling pattern suggests to me that a strong contrarian streak might be brewing in much of the Union. This streak may be masked by the current fixation on the top of the ticket, where there are many winner-take-all forces at work. Congressional districts, however, are not influenced by the Electroal College system, and in relative terms can reflect sentiment at a much finer level than can be reflected in presidential races. Is there an anti-incumbent tidal wave coming in the next Congress?
Mis-typed on 8: Should read: remove the results for the [i]five[/i] home states: AR, NY, MA, IL, AZ
I’m with Marion… I’ve developed a general bias against anybody in office more than two terms. I’m against constitutional term limits, but I intend to vote for grassroots de facto term limits. Even voted against our mayor, whom I generally like, because after two good terms I saw disturbing signs of “incumbent malaise.” He won anyway.
I dread either of the Dem candidates, and none of the GOP leaders inspires much confidence in me that they have a chance of beating the Dems. My only hope is a contrarian, deadlocked Congress. The less they do, the better off most of us are.
#6. Well, let’s see. He was chief champion of the surge and the Iraq war in general, and is the toughest talk around on Iran. He believes tax cuts should only be granted when paid for with spending cuts (making him more fiscally conservative than Bush). He opposes earmarks with a vengeance. He is ardently pro-life. He may not be conservative enough for you (on immigration, campaign finance, etc…), but to say he “isn’t conservative [i]at all[/i]” (my emphasis) goes a bit far.
I was pleased to see McCain do well. I simply don’t trust Romney, and don’t like his negative tactics.
I do wish Obama had done better than he did.
#11. How do you think McCain will work with a Republican party he has poked in the nose for four years? We will see if he is more fiscally conservative than Bush if he gets to wield the veto pen. Bush didn’t run away with spending, Congress did, although I will admit he wouldn’t go to the wall for much fiscally, just SCHIP, as I recall. Congress sort of had him over a barrel for money for the war in Iraq. As far as “offsets” go, the tax “cut” put more money in the government coffers than ever. Congress just can’t help itself, I guess. As far as Romney, name one negative tactic. McCain has been the one with the closest to a smear campaign. Granted, I’m in Maryland, we get to see these guys in action this week.
The count here in Missouri had Sen. Clinton slightly ahead as late as 95% precincts counted. Sen. Obama didn’t take the lead until those last (Metro Kansas City and Metro St. Louis) precints reported in.
#12, I don’t know how he’ll work with the GOP. But you were saying McCain isn’t conservative in any way. I think it is clear he is conservative in several ways. Not in every way, as I said, but in several ways. I find the absolutist model of conservativism (you’re either 100% down the line Rush Limbaugh, or your a flamin’ San Francisco liberal!) amusing, and self-destructive.
As for Romney, he has run attack ads against everyone nearly everywhere (maybe not in Maryland, but everywhere else including here in Calif.), and is thus pretty well hated by the other candidates. His attacks may or may not have been correct factually, but they were still attacks. I consider that “negative”. I also find his recent comments about Huckabee to be arrogant and presumptuous, as though he were entitled to the conservative votes that Huck is “stealing” from him.
But don’t listen to me, I’m a conservative, blue-dog Democrat, and don’t really have a dog in this fight.
#13. I didn’t say he wasn’t conservative, I just asked what he had done to convince YOU he was a conservative. As far as Romney attack ads, like I said, I get it this week. I haven’t heard anyone but you say this. If policy differences are pointed out in ads, that is not an attack ad in my book. Stretching the truth, or ad hominem attacks are. I disagree with McCain’s immigration policy and feel that border security goes hand in hand with war on terrorism, or what’s the point?. His stem cell research position I find troubling. And I don’t trust him to nominate conservative or constructionist judges to the nations’ courts, which makes me distrust his “pro-life” stance. As far as Romney’s comments about Huckabee, last night I heard Huckabee say the same thing about Romney. You aren’t angry with Huckabee, are you?
Oh, and I did forget, let me clarify. As a pro-life counsellor in a crisis pregnancy center, I AM still steamed about McCain-Feingold. But I don’t think Huckabee would make a very good president, so I have been evaluating Romney.
Dear Crabby in MD, sorry it took a while for me to log back in. My take on McCain is similar to that of Alta Californian. I see in McCain a fiscal conservative, and a military hawk. My take on his vision of government is that of protecting our nation and facilitating private enterprise. I see his views on immigration as what he thinks necessary to provide the work force we need to sustain a growth economy. I see him as wanting government to be focused purely on the task at hand for the common good, and not beholden to special interests. Hence, the campaign finance reform bill. John McCain sticks to his principles independent of the “party line” and independent of partisanship. I disagree with McCain on a number of important issues, but I highly respect him and see him as a very principled conservative. Also, of interest, like many on SF and T19, he left ECUSA to find a haven of Christian orthodoxy (in his case, the Baptist Church).
Physician: Thanks for the input. I guess my peeve with McC – F is the fact that the law did constrain free speech, but, not limit special interests shenanigans, in fact, it seems to have had just the opposite effect. And no one wants to repeal it, which, to me, says there’s got to be some REAL goodies in that law the commoners don’t know about! The fact that the electorate isn’t howling for its repeal troubles me. I don’t care WHAT the Supreme Court said about it being constitutional. His name is on a muzzle law, even IF that is all water under the bridge. I would have more respect if he had admitted to the unforseen outcome, gone back and repealed it. His actions in the Senate, of course, are local news for me, and, I admit it, sometimes I have gotten REALLY tired of him. I know some people find this “refreshing”, ‘honest”, “principled”, but I find some of it “power hungry”, “poor manners” (in the fact that he is not above midnight shenanigans of his own), and a bit “impulsive”. Not very good leadership qualities in my book. The fact that he saw the light about ECUSA and bolted (I also am a Baptist for the time being, don’t know how long I can stay though. But THAT is another thread altogether!!!) tells me something I didn’t know. Keep the comments coming, I’ve got a decision to make by next Tuesday!!! And thanks for taking my inquiry seriously.
Dear Crabby, I think that you are going to have trouble finding “perfection” in any candidate. My take on Romney is that he has flip-flopped on so many issues that it is hard to know where he really stands. There is definitely alot of compromise that goes in to picking a candidate, and thank God we are not voting on a Saviour! I hope that you have better weather next week than many did this week on election day.
#17 – If McCain was smart politically, he would change his denomination for votes. Why not?