From the front page of the local paper, the Charleston, S.C., Post and Courier:
When it comes to hurricanes, statistically speaking, our time is up.
That’s what the National Hurricane Center in Miami said in a recent recalculation of “return periods,” the average number of years between major hurricanes.
Using historical data, the hurricane center said Charleston should expect a Category 3 or higher hurricane every 15 years.
Hugo slammed into South Carolina 18 years ago.
“We’re slightly overdue,” said Jon Jelsema, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Charleston.
The study, titled “The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2006,” shows which cities are likely to get walloped the most.
Miami tops the list with a return period of just nine years; Cape Hatteras is second at 11 years.
Ugh. Read it all.
Kendall, as a New Orleans native and now Nashville, TN resident for 10 yrs. now, my prayers for you and yours and all Carolina residents for many more major hurricane-free statistical-abberant years!
When it comes to hurricanes, statistically speaking, our time is up.
If you flip a fair coin and get 15 heads in a row, then the probability of a head on the next flip is…..drum roll….. still 1/2.
Earthquakes, volcanoes and trains can legitimately said to be overdue. Not hurricanes.
As another Nashvillian, where the weather forecasts sound more like the Southwest, we don’t wish hurricanes on anybody, but would not be unhappy if the remnants came this way.