In a grim assessment of the Ebola epidemic, researchers say the deadly virus threatens to become endemic to West Africa instead of eventually disappearing from humans.
“The current epidemiologic outlook is bleak,” wrote a panel of more than 60 World Health Organization experts in a study published Tuesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.
“We must therefore face the possibility that Ebola virus disease will become endemic among the human population of West Africa, a prospect that has never previously been contemplated.”
I’ve been keeping track of the statistics from each of the WHO’s Ebola
Situation reports. One thing I’ve found very helpful and revealing is
to calculate the average number of new Ebola cases per day in each of
the three countries.* Of course, some of the change could be more
complete reporting, but still, the increase in number of cases per day
is very telling:
[b]Mid-July[/b]
Guinea: 1 new case reported per day
Liberia: 7 new cases reported per day
Sierra Leone: 9 new cases reported per day
[b]TOTAL: 17 new cases per day [/b]
[b]mid-August:[/b]
Guinea: 14 new cases reported per day
Liberia: 51 new cases reported per day
Sierra Leone: 20 new cases reported per day
[b]TOTAL: 86 new cases per day (also includes Nigeria)[/b]
[b]mid September:[/b]
Guinea: 17 new cases reported per day
Liberia: 80 – 100 cases reported per day
(last week’s rate was 105 new cases per day, this week’s rate is currently 78…)
Sierra Leone: 35 – 40 new cases per day
[b]TOTAL:[/b]
– last week: 160 new cases per day (the highest reported level so far)
– this week: currently averaging 130 cases per day… but that’s likely to go higher with new data expected from Liberia & Sierra Leone)
[i]*I’m calculating these rates by dividing the total change in cumulative cases per country between reports by the number of days since the prior report. WHO is generally issuing two reports per week (generally Tuesdays and Fridays). The data I’ve cited above comes from the periods July 18 – 24 / August 16 – 22 / Sept 12 – 18 & Sept 19 – 23.[/i]
Important new article about Ebola in the New England Journal of Medicine:
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
Key quote:
Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still.