The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
This is probably an outlier result, but indicative of a trend. It shall be interesting to see what the Democrats do to contradict this trend, and going negative or dirty might not work due to “crying wolf” all last week.
I believe the conservatives of the nation were just waiting for a reason, any reason, to jump on McCain’s wagon; the additioin of Palin to the ticket gave them their open door.
#2 – that would describe me, not an accident that I had given McCain no $$ until he picked Palin.
The larger question though is, will it matter in Michigan (or the neighboring states)? On this the election will be won or lost….
Gallup and Zogby also have McCain/Palin up by several points. Of further interest is the fact that Obama’s 20+ point lead in the Intrade prediction market has been almost entirely wiped out. See here.
I hadn’t contributed to Obama until McCain picked Palin…..
I will not be voting for John McCain, but I think I will be voting for Sarah Palin.
Obama is in a tail spin right now. From Drudge:
[blockquote]Obama’s verbal slip fuels his critics: ‘My Muslim faith’…
Says he considered joining military after high school…
Says could delay rescinding tax cuts…
Says was too flip on abortion question… [/blockquote]
The Obama camp has reached a critical juncture. I have been thinking that his victory was inevitable since January. Now, I think he will not win.
I am not thrilled about John McCain for many reasons. If he had picked just about anyone else, I would be voting for Bob Barr. He didn’t. He picked someone I think could be president after him.
I don’t like McCain’s positions on illegal migrant amnesty [Kennedy-McCain bill], restriction on free speech [McCain/Feingold bill], opposition to expanding the GI bill [S. 22], opposition to the Bush tax cuts, Gang of 14 leadership [blocking constructionist judges], membership in the Keating Five corruption club, support for fetal stem cell research, belief in man made global warming, opposition to gay marriage ban, and his emnity toward the “Christian right”.
[Wow, I have almost talked myself out of voting GOP, again.]
But, the prospect of having a real conservative VP, and presumptive future presidential candidate in Sarah Palin, is hard to resist. She is a genuine conservative with a strong anti-corruption history. I want her for president. To get that, I have to put up with McCain. I think he was a real war hero, but we have very different world views and I don’t think he will represent my values. I do think that he will continue to lead the country well in a time of war, but that’s about all. [Not that that isn’t a big deal. It is.]
No, with Obama/Biden on the one side and Sarah Palin on the other…I will take the bitter, bitter McCain pill and hope for the best.
Interesting, but part of the issue is if new voters will actually vote. They are not represented on this poll.
I would say both campaigns are at critical junctures. However,, Obama is leading, or a statistical tie in many states where Bush won handily in 2004. It seems, at this point, Ohio, Michigan and PA will go for Obama, and he has a pretty good chance in Virginia and Indiana. Even Montana, Nevada and Florida are in play.
McCain will blow Obama out in Idaho, Utah and other states: for this reason the national percentage will be close. But if those with cell phones, African Americans and people under the age of 34 vote in larger numbers than in previous elections, Obama will take it. And these are generally “unlikely voters.”
‘… he has a pretty good chance in Virginia and Indiana’.
Hey John, I have a Bridge (to nowhere) to sell you. 🙂
hi Azusa, McCain might win both states.
Indiana 2004 Bush 60 Kerry 39
Currently: McCain 45 Obama 43
fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama a 21% chance.
VA 2004 Bush 54 Kerry 45
Currently McCain 45 Obama 45 (I’ve also seen 47.7 / 47)
fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama a 54% chance.
As far as a Road to Nowhere, the one Palin supported? Or the one she opposed?
[blockquote]As far as a Road to Nowhere, the one Palin supported? Or the one she opposed? [/blockquote]
The one she killed, the one Alaskan Democrats credit her with killing. Oh, and the one that Obama and Biden both voted for.
You mean bill 3058? The one 93% of the senate voted for? If anything, it demonstrates bipartisanship…. You’ll have to do better than that, Jefferson.
Palin still got a bunch of earmarks from Washington. Good for her. She was doing her job.
So, Sen. Obama and Sen. Biden should “go along to get along” and vote with everyone else on earmarks? Great leadership there, John Wilkins.
[blockquote]You mean bill 3058? The one 93% of the senate voted for? If anything, it demonstrates bipartisanship…. You’ll have to do better than that, Jefferson. [/blockquote]
Bipartisanship, as in the Corleones and Tattaglias divvying up turf. Yep, that’s the one, the Coburn Amendment. Thank goodness Palin swam upstream against this two-pronged plundering of our patrimony.
Alot can happen between now and November…
#14: Very true. What’s the betting Joe Biden is taken ill and Hillary magnanimously steps up to the (blue) plate (special)?
The “best chance” for the American people to have a government that actually does something worthwhile in 2009 is to elect a strongly Democrat congress, but not veto-proof, and elect McCain-Palin to the white house. I think the last thing we ought to want, at this time, is a democrat in the white house and a democrat-controlled congress. We had that, with the other party in power, from 2000 to 2006, and it is not a good deal for us out here in the heartland. The system of checks and balances is our best hope right now, isn’t it?
She swam upstream when it was easiest and she didn’t have to spend too much capital. She does sound a lot like Bush. McCAin’s been part of the feeding at least 90% of the time himself.
Obama is a realist, not an ideologue.
Unlike our current president. This is why Obama will be effective.
Effective at what?
Obama is a realist, not an ideologue.
Of course he is. It’s just that his perception of “reality” matches perfectly the liberal one, as demonstrated by his voting record.
#19 – as Stephen Colbert noted, reality has a liberal bias.
reality has a liberal bias
It is the nature of a liberal to think so. It is the nature of a conservative to think otherwise.