We debated the merits of collective wisdom earlier this year, after the bettors in the the Intrade online prediction market wrongly picked Barack Obama to win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors are looking more savvy now that the election’s over and the last undecided state, Missouri, has finally been called for John McCain. Once again, collective wisdom backed by cash has triumphed over conventional wisdom ”” at least when you compare the Intrade bettors with some of the pundits who get paid to make predictions.
On the morning of Election Day, I printed out the expectations from the Dublin-based Intrade market as well as a roundup of predictions from nearly two dozen political consultants, journalists and academics that appeared at the Huffington Post.
The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College ”” one less than he actually got. None of the pundits came so close.
In defense of Nate Silver, he still did pretty well. And he’s not really a pundit.
And Mr. Silver also did a pretty good job of correcting some sketchy business at Intrade.