The US economy will tip into a recession next year, according to nearly 70 per cent of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times.
The latest survey, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, suggests mounting headwinds for the world’s largest economy after one of the most rapid rebounds in history, as the Federal Reserve ramps up efforts to contain the highest inflation in about 40 years.
The US central bank has already embarked on what will be one of the fastest tightening cycles in decades. Since March it has raised its benchmark policy rate by 0.75 percentage points from near-zero levels.
The Federal Open Market Committee gathers once again on Tuesday for a two-day policy meeting, at which officials are expected to implement the first back-to-back half-point rate rise since 1994 and signal the continuation of that pace until at least September.
Almost 70% of the economists who participated in our latest poll with @ChicagoBooth’s IGM predict @nberpubs will declare a recession in 2023 https://t.co/uMD6PnzX30 @FinancialTimes @caitlinsgilbert
— Colby Smith (@colbyLsmith) June 12, 2022