1 million U.S. adults will develop dementia each year by 2060, study says

New cases of dementia will double by 2060, when 1 million U.S. adults are projected to develop the memory-robbing condition each year, according to a sobering new study published Monday in the journal Nature Medicine.

The new analysis shows that the risk a person faces over their lifetime is higher than some previous estimates: After age 55, 4 in 10 adults are likely to develop some form of dementia. That’s in part because the new analysis is based on decades of close follow-up, including regular cognitive assessments, of a racially diverse group of people — a quarter of whom were Black and face an increased risk of dementia.

“If you start at age 55 and go forward until your 95th birthday, there are two options: You die before dementia, or you get to dementia before death,” said Josef Coresh, founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine. From age 55 to 75, he noted, the risk of developing dementia is only about 4 percent. That increases substantially over the next two decades, particularly after people’s 85th birthdays.

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1 million U.S. adults will develop dementia each year by 2060, study says. Important story by ⁦@Carolynyjohnson⁩ https://t.co/1H2tmnKtLM

— Laurie McGinley (@lauriemcginley2) January 13, 2025