Last year, five per cent of the total population of the 27 EU countries was Muslim. But rising levels of immigration from Muslim countries and low birth rates among Europe’s indigenous population mean that, by 2050, the figure will be 20 per cent, according to forecasts.
Data gathered from various sources indicate that Britain, Spain and Holland will have an even higher proportion of Muslims in a shorter amount of time.
Mark Steyn, call your office!
MORE. Germany is unable to replace its national birth rate now. There is an important video out about this. Anyone else seen it??
#2, virtually ever European nation is in a similar condition, with, as I recall, Italy, Spain and Greece being the most dire.
I forget who said it, but it resonates well: “The future belongs to those who show up.”
Not so quick! Read Philip Jenkins materials for a different analysis, one that is much more constructive and aware of the opportunities as well as the challenges.
One of the Biggest Lies modern people have fallen victim to is that practicing birth control, getting an abortion, embracing the sterility of homosexual life styles, and the destruction of families through divorce are private matters.
Interestingly, the people of past eras were intelligent enough to realize these are NOT matters of privacy, but some of the most socially and culturally consequential actions people can do. It is we moderns –or at least the moderns who don’t give a crap about whether our culture and people have a future–who are the extremely blind. Is it selfishness that makes them so blind?? Hedonism?? Advertising media induced narcissism?? We have got to get over the idiotic, erroneous notion that what goes on behind bedroom doors only affects those behind the doors. Adopting a philosophy of “privacy” that is resulting in a society’s or people’s suicide deserves to be thrown into history’s rubbish heap. In fact, that certain claimed “rights” are not really rights at all (but scams hiding behind genuine rights) is proved by their disastrous negative effect on the future.
The fascinating thing (or one of them anyways) about the left’s “who cares” reaction to the birth dearth is that they are by contrast so convinced global warming will be the end of us, whereas fewer and fewer people, it’s no big deal. That the latter is demonstrably a problem (see: the Roman Empire) while the former involves incredibly complex scientific analysis reveals much about the post Christian west….
What I don’t understand is why we are not more grateful for our immigrant population here in the US, which is largely Hispanic and *Catholic*. We should be doing cartwheels, or at least thinking how bad it could be.
But LCF+, can you give us Jenkins’ take on this? I don’t know where to look.
I’d like to restate my comment in #8. We should, I think, be grateful that our immigrant population is not anti-Christian or anti-Western. I could wish that incoming hispanics would over time turn the tide on issues like abortion, but that may not be the case. I don’t mean to keep us from the focus of this article. I’m assuming that LCF+ meant Jenkin’s book, God’s Continent: Christianity, Islam, and Europe’s Religious Crisis, which I found on Google. Thanks for the recommendation.
The downside of Hispanic immigration is that US politics will increasingly coem to resemble Mexican politics. Ay caramba!
10, and that’s worse than Chicago or New Jersey politics?
A chuckle is always welcome. Thank you, #10 and 11.
More seriously: one of the frustrating things about the current situation here in the UK is the silence maintained by our political elite on this issue. Immigration and, more controversially, integration into the community, is That Which May Not Be Discussed. Our politicians are terrified of seeming illiberal. Last week a judge in Liverpool in sentencing a miscreant drew attention to the fact that the criminal had been due for deportation years ago, but nothing ever happened. The judge then went on to say that there were too many illegal immigrants like this, not integrating and sponging off the taxpayer; the system, he said, was broken. Predictably, the judge is now under investigation by the Lord Chancellor’s Office (our equivalent of Supreme Court Chief Justice) for improper remarks. One of the alarming side effects of this silence is that extremist parties then seize the initiative.
Sounds like someone has been watching the infamous Muslim Demographics video on YouTube. Unfortunately the missed watching the BBC video debunking “Muslim Demographics” and their accompanying articles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mINChFxRXQs
http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-on-demographics.html
God bless…
Panicked speculation based on current birthrates rarely pans out. After World War I, the French were terrified the Germans would swamp them. 100 years ago the French were among the least fertile countries in Europe, now they are among the most fertile. Going only by current birthrates abstracted into the future, the Amish will undoubtedly rule the world…
#11: It may actually improve Chicago and NJ organi- I mean, politics. In New York the watchword will be ‘Oy caramba!’
#12: The UK will not recover until or unless it reasserts its sovereignty from the European Union and gets rid of its officially sponsored ‘Equality Commissions’, aka racial grievance mongers.
#14: Are you aware that currently 40% of French births are to Muslims?? That’s why their birthrate has held up – Muslims have large families. That means in 20 years the new crop of young adults in France will be notionally majority Muslim.
#15: bull. maybe 4% of France is practicing Muslim, and they’re not having 16 babies for every non-Muslim one. In localized urban areas, maybe
Perfect definition of an ostrich with head in sand–those who ignore the Western Christian birth dearth.
#16: My statistics are correct. I don’t think many people in France are having ’16 babies’, at least not with one wife. But the demographic transformation in many European cities (Brussels, Malmo, Rotterdam) is undeniable.
#16 Do the math. Without counting the large number of highly secularized French of Muslim descent (they’re much more secular than the UK variety) the practicing Muslim population is perhaps 4%.
French total fertility rate is around 2.02
If 40% of babies are born to Muslim families, .4/.04 is 10 children
Non muslim families: .6/.96 = 0.625
10/.625 = 16 children a Muslim family would have for every one child a non-Muslim family had
Times a fertility rate of 2.02, that’s a Muslim TFR of around 20.2 and a non-Muslim TFR of around 1.26. Obvious nonsense.
Even counting everybody with an immigrant background from a Muslim country (maybe 10% as a high estimate), they’d have to have TFR of 8 against a local TFR of 1.35 to get 40%. Also obvious nonsense.
The Muslim population is highly urbanized. The proportion in selected cities is not a reflection of the proportion in the country. Urbanization, btw, tends to lead to extremely low birthrates over time.
Geoffery #9 You’ve got the right books by Jenkins.
You might also Google missions outreach to Muslims in Europe. Many of those agencies likewise report that there are unique dynamics in general and very clear opportunities for the Church in Europe as a result of the influx of Muslims. One of the biggest broad brush themes is that Islam is giving Europe permission to re-explore the question of God contra to the dominant secular belief systems. That question alone has opened the door to fresh Gospel witness–and then there are Muslim immigrants who are also re-examining what does Islam mean in a secular country like Germany compared to their Muslim majority country of origin. The statistics are important–but the data provides insight into God’s continued sovereignty in the world.