Germany is shrinking ”” fast. New figures released on May 17 show the birth rate in Europe’s biggest economy has plummeted to a historic low, dropping to a level not seen since 1946. As demographers warn of the consequences of not making enough babies to replace and support an aging population, the latest figures have triggered a bout of national soul-searching and cast a harsh light on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s family policies.
According to a preliminary analysis by the Federal Statistics Office, 651,000 children were born in Germany in 2009 ”” 30,000 fewer than in 2008, a dip of 3.6%. In 1990, German mothers were having on average 1.5 children each; today that average is down to 1.38 children per mother. With a shortfall of 190,000 between the number of people who died and the number of children who were born, Germany’s birth rate is well below the level required to keep the population stable.
“The German birth rate has remained remarkably flat over the past few years while it has increased in other low-fertility countries, like Italy and the Czech Republic,” Joshua Goldstein, executive director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, tells TIME. “Women are continuing to postpone motherhood to an older age and this process of postponement is temporarily lowering the birth rate.” According to Goldstein’s research, Germany has the longest history of low fertility in Europe.
Mark Steyn wrote a very interesting book on this very topic that is quite worth reading – “America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It”. The corporate consequences of these many individual acts will be dire for Germany (and every other nation whose native birthrate fails to maintain its population) in very short order. Recovery is nearly impossible.
Our younger cousins in BudaPest have an expression that illustrates it all — [i]kicsi vagy kocsi[/i] (pron. keechee vahdj kohchee) — means “kids, or a car.” Tax rates are generally so high in Europe that families in Hungary (and elsewhere) can’t afford both children and the car the need to get to work.
That child care is often “free” does not matter. The fatal flaw of social-democracy is that it generally destroys the demographic base on which it depends. Europe, especially places like Sweden having deeper experience in that realm, are attempting to move away from it as rapidly as possible.
That politicians in certain other countries wish to replicate the European social-democracy model merely demonstrates that they are lost in some intellectual world now a generation out of date.