“Back in the 1990s, if Syria wanted credit and trade and loans that they couldn’t get from the United States, they went to the Europeans,” said Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Obama administration official. Now, Mr. Takeyh said, Europe has joined the United States in imposing sanctions on Syrian exports, including its critical oil sector.
Aside from Iran, he said, Syria has few allies to turn to. “The Chinese recognize their economic development is more contingent on their relationship with us and Europe than on whether Assad or Qaddafi survives,” he said, referring to the deposed Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
Trying to forecast events in the Middle east is like watching children play with a kaleidoscope.
The first child picks up the kaleidoscope, gives it a turn and then says, “I see,” and then hands it to the second child who gives it to the second child who gives it a turn and says, “I see,” who then hands it to the third child and so on ….
What is certain about the Middle East is the ever present danger of chaos in a very very very dangerous part of the world. Events in that chaotic region can and usually will resist the efforts of nations outside of it to attempt to impose a solution on the region’s problems.
Add to this devil’s brew, a large contingent of religious fanatics who have proven that they care nothing about the impact of their actions on others in the world and who possess a capability to instigate conflict between Middle Eastern nations that possess very large armed forces and weapons of mass destruction, and I would urge CAUTION.
What the USA needs in this situation is extremely knowledgable foreign policy and military leadership that is well connected with ALL of the nations of the Middle East.
What we don’t need are sophomoric politicians who are still caught up in the ideologies of their 25 to 40 year-old college instructors and assistant/associate professors. Academics who have no better crystal ball than anyone else when it comes to predicting the likely outcomes of world events.