Many may view the emphasis on the 16 dioceses that did grow in 2010 as Spin while saying very little about the 84 dioceses rhat declined. I consider the effective Spin is to discuss Members and ignore ASA. In 2010, ASA for TEC declined 25,132. Data for 2010 finally contain fairly accurate ASA figures for Fort Worth, Pittsburgh, Quincy, and San Joaquin. In 2010, these 4 dioceses had a “one time” loss in ASA of 4,211. The remaining ASA loss of 20,921 might be viewed as the “normal” annual loss in ASA for TEC. If this is correct, then ASA for TEC will fall below 600,000 in 2013. At some low level of ASA the impact on Plate & Pledge will become fatal for many churches and some dioceses. Statmann
Hmmm… I wonder. Been spending the weekend with Niall Ferguson’s Civilization: The West and the Rest and reading with special interest his reflections on the decline of European Christianity and America’s reluctance (to date) to entirely follow that path. Not finished yet with his argument, but tentatively I would speculate that something much larger is going on than our skirmish over VGR. (I’m not denying that he and TEC’s love affair with homoeroticism are a part of that larger thing, even a symptom of it.)
What that may be I am unqualified to say, but I would speculate that when a community of faith has allowed itself to be a vehicle for a particular political, cultural or ethnic path to glory, then the decline or failure of that path will naturally undercut the confidence and attractiveness of the related faith community. If that’s true, it has applications all around, and may help us understand what the present proprietors of TEC are trying to do. And what might be in store for the next few decades for a bigger world than our little niche.
RE: “I consider the effective Spin is to discuss Members and ignore ASA.”
Agreed — but the other whopper is the line “Statistics mirror trends in U.S. Protestant membership.” In point of fact, the staggering rate of loss in TEC is far greater, percentage wise, than other Protestant denominations.
Any normal corporate executive of such an entity would say “hey — even if the overall market is shrinking and thus “losses are inevitable”, why is our organization plummeting faster than our competition’s?”
The fact that corporate executives are *not* asking that question aloud and publicly indicates to me that [i]they already know why but they’d really really like for others not to figure it out[/i].
A belated thank you for chiming in here. I want to second your point about the dire implications of the falling ASA figures for the viability of many congregations. With the median ASA in TEC now dropping to just 65 people, that means that a sginficant number of churches are already below the $150K threshold you often cite as the normal minimum income necessary to underwrite a full-time priest and typical programming. Perhaps even worse is that the 2010 figures show that over 27% of TEC congregations have an ASA of just 35 or less.
When parishes/missions have to cut back to part-time clergy, or drastically cut program and outreach costs, or are forced to merge with another congregation, the usual result is a siginificant acceleration of decline. The relentlessly negative momentum in this data is striking. The losses in TEC are starting to snowball, and there is no end in sight.
But I’m glad you pointed out, Statmann, that the ASA figures for 2010 at last acknowledge the fact that the vast majority of Episcopalians left the four departing dioceses of San Joaquin, Pittsburgh, Ft. Worth, and Quincy. But it leads me to wonder: how long will it take for 815 to publicly admit that the ASA in SC has plummetted to almost zero once +Lawrence is officially “deposed,” along with the great majority of the DSC being considered to have “abandoned the communion” of TEC??
Oops, I meant that in the case of the four departing dioceses, the vast majority of Episcopalians left with their orthodox bishops.
But this gives me a chance to add that I’d like to second what Sarah said too. TEC has been declining pretty steadily since it peaked in the mid 1960s, despite the general population doubling since then. In the business world, if any big company had done as badly as TEC has done for over 40 years now, both in terms of a steep decline in sales and a shrinking share of the (religious) market, there would’ve been vigorous attempts by the Board to turn things around, by firing executives and trying new approaches to reviving the business. They certainly wouldn’t tolerate continuing “business as usual.” No, heads would’ve rolled a long time ago.
Seems like a pretty straightforward article with an acknowledgement of decline and a challenge to turn outwards. What was the spin part?
I think the spin is neglecting to mention a major precipitating cause of our decline; namely, the consecration of Gene Robinson in 2003.
Many may view the emphasis on the 16 dioceses that did grow in 2010 as Spin while saying very little about the 84 dioceses rhat declined. I consider the effective Spin is to discuss Members and ignore ASA. In 2010, ASA for TEC declined 25,132. Data for 2010 finally contain fairly accurate ASA figures for Fort Worth, Pittsburgh, Quincy, and San Joaquin. In 2010, these 4 dioceses had a “one time” loss in ASA of 4,211. The remaining ASA loss of 20,921 might be viewed as the “normal” annual loss in ASA for TEC. If this is correct, then ASA for TEC will fall below 600,000 in 2013. At some low level of ASA the impact on Plate & Pledge will become fatal for many churches and some dioceses. Statmann
Hmmm… I wonder. Been spending the weekend with Niall Ferguson’s Civilization: The West and the Rest and reading with special interest his reflections on the decline of European Christianity and America’s reluctance (to date) to entirely follow that path. Not finished yet with his argument, but tentatively I would speculate that something much larger is going on than our skirmish over VGR. (I’m not denying that he and TEC’s love affair with homoeroticism are a part of that larger thing, even a symptom of it.)
What that may be I am unqualified to say, but I would speculate that when a community of faith has allowed itself to be a vehicle for a particular political, cultural or ethnic path to glory, then the decline or failure of that path will naturally undercut the confidence and attractiveness of the related faith community. If that’s true, it has applications all around, and may help us understand what the present proprietors of TEC are trying to do. And what might be in store for the next few decades for a bigger world than our little niche.
As Bp. Dan Herzog said at a keynote Evangelism address in 2002: ” Any farmer can tell you, if it ain’t growing, it’s dead.”
RE: “I consider the effective Spin is to discuss Members and ignore ASA.”
Agreed — but the other whopper is the line “Statistics mirror trends in U.S. Protestant membership.” In point of fact, the staggering rate of loss in TEC is far greater, percentage wise, than other Protestant denominations.
Any normal corporate executive of such an entity would say “hey — even if the overall market is shrinking and thus “losses are inevitable”, why is our organization plummeting faster than our competition’s?”
The fact that corporate executives are *not* asking that question aloud and publicly indicates to me that [i]they already know why but they’d really really like for others not to figure it out[/i].
Statmann (#3),
A belated thank you for chiming in here. I want to second your point about the dire implications of the falling ASA figures for the viability of many congregations. With the median ASA in TEC now dropping to just 65 people, that means that a sginficant number of churches are already below the $150K threshold you often cite as the normal minimum income necessary to underwrite a full-time priest and typical programming. Perhaps even worse is that the 2010 figures show that over 27% of TEC congregations have an ASA of just 35 or less.
When parishes/missions have to cut back to part-time clergy, or drastically cut program and outreach costs, or are forced to merge with another congregation, the usual result is a siginificant acceleration of decline. The relentlessly negative momentum in this data is striking. The losses in TEC are starting to snowball, and there is no end in sight.
But I’m glad you pointed out, Statmann, that the ASA figures for 2010 at last acknowledge the fact that the vast majority of Episcopalians left the four departing dioceses of San Joaquin, Pittsburgh, Ft. Worth, and Quincy. But it leads me to wonder: how long will it take for 815 to publicly admit that the ASA in SC has plummetted to almost zero once +Lawrence is officially “deposed,” along with the great majority of the DSC being considered to have “abandoned the communion” of TEC??
David Handy+
Oops, I meant that in the case of the four departing dioceses, the vast majority of Episcopalians left with their orthodox bishops.
But this gives me a chance to add that I’d like to second what Sarah said too. TEC has been declining pretty steadily since it peaked in the mid 1960s, despite the general population doubling since then. In the business world, if any big company had done as badly as TEC has done for over 40 years now, both in terms of a steep decline in sales and a shrinking share of the (religious) market, there would’ve been vigorous attempts by the Board to turn things around, by firing executives and trying new approaches to reviving the business. They certainly wouldn’t tolerate continuing “business as usual.” No, heads would’ve rolled a long time ago.
David Handy+