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The Latest Numbers from Intrade on the Republican Nomination Process and the Fall Election

Posted on March 22, 2012 by Kendall Harmon

Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012–92.1

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012–59.2

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Barack Obama

4 comments on “The Latest Numbers from Intrade on the Republican Nomination Process and the Fall Election”

  1. KevinBabb says:
    March 22, 2012 at 9:06 pm

    Fully conscious of the admonition that “hope is the cruelest emotion”,

    I note that, by this metric, the President’s chances of being re-elected have dropped by about 1 percentage point–or about 10%–from last week’s figures.

    Hopefully, as they say on Wall Street, “the trend is your friend.”

  2. KevinBabb says:
    March 22, 2012 at 9:16 pm

    My 10% figure is incorrect…what I meant to say is that, over the last week, the extent by which the President’s projected probability of being re-elected exceeds 50% has decreased by about 10%.

  3. Cennydd13 says:
    March 23, 2012 at 12:26 am

    Obama’s reelection would be the worst-case scenario.

  4. BlueOntario says:
    March 23, 2012 at 9:15 pm

    Personally, I’d rather that some Romney-friendly PAC paid me directly for my vote, rather than pay some media outlet to run ads. The good old days at least featured a keg of cider in front of the ballot place. Today the middleman has sucked dry whatever enjoyment there could have been out of chosing this or that product, er, candidate.