Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012–92.1
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012–59.2
Fully conscious of the admonition that “hope is the cruelest emotion”,
I note that, by this metric, the President’s chances of being re-elected have dropped by about 1 percentage point–or about 10%–from last week’s figures.
Hopefully, as they say on Wall Street, “the trend is your friend.”
My 10% figure is incorrect…what I meant to say is that, over the last week, the extent by which the President’s projected probability of being re-elected exceeds 50% has decreased by about 10%.
Obama’s reelection would be the worst-case scenario.
Personally, I’d rather that some Romney-friendly PAC paid me directly for my vote, rather than pay some media outlet to run ads. The good old days at least featured a keg of cider in front of the ballot place. Today the middleman has sucked dry whatever enjoyment there could have been out of chosing this or that product, er, candidate.