There is a lot of gobbledook floating around on this election so it is important to cut to the bottom line:
(1) The President has a definite advantage in the electoral College
(2) Mitt Romney has a chance to win
(3) This is a weird year. I absolutely, positively am skeptical of many polls and much of the analysis–KSH.
I think the Bradley Effect will have thrown the polls off a good bit. What that is is when a white person is polled, and they don’t care for the black candidate and there is a white candidate in the race, the answers will tend to favor the black candidate out of fear of the one being polled being considered a racist by the one giving the poll. Then, when the white voter goes to the voting booth, the voter finally feels free to vote as they truly desire. Therein lies the problem with political correctness run amuck.
#1: it’s possible. Some people are also claiming that the polls are consistently over-rating Democratic turnout versus Republican turnout.
I think it’s safe to say that if the polls are reasonably accurate and if everyone who intends to vote is able to vote and if those votes are counted fairly, then Obama will win. Romney has to hope that the polls are not accurate. Which is certainly possible.
Rasmussen’s final vote projection is: Romney 49.35%, Obama 47.88%
He has been very good esp. in national elections on these kinds of numbers.
Its a close election, and within the margin of error.
Nate Silver’s final projection is Obama over Romney, 313 to 225 in the EC and 50.8% to 48.3% in the PV. And he was pretty close to spot-on in 2008 and 2010.
But it’s close enough that if all the state-by-state polls are off by a consistent margin in Obama’s favor — and it wouldn’t have to be much of one — then it could still go Romney.
I don’t find Silver at all helpful, especially this year. His call in 2008 was not hard to make and he had access to a lot of data that many did not.
Someone like Michael Barone has Romney at over 300 electoral, to cite one of 100’s of examples out there. Barone is very sharp on this kind of stuff.
#1, I doubt that would happen this year. In 2008, OK, Obama was new, the economy was tanking. In 2012, I think concern over the economy would override any Bradley Effect.
CNN just called South Carolina for Romney. Humorously (or not) CNN has early S.C. vote totals with Obama up by a lot, in the 60’s, but of course it’s a very small sample.
6, I think we have four years more of politically correct indoctrination to deal with, so I disagree with you. I agree with you that it is the economy, though. Yet, that won’t change how a voter would be considered racist if a white voter has to say to a black poller they are voting for a white man. I know how I would be perceived in my predominantly black population area.
One more thing, 6, is the regular accusations by the main stream media that anyone that disagrees with Obama must be deep down, a racist.
#8, are most polls done face to face, or over the phone? I thought they were done over the phone, where racial categorization would be a harder thing to do.
It doesn’t matter what media is used to poll. If a white votes against Obama, we know that the likes of MSNBC would label them a racist.
Kendall (#5),
Barone will have to eat his words this morning. I also was surprised that he predicted such a strong Romney mandate.
Kendall, are you prepared to admit that Nate Silver was right and that your skepticism may have been based in wishful thinking? I ask that hopefully, as someone who has always admired your commitment to the truth, even when it is uncomfortable.