It’s hard for officials to even utter the word “recession.” They have to keep a stiff upper lip and try to keep confidence high ”” but it’s possible that battle is already lost. A new Associated Press-Ipsos poll reported Monday that 61 percent of Americans believe the country is already in recession. More and more economists are also moving into that camp.
“We do see the economy shrinking this quarter, and for the second quarter it’s going to be very weak as well,” says Bernard Baumohl of The Economic Outlook Group. “It’s just going to feel quite awful. And it’s going to result in the unemployment rate increasing and consumers cutting back on more spending.”
Although he believes the economy is shrinking right now, Baumohl isn’t quite willing to predict a recession, roughly described as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
“Well, if you’re pinning me down, I will say that we will ”” by the width of a hair ”” formally escape a recession,” Baumohl says. “But I don’t think anyone’s going to feel the difference between a recession and the kind of weak growth we’re going to experience the rest of this year.”