Here’s how it happened. No. 3 seed Baylor was up 56-46 on No. 14 seed Georgia State with 1:54 left in their NCAA tournament opener Thursday. The upset was virtually impossible at that point. It’s actually possible to put a number to it with a calculator on kenpom.com that controls for factors like time and possession and spits out win probabilities. It isn’t perfect, but it’s as close as college basketball comes to real-time odds.
So how unlikely was the Georgia State win? This calculator had Baylor’s win probability at 99.9%.