“Research shows that a vice-presidential candidate determines very few people’s votes,” says Paul Light, an expert”‰on the vice-presidency at New York University. “But it is one of the first big tests of a nominee’s decision-making and helps set the tone for the campaign.”
Economic expertise is likely to be another requirement given Mr McCain’s self-declared weakness on the issue. Executive experience, preferably outside Washington, would be another advantage to balance Mr McCain’s decades of legislative service on Capitol Hill.
Mr McCain’s main strategic decision will be the ideological identity of his running mate. As a Republican moderate, he is under pressure from conservatives to pick someone from the right of the party, such as Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, or Sam Brownback, senator for Kansas.
Many experts believe Mr McCain needs a conservative running mate, preferably from the south, to unify the fractured Republican base. But others argue he has most to gain from picking a fellow moderate, such as Chuck Hagel, senator for Nebraska, or Joseph Lieberman, the independent senator for Connecticut, who would reinforce his appeal among swing-voters. Another option might be Michael Bloomberg, the independent New York mayor and billionaire media tycoon, who recently ended speculation that he might make his own third-party run for president.
Senator Brownback is a conservative Catholic. He is a pro-family. One would think that would attract Catholic voters but maybe not. This block infuriates me. Why do they support divorced and remarried abortion rights activists?
“But others argue he has most to gain from picking a fellow moderate, such as Chuck Hagel, senator for Nebraska, or Joseph Lieberman, the independent senator for Connecticut, who would reinforce his appeal among swing-voters. Another option might be Michael Bloomberg, the independent New York mayor and billionaire media tycoon, who recently ended speculation that he might make his own third-party run for president.”
Many conservatives will sit home if this happens.
I agree, Chris, and I’m one of them. At the very least I’ll look at third-party candidates. So in this case, the choice of Vice-President could be very, very important.
I agree that Lieberman, Hagel, or Bloomberg would deflate Republican turnout. This must be the media’s idea of a good V.P.; not mine.
For some obvious reasons McCain needs to be quite particular in the choice of a running mate. A VP under McCain must actually be capable of taking over very effectively from ‘Day One,’ because such a Day One would be a time of some significant national trauma.
NO SENATORS, please. Especially not Brownback who isn’t even a particularly good Senator. The VP slot needs to be filled by a seasoned executive, and such executive experience matters far more than any putative political balance.
The Christian Right is finished in America at least until the next Great Awakening in two or three generations, not least because their style and attitudes make most (formerly Republican) suburbanites … gag.
The winning combination in America these days is: a) strong on defence and security, b) broad fiscal conservatism and restraint, and c) general social libertarianism.
Huckabee’s insurmountable problem outside of [url=http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2008/01/27/237-regionalism-and-religiosity/]Baptist country[/url] was that he was: a) an ignorant moralist on defence and foreign affairs, b) a tax and spend fiscal liberal, wishing to meddle in people’s economic lives, and c) a “social conservative,” wishing to meddle in people’s [i]private[/i] lives — as it were, the worst of all possible presidents.
America’s Christian Right can all stay home on election day and McCain will probably pick up more than enough other votes to make up the difference. If that happens evangelicals will find themselves unable even to [i]influence[/i] the party.
Or, alternatively, they will succeed in causing to be elected not only one of the most Hard Left politicians in over a generation, but also a filibuster-proof Democrat majority in the Senate, a massive Democrat majority in the House, and turn a great many state legislatures and governors over the a Democrat party more socialist at its core than at any time I can recall.
There is no political configuration in America that will bring back the Christian Right’s days of power in the ’80s and ’90s. That season has passed, and McCain should simply ignore it as a factor in his choice of a running mate.
He needs a strong fiscal conservative with deep executive experience — for example Forbes or Giuliani.
Bloomberg would be a disaster. He is an outspoken opponent of the 2nd Amendment and that would utterly alienate the conservative base.
Sen. McCain has alienated more than just the Christians. He also simultaneously picked a fight with the NRA and Libertarians by [i]McCain-Feingold[/i]. His stance on giving amnesty to illegal immigrants crosses generates a visceral anger with almost all Americans.
I am waiting for a third party candidate.
As for the Republicrat anger over their candidates being rejected by the conservative base and the dire warnings about the [i]evils[/i] awaiting us as “the most Hard Left politicians in over a generation” are elected along with “a filibuster-proof Democrat majority in the Senate” and “a massive Democrat majority in the House”…I guess they should have thought of that before going to war with the conservative base of the party. The Rockefeller Republicrats will lose every single time without the conservative base. Reagan conservativism appeals across party lines because of it’s socially conservative platform combined with the promise of fiscal conservativism and an unshakeable optimism in the future of America as a shining city on the hill. The neo-cons missed that last part and instead of leading the world by our example, they are attempting to create democratic nations by military might and nation building.
I think Obama will win. I wanted Ron Paul, but would have settled for Huckabee. Romney was a northeastern liberal republican trying to act like a conservative. Giuliani was an iconic New York liberal republican.
With the Federal Reserve leading us into stagflation and the Republicrats abandoning their conservative base…look forward to a long tough valley of radical liberal social policy combined with unworkable socialism and incompetent fiscal management and another international humiliation like Viet Nam. We will end up longing for the good old Carter years.
Was Reagan just a dream? The Left thinks JFK reigned over Camelot. The Right knows that we once had a Golden Era and a great champion with Reagan.
Should be:
His stance on giving amnesty to illegal immigrants crosses [b]political lines and[/b] generates a visceral anger with almost all Americans.
#7
I repeat, if you don’t vote for McCain, you’re by default giving the presidency to one of the most hard left candidates in decades. There is simply no excuse for anyone calling themselves a conservative or libertarian to take such a position. I was a Goldwater Republican and a Reagan Republican and will vote for any watered-down “moderate” Republican over a hard left Democrat any day. I have also voted for conservative Democrats over liberl Republicans at the state level. As is so often the case in politics, one must choose the lesser of the two evils.
Hagel is a fraud in so many ways–including not being a resident of Nebraska for a very long time (in any real way). He is a sad belt-way insider, to say the least. Crist has spent his political career doing anything–that’s ANYTHING it takes to move a step closer to the White House. I don’t think McCain can find anybody who will run with him who really will make a difference.
Somone suggested J.C. Watts, which would take the wind out of the sails of the Obama camp, I guess.
“The winning combination in America these days is: a) strong on defence and security, b) broad fiscal conservatism and restraint, and c) general social libertarianism.”
It’s a nice idea, but it costs too much.
Bloomberg is a phenomenal mayor. He balanced the budget afte 9/11. He listens to a wide variety of constituents and makes decisions that are good for the city. He’s not an angry blowhard like Guliani and understands how to manage. Of course, managing is much different than having an ideology. Personally, I’d rather McCain / Bloomberg over Clinton.
But what McCain shows is that most Americans do not buy the conservative view of things. We have, perhaps, three non-ideologues running. That’s pretty impressive. And it also shows how ideology has ruined our country’s economy and gotten us into a war that nobody wants to pay for.
“Three non-idealogues”? Are you kidding? Clinton and Obama are knee-jerk leftists on every hot button issue! “Non-idealogues” my foot! McCain, on the other hand IS a non-idealogue. I’d prefer a conservative in the mold of Ronald Reagan myself, but will take the loderate McCain over the leftist Democrat challengers any day.
“Non-idealogues!” Sheesh!
the best choice IMO would be Cheney. No, not Dick. Lynne.
Maybe Lynne Cheney could double up with Hilary?
#9
I disagree. The Republicrats have by default given the presidency to one of the most hard left candidates in decades because they refused to put a real conservative up for us to vote for. We had a slate of Rino’s to choose from. The Republicrat leadership thought the conservatives in the party would once again hold their collective noses and vote for their Rockefeller type nominee. They thought we would have no choice. After all, who else could we vote for? I have said it before, and I repeat…I will vote for a rock before I vote for a Rino like McCain. I don’t think I’m alone. The socially conservative values are why I used to vote for the Republicans. Since they abandoned those values and actually express their disgust for the folks from “Jesus Land”…I will not vote for their ilk again. I don’t think I am alone, either. Give me a populist any day over a corporate shill…if there are no social issues on the line. McCain is anti 2nd Amendment, pro fetal stem cell research [pro abortion], pro illegal immigration, pro globalization, pro open ended nation building. Good luck with the rest of the conservatives.
#16 is a cogent example of why the Christian Right is now largely irrelevant in American politics. Pro-fetal stem cell research is [i]not[/i] the same as “pro-abortion.” McCain’s record on abortion is quite solidly pro-life.
Even so, abortion itself is largely finished as an issue in American politics. That battle was decided in South Dakota, and we lost.
The legislature passed and the governor signed legislation that was every pro-lifer’s dream. The people of South Dakota overturned the law in a referendum, and that was in a state where over 60% of [i]women[/i] voted for Bush. Americans [i]do not want[/i] our governments interfering in what most see as a private decision.
The number of Americans in favor of a ban on all abortions except to save the life of the mother — eg ectopic pregnancy — is in the low single digits. That is not even one-quarter of registered Republicans.
Would you like to retain at least a bit of influence? Or would you rather be marginalised completely? That’s the path you’re on. I repeat: that battle is over. We lost. Deal with it.
Pro-lifers are on a fast-track to become the Right’s “Greens.” Sanctimonious, annoying, irrelevant single-issue voters.
#17
Yet, without the “sanctimonious, annoying, irrelevant single-issue” Pro-lifer voters, the Republicans can’t win. If they could, they wouldn’t be so angry that we aren’t going along with them this time.
Incidentally, I am not a single issue voter. I mentioned the 2nd ammendment, illegal immigration, etc. Don’t be patronizing.
Without us, the Republicans are doomed to powerlessness. Get used to it.