Ii is just 50 hours since the referendum result was announced. In that time, the British prime minister has resigned, there has been a coup against the leader of the Labour party (still playing out as I write), sterling has had one of its biggest one-day falls in history, the banks are starting to talk about moving jobs to Europe, and Scotland has opened the process of calling a second independence referendum.
The political turmoil was predictable and predicted in this blog. Most MPs backed the Remain case and now have to implement the Leave case. Even the Leave campaigners are balking at invoking Article 50 immediately; David Cameron reversed his position and has left the decision to his successor. That means it won’t be until October. This can be presented as tactically shrewd; there is no rush. Although the rest of the EU is pushing the UK to act immediately, it would seem as if it can’t force the pace. But it also reflects the lack of clarity in the Leave campaign about what kind of deal they want;a Norway-style approach (with continued free movement and budget contributions) or complete separation (with restricted access to the single market).
Of course, this politicking only extends the period of uncertainty that will follow the referendum result. The nature of the UK’s trading relationship with the EU will not become clear until late 2018 at the earliest.
The chaos of the first roughly 72 hours of Brexit was completely predictable. For weeks there has been a steady drumbeat that Brexit would mean The End of the World as We Know It. At least one overheated claim had it that it would lead inevitably to another European war. Now add in the shock when all the confident predictions proved in error. Whether you buy into the group think, or are certainly aware of it, the panicky behavior is inevitable.
What happens next week, next month, and next year is a separate issue.