Check all the links with the yellow “new” next to them here.
Every Province had a year over year decline.
Update from the elves:
After the 2006 ASA data came out, we created an Excel spreadsheet tracking certain key trends in ASA. You can find it here.
We’re all set to add 2007 data when it’s available. 2007 data is available now in TEC’s diocese and parish charts, only. If past years’ experience is any guide, the actual parochial data reports with hard numbers for each diocese will be available in late November, early December. We’ll keep an eye out for the new data.
For some reason I thought we were looking for Fast Facts for 2007.
Am I behind or ahead? Have I gotten my years mixed up?
It’s interesting to review the 2006 stats now that the 2007 data is available in the charts.
http://www.episcopalchurch.org/growth_60791_ENG_HTM.htm?menupage=50929
I imagine it will be another 4-6 weeks before the hard numbers (i.e. the red book data and/or fast facts) are available for 2007. But looking at 30 or 40 of the diocesan charts last night shows that the systemic decline continues.
I’ll be surprised if there are even as many 5 dioceses that had an increase in ASA in 2007. I saw a few dioceses (South Carolina one of them) barely managing to keep a nearly flat line. Most show quite noticeable ongoing declines in members & ASA (even if the graphs make the declines in ASA look small, I think the actual cumulative total will be quite significant.)
I expect we will see continued BAD news is some of these key “Fast Facts” Stats:
% of Churches Growing 10%+ in Membership (past 5 years) 30% 28% — I expect this will drop to 25% or even much less.
% of Churches Declining 10%+ in Membership (past 5 years) 39% 41%. I expect this to get up to 45-50% within the next year or two.
% of Churches Growing 10%+ in ASA (past 5 years) 22% 20% – we will probably drop further to maybe 15-17%
% of Churches Declining 10%+ in ASA (past 5 years) 50% 52% – this will get up over 55% soon, I’m guessing.
Percent of Congregations with ASA of 100 or less 63% 63% – I’m guessing this will be up to 66%, and that this
Percent of Congregations with ASA of 300 or more 6% 6% will be down to, and maybe below 5%.
Very scary numbers if you are a TEC bureaucrat.
The “new” links are a year old.
Karen B, for a while I was sending in commentaries to the liberal English blog “Thinking Anglicans” (till they banned me). It was very interesting to see how they could spin the bad numbers. “Well, Christianity isn’t a popularity contest.”, etc. But I do wonder how much longer the liberal institutionalists are going to sit quietly before there is open revolt. I think the dissenting vote in the “deposition” of Bp Duncan showed signs of discontent – not enough to sway Ms Schori from here march of folly.
Karen, au contrare regarding the bad news for TEC bureaucrats. Please note that Average Pledge is up as is Total Plate & Pledge Income (though the rate of increase seems to have slackened). Total Income is up in greater proportion than the increase in Total Expenses. Finally, Total Investments of Congregations is up.
It is true that all the membership numbers are in the toilet, but the truly important stats – $$$MONEY$$$ is just fine, thank you.
So TEC should be in good financial shape going ahead to continue sueing its declining membership right back into line.
To what extent do the 2007 data here include parishes that had, in fact, left ECUSA?
These figures show a net loss of sixty congregations. If we assume that the statistics were compiled in line with the official position that “parishes do not leave the Episcopal Church”, does this mean that between 2005 and 2006, sixty congregations were closed “through official channels”? That is a huge number of congregations to be shuttered by diocesan offices. And if that is the case, then how many more left the other way–which I guess could be called “de facto”, “illicitly”, “informally”, “extra-canonically” or “thus on to Glory”, depending on one’s perspective?
Irenaeus this is 2006 data.
2007 data is currently only available in the charts. The actual numbers and the summary are not yet compiled.
Departures have been happening for 4 years. 2006 data probably includes the VA departures. 2007 departures should include San Joaquin’s departure at the end of the year. But looking at the chart for San Joaquin, the departure of most of the diocese is not acknowledged.
Irenaeus – different dioceses are doing different things. Los Angeles seems to just keep resubmitting the same parish data year after year. Dallas took CCP’s (and other congregations) numbers off for 2006.
We don’t yet have a 2006 to 2007 comparison. Even so, the 2007 number will (properly, I believe) have the Dioceses of San Joaquin, Pittsburg, Quincy, and Fort Worth on them. DSJ didn’t leave until December 2007 and the other three have not yet left. DSJ had a ASA of about 4000, Fort Worth has about 7100, Quincy has about 1100 and Pittsburg about 7900. Let’s assume 3/4 of these dioceses actually leave, that’s about a 15,000 ASA hit.
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Phil, you are correct about different dioceses doing different things in terms of how they handle departing parishes. I just posted a similar comment over at SF.
http://www.standfirminfaith.com/index.php/site/article/16991/#289795
What is REALLY bizarre, however, that there is at least one diocese where they are inconsistent even within the diocese. Look at the links I posted in that SF comment to two departing parishes in San Diego. One is maintained as a fictional entity (St. Anne’s Oceanside) with cut & paste data from previous years. One, St. Timothy’s is shown with the majority departing.
Maybe it depends on whether the church tried to leave with its property or whether the majority just walked out the door and started fresh.
Maybe one of our San Diego readers can tell us?
It just goes to show why no one has successfully compiled a full list of “departing” parishes. There are so many permutations of what actually constitutes a “departure.” If there is a remnant TEC congregation, is it a departure? I have no sympathy for TEC’s “All is well” numbers games “only a tiny percentage of congregations have left.” It is dishonest. But it is not exactly easy to calculate how many parishes or portions of parishes have left.
By the way, while I’m at it, I do hope CANA and AMiA, etc. will take the lead and provide a godly example of transparency in numbers. It would be good to see ASA / membership reports for parishes in Common Cause. It’s not the highest priority. But I think it’s an important step in demonstrating the commitment to living in the light and being committed to truth.
I guess the big hits between 2006 and 2009 will be in numbers of congregations falling below 200 or 10 persons as the reformed or rump parishes struggle to survive. My Aunts church in New Braunsfels Texas 90% left the TEC for greener pastures – the remaining 30 persons or so are attempting to continue on.
One number not present – but interesting would be infant baptisms vs Deaths.
Chip, the RedBook Parochial data includes baptisms, confirmations, receptions & burials. Here’s the link for 2006. 2007 not yet available.
[url=http://www.episcopalchurch.org/documents/2006_Red_Book_Table_of_Statistics_by_Prov_and_Diocese.pdf]Red Book 2006[/url]
[crossposted from Stand Firm]
As I continue to look at diocesan charts, I’m actually quite struck by the uniformity. There are a very few examples of relative stability, and quite a few more examples of SHARP decline, but I’d say that something like 80-90% of the dioceses are quite consistent in pattern. There appears to be a steady decline of 12-15% of ASA since 2001, roughly 2% per year, which is pretty much what “Fast Facts 2006†has documented for 2004 – 2006.
http://www.episcopalchurch.org/documents/FAST_FACTS_for_Domestic_Dioceses_20061.pdf
We’ll know more when we have the actual parochial data numbers for 2007 from the Red Book, but for now I’ll guess that MEMBERSHIP is going to be reported around 2,110,000—or another decline of about 45,000. Membership should drop below 2,000,000 at this rate in 2009 – 2010.
ASA will probably clock in around 750,000, a decline of 15,000.
Of course, 2008 will probably break the trend of more or less steady decline, and show a very sharp declines if the departures of most of San Joaquin, Pittsburgh, Fort Worth and Quincy are accurately reflected. That would be a drop right there of about 15,000 in ASA. So, there’s no end to the slide in sight.
Growth must be used as a neutral term like acceleration such that any change is called “growth”. If this definition were used by scientists it would apply to climate change and fishery populations so that alleged increases in the former and alleged decreases in the latter would all be growth. However, applied to fisheries by an oceanographer I suspect that this “growth” would be called what it is, a decline. Stability in fishery populations with increase in non-reproducing age groups would also be a cause for serious concern regarding viability of the population and survival of the species. Perhaps the PB could elucidate this for the HOB and GC since she has the background in oceanography?
Or is that a pipe dream?
#14 Right on. Data like this is used to support the dangers of global warming. If this were happening to the wolf population, we would be hearing about it. As Terry Fullam used to say, “if the church were a business, we would think that there was something wrong.”
All, we’ve posted an update to Kendall’s post to include a link to a spreadsheet we created earlier this year tracking ASA data trends from 1992 to 2006.
http://kendallharmon.net/t19/media/ASA_Change_1992-2006.xls
It will be interesting to see what the 2007 numbers look like when they become available. I don’t think there are many growing dioceses out there.
“If this were happening to the wolf population, we would be hearing about it” —Pb [#15]
I take it you’re referring to the bigwigs at 815.
Karen B. – I’m not sure what’s going on with the San Diego numbers. Holy Trinity, which left with its property several years ago and, as far as I know, has NO remnant at all (the entire congregation stayed with the rector and is now under the Southern Cone) is showing worship attendance at around 125 and a huge increase in plate and pledge. I have no idea where the diocese is pulling these numbers.
Hopper, the trouble with charting the “no religion/agnostic/atheist” is that the no religion folks are too spiritual to bother to count, the agnostics can’t agree on the count and the atheist went from one to two, so the 100% growth rate is a little deceptive.
#20, not unlike how I remember in the early 1990s the fastest growing language on earth was Klingon.
Thanks Karen B. The Burials look light – I would expect more Episcopalians died given the average age. Infant baptisms of less than 6 per parish is bad. Only two weddings per church is even worse. Lots of folk leave becasue they marry into another church.