1. Will President Barack Obama govern as a moderate centrist or a liberal extremist? As the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, with a background seeped in far-left activism, he does not seem naturally inclined to head to the center without a looming election to force him to accommodate moderate voters. Certainly he now has every opportunity to push through the redistributive agenda he spoke about so fondly in his now-infamous 2001 radio address. He has healthy majorities in both houses of Congress and a wish list built up over eight years ”” with everything from universal health care to abolishing secret ballot union elections to the Freedom of Choice Act.
It would seem to require Herculean strength for a president, especially one relatively new to Washington and with a record of subservience to party orthodoxy, to resist the strong leftward pull. Certainly, Obama presumably wants not just one, but two terms and wants to retain that Congressional majority. And the lesson of 1994 when President Bill Clinton lost his Democratic Congressional majority remains fixed in Democrats’ memories. But it is hard to imagine, even with the financial crisis ”” and the resulting mound of debt and revenue shortfall ”” that Obama will now transform into a protector of free markets and balanced budgets and a bulwark against the phalanx of Democratic special interest groups….
What’s interesting is the uniform belief on both sides of the punditcracy that Obama’s presidency is going to be pretty activist. I think they are probably right; what it’s going to come down to is what happens when he tries something that gets the moderates excited against him. I think there is a lot of opening here for a big swingback in 2010.
Regarding her second and third points, it seems pretty clear that the Republicans are being forced to step back and reassess their core. Is being neo-con and allied with social religious conservatives a problem; or is the problem all GWB? Well, split the difference: Looking at the ballot measure results from CNN, there’s a very clear pattern: abortion has no traction as an issue, but gay marriage has a lot of traction.