Statistically, there are few surprises in the 2009 Official Catholic Directory.
The number of patients served in Catholic hospitals and the number of clients assisted by Catholic charitable agencies went up. Fewer baptisms, first Communions, confirmations and marriages were performed in Catholic churches last year. The number of Catholic parishes and elementary schools in the U.S. continues to decline.
But here and there, there are signs of hope in the statistical summary that is designed to present a snapshot of what the U.S. Catholic Church looked like on Jan. 1, 2009.
The totals for priests, permanent deacons and diocesan seminarians each experienced a small increase in the 2009 book. There were more students in Catholic colleges and universities; in private, Catholic-run high schools and elementary schools; and in high school religious education programs.
This talk of glimmers of hope is a typical case of editorial spin. All the significant indices are down: marriage (because, we may suppose, of cohabitation); baptism, first communions, confirmation and receptions. All down. The seminarian increase is not statistically significant. And against the small increase in religious order priests we set the decline in diocesan priests. Seen in this light the increase in number of Catholics by a million is questionable, unless it is people simply registering so as to be eligible for parochial school. And yet in this case I would expect baptisms to be going up as well. Baffling.
Given the Spanish migration, it’s possible a number of baptisms are taking place in Mexico, either prior to moving, or on a trip back to celebrate with the family
I’m surprised at the skepticism regarding the increase in number of Catholics. In my experience, dioceses and parishes are very attentive to accuracy in their sacramental counts–down to the number of confessions heard, so for something as concrete and discrete as baptisms and adult conversions, I would be genuinely surprised if those numbers are wrong.
I think the increase of students in Catholic colleges and universities is an uninteresting observation, because a low percentage of these students chose the institutions in question because of their Catholic affiliation and a low degree of Christian formation generally occurs in these institutions.
However, I do think that the “glimmers of hope” suggested in the article are real. The age of the parish school as the paradigm of Catholic primary education is very dead, so it is hardly a surprise that increasingly-broke dioceses and parishes are spending ever-less on them and that their numbers are falling.
It *is* interesting that the number of students in private, lay-organized and lay-run Catholic institutions is rising, if anything because it demonstrates an increased activity and sense of ownership in the Church’s mission on behalf of the laity, which was Vatican II’s desire. That is definitely a glimmer of hope.