With public hugs and backslaps among its leaders, a new political bloc was formed yesterday to challenge the global dominance of the United States.
The first summit of heads of state of the BRIC countries ”” Brazil, Russia, India and China ”” ended with a declaration calling for a “multipolar world order”, diplomatic code for a rejection of America’s position as the sole global superpower.
President Medvedev of Russia went further in a statement with his fellow leaders after the summit, saying that the BRIC countries wanted to “create the conditions for a fairer world order”. He described the meeting with President Lula da Silva of Brazil, the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, as “an historic event”.
Russia does not belong in that group. It has by far the smallest population, and absolutely moribund demographics. The only things it exports that anyone wants are energy, raw materials and weapons.
The other three are dynamic economies, and Indian demographics in particular are fantastic for at least the next 40 years; Brazil is almost as good. Chinese demos are good for the next decade and then fall apart. Russian demos fell apart 15 years ago.
That’s nice and all, I suppose. There is some economic strength in the group, quite a lot of nuclear weapons and a great deal of military numbers.
What they lack is power projection. None of the nations named can project military power any distance beyond their borders.
As to the ties that bind, you have Russia with a large, but impotent military, a shrinking population and a shrinking economy. Brazil with a minor military, a growing population (for now) and an interesting economy. India has a growing population, a growing economy and a musclebound military. China has a growing population (with a hidden demographic timebomb), a growing economy and a military that has been expanding of late.
Of course what they are doing will play well in their collective homes. And there isn’t really a downside. They are mouthing off to a superpower that is currently led by hollow men and utter incompetents. After eight years of disuse, the gringo ploy is back in play.
This all sounds so ’70s and ’80s…
[blockquote]This all sounds so ‘70s and ‘80s… [/blockquote]
Take it from a guy who lived in Brazil during the hyperinflation of the 1980s, the idea that Brazil would one day lecture the US on keeping up the value of its currency would have been met with guffaws back then.