Thomas Malthus first published his “Essay on the Principle of Population”, in which he forecast that population growth would outstrip the world’s food supply, in 1798. His timing was unfortunate, for something started happening around then which made nonsense of his ideas. As industrialisation swept through what is now the developed world, fertility fell sharply, first in France, then in Britain, then throughout Europe and America. When people got richer, families got smaller; and as families got smaller, people got richer.
Now, something similar is happening in developing countries. Fertility is falling and families are shrinking in places”” such as Brazil, Indonesia, and even parts of India””that people think of as teeming with children. As our briefing shows, the fertility rate of half the world is now 2.1 or less””the magic number that is consistent with a stable population and is usually called “the replacement rate of fertility”. Sometime between 2020 and 2050 the world’s fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate.
Ho-ho-ho, conservatives: think again. You imagine that those young, fertile populations of the Global South, which maintain traditional sex roles, where women’s lives center around the family under benign male headship and there’s always room for another child at the table, are the future of the Church? Think again.
You imagine that decadent secular liberals in “old Europe” and the liberal American upper middle class will die out and that things will revert to the state of affairs you imagine is natural and desirable–a society of “traditional families”? You think churches will be able to capitalize on that? Doesn’t seem likely.
The economic emergence of women is a global phenomenon. Birth rates will decline, poor countries will get rich (and poor immigrants will assimilate) and modernity will prevail. And with it secularism–unless churches disassociate themselves from the conservative social agenda that’s enjoying temporary success in the Global South, amongst immigrants in Europe and within the socially conservative American working class.
That’s OK, guru. I’ll bet on the One who makes the wisdom of the world seem foolish. You can bet on whatever trends catch your fancy.
It is written:
God blessed them and said, “Be fruitful and increase in number and fill the water in the seas, and let the birds increase on the earth.” Genesis 1:22
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God blessed them and said to them, “Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air and over every living creature that moves on the ground.” Genesis 1:28
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Then God blessed Noah and his sons, saying to them, “Be fruitful and increase in number and fill the earth. Genesis 9:1
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As for you, be fruitful and increase in number; multiply on the earth and increase upon it.” Genesis 9:7
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And God said to him, “I am God Almighty; be fruitful and increase in number. A nation and a community of nations will come from you, and kings will come from your body. Genesis 35:11
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Sons are a heritage from the LORD,
children a reward from him.
Like arrows in the hands of a warrior
are sons born in one’s youth.
Blessed is the man
whose quiver is full of them.
They will not be put to shame
when they contend with their enemies in the gate.
Psalm 127:3-5
Having 3 children per family is considered “replacement” a birth rate.
#1 I, and possibly you, probably won’t be alive in thirty years time to witness the seismic shift that is already taking place in Europe’s demography. Westen Europe’s future is Turkish and Arab.
Russia’s future is probably Turkic and Chinese (lots of empty Siberia out there, lots of resources for China). The future belongs to those who show up for it. I think Leonard Cohen got this one right: ‘I’ve seen the future and it’s murder.’
Azusa: “Westen Europe’s future is Turkish and Arab.”
Do you know enough about Western Europe to be able to 1) find it on a map; 2) make such a silly statement?
Fr Mark,
I don’t think that was particularly charitable. I suspect that Azusa has read or is aware of the contents of one or more of the following books written on that very subject:
America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It ~ Mark Steyn
While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within ~ Bruce Bawer
Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis ~ Bat Ye’Or
I found Azusa’s comment to be a valid expression of concern for the outcome of ill advised Western acceptance of population control. It isn’t Caucasian Europe that is at the heart of population explosions. No, for that you will need to turn your gaze to China, India, and Africa. Yet, population control schemes seem frequently directed toward those of European descent. I wonder why?
Sick and Tired: I think anyone reading Mark Steyn will certainly be unable to find Europe on a map!
Perhaps I was a little sharp, but one gets so fed up with a certain type of Americans coming out with sweeping condemnatory judgements about foreign societies of which they understand so little!