The average age of people enrolled in the seminaries associated with the Episcopal Church continues to range from the high 30s to the mid 40s.
Episcopal News Service contacted all 11 seminaries this fall, asking them for specific information about their incoming classes, as well as their student bodies as a whole. Not all of the information requested is compiled in the same way from seminary to seminary, and thus apples-to-apples comparisons are not always possible.
It is also worth noting that most seminaries now offer degree and certificate programs beyond the traditional Master of Divinity degree sought by most people in the ordination process.
Most seminaries showed enrollments ranging near to what they had experienced in recent years. Whether male or female students form the majority varies from seminary to seminary.
To seminarians: During seminary, don’t run up debts more than, say a $20 on a pizza on a credit card for your entire three years because you ain’t getting a job when you get out.
There was an article a few months back here on the oversupply of priests that is already the case in the present. I believe the figure was that there is 150 lay members for each clergy whereas 20 or 30 years ago there was 300. Now the laity is fleeing at 2-3% per year. New seminarians, you are simply not needed.
Signed,
Cold hard truth
From a certain angle, the key metric is a) how many are going for M.Div.’s, and b) how old are those? With seminaries branching out into new territory to maintain student counts and fee/tuition income, you can say “we’re up” or “we’re growing” or “we’re younger” (or even “we’re more diverse”), but if much of that shift is embedded in students who have no intention of working in a congregational setting — and a fair number of M.Div. students will answer “no” to that question as well — then you actually aren’t seeing news that’s good or even useful for The Church as a whole.
To some degree, i suspect that the pro forma “apples to apples” warning masks the fact that the simple request — “how many students are on M.Div. ordination track, and what are their ages/genders” could have been made, instead of taking what the seminaries offered. You have to want to hear the facts in order to get them. In mainline/oldline seminaries generally, the numbers are trumpeted “Up!” but any study that asks “do you intend to work in a congregational setting” over the last ten+ years gets amazingly small numbers.
Then, go out three years post-graduation/ordination, and find out how many are still in congregational service. Aiaiaiaiaieeeee.
So we can be flooded with “clergy,” but not have enough “pastoral candidates,” and that’s true all over the country.
“With seminaries branching out into new territory to maintain student counts and fee/tuition income…”
When I went to seminary in 1976, there were plenty of non-ordination-track students there, working for what was called at the time an MTS (I think it’s an MA now). This is not some new sign of desperation as a result of the church wars. In any case, name one educational institution — churchy or not — that hasn’t spent the last 30 years developing new revenue streams.
A few years ago, our Deployment Officer said that there was actually a clergy shortage. I think that the shortage of which she spoke comes from two things: 1) fewer MDiv’s going into pastoral ministry, and 2) the higher average age of clergy means that they serve for 15-20 years instead of 35-40, and so pass through their career much more speedily.
There is no shortage for clergy who want to serve in a suburban parish of 125-175 ASA, of course….
When I was in seminary (I graduated in June), a majority of my class were people under 30 with some 2nd career folks thrown in the mix. I think the trend has been to encourage younger people to get into the ordination process. There for a while, it was fashionable to tell people right out of college that they needed a few years of “real world experience.” Then they wondered why only angry middle aged white women were ending up in seminaries.
Are there any seminaries (Anglican/episcopal) that cater for some kind of distance education?
Thanks
I’m curious, why does TEC have 11 seminaries, when the LCMS ( a similar sized body) does just fine with 2? Is this part of the problem with TEC?
I wish Trinity had provided the statistics, they would be interesting to compare.
Our retired bishop told me a year ago that there is a clergy shortage, but that it affected mostly rural parishes that can’t afford a full-time stipendiary anyway. No surprise.
“I wish Trinity had provided the statistics, they would be interesting to compare.”
Ditto. How ’bout it, TSM folk?
“For a while, it was fashionable to tell people right out of college that they needed a few years of ‘real world experience.’ Then they wondered why only angry middle aged white women were ending up in seminaries” —Archer of the Forest
In principle I have some sympathy for encouraging applicants to work for a few years between college and seminary (what I’ll for brevity call a “work expectation”). But if the Archer is correct, it’s interesting to consider the extent to which such a work expectation—however well-intentioned—may have contributed to ECUSA’s lurch towards the feminist left.
The work expectation did not (as I understand it) have a theologically or politically leftish motivation. On the contrary, it was partly a response to concerns about clergy who had gone straight from college to seminary to maintain draft deferment or because they couldn’t think of something better to do. Waiting a few years was supposed to promote maturity and more solid discernment of vocation.
But as for unintended consequences . . . the Archer makes a very plausible point.
The problem is not clergy shortage, but a shortage of clergy willing to go where they are needed. We have too many clergy that are only interested in serving in urban/suburban areas and aren’t interested in serving where the pay may be less, but the need is greater. We also are facing a series of declining parishes that cannot afford full time clergy as well as dioceses that are financially strained so they cannot help these parishes recruit clergy. According to the latest statistics, 63% of TECUSA congregations have ASA of 100 or less and 273 congregations (3.85%) have ASA < 10. From 2005 to 2006, the median ASA declined from 74 to 72. I suspect that in 2007 we will see fewer congregations and a higher percentage (about 67) with ASA <= 100. YBIC, Phil Snyder
Sure wish there were more coming through Nashotah.
It’s a little hard to make sense of the statistics about parish size, considering that the “everybody needs a parish” style of church planting means that there are always going to be a lot of small parishes. Conversely, the tendency for suburban parishes to grow rather than split also holds the median down.
It’s most revealing to look at the VTS numbers because they break out the ages in more detail. And to elaborate on what Phil Snyder says, there are three other factors that are helping to create a shortage. First, there’s the boomer pig in the python: simply on the basis of age there are starting to be a disproportionate number of retirees now. But another aspect is the shift to older ordinations (which for a time was very heavily pushed). This, I think, helps create the other two factors. People who are ordained later cannot serve as long, and therefore it becomes necessary to ordain more priests simply to keep up. The boomer surplus helped to compensate for this, but no more. The last factor is that I suspect that people who are ordained at older ages may simply be more unwilling to take rural and other marginal posts, being more set in their ways. And they may be tied down by being supported by spouses whose jobs are not so portable.
I know when I was 26 and sought to go to seminary I was told to wait 30 years, and then go, that “we tend to not send anyone under 50.”
Nashotah has a distance learning program that includes a small residential component with each unit. Details at http://www.nashotah.edu
There was an article a few months back here on the oversupply of priests that is already the case in the present. I believe the figure was that there is 150 lay members for each clergy whereas 20 or 30 years ago there was 300. Now the laity is fleeing at 2-3% per year. New seminarians, you are simply not needed.
If we were to say there were 150 clergy per person in TEC and accept that there were 1.7M members (no one can agree on a number, as far as I can tell) that would mean there would be roughly 11.3K clergy…
In 1994, when the Episcopal Church had 2.5 million members and 7,413 churches, it had 14,645 clergy, 170 members per cleric.
In 2005, they now have 2.2 million members and 7,155 churches, and we have 17,817 clergy, or 122 members per cleric.
Of those 17,817 clergy, 4,607 are women. As of 2005 that now equals 25.85%
Interestingly presbyteral ordinations have almost achieved parity with a 52/48% (male/female) split as of the numbers available in 2006 from Episcopal.org
1998 13.80%
2001 20.34%
2005 25.85%
Interestingly, those numbers are darn near identical to the Evangelical Lutheran Church – with whom TEC is in communion:
1999 13.50%
2005 25.23%
Now those numbers are from 2005. Since 2005…
Then TEC elected and consecrated V. Gene Robinson (openly practicing homosexuality after a divorce from his wife the mother of his children) as a bishop….
….and elected Dr. Katherine Jeffords Schori (an ex-Catholic) as Prime Bishop.
Since 2006 at least 3 openly gay, non-celibate candidates have vied for other bishop of the TEC Diocese of California Michael Barlowe, Robert Taylor & Bonnie Perry of Chicago. All of them lost, but Barlowe was in the running again for the bishop’s gig in Newark, NJ for a second loss.
So 25.85% of total clergy is the 2005 number before those fiascos.
The new numbers? Who wants to guess?
Sorting through the numbers isn’t easy… There are lies, damned lies, statistics and then ecclesial statistics! But the chances are, that today the ratio of clergy to active members is much closer to 1:50.
(see http://www.virtueonline.org/portal/modules/news/article.php?storyid=2610)
PECUSA (as it was then called) had 3,615,643 in the year 1965 when the population of the US was 194,302,963 or 1.86% of the population. Had those numbers remained constant with population growth, there would be 5.58M Episcoplalians today.
A more vexing and probably far more important number to consider over the ASA, Women’s ordination, ordinand age or seminary attendence is one you seldome hear: Birthrates.
How many infant baptisms?
Without babies you are left with a church chock-full-o’ middle-aged second career clergy women and elderly clerics in small chapels with more people at the altar than coming to it.
When the last laymen dies, they are going to get one hell of a funeral.
Re: Trinity Seminary
There were about 30 students in the incoming class. Most are M. Div students but not all.
Trinity also has distance learning.
#1 It is certainly a good idea not to run up debts; however, I don’t think graduates are having trouble finding jobs. The jobs may not be the traditional Episcopal positions but rather church plants or something similar and adventuresome. I don’t think your pessimism is the current reality though. And I hope, as I think is the case, that seminarians are not in it for a guaranteed salary and career track. That is what most of us left to come to seminary.
Best I can tell: Bexley Hall in Rochester, NY has 13 total students; 2 in the MA program, 6 in the MDiv program, and 5 not in degree programs. There were no new students admitted this fall. (This based only on what I see and is NOT from any authority from the seminary.)
Michele
Michele
#17: ” And I hope, as I think is the case, that seminarians are not in it for a guaranteed salary and career track. That is what most of us left to come to seminary. “
No one would or should be expecting to get rich, but I would think it is reasonable to expect one can focus the whole of their efforts on ministry. It may, however be the case that the future model of TEC clergy is to see more of a part-time model of ministry to significantly smaller congregations. Time will tell.
19. I think most of us at Trinity hope to enter ministry full-time and I also think we are confident in the existence of opportunities although they may not follow the traditional model for some. I know it is an anxious and testing time for many. In my class of about 30 I think only 6 are from Episcopal Dioceses (sp?) following the formal discernment process that should lead to ordination in the Episcopal Church.
Bexley has moved mostly to Ohio although they still have a Rochester presence. It looks from the mailings I receive from them that they are in the midst a slow death and are about on life support right now
As for Trinity grads, there are large and small growing evangelical congregations that would love to have an evangelical pastor. I believe the future is bright for Trinity (and Nashotah) grads.
Dear Folks,
I’m at home and so don’t have the exact stats, but #17 is correct – Trinity has about 30 in the incoming class. This is similar to last year, but down from each of the 3 previous in which we had about 60 per year. We are now back to pre Gene Robinson levels (for some reason a lot of people started to come to Trinity in 2003…). We have reflected a lot on the lower #s and we are guessing that there are multiple reasons for the recent decline: (1) the chaos in the church (are Rectors recommending that people go to seminary at the moment?); (2) the multiplicity of Anglican studies programs in non-Anglican seminaries (at least half of the Anglican ordinands in the US study in non-Anglican seminaries – please note – going to a non-Anglican seminary may be convenient and informative, but it will not be very ‘formational’ – and, of course, it’s a good way to damage Trinity and Nashotah); and (3) the welcome resurgence of Nashotah House.
Yes, Trinity has lots of online offerings and interterm offerings: see http://www.tesm.edu
Interestingly, many of our recent students are younger than in past years.
Grant LeMarquand
Trinity’s Academic Dean