The National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines when the country is in recession, defines it as a “significant” decrease in economic activity over a sustained period of time. Typically, a recession is marked by two successive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product, but not always. (GDP is the value of all goods and services a country produces in a given period of time.) The bureau considers a wide range of fiscal barometers, including payrolls, productions, sales and incomes. Because much of this data takes months to compile, the country is often in the midst of a recession, or even past it, before the condition is diagnosed.
The economy carries our dreams like a jumbo jet, a complicated and critical vehicle of cause and effect.
Executives scan its indicators like pilots on a flight deck, looking for favorable winds and smooth swaths of air. Federal bankers and policymakers fuss over its engines and machinery like grease-smeared mechanics, constantly tweaking and tuning. The rest of us hang on and hope for the best; when it plummets, with it go our lives, our futures.
After years of calm climbing, the U.S. economy is hitting some bumpy air and starting to sputter. Though the view is still cloudy and many indicators show that all’s well, most experts are predicting a “slowdown” if not a swoop into recession.