Greece’s prime minister has put his political clout behind the “no” camp in a referendum to decide whether the country should accept the terms of an international bailout. But the people appear to be evenly split on the issue, according to two new opinion polls.
One survey, conducted by the respected ALCO institute just 48 hours before the referendum that could decide Greece’s economic fate and future in the eurozone, gives the “yes” camp 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the “no” side, according to Reuters.
But a second poll, conducted by Public Issue and published in the ruling party’s newspaper, reports a 0.5-percentage-point lead for those opposed to the bailout.
If you folks are baffled, welcome to the club. My best understanding is:
A YES vote will:
1) say yes to a deal that is no longer available,ie it has been traken off the table by the men in suits in Frankfurt and Brussels;
2) lead to the resignation of the Greek government and to another election which will elect …. who?? More uncertainty, then. More time lost. More damage to economic confidence.
3) If the YES deal is in fact approved by the men in suits and is implemented it will further damage the Greek economy with corporate taxes that will inhibit growth, thus causing the fiscus to decline and making the country even more unable to pay its debts.
It would, however, lead to more loans which would pump liquidity into the system. How those loans could be paid back is another question.
A NO vote will:
1) Send the Prime Minister back to the IMF and European Bank who have already said that they will not offer another deal.
2) Mean that Greece runs out of its national currency, the Euro. No more loans will be forthcoming. Everything will grind to a halt.
3) A no vote would pose the question: Can a bankrupt country remain in the Eurozone The answer would seem to be no, and to leave the Euro and go back to the Drachma, but the Prime Minister, who is campaigning vigorously for a NO vote, saying that it is a vote to stay in the Euro.
As they say in Peoria, go figure.
The lack of leadership at the European level is depressing, as is the Greek inability to face reality.
Is there a religious angle? The Greek Orthodox Church has been in the forefront of helping the poor and struggling. On the other hand it is a large landowner and there are voices on the left demanding confiscation of its properties.