The Church of England is facing at least another 30 years of decline according to internal projections revealed for the first time.
Even if it sees an influx of young people to services, the sheer numbers of older worshippers dying in the next few decades mean it is unlikely to see any overall growth in attendances until the middle of this century, officials now believe.
The stark calculations were revealed during discussions at the Church’s decision-making General Synod, which has been meeting in London, about ambitious plans to tackle declining numbers.
It is preparing to pump £72 million into a “reform and renewal” drive which includes plans to ordain 6,000 more clergy in the 2020s to build a younger priesthood which is less male dominated and less white.
………
Mr Spence, chairman of the Church’s finance committee, said that current attendance figures suggest that an 81-year-old is now eight times more likely to attend services than an 18-year-old.
Currently around 18 in every 1,000 people in England regularly attend Church of England services ”“ a figure which includes mid-week and other special services.
But Mr Spence said that in 30 years time that proportion is likely to drop to 10 in every 1,000 ”“ or one per cent.
That rate of decline suggests that attendance at Sunday services across the whole of England would dip to just 425,000.
Recent figures published by the Church showed that Sunday morning congregations stood at 764,700, with total weekly attendances ”“ which include week-day services – just slipping below one million.
Mr Spence said that “on all likely measures of success” the demographic reality meant that the Church is unlikely to see net growth in the next 30 years.
Looks like a big problem to me.
I think that these figures pose two awkward questions:
1. If the vast majority of the population never cross the threshold of the Church of England, in what sense is it the national church?
2. If the Church of England is unable to evangelise the country, who will take up the slack?
The next largest church is the Catholic Church, and its Sunday attendance (although also declining, especially in the North) is now larger than that of the C of E – about 30% of Catholics attend Mass fairly regularly. However there is a serious personnel issue for RCs. Ordinations to the diocesan priesthood were, 50 years ago, in the region of 230 annually. Now they struggle to reach 50, and are not even at replacement level. See:
http://www.lms.org.uk/resources/statistics-from-the-catholic-directory
The Methodist Church? A spent force, unfortunately. The Baptists and the United Reformed Church are a marginal presence, especially in the inner cities.
#2 OK Father Tee, I’ll bite
If the vast majority of the population never cross the threshold of the Church of England, in what sense is it the national church?
In much the same way as I have heard Catholics say that their young people while not going to church, are still ‘catholic’ and their return is awaited at some future point. Lapse does not necessarily mean not potentially engaged.
The same is true of those who were educated in CofE Schools, married or taken by parents or grandparents to their churches. Sometimes it is a journey that people take at different stages of their lives. Though I have to admit the primary problem is with us in the church. If we do not know what we believe and why they should come to church, why should we imagine that they should?
If the Church of England is unable to evangelise the country, who will take up the slack?
The Methodists and some of the reformed old churches are in even bigger trouble than the CofE, or the Catholic church for that matter [although the latter has been boosted by immigration, as I know from my visits to them when I meet the whole world in one parish].
I still think that the evangelisation of England may come from the Church of England [and perhaps the Catholic church if it is so minded not to just rely on those coming to it]. The truth is that for most protestant denominations, less so the RC Church, people have less brand loyalty than they did. People go where they are fed, and I know people who will go to the church which is performing wherever they are. Hence at church I come across people who started Methodist, or Pentecostal or even Catholic.
One hears the same story from the US, where as a number of people have noted, the growth in ACNA is coming from those who have never been Anglicans, but who find it attractive.
It all comes down to whether the church is grounded, whether it is anchored upon the cornerstone, whether the centre holds.
Someone recently claimed that the centre is holding. Would that it were. We won’t be in a position to evangelise until we build upon the cornerstone and the centre is seen to be holding. But sadly there is absolutely no sign of that in our leadership. And for that matter I see the RC leadership wobbling too, but perhaps it is too early to say whether that is going to turn into a serious issue, or is down to teething problems and poor communication.
I think we are all going to go through a lot more uncertainty before there is much chance of any of our churches being fit to reevangelise England, but that still remains my hope and conviction in all this. Revival will come with us, if anywhere, if we anchor ourselves in Christ and let Him be our foundation.
PM it mystifies me that the C of E is in the trouble it is in. I know that you and I disagree on the established status, but I have always wondered if it might be a serious problem in so far as it makes the church a venerable public body in the eyes of the population. And here is my real opinion of the C of E: dignified liturgy, real pastoral care, involvement in the life of the wider community. Yes, there are the uncertainties and vaguenesses on doctrine. And yet: it among us as one who serves, and I remain amazed that there is not a greater response to what it offers. More than amazed: troubled. Does it say something, I wonder uneasily, about the English soul?
#4 Fr Tee, I think you make a very profound set of points. In reverse order:
I remain amazed that there is not a greater response to what it offers. More than amazed: troubled. Does it say something, I wonder uneasily, about the English soul?
I actually think the English are a profoundly spiritual and more importantly spiritually hungry people. You can see that in the racks of books on ‘spirituality’ in the bookshops, in fiction, in the media. That does not translate into an interest in bibles and books on Christianity, which gather dust on the shelves. Instead there is a search for inner self, angels, the Goddess, divination, romantic vampires, and Eastern wisdom, Buddhism and so on.
It never occurs to people that perhaps the authentic experience and reality is right under their noses, in Christ. Instead they will chase up one blind alley after another, oblivious to what is right under their noses. The Holy Spirit and the living God are our secret we keep to ourselves, and will talk about anything but the possibility that He is real, alive and looking for them.
Yes, there are the uncertainties and vaguenesses on doctrine.
Nicely understated, but if we don’t know what we believe, if we just offer to accompany people on their journey, through a sea of uncertainty, why should they believe our path has anything to offer? Any destination? Any point? If our priests do not know who God is or where he is to be found, why should anyone trust them as their guide or get out of bed on Sunday morning to go to church?
Why is that? Well I think that is down to us. We just do not tell them.
The success of things like Alpha I think is that they expicitly set out to answer the important questions in life, and offer the opportunity and the promise of finding God for those who are willing to search; in accordance with God’s promises.
And here is my real opinion of the C of E: dignified liturgy, real pastoral care, involvement in the life of the wider community.
Well, the same can be said of the Royal British legion and Rotary. Yes there are the foodbanks, the debt advice schemes, and the remembrance day events, but we give no hint that there is any more to our faith.
I know that you and I disagree on the established status, but I have always wondered if it might be a serious problem in so far as it makes the church a venerable public body in the eyes of the population.
There are pros and cons. For me the established status is a plus, as it means that people are culturally open to the church in the same way as a Greek IS Orthodox, as is a Russian. It is part of who they are and they feel it. For the evangelist, it means that they are dealing not with an open door, but with a population with one foot in the door.
The downside is of familiarity, or of perceived familiarity. The populace think that they understand what ‘their church’ is and believes. It has a God who will reward them if they are good or try to live a good life without harming others, even if they do not go to church or bother much with him. He is tame and unknowable, and if He exists at all, He would cramp their style and turn them into the badly dressed and anxious, not to mention opinionated on all subjects Christians they think we are. They do not bother, because they think they know all about the church and what we believe, and we do little to disabuse them.
The thing which has improved over the last 40 years is that a younger generation is less familiar with the church and the negative perceptions their elders grew up with from church attendance and from school. They are more of a blank slate to work with.
It is not the fault of the English that they have little interest in the Church of England [or the Catholic Church for that matter]. We have lost our way and abandoned our mission statement. We have inherited momentum, but there is no one driving or steering. We take little interest in the population, other than offering a social club and lots of pastoral care, but we do not satisfy or offer any answers to their spiritual hunger.
The problems lies with us, and until we remember again the things we once were told and believe them, rather than chasing every contemporary fashion and cause, the English will not understand, nor be attracted in. Christ is what attracts [and repels] and until we place him in charge, we will just be a nice fluffy, pastoral, but taken for granted ‘venerable public body.’
It is not rocket science – give up the promotion of immorality, the worship of uncertainty, the boxing in of Christ – and follow the lead of Nairobi, Singapore, Abuja, and those parts of the Communion where God is welcomed and blesses His church. He is a gentleman and only comes where He is invited and welcomed.
PM it mystifies me that the C of E is in the trouble it is in.
It mystifies me that we are not in worse trouble. That gives me hope that some parts of the church are working and an encouragement in spite of some other parts of the church and its leadership – but it is an uphill struggle among the lost and the aimless, and that is just those within it.