John Green is is senior fellow for religion and American Politics for the Pew Center and one of the absolute top analysts of how religion affects American politics. Less than 9 hours after his first look at the exit poll data late late Tuesday night, he was back on the phone talking to reporters. Iron man!
His take: Comparing the 2004 election to 2008, the biggest shifts were in turnout of blacks, Hispanics and other minorities, and the margins of support for Obama versus Kerry. Ditto about younger voters. So while the exit polls do show shifts within various religious divisions, those changes may be tied directly to those changes in cultural/age/race voting. For instance, younger voters tend to lean to the Democrats, even within otherwise Republican groups. So a modest shift in the white evangelical vote — 3-5% more voted for Obama compared with Kerry 2004 — might be tied more to a higher youth turnout rather than formerly GOP voters going for Obama.
Read the whole thing.
John Green of Pew looks at the effect of religion on the election
John Green is is senior fellow for religion and American Politics for the Pew Center and one of the absolute top analysts of how religion affects American politics. Less than 9 hours after his first look at the exit poll data late late Tuesday night, he was back on the phone talking to reporters. Iron man!
His take: Comparing the 2004 election to 2008, the biggest shifts were in turnout of blacks, Hispanics and other minorities, and the margins of support for Obama versus Kerry. Ditto about younger voters. So while the exit polls do show shifts within various religious divisions, those changes may be tied directly to those changes in cultural/age/race voting. For instance, younger voters tend to lean to the Democrats, even within otherwise Republican groups. So a modest shift in the white evangelical vote — 3-5% more voted for Obama compared with Kerry 2004 — might be tied more to a higher youth turnout rather than formerly GOP voters going for Obama.
Read the whole thing.