Divergent Views on Signs of Life in the Economy

Manufacturing expanded in the United States in December, the fifth straight month of gains, amplifying hopes that a job market hobbled by double-digit unemployment might finally be adding paychecks. New jobless claims slipped markedly last week. Some economists think data to be released on Friday will show the economy gained jobs in December, the first monthly net increase in two years.

“We’re really coming back,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at the research firm Decision Economics. “The expansion is picking up the pace….”

But many economists remain worried that momentum could soon weaken, with the economy sliding back into glum times.

Indeed, the only area in which economists can reliably declare expansion is in the supply of competing narratives about the economy ”” perhaps to be expected in any transition between downturn and the inevitable turn for better.

“That is always the nature of the boomlet after recession,” Mr. Sinai said. “People think it’s going to fade away.”

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