The Latest from Intrade on the Health Care Bill Passing
29 comments on “The Latest from Intrade on the Health Care Bill Passing”
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Those numbers look pretty realistic to me. It pains me to say it but I think the Dems have figured out that they are gonna take a shellacking no matter what they do this fall. The GOP smells blood in the water and the sharks are circling. Recent polls show moderates and independents leaning Republican.
The Dems are figuring (I believe correctly) that the only thing they have left is their base. If they fail to pass a major health care bill their base will desert them in disgust. The Dems are probably figuring that they can take beating this year and maybe bounce back in 2012 versus alienate their base (as they did in 1994 when they failed to pass reform) and face oblivion and another decade or more in the minority.
One other point worth considering is that if/when this thing is passed it will be signed by Obama into law. And then its a done deal. The GOP will never be able to repeal it. The best that the Republicans will be able to do is maybe throw in some fixes after the fact. But I don’t see them getting the kind of super-majority they would need to repeal it or strip it down to meaninglessness.
My money is on them passing it.
And it will mark the end game of this Republic.
Amen, Br Michael, amen.
desert padre
I wonder if political organizations spend money buying InTrade stock in order to affect public perception of issues. Has InTrade gotten well known enough for that yet?
They don’t have the votes right now. It’s touch and go. Actually, it could be repealed in 2013 with Obama out of the White House, a Republican in, and a Republican super majority in the Senate. People might just be furious enough to manage that.
Democrats are taking a huge risk. This legislation will raise taxes and costs, but no insurance changes will come until 2013. They can’t get elected with only their base; they can’t get elected without it, but they also need independents.
My guess is after this the Dems next move will be making millions of illegals legal in time to vote Democrat to ensure Obama the next victory, or they will just cheat some more.
Well, 31 million more people who have health care might then decide to vote to keep what they have.
Why is it “Obamacare?” Anyway, I’ll be proud, and pretty amazed, that it passed. The alternative – which is making hundreds of thousands of people bankrupt – is still worse.
Lots of people complained about the 1993 budget, which ushered in years of fiscal responsibility. We ended the Clinton years with a surplus and lots of industry. “Obamacare” will be better for the country, small businesses, and even big businesses.
John,
By the next presidential election, no more people will be covered by this fiasco of health insurance “reform” than are covered now. That actual “benefits” don’t kick in until 2013, while the taxes and pain start as soon as the law is passed and signed. So, we will face two years of increased taxes with nothing to show for it. All this is just so the CBO can say that the 10 year forcast does not cause the debt to increase.
If congress can pass a law by simply “deeming it passed” (the Slaughter Solution) and not voting on the actual legislation, why can’t I simply deem my taxes to have been paid without actually paying them?
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Obamacare has nothing to do with healthcare. It has everything to do with transforming the United States to become just another European Socialist worker’s paradise.
I am no great fan of this plan. But I have to say that the hysterical shrieks of “SOCIALISM!” and “COMMUNISM!” and other mindless clap trap are really starting to wear on me. There is enough that’s bad about this bill that we don’t need to be resorting to lies distortions and hysterical soundbites. And yes the GOP and their masters in the Health Insurance Cartel have been guilty of all of those things.
History is not gong to be kind in its judgment of the people on either side of this debate.
As for Europe, I wold be overjoyed if we could adopt a slightly modified form of the system used in Switzerland. All private insurance strictly regulated by the government with people free to choose the plan best for them as long as they do have insurance. The government runs neither the hospitals nor the insurance firms (although all are closely regulated) and subsidies are provided to the poor to help cover insurance.
The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. See here for the wonderful way Social Security excesses have been had!
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=527360
There is a track record. It is not good.
My question is this, why doesn’t Obama stick to his promise of an up or down vote on health care? We now have the “deemed to have been voted on” run around with student loan reform back room deal added on to this monstrosity..if Obama had any standards he would call Pelosi on this..I’ll wait..just another promise broken to promote hope, change and ethical government..
[blockquote] My question is this, why doesn’t Obama stick to his promise of an up or down vote on health care? [/blockquote]
There is going to be an up or down vote in the House. It may be worded a bit differently than normal by necessity but there will be an up or down vote that will either pass or kill the health care bill.
Sadly that’s more than can be said of the Republicans, who have apparently resolved to overthrow democratic rule in favor of requiring a super-majority to accomplish anything in the Senate. When you ask these pointed questions of the Republicans and their masters in the Health Insurance Cartel you are more likely to be taken seriously.
For the record, I am opposed to the current bill. But I am appalled and disgusted by the blatant hypocrisy the GOP has demonstrated throughout most of this affair. I long ago lost any naive sentiments I may have had about how Washington works. But the level of distortions, fabrications and outright lies that have been emanating from the GOP over the last year are beyond anything I can recall since the Democrat’s shameful treatment of judge Bork.
I will probably either stay home this fall or vote libertarian. My vote is not that important. But FWIW the GOP has lost it through their dishonorable conduct.
Ad Orientem There may be an up or down vote on Health care or maybe an up or down vote on a rule change that includes a proceedure that rules the health care bill was deemed as passed with out a vote being given or there may be an up and down vote on health care with student loan modification law included we will wait and see but two out of three options being floated by Pelosi are not up and down votes on the health care bill only..the filibuster has been used by Democrates and Republicans and Republicans lamented it as much as you do when the Republicans controlled the Senate, those are the rules and if you don’t like the rules don’t play the game…The Democrates had a filibuster proof majority and could not pass it because of thier own party so please don’t lay the blame at the feet of the Republicans ( the people gave Ted Kenndy’s old seat to a Republican to allow a filibuster of this monstrosity)..
Dave and Phil,
Admittedly, I admit a bit of skepticism that the media understands “deem and pass.” It’s also a tactic that the Republicans have used as well to further their own agenda. The Supreme Court has indicated it’s fine. Politics is a rough sport, and Republicans aren’t the only ones allowed to play it.
But I admit, it tends to reveal how cowardly the Democrats are and the hypocrisy of both parties.
Dave does have a point about Massachusetts. I admit I’m perplexed with the irony that they love their state wide insurance, but don’t want to see it applied nationally.
Phil, you’re right about insuring most of the 31 million. But a few things would happen immediately. $5 billion into high-risk insurance pools run by the states to provide coverage to those in frail health (that also helps states keep their own taxes low). The premiums should be much lower than what’s charged by private insurers willing to take those in poor health.
Insurers would be prohibited from placing lifetime dollar limits on coverage and from canceling policies except in cases of fraud. Children could stay on their parents’ coverage until age 26. For a 22 year old woman in my congregation who had cancer when she was 14, that’s really important.
Louise Slaughter is a wonderful person, and a faithful Episcopalian.
Liberal Louise Slaughter (my former rep. and that is her moniker locally) has no shame in pushing something as blatantly unconstitutional (at least in the eyes of Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Roberts and Alito) as this motion to deemed the bill have passed in lieu of actually passing it. And that she is a Rochester NY Episcopalian tells us sadly that she likely sees the bible much like the constitution – it is what what she says it is.
Interestingly, since Kendall posted this yesterday betting has taken a nosedive that it will pass: http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=709242
I think it is going down in a blaze of glory – the passion in this battle is with those who don’t want it. And the Dems will still suffer in November for their craven maneuverings (and unemployment).
RE: “Louise Slaughter is a wonderful person, and a faithful Episcopalian.”
Wow — color me unsurprised. Just classic. What a disgraceful woman.
To the contents of the thread in general, it’s hard for me to think of anything good that will come of this.
1) All those with health insurance will have the costs go up.
2) Our supply will, of course, go down — massive physician shortage.
3) And we’ll receive more taxes.
Now — for the collectivists, those are all good things.
4) Maybe a bunch of super-collectivists will get voted out, and I guess that’s nice.
5) But the key thing to remember — and the reason for the DemoKazi behavior — is that the collectivist Democrats are betting the farm on achieving their Big Goal [another portion of the economy controlled and “managed” [sic] by the State], and the cowardly, unprincipled, Republicans being entirely unwilling to overturn the bill.
I think they’re right.
I think the State-controlled healthcare system is here to stay. And it’ll be just like the horrendous State-controlled public school system — lots of bandaids, year by year, to cover over the open-rotting wound of utter failure and incompetence.
Gawain, this is one reason Mass. does not want for the country what it regrettably passed for itself:
Massachusetts Treasurer: Dems healthcare plan will ‘bankrupt the country in four years’
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1240176
[blockquote]Br. Michael wrote:
And it will mark the end game of this Republic. [/blockquote] Oh, please. That kind of hyperbole isn’t helpful at all. It just ends discussion.
I’m in favor of healthcare overhaul, although I recognize the flaws in the current bill (I’d prefer to include a public option, for one). Much of the opposition is simply partisan politics and stonewalling for the sake of political power. But let’s be realistic: “this Republic” is going to be just fine no matter what happens — even if nothing changes, and millions of people continue to remain uninsured and even people with insurance continue to go bankrupt from medical expenses.
JW also forgets that insurance is not largess. It is a means of spreading risk and has to be priced so that it generates income. If an insurer does not generate enough income and becomes impaired or insolvent it is placed into state receivership. The rates of policies are supposed to be actuarially determined so that the insurer does not pay more in claims than it can afford otherwise it becomes insolvent.
Congress is fiddling with these actuarial calculations without regard to the insurer’s solvency. For example, in an effort to create foux health insurance the Congress allowed the creation of Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements that were in effect underfunded non-reserved insurance companies that issued fully assessable policies to the policy holder and potential claimants. What this meant was that in the event of insolvency the policy holders (and claimants) were responsible for paying the Arrangements claims.
As a result of this criminal act of Congress, when these things went belly up, we not only had to tell people dying of cancer that their claims were not going to be paid, and we (the receiver) were going to sue them on their fully assessable policies. If a private citizen, like Madoff, did this they would have gone to jail. Congress can do us all a favor and stay away!
Scott this Republic will not be fine.
For #10, Ad Orientum, if you don’t understand that Obamacare is simply the takeover of your life, you either haven’t been listening or paying attention. It affects everyfacet of your life.
desert padre
[blockquote]Br. Michael wrote: Scott this Republic will not be fine.[/blockquote][blockquote]22. desertpadre wrote: For #10, Ad Orientum, if you don’t understand that Obamacare is simply the takeover of your life, you either haven’t been listening or paying attention.[/blockquote] It’s unfortunate that rational discussion is no longer possible on this issue. Because, seriously, you both need some perspective.
When one resorts to “doom & gloom” predictions of the “failure of the Republic”, “take over of your entire life”, “massive physician losses”, and having to use terms like “collectivist Dems” to denigrate the opposition rather than the bill itself, it becomes quite clear that one can not rationally argue against the points of the plan but instead turns to fanning the flames of fear & dread.
There are plenty of points to argue against the bill. But these are simply pathetic.
I’ll make a comment directly related to the derivative referenced by this posting. I would not place much reliance in it as it is thinly traded, has a wide bid/ask spread, and has been quite volatile the past few days; e.g. the last trade was 30 pts. above the previous trade – I assume the Kucinich announcement may have accounted for the jump in the last trade price.
Jon Wilkins- I don’t think the people of Massiechusetts really love thier universal health care that much here is a good link to what it is doing to that state , basically driving up cost to the state and failing to deliver to the uninsured . Why do you thank a national health care program would work better? http://www.boston.com/…/03/…/mass_healthcare_reform_is_failing_us/
FACT: “The Proposed Health Plan” is totally hinged on “cutting $500 million from Medicare, which will then be used to fund the newly created mandates . . . ” Let me take a moment to respond: “This is some sort of joke, right?”
As a retired government employee (on a pension) let me assure you based on over 32 years of working in “Public Service” that this is nothing more than one huge pie-in-the-sky lie. For heaven’s sake, Social Security is teetering on the brink of insolvency, Medicaid is already threatening to bankrupt most of the States and still the Loons in Washington claim, mind you, with a straight face, that they’re “going to have a half trillion dollars in realized savings to apply toward funding the new program mandate?” Really!!!
Suffice to ask the question, “Are we all really and truly so naive and utterly ignorant as to believe the core premise which this bill is constructed?” This is simply a road to financial disaster, no matter how you package it. Our debt ceiling is 14 Trillion dollars and growing, yet the politicians are once again more than willing to roll the dice.
Wilkins continues to show his ignorance on simple God given economic prinicipals. Give a man a fish, etc. But, I find that most who like obama’s ideas are those who take more than they give to the world. They are already at other’s mercy for their existance.
bl
Well, in a perfect world, health care would be cheaper. Massachusetts has not been controlling costs. It’s law simply expanded who was insured or not.
I don’t think everything will be perfect. Elected leaders will have to find ways to change the incentives. There will be tradeoffs – the money that would pay for a risky, expensive and unguaranteed treatment might instead be used to fund 50 treatments that are sure.
But what is definite is that costs are going up anyway. And now, you’ll be able to blame government, even though what makes costs go up isn’t just government, but the lack of coordination.
Most of the time, capitalism provides the required information for coordination. Most of the time. But because people can’t treat their health like shoes or cereal, health care information is traditionally asymmetrical, and the producers (doctors) work in an anti-competitive environment (who have to be licensed and go to school), some intentional coordination is required.
Anyway, Desert Padre, Obamacare isn’t going to affect my health care. And the Republic will be fine. We just got one of Al-Quaeda’s top leaders; a new jobs bill has been passed; the economy is recovering. For all the hostility of the tea-baggers, the public conflict demonstrates that the republic is in good shape. It would be worse if there wasn’t any.
But when the storm-troopers start banging on Fox’s door, I’ll start watching. Although it does seem that Obama himself didn’t mind getting interviewed by them.