I would like to keep all the comments tonight on this thread: what we are interested in is what you are keeping you eye on, data as you can provide it, and source urls and geographical mentions where possible (if you are mentioning a House race for example do not assume people know where the district is unless you tell them).
I plan on another open thread near 11 pm est.
Only path to 50 GOP senators I can see must go through Washington state. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s the one race that Intrade has at nearly an even money bet. (www.intrade.com)
Before 7PM ET, my only source is drudgereport.com, as he releases exit polls even for states that are still voting.
Personally, I think we’ll see a clear GOP wave in House early, but the Senate will take longer to sort out, particularly Nevada and Washington.
Another decent source is live-blogging, Commentary magazine. Definitely ideological (not so much partisan), but they’ve got good sources. If you can handle a bit of snark, check it out.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/category/contentions/feed
What I am attempting to watch — it is not easy — are the state legislature races. They will define the 2012 election, which is Step Two. Governors are somewhat more obvious, and rather easier to follow, but legislature races in both the growing and the shrinking states … matter far more than most people realise.
Will be watching Mississippi district 4 (Gulf Coast) between 20 year blue-dog democrat Gene Taylor incumbant and state legislator Republican challenger Steve Palazzo. Taylor ran as far away from Obama and dems agenda as he could…..even disclosing that he voted for McCain in 2007….not widely believed I think. Betting here is that Taylor is going down.
I am following the TX Governor’s race between Gov Perry and Bill White. Neither candidate has ever lost an election.
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/110210-governors-race-tops-texas-ballots
It also appears that Christine O’Donnell couldn’t cast her spell on DE. 😉
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/polls-begin-to-close-in-2010-e.html?hpid=topnews
NBC is reporting that the GOP will win the House of Representatives by a wide margin.
Here in Virginia, three Democrat incumbents are defeated or headed there in districts 1, 5 and 9, pretty much as expected. Big question will be Gerry Connolly versus challenger Keith Fimian in the 11th district, which includes Fairfax and the close-in suburbs. I suspect Connolly wins in a close one, but still too early to call. Might be a good indication of how deep the blue losses in the House will go.
On Senate side, WV staying blue means so does the Senate unless something drastic happens. With WV, CT, and DE, that’s 49. California seems to be a Dem hold which gets them to 50 plus the tiebreaker, and can’t see all the toss ups (WA, IL, NV, PA, or CO) going GOP. Even Wisconsin is tight. IL and NV have strong symbolic value because of ties to Obama and Reid, but personally I think CO is more interesting as an indicator of how the new west will play.
Interesting also to see some of the “shaping” start… “not a referendum,” “not a tsunami,” “could have been worse.” So far GOP has been quiet…. would be a mistake for them to crow or pretend this signals affirmation rather than “tossing out the bums.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com has a fantastic interactive map display for Senate, House, and gov races. Click on a state to see how individual districts are going and state-level totals. Best I’ve seen tonight for something formal.
If you like following tips, texts, etc, about the hot congressional races, check out http://www.nationalreview.com/corner with the usual ideological caveat (example: one poster just congratulated Nancy Pelosi on becoming the first female ex-Speaker of the House). If you enjoy (or can stomach) the snark, they’re putting out good info from a lot of sources.
Same here, Brian. I supported Bill White and had some hope. Not anymore, sigh. Even Harris County (Houston) doesn’t seem to be supporting him. Dallas is, though.
Here in CT, it seems that the Billion dollar deficit this year and $3 Billion dollar deficit next year was not enough to counter the entrenched democrat mindset of spend, tax, spend, tax, spend, tax and, oh yes, SPEND. Democrats won most positions easily.
Oh, and they ran out of ballots in Bridgeport…despite knowing the exact number of registered voters. Anyone care to speculate on how that can happen? I read that Bridgeport’s registrars of voters ordered 21,000 ballots for a city with 69,000 voters. Two thirds of a key city’s population were disenfranchised by two idiots that hold the positions of registrars in that city. The secretary of the state’s office had recommended that registrars order [b][i]twice[/b][/i] as many ballots as the anticipated need but they ignored that and ordered 1/3 of the number they needed!!!
Now they are using photocopied ballots, that cannot be counted by the optical scanning machines and must be counted by hand…which leaves us ripe for voter fraud! I really hate the politics of the state I live in.
If my math is right (and it was never my strong subject) the GOP needs to win every one of the remaining competitive senate seats to win the majority. It’s not impossible but the odds are long.
I’m watching SC governor, looks like Nikki Haley over Vince Sheheen, and the senate race was a no-brainer for Demint. In Texas, my former and now future home, looks like Rick Perry is on his way to a third term. There are other down ballot races, but I can wait until tomorrow.
A few more symbolic changes: Russ Feingold is out (MSNBC); and Bart Stupak’s seat has flipped (pro-life Dems, already scarce, now nearly extinct).
Illinois and PA are very, very tight, with the thinnest of GOP margins but clearly a blue precinct could swing either one. Closer to home, Virginia 11 (Fairfax) has incumbent Connolly leading by ~800 votes, a razor thin margin. Reminds me of 2006, when drudge had George Allen leading with 99% of precincts reporting, then boom, in comes Arlington. Very exciting stuff.
#11 – Me too. I’m wondering if I belong in the state where I was born and raised. Not just because it’s “blue” but because it’s so stubbornly and mindlessly “blue.” I wasn’t excited about McMahon as a Senator, but I really can’t believe so many people just love Sen-elect Blumenthal, who never met an industry he couldn’t sue to “create jobs” and “protect the little guy.” In my own 5th District, Nancy Pelosi acolyte Chris Murphy (D) won re-election over a good solid reasonable Republican who was one of only 3 people who I actually wanted to vote “for” rather than as the lesser of two evils. A conservative “judicial restraint” type candidate for Atty General lost easily to the candidate who essentially promised to continue Blumenthal’s nanny tradition.
We traded one RINO governor for a new one in Foley, which I suppose isn’t losing ground at least. But with a deep blue legislature, everybody knows it doesn’t matter.
Boxer looks to have won reelection in California. I think that makes a GOP majority in the Senate very unlikely. On a side note Prop 19 that would have decriminalized marijuana appears top have been defeated. Prohibition will continue…
It looks like California may indeed elect the nitwit that, 30 years ago, allowed state employees to unionize which has bankrupted the state in the present as well as choosing Senator Ma’am over the job maker Fiorina. If they do, and then they come begging to the federal government for money, i hope we tell them to jump into the Pacific.
I no longer am in California but my two kids are, so I fear for their future in light of what has happened with Brown being re-elected as governor. I can’t believe that people have such short memories. Thirty years ago the guy was a total disaster and he did incredible damage to the state.
To add to #16,17,18, California appears to have repealed the 2/3 supermajority rule to pass the budget in Prop. 25 (although it is still in place with raising taxes.)
Republicans won’t have much to do in Sacramento.
We did oust our Blue-dog/Lap-dog demo in Mississippi district 4 (the coast). A 52/48 margin which is amazing given a first time Republican candidate beat a 20 year incumbant. A north MS Republican won also so I beleive MS now has: republican Governor (Haley Barbour, 2 Republican Senators, and 2/4 Republican Reps. A nice improvement.
After seeing an update of election results, I feel sorry for conservatives and just everyday, honest hard working people in California. However it has happened, California appears to have elected the same old folks who have been responsible for running a wonderful state into the ground.
In the 1980’s I worked with some of the aircraft related industry in LA and down south to San Diego. California really was a mecca for high tech “we can do anything” type of people and innovation. How sad what liberal/progressive thinking and policies have done to such a place of such raw potential.
Californians, did you pass something in support of a non-partisan commission to draw electoral district boundaries? Is there some hope this might improve things in the future? Alas, Golden State. My aging hippie siblings are there, mourning what’s happened to their state and still voting Democratic.
I thought I would feel jubilation about the national elections, but I only feel great sadness about the future of California. I think you are going to see a huge out-migration of individuals and businesses, which, ironically, is probably just fine with the people now in control. But then one day they are going to realize there is no one left to pay the bills for their insanity, and it is just going to be hell for anyone left there.
The out-migration started years ago. I used to have a warehouse in LA that employed 8 people. All it did was hold my inventory for local pick up by my LA customers. The state decided I was running a manufacturing business and slapped me into a new tax class that raised taxes by about $100,000 per year back in the early 1990’s. I moved the warehouse to Nevada, closed the LA operation, and saved even more money than the tax through lower operating rates in Nevada.