One of the many contentions of this blog over the years is that The Episcopal Church is in significant trouble as an institution. While I believe this is primarily because of theological factors, no monocausal explanation is sufficient to describe what is occurring. What remains disturbing, however, is the degree of denial by the National Episcopal leadership about the scale of this problem.
I think a lot of TEC statistics overstate the strength of TEC on the ground. For example, people in parish ministry know well that the real membership of a parish is roughly twice the Average Sunday Attendance.
So you know something is fishy when TEC claims some 2.2 million members, and average Sunday attendance is now under 800,000 (768,476 according to the national church office).
One goldmine for this data is the research and statistics page kept by Kirk Hadaway’s office at the national church.
As an example of the scale of the problem this morning, consider one diocese, Lexington. If you look at baptized membership, Lexington shrank from 8949 in 1997 to 8002 in 2007. That is a decline of 10.6%. Now, however, consider the more meaningful number, Average Sunday Attendance. In this category, Lexington fell from 3905 to 2973 in the period from 1997-2007. That is a decline of 24%.
It is part of a significant national trend, and it is a major issue–KSH.
Yes but this is all because of the economy.
As soon as the economy turns around — and the shrill caws and cries of all the departing primitivist homophobes subside — our church will grow and thrive, thrive and grow.
And growing isn’t all about “numbers.” Maybe TEC is growing in depth of spirituality, instead of numbers. In fact, it is my thesis that the more the fundamentalists leave, the higher the concentration of spirituality left in TEC grows.
Look at how much more loving and calm this last General Convention was with so many fewer dissidents and rebels.
I rest my case.
Quality, not quantity, is what I always say.
And how can we trust God if we do not trust people?
Two observations:
1. The cost to the leadership of acknowledging this problem is high, because that then begins a conversation about what is causing it. There are many factors, to be sure, and the departure from orthodoxy can be dressed up as something else (e.g., “conflict,” etc.). But there really is no denying after 2003 that departing the orthodox faith is what is driving people out the door and keeping them from entering. To admit this is to admit that all the talk about the need for “inclusion” was wrong, and that the “new thing” hasn’t been at all successful. I don’t think the true believers in this new gospel can admit that. So as high as the cost is to the institution of ignoring it, the cost to the Crews and Russells and Schoris and Brunos individually is much higher. So it will never be admitted until it’s far too late (and it may be too late already as a demographic matter).
2. One really good aspect of the orthodox being totally shut out and marginalized is that no longer can they be blamed for everything turning rotten. The revisionists are well and truly on their own now: there is nothing standing in their way. As long as the orthodox were a substantial minority, they could be the scapegoats for the “conflict” that existed, and that “conflict” could be offered up as a reason for problems. They have been robbed of that now.
Interesting that you used DioLex as your example…Membership and attendance continue to fall in our former diocese, still under the oppressing Mr. Sauls. Just recently, we were in contact with friends who left Our Savior, Richmond, and joined St. Andrews, Versailes, ACNA, due to the continued disillusionment about TEC in the diocese. I was not surprised at all, knowing these folks well.
Our new ACNA congregation, St. Luke’s, has participated more in a whole variety of outreach locally and internationally (Africa and Honduras) in just over a year than I’ve seen total in 77 years from our former TEC parish here, that just sits here like a bump on a log.
PECUSA decline sound familiar? The below from Acts 5 may be why.
IHS,
NW Bob
[blockquote] 38Therefore, in the present case I advise you: Leave these people alone! Let them go! For if their purpose or activity is of human origin, it will fail. 39But if it is from God, you will not be able to stop them; you will only find yourselves fighting against God.”
40His speech persuaded them. They called the apostles in and had them flogged. Then they ordered them not to speak in the name of Jesus, and let them go. [/blockquote]
I hope that as we consider the statistics, which I find very important (especially ASA), we will also consider the fate of Christian education for children, teenagers, and adults in TEC from the 1970s up until now. Consider the training for Confirmation that takes place at the “average” Episcopal Church. We Episcopalians are really great on initiation rites. We’re often really poor at what is supposed to happen after initiation.
Kendall,
I would not call the erosion subsurface, but on top of the surface for everyone to see. No one was interested in exploring why DOSC was growing and all others declining. Interesting, that on the Sunday in the middle of GC, none of our nine deputies (4 clergy, 4 lay and 1 lay alternate) chose to worship at the GC site, or any local Episcopal Church venues. I personally attended a Four Square church in Valencia and was most edified!
Haden+
The spreadsheet that Karen posted a few weeks back had a 2007 ASA of 727,822. I wonder why the discrepancy?
I, for one, think the way to turn TEC around is for the PB to issue a call for the Storting to repudiate the Ihlen Declaration, and the injustice it then brought to Norwegians living in Greenland.
That oughta do it.
😉
Intersting stats on Lex – I know two parish churches in Nairobi that have higher Sunday attendance…
…each
Silverfox –
You didn’t have to go all the way to Valencia to find a great, edifying four square – I attend a great one in Long Beach, just a stone’s throw from Anaheim.
From the point of view of the institution, and without reference to my personal feelings and opinions of current debate, I would just say that the Episcopal Church has entered a very experimental period in a season where a failed experiment may turn out to be exceptionally costly.
I read once that Episcopalians are second only to the Society of Friends (Quaker) in the rate of non-retention. That is, children born and reared in Episcopalian families remain Episcopalian in adulthood at much lower rates than in most other faith communities. Not a new phenomenon, but true across most of the 19th and 20th centuries.
Off-setting this, though, has been a relatively high “adult conversion” rate. Evangelicals and Pentecostals drawn to sacramental worship and historic order, Roman Catholics who marry Presbyterians (and vice versa), divorced and remarried Roman Catholics who seek a continuing Catholic community, adults who were estranged from the churches of their childhood for theological, cultural, social reasons (hatred of rock ‘n roll music, nuns who slapped with rulers, preachers who condemned “evolutionists” or who disapproved of independent career women, etc.). And then there are the seductive appeals of Cranmer and Merbecke, Victorian-Gothic architecture, and a literate and urbane clergy. And of course, in many places, simply the attractive health of strong parish-based pastoral ministry.
The question for the Episcopal Church is whether this particular model of institutional stability can be sustained in the coming generation. And there are lots of specific questions underneath that general one.
Given the emerging theological emphases, social culture, and liturgical practice of the Episcopal Church, will the “Canterbury Trail” that has drawn significant numbers of Evangelical and Charismatic Christians into the Episcopal Church continue to be a factor for numerical growth? Students from places like Wheaton and Biola and Westmont, seminarians from places like Fuller, etc.? Will the gathered community and worship and theological/spiritual emphasis of the Episcopal Church continue to feel “familiar” to Catholic/Presbyterian couples, or divorced RC’s, looking for a new familiar home? Will the jangle of inclusive language liturgy and ceremonial-by-committee worship, felt banners and soft-rock praise music, continue to whisper to those whose spiritual yearnings are led by an aesthetic intuition? I don’t know the answer, but my best guess is that at least some of these traditional inflows into the Episcopal Church are very likely to diminish in coming years.
There will of course be some offset. Folks constrained by culturally and theologically conservative upbringings may continue to be attracted to the Episcopal Church, and it is likely as well that GLBT and GLBT-friendly folk may now be more-inclined, if looking for a church, to come to the Episcopal Church. These streams may even grow somewhat over past experience–though I personally don’t sense among secular progressives a strong yearning for traditional church life. An interest in “spirituality,” to be sure–but whether that will translate into “butts in pews,” pledge cards, and new members for the Altar Guild is an open question . . . .
In terms of institutional survival, it’s an experiment, and undertaken as reserve financial resources have been decimated by the implosion of investment markets, as church membership across the board has declined, and as the sustaining membership of the church is rapidly graying.
The other variables are out there, of course. The Episcopal Church might suddenly get a lot better at retaining children and youth into adulthood. Or we might suddenly get a lot better at outreach to under-represented and demographically growing groups like Hispanics. Or we might suddenly get a lot better at evangelistic outreach to the unchurched and non-Christians. The fact that our previous and current efforts in these directions have been spectacularly unsuccessful doesn’t mean that we won’t figure something out in the future . . . .
The jury is still out, I guess, and it will take something of a generation to see what the outcome is. My old friend George Werner used to talk about a certain kind of management style as, “Ready, Fire, Aim,” and that feels about right, right now. As Kendall points out, the current trendlines, while not conclusive generationally, are certainly pointing in an unhealthful direction.
Bruce Robison
Kendall, I’m willing to change my mind about the issue and assent that it is theology, and not demographic changes, that are causing this slide.
I would, for example, compare it to other mainline denominations. I’d also do a few different kind of regressions that included aging and other sorts of factors.
The economic factor is not just about stewardship (although if Episcopalians tithed, they might find they could do mission more effectively) but about the general impact of religion being a commodity rather than an identity. That is a hard thing to quantify.
I’m not disagreeing with the numbers, Kendall. But to demonstrate that it is theology, and not factors such as age, demographic shifts, or a variety of other causes, there would have to be much more work.
I wonder how many parishes do “exit interviews.” I do. If anyone has given me a number and I don’t see them after a few weeks I give them a call. Such a survey would be a stronger source of information.
Numbers are funny. I know a Methodist congregation that experienced a spiritual renewcal ca: 1970. About half the people left, and they struggled for a time. Then, most of those folks came back, and a whole lot more joined them. Forty years later, they are still a strong congregation.
I tend to consider numbers on a range of local to global; the more global being more meaningful. A single congregation may grow or decline for any number of reasons; decline in a diocese may be systemic, a bad bishop, or some economic factor. TEC is in a global decline over 40 years, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of the population. Worse is the decline of ASA, which, as Dr. Harmon notes, really tells the tale: it’s the active people leaving. To ignore and even deny this is simply bizarre.
BTW, I believe it’s the Catholics in the U.S. who have the greatest rate of people leaving, by recent Pew Forum studies. Without the hispanic influx, we would actually be in decline. The same is true in Ireland or England, I think, where it’s the Polish immigrants keeping the numbers up.
Finally, orthodox theology is no guarentee of success. My best friends were part of a parish that left the Episcopal Diocese of Texas, and their project fell apart, despite much prayer, work, and methods that grew other churches.
When the economy went into the tank, folks got upset. TEC is doing the same thing and unwilling to see it. My guess is that we have become the culture and have nothing else to offer.
John in #12 I am not arguing about the causal factors here (that is a quite complex matter). What I am insisting on is that the leadership stop denying the scale of the problem. If you look at the numbers above, this is not a minor matter or a medium matter, it is a big deal.
Businesses that have numbers like these on a sustained basis change their leadership or take other dramatic action. If they are healthy, anyway.
#11, good thoughtful post. But I would take exception with your beginning statement about retention. I believe the stats will show that into the early 1960s, PECUSA was pretty good at retention of its young people. In fact, many of the sons and daughters were the ones who established the missions that grew into parishes and grew the church into the nearly 4 million members after WWII. And that 4 million against @ 150,000,000 US population at the time was significant. Compare the reduction in membership numbers now to the 300,000,000 population of US now, and the decline is truly unbelievable. And, yes, the retention rate now is horrible. But I look at the children and teenage programs that I see now and compare them with the programs of my youth, growing up in Alabama, and I see no reason why a child of today would come back to TEC after college. In fact, most don’t because they can get the same thing by staying at home and watching a movie on TV and waiting for the Sunday afternoon sports to come on. They were not challenged as youth nor is anything particularly required of them as adults, except that they listen to politically correct sermons. Anecdotally, one youth minister who is no longer with my church told one of our deacons, who had mentioned “Jesus” several times in a high school Sunday School class, “we don’t use His name very often in this class because we don’t think the kids like to hear it. The think we are being preachy.” That is TEC of today. Why bother. And that is a failure of theology.
Kendall, I agree that TEC is not equipped to manage the demographic changes it is about to confront. As long as leadership was pastoral rather than truly prophetic, it could not stem the slide.
I don’t mean “prophetic” in a social justice sense, either. But in a way that kept the church on task, and gave it a coherent vision of the Kingdom of God. This it has not done.
Thanks Billy #16. The statement about low retention was something I read in seminary in the early ’80’s, and I don’t have a footnote or anything: just a summary from memory, and perhaps you are correct that this is more a post-war phenomenon. I entirely agree with you about the indirection and misdirection of formation for children and youth, and it’s probably also important to note the widespread, though not universal, disappearance of college chaplaincies and Canterbury Clubs since the 1970’s.
One other aspect that I just brushed against was the importance of parish-based pastoral care. I remember when I arrived as new rector of St. Paul’s Church in Bloomsburg one of the elderly members of the parish told me how she had become an Episcopalian: “When I was a young girl I was injured and hospitalized, and Mr. Heistand, who knew my parents in the community (rector, later Bishop of Harrisburg by the way) stopped in at the hospital every day to see how I was doing and to say a blessing. My own Methodist minister came only once. By the time I came home from the hospital, I and every member of my family had decided to join St. Paul’s.”
A friend of mine heard Michael Ramsey of blessed memory say once, “the traditional mode of evangelism in the Church of England has been by way of Prayer Book worship and pastoral care.”
In this context, I wonder about the rise across the church of the phenomenon of “mutual ministry” and “ministry of the baptized” models of parish life. The reality is that for all the theological backfilling, the motivation for this has been almost purely financial. Many, many congregations can no longer afford to support the full time settled ministry of a seminary trained priest. Ministry teams may provide some good pastoral support in a congregational community, but it becomes less and less likely that a kindly “Mr. Heistand” will emerge as a gentle pastoral presence and attractive personality in a neighborhood or town.
I’ve started just ducking and running when I get into conversation about this with “Mutual Ministry” advocates (among whom is our Presiding Bishop, of course), but I think the reality is that the Parson has been a critical force for stability and growth in Anglican parish life for nearly 500 years, and the trend of an emerging “parson-free” model of ministry is for us yet one more “experiment” in this precarious season.
Bruce Robison
Theology is part of it, but the fact is, in a lot of locations, TEC’s membership was traditionally propped up by two groups that are on the wane:
1. “social Episcopalians,” who had few (if any) firm theological beliefs, but felt that social convention required them to have a church. TEC was often an easy choice because it offered upper-middle-class-or-better cachet and tolerated a broad spectrum of belief and practice. Now that the social convention of needing a church has fallen away, these people are most likely watching their kids’ Sunday morning soccer games.
2. “cultural Episcopalians” who chose TEC because of good old-fashioned American Anglophilia. They came for the liturgy, the language, the choral tradition, the picturesque churches, the vestments, etc. Anglophilia is much less common in a country with little appreciation for history or tradition; and TEC has disappointed the remaining Anglophiles with supplemental hymnals, Rite II, stoles made from kente cloth, etc.; so this is another group that has fallen away.
THEN you get to people who have left for theological reasons.
Retention was an issue in the 1980’s. In college, of all my Episcopalian friends I was the only one who regularly went to church. I have seen a few of my friends come back to church once they had children but still…the demographic is one of steep decline.
Bruce+’s contribution is important. I would add this anecdotal evidence to retention problems: Our church had a big retirement party for the director of music who had been there for 25 years. Former choir members came back from all parts of the country. One of the participants took a straw poll. Some of the now adult children were still Christian (that’s good!) but none of them were in the Episcopal church. These were children of some of the most active members.
Ms Schori has pointed out that Episcopalians don’t reproduce (those that do are probably unwanted evangelical types). There is a critical mass issue, too. Over half of the parishes have less than 10 youths in the congegration. A congegration that has so few youths won’t have a successful highschool group. Christian youths will be going to the Baptist or Methodist youth groups.
I wouldn’t be looking for youth retention rates to improve.
Bruce,
I would agree that the problem is “prophetic.” We have not lived up to our baptismal covenant and TEC’s leadership would rather spend money suing departing parishes and dioceses rather than spread the Gospel through evangelism.
There are several factors. I think that the first is lack of a clear message that brings people out of them selves. There is no call to die to self in TEC. There is only the call to come and be affirmed. The second is demographic. Church is becoming less important in terms of our social fabric and, so, social Christians are not comming to Church. The third is “branding.” For better or worse, TEC is known as “the gay church.” This does not appeal to a large demographic. Another issue is the conflict that we’ve been experiencing for the last few decades. Sexuality is simply the latest presenting issue. The real issue is the locus of authority within the Church. Finally, (and I think this is the biggest factor) TEC is terrible at Christian formation – both for lay and clergy. There are too many people who are unformed as Christians that go to seminary where they learn an academic approach to the Faith. They don’t understand how to read Holy Scripture from within the community of faith and approach it with a “hermunetic of suspicion” rather than as a faithful recipient of the Tradition of the Church.
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Phil —
I don’t think we have any disagreement. In some ways it’s a perfect storm. All of the above.
Bruce Robison
Perfect storm is an apt descriptor. Unlike in the 70’s when women’s ordination was foisted on the denomination, the economic downturn couldn’t have been a worse stage to launch on to this new establishing facts on the ground method of making theological decisions.
15. Kendall Harmon wrote:
[blockquote]Businesses that have numbers like these on a sustained basis change their leadership or take other dramatic action. If they are healthy, anyway.[/blockquote]
I’ve noticed that if you use a corporate model where the PB is the CEO and bishops the regional managers, TEC has the curious practice of selecting regional managers who have a record of a declining market share to be CEOs. That was true of both the Jeffert Shori and Griswold. I’d have to do some research on Browning. No sensible corporation would do that. Maybe TEC should dump all the “criteria” used to come up with nominees for PB and go for a slate of the top three bishops when it comes to growing their diocese.
Either that, or simply revert to the old practice where the Presiding Bishop was the senior diocesan whose primary duties outside his own diocese was consecrating bishops, presiding over meetings of the House of Bishops and representing TEC at the Anglican primates meetings.
(And maybe sell 815 and use the proceeds for MDGs.)
Here are some thoughts about the decline of Western Christianity from Brennan Manning. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQsauf0s4uQ
Speaking of difficult times ahead, Manning quotes Karl Rahner, “In days ahead, you’ll either be a mystic or nothing at all.”
I see a gift, not a gravestone. What do you see?
Bruce, I think you are right in part. There is no substitute for a priest being an effective “connector.”
But the shape of that “connection” has shifted, in part because a priest’s daily work has changed. I used to go once a week to the hospital – but that work is now circumscribed. Much of the work previously done by volunteers must now be done by paid staff.
Environments and resources do change, John, I agree. For example, of course: the internet. Doesn’t replace the corner coffee shop, but certainly does enhance and extend the room . . . . In a midsized congregation I do still try to do most all the hospital visiting myself, though our deacon is a great support and addition. I sort of figure that’s what I do. And if the daughter of a Rotary friend is in the hospital I certainly will do my best to drop in for a visit. (My daughter, 20 or so years ago, said, “you preach on Sunday and teach classes and the rest of your time you just do things with your friends.)
Bruce Robison
If we weren’t considering a cause, this issue would not be on this blog. From the perspective of a 10 year veteran of the Episcopal Church on both coasts, I like the Episcopal Church, I like TEC, I like the PB even if she gives lousy speeches. But what I have encountered in its local ministerial leadership is incompetence and indifference across a broad spectrum of theological positions, farthest left to farthest right. A priest who retired into a mental health facility, a retired Marine priest who referred to his teenage stepdaughters as “cute little (female genitalia)”, a priest who would not confirm youh unless they spoke in tongues, a priest who simply had no common sense or administrative ability, a priest who had great ideas for others to execute, but was incapable of doing anything himself, a replica of that who was just incapable of doing anything and turned the church over to his Vestry and parishioners, whether they picked it up or not. Guess what, the membership of these churches and ASA collapsed (and recovered with new priests, and collapsed when the next were as bad as their predecessors). The solutions are simple, act like a business. If a tree is judged by its fruit then a pastor should be judged by his (or her) flock. Evangelism is growth. If congregations aren’t getting bigger, making their diocesan contribution, 2 years from today, close those churches and let the parishioners go to churches which are. I now attend a church where the priest is competent and involved (and conservative but he puts the needs of his congregation above spending his time condemning the “sins of TEC”). His church is growing agian. It will, I am sure, continue to do so.
[blockquote]If congregations aren’t getting bigger, making their diocesan contribution, 2 years from today, close those churches and let the parishioners go to churches which are.[/blockquote]
Sometimes there are really reasons for a congregation not getting bigger besides bad leadership. My first two cures were two congregations in West Texas about 30 miles apart. After a couple of years two more congregations were added–also about 30 miles apart. My “cure” included three West Texas counties–and there were members in two other counties.
The population trend then (in the 1960s) was declining; it is still declining. (One local school superintendent said his primary educational objective was that every student learn how to buy a one way ticket out of town; his point being that for most of the students, their future must be elsewhere.) Interestingly, the membership and ASA today is about what it was then. So, by “business standards” the churches have a larger “market share”, although they aren’t “growing” and probably never will grow. Another problem in that area is that (at least then) virtually everyone is “churched”. So “evangelism” would actually be “proselyting”–which aren’t the same things. Closing any one of those churches (actually one did eventually close when the lay leadership died) would not mean members couldn’t easily go to another TEC that was growing. If “growing” were the criteria, then all four would be closed–and the nearest growing parishes would be around 100 miles away.
Oh, I did insist (and I think my successors did too) that the financial priorities were (1) church pension premiums, (2) diocesan assessment and apportionment, (3) my salary and (4) everything else. But the problem (even in the 1960s) was that many members did not like what TEC was up to at the national level, so there was resistance to the payments to the diocese.
Whether TEC likes it or not, what General Convention does has an impact on local congregations, both in terms of their membership and ASA and of their financial health.
#1. So theoretically the “spiritual quality” will be at its zenith when TEC achieves a member-to-bishop quotient of 1 or less?