Perhaps a longer explanation would be in order. If “the red line” is at issue, and it shows slightly declining average Sunday Attendance over 5 years, it looks pretty much like most of the churches in the Diocese of (lower) South Carolina. Agreed that the Diocese of (lower) South Carolina is getting bigger, but it must be attributable to growth in a few large churches, as it certainly is not a general condition. And if one makes the case that declining ASA is a direct result of failure to “profess the Faith”, it is not necessary to point to the neighboring diocese to address the problem. (See Christ Church Charleston, for a start)
yet Sunday attendance at the cathedral is not. This represents a decline in real terms, and a “static” situation among active membership at best. It is a cause for concern, no matter where it happens.
I do think comparisonitis is helpful, but for the record, the diocese of South Carolina as a diocese had ASA growth of 14% from 1997-2007.
Trinity was where I came back into the church as a teenager and was confirmed on Pentecost in 1983 by Bishop Beckham (more important to me than my highschool graduation that year).
I’m struck by the ASA being roughly what it was back in the ’80s. Given population, I agree that’s a challenge point; but if overall giving is increasing and membership is increasing, I wonder how much of the ASA is a function of a lower commitment to regular Sunday attendance. I find that in my own congregation – more people, more giving, static attendance because people come less frequently. Here in NJ, it’s due to higher priority placed on Sunday soccer/basketball/baseball and school events. Given the demographic of the average Trinity member, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were similar conflicts.
I suspect if I added a Saturday evening service, attendance would soar. We actually had a huge bump when we kept two services in the summer after installing a/c. I guess my comment, “If Jesus could hang on the Cross in the hot sun for your sins, you can sit in church for 60 minutes once a week in the summer” fell on deaf ears. 🙂
I remember reading somewhere, that the sign of a faltering/failing church is lower attendance, with increase in plate and pledge from those who do attend. Not that the Cathedral is failing, but it may be a symptom which needs attention.
Grandmother
#5, I can see your point, but I’m wondering what ASA actually means? Do fewer people attend overall? Or do more people attend, but less frequently. You can have an ASA of 100, which could mean the same 100 people are there every Sunday, 200 people are their twice a month, or 400 people are their once a month. All could be active in some fashion and a good pledger.
However, in DioNJ, in order to be eligible to vote or considered for leadership, you have to be present more often than absent for the previous 6 months, which means you need to be at the every other week point at worst.
I don’t attribute declining ASA to “a direct result of failure to ‘profess the Faith'” and I didn’t think Kendall did either — in fact the ASA of many conservative smaller parishes in DUSC was demolished by the unfortunate actions of GC 2003, 2006, and now it appears 2009.
In regards to Trinity, I know that a chunk of folks left for the plant of the new AMiA parish there in Columbia. That chunk probably was compensated for by new arrivals in a growing county and the capital of the State as well. But it’s hard to gain when every three years you have General Convention and then also confusion from the leadership, and then resulting departures.
But I don’t personally think that General Convention and its every-three-years buffoonish and corrupt actions explains the lack of overall growth at Trinity. I suspect there is another major reason . . . and since that reason is rather inflammatory I’ll just be silent about it.
Kendall, My error, Christ Mt Pleasant (across the river/bridge). Fell in 2003, regained in 2004, sliding downward since. Picked because of size and proximity but pick any church at random in your diocese from the Growth and Development charts. (lower) SC follows the same trend as the national church with a few glorious exceptions.
I don’t get it. Baptized members increased by 1000 over 10 years but attendance remains flat. If our church had 1000 more baptized members we would have an additional ASA of 250 at our current rate of attendance. Therefore, shouldn’t the ASA at the Cathedral have increased by 250 at the very least? At the risk of being inflammatory, just what are they preaching down there anyway?
re 9: Membership for a single parish is statistically problematic because purges from the rolls tend to happen at intervals rather than continuously; therefore the tendency is to see the numbers climb until someone comes along and cleans house, whereupon they abruptly drop. Aggregates over dioceses and the national church smooth this out, but there is always a lingering slight inflation of membership numbers as a result.
As an addendum, these charts have a scaling problem: they show the ratio between membership and ASA well, but at the cost of displaying ASA at a rather poor scale.
I hope all of us understand that getting a congregational system to grow isn’t exactly easy. It takes a missional mindset and serious work.
Trinity Cathedral’s chart looks to me like the normal ebb and flow. If you were to look at 2008, I will bet their attendance is better. Our ASA increased significantly in 2008 when gas prices hit $4.50 a gallon and people didn’t vacation as much in the summer of ’08. More people seem to be traveling this summer than last. However, what pleases me now is that my parish now has 28 to confirm this fall and only 1 of them is a youth confirmand. We are growing in young couples with children and 20 and 30 somethings are participating at an ever higher rate. My sense is that if you aren’t growing in that demographic, you are dead in the water no matter your opinion about the sexuality issues. This will be the largest confirmation class in memory, even before ’03 and the exodus of former insiders from the parish in the wake of ’03.
So far as the Baptized members thing, that can be something as simple as bad record keeping. C. Wingate’s assessment of purging in comment 10 is spot on.
ASA for Trinity may be a little misleading while services are being held in the gym (due to major reconstruction of the cathedral), which has been going on for 2 years and will continue probably till Easter. The number at Trinity that concerned me when I was Finance Chair, Senior Warden and raising capital funds was that the number of “pledging units” (around 1,100) has been virtually unchanged for 25 years. People give more, but more people are not giving, in spite of growth reported in number of baptized members. This may be related to the fact that the Bishop Search Committee survey results for Trinity seem to confirm what I fear – that at least half the parish cares not much about the core issues that are dividing the church nationally; they just want to be left alone to do program. This is perhaps reflective of Dean Linder’s leadership, which he sincerely calls “Via Media,” which I call “Don’t-worry-be happy-but-above-all-don’t-rock-the-boat.”
All that said, it is amazing to see the huge flock of little kids pouring down the center aisle behind the offering plates on Sundays. There is growth. But it is of a flock that follows, not that leads.
It seems to me what Kendall is looking at is obvious. ASA is flat for the 10 years in the graph. The Midlands of SC have grown 30 + %. The current Episcopal Church ought to be attractive in Columbia. Columbia is a liberal town with the University and State government. One can chase red herrings (Christ Church Mt. Pleasent is flat too), but the second largest parish in DUSC (Christ Church claims to be the largest) has dead flat ASA. ASA is the only semi-relaible statistic we have on church growth. Based on this graph Candler and Lindler have been less than a stellar duo. For all you DUSC ringers out there, like it or not, DUSC is in trouble. DEC cut the original budget in January, and cut again, by 15% in June, and started charging clergy fior health insurance for the first time in DUSC’s history. The rest of TEC may not be doing so well, either, but this graph, for this church, speaks for itself.
I don’t get the references to the lower diocese in some of the comments. The diocese of South Carolina is the ONLY diocese in TEC to grow faster than the rate of population growth in its area for the last 10 years. This is hardly “the same situation” at all. The diocese has numerous struggles, sure, but the leadership there knows how to grow churches.
Comparing the diocese of SC to the avg of TEC is not a healthy approach to the situation, either is lauding a growth that barely exceeds the population growth. SC is I think by far the best diocese in the country, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking it is a picture of health and abounding growth. It needs critique and humility as much as any diocese. There is too much of the lower SC population that is unchurched for us to be patting ourselves on the back about how we are the only diocese that has grown.
RE: “SC is I think by far the best diocese in the country, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking it is a picture of health and abounding growth. It needs critique and humility as much as any diocese.”
I completely agree. No need to rest on laurels — there is much to accomplish.
However, a plummeting national ASA over the past decade in no way is “the same trend” as a diocese that gains 14% in ASA over the same period.
Inaccuracy isn’t helpful any more than pride or resting easy. It’s possible to be both accurate and humble and self-critical.
“I find that in my own congregation – more people, more giving, static attendance because people come less frequently. Here in NJ, it’s due to higher priority placed on Sunday soccer/basketball/baseball and school events.”
I will not be attending church Sunday for the first time in several months (volunteering at a golf tournament that raises $$ for our Episcopal (SC orthodox) pre school). Unless I’m traveling or there is an unusual circumstance like this Sunday, church attendance is just assumed. I realize for most (maybe all) people frequenting this site such is also the case, yet clearly the quote above demonstrates that culture is not cooperating and is in fact doing battle against us. Sunday morning was once a sacrosanct time in our society: you either went to church or stayed home, there were no alternatives.
Trying to draw a conclusion: I guess that means the call to evangelize is, more than ever, one we can not ignore….
#20, having been raised in SC, I agree with you. I’m actually in favor of Blue Laws, despite my liberal leanings, because I think the 24/7 world we live in is so destructive.
Anyway – I can’t go so far as to say the culture is doing battle against us. Part of the challenge is that the Roman Catholic Church is the dominant Christian tradition in most Northern states, and they have vigil masses on Saturday evening. I often bump against the assumption in many RCs involved in community activities that “If it isn’t a problem for me, why is it a problem for you?”
I suspect if I started a Saturday evening service, too, most of my Sunday miscreants (said with humor) would actually be available Saturday evening. I’m seriously considering it, but I’m one priest with virtually no support staff so I have to approach the change carefully and make the sure the congregation is behind it. If it works, then I likely will have more support around me due to larger attendance and all its associated growth factors. I just want to do it right and not make a half-hearted effort that I give up on.
Perhaps a longer explanation would be in order. If “the red line” is at issue, and it shows slightly declining average Sunday Attendance over 5 years, it looks pretty much like most of the churches in the Diocese of (lower) South Carolina. Agreed that the Diocese of (lower) South Carolina is getting bigger, but it must be attributable to growth in a few large churches, as it certainly is not a general condition. And if one makes the case that declining ASA is a direct result of failure to “profess the Faith”, it is not necessary to point to the neighboring diocese to address the problem. (See Christ Church Charleston, for a start)
Parish health in general is not easily grasped by one image or stat but what you hope to see is growth in active membership over time.
Richland County South Carolina is growing
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/45/45079.html
yet Sunday attendance at the cathedral is not. This represents a decline in real terms, and a “static” situation among active membership at best. It is a cause for concern, no matter where it happens.
I do think comparisonitis is helpful, but for the record, the diocese of South Carolina as a diocese had ASA growth of 14% from 1997-2007.
Trinity was where I came back into the church as a teenager and was confirmed on Pentecost in 1983 by Bishop Beckham (more important to me than my highschool graduation that year).
I’m struck by the ASA being roughly what it was back in the ’80s. Given population, I agree that’s a challenge point; but if overall giving is increasing and membership is increasing, I wonder how much of the ASA is a function of a lower commitment to regular Sunday attendance. I find that in my own congregation – more people, more giving, static attendance because people come less frequently. Here in NJ, it’s due to higher priority placed on Sunday soccer/basketball/baseball and school events. Given the demographic of the average Trinity member, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were similar conflicts.
I suspect if I added a Saturday evening service, attendance would soar. We actually had a huge bump when we kept two services in the summer after installing a/c. I guess my comment, “If Jesus could hang on the Cross in the hot sun for your sins, you can sit in church for 60 minutes once a week in the summer” fell on deaf ears. 🙂
Dirk
#1 there is no Christ Church, Charleston, to which Christ Church are you referring?
I remember reading somewhere, that the sign of a faltering/failing church is lower attendance, with increase in plate and pledge from those who do attend. Not that the Cathedral is failing, but it may be a symptom which needs attention.
Grandmother
#5, I can see your point, but I’m wondering what ASA actually means? Do fewer people attend overall? Or do more people attend, but less frequently. You can have an ASA of 100, which could mean the same 100 people are there every Sunday, 200 people are their twice a month, or 400 people are their once a month. All could be active in some fashion and a good pledger.
However, in DioNJ, in order to be eligible to vote or considered for leadership, you have to be present more often than absent for the previous 6 months, which means you need to be at the every other week point at worst.
Dirk Reinken
This is an interesting graph.
I don’t attribute declining ASA to “a direct result of failure to ‘profess the Faith'” and I didn’t think Kendall did either — in fact the ASA of many conservative smaller parishes in DUSC was demolished by the unfortunate actions of GC 2003, 2006, and now it appears 2009.
In regards to Trinity, I know that a chunk of folks left for the plant of the new AMiA parish there in Columbia. That chunk probably was compensated for by new arrivals in a growing county and the capital of the State as well. But it’s hard to gain when every three years you have General Convention and then also confusion from the leadership, and then resulting departures.
But I don’t personally think that General Convention and its every-three-years buffoonish and corrupt actions explains the lack of overall growth at Trinity. I suspect there is another major reason . . . and since that reason is rather inflammatory I’ll just be silent about it.
Kendall, My error, Christ Mt Pleasant (across the river/bridge). Fell in 2003, regained in 2004, sliding downward since. Picked because of size and proximity but pick any church at random in your diocese from the Growth and Development charts. (lower) SC follows the same trend as the national church with a few glorious exceptions.
I don’t get it. Baptized members increased by 1000 over 10 years but attendance remains flat. If our church had 1000 more baptized members we would have an additional ASA of 250 at our current rate of attendance. Therefore, shouldn’t the ASA at the Cathedral have increased by 250 at the very least? At the risk of being inflammatory, just what are they preaching down there anyway?
re 9: Membership for a single parish is statistically problematic because purges from the rolls tend to happen at intervals rather than continuously; therefore the tendency is to see the numbers climb until someone comes along and cleans house, whereupon they abruptly drop. Aggregates over dioceses and the national church smooth this out, but there is always a lingering slight inflation of membership numbers as a result.
As an addendum, these charts have a scaling problem: they show the ratio between membership and ASA well, but at the cost of displaying ASA at a rather poor scale.
I hope all of us understand that getting a congregational system to grow isn’t exactly easy. It takes a missional mindset and serious work.
Trinity Cathedral’s chart looks to me like the normal ebb and flow. If you were to look at 2008, I will bet their attendance is better. Our ASA increased significantly in 2008 when gas prices hit $4.50 a gallon and people didn’t vacation as much in the summer of ’08. More people seem to be traveling this summer than last. However, what pleases me now is that my parish now has 28 to confirm this fall and only 1 of them is a youth confirmand. We are growing in young couples with children and 20 and 30 somethings are participating at an ever higher rate. My sense is that if you aren’t growing in that demographic, you are dead in the water no matter your opinion about the sexuality issues. This will be the largest confirmation class in memory, even before ’03 and the exodus of former insiders from the parish in the wake of ’03.
So far as the Baptized members thing, that can be something as simple as bad record keeping. C. Wingate’s assessment of purging in comment 10 is spot on.
#8 is correct. Lower SC is in the same situation with a few exceptions.
ASA for Trinity may be a little misleading while services are being held in the gym (due to major reconstruction of the cathedral), which has been going on for 2 years and will continue probably till Easter. The number at Trinity that concerned me when I was Finance Chair, Senior Warden and raising capital funds was that the number of “pledging units” (around 1,100) has been virtually unchanged for 25 years. People give more, but more people are not giving, in spite of growth reported in number of baptized members. This may be related to the fact that the Bishop Search Committee survey results for Trinity seem to confirm what I fear – that at least half the parish cares not much about the core issues that are dividing the church nationally; they just want to be left alone to do program. This is perhaps reflective of Dean Linder’s leadership, which he sincerely calls “Via Media,” which I call “Don’t-worry-be happy-but-above-all-don’t-rock-the-boat.”
All that said, it is amazing to see the huge flock of little kids pouring down the center aisle behind the offering plates on Sundays. There is growth. But it is of a flock that follows, not that leads.
It seems to me what Kendall is looking at is obvious. ASA is flat for the 10 years in the graph. The Midlands of SC have grown 30 + %. The current Episcopal Church ought to be attractive in Columbia. Columbia is a liberal town with the University and State government. One can chase red herrings (Christ Church Mt. Pleasent is flat too), but the second largest parish in DUSC (Christ Church claims to be the largest) has dead flat ASA. ASA is the only semi-relaible statistic we have on church growth. Based on this graph Candler and Lindler have been less than a stellar duo. For all you DUSC ringers out there, like it or not, DUSC is in trouble. DEC cut the original budget in January, and cut again, by 15% in June, and started charging clergy fior health insurance for the first time in DUSC’s history. The rest of TEC may not be doing so well, either, but this graph, for this church, speaks for itself.
I don’t get the references to the lower diocese in some of the comments. The diocese of South Carolina is the ONLY diocese in TEC to grow faster than the rate of population growth in its area for the last 10 years. This is hardly “the same situation” at all. The diocese has numerous struggles, sure, but the leadership there knows how to grow churches.
RE: ” (lower) SC follows the same trend as the national church with a few glorious exceptions. . . . ”
Huh? The “national church” trend is plummeting in ASA and membership.
http://new.kendallharmon.net/wp-content/uploads/index.php/t19/article/17400/
The Diocese of SC has gained in ASA by 14% over a 10 year period. How is this “the same trend”?
Sounds like a revisionist “hoping and wishing and dreaming and hoping . . . “
Comparing the diocese of SC to the avg of TEC is not a healthy approach to the situation, either is lauding a growth that barely exceeds the population growth. SC is I think by far the best diocese in the country, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking it is a picture of health and abounding growth. It needs critique and humility as much as any diocese. There is too much of the lower SC population that is unchurched for us to be patting ourselves on the back about how we are the only diocese that has grown.
RE: “SC is I think by far the best diocese in the country, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking it is a picture of health and abounding growth. It needs critique and humility as much as any diocese.”
I completely agree. No need to rest on laurels — there is much to accomplish.
However, a plummeting national ASA over the past decade in no way is “the same trend” as a diocese that gains 14% in ASA over the same period.
Inaccuracy isn’t helpful any more than pride or resting easy. It’s possible to be both accurate and humble and self-critical.
“I find that in my own congregation – more people, more giving, static attendance because people come less frequently. Here in NJ, it’s due to higher priority placed on Sunday soccer/basketball/baseball and school events.”
I will not be attending church Sunday for the first time in several months (volunteering at a golf tournament that raises $$ for our Episcopal (SC orthodox) pre school). Unless I’m traveling or there is an unusual circumstance like this Sunday, church attendance is just assumed. I realize for most (maybe all) people frequenting this site such is also the case, yet clearly the quote above demonstrates that culture is not cooperating and is in fact doing battle against us. Sunday morning was once a sacrosanct time in our society: you either went to church or stayed home, there were no alternatives.
Trying to draw a conclusion: I guess that means the call to evangelize is, more than ever, one we can not ignore….
#20, having been raised in SC, I agree with you. I’m actually in favor of Blue Laws, despite my liberal leanings, because I think the 24/7 world we live in is so destructive.
Anyway – I can’t go so far as to say the culture is doing battle against us. Part of the challenge is that the Roman Catholic Church is the dominant Christian tradition in most Northern states, and they have vigil masses on Saturday evening. I often bump against the assumption in many RCs involved in community activities that “If it isn’t a problem for me, why is it a problem for you?”
I suspect if I started a Saturday evening service, too, most of my Sunday miscreants (said with humor) would actually be available Saturday evening. I’m seriously considering it, but I’m one priest with virtually no support staff so I have to approach the change carefully and make the sure the congregation is behind it. If it works, then I likely will have more support around me due to larger attendance and all its associated growth factors. I just want to do it right and not make a half-hearted effort that I give up on.
Dirk