Until this downturn, the number of people expecting things to get better for themselves had always exceeded the number expecting lower incomes. But at the low point in this cycle, in February and March of last year when the financial system seemed most vulnerable, fewer than 8 percent of respondents expected their income to get better, while almost a quarter thought their incomes were set to decline.
The chart shows the difference between those two groups, ignoring the percentage, always large, that expects things to stay about the same.
The pessimism shown by those responses has declined since then, but not gone away. In April, the Conference Board reported this week, about one person in 10 expected his or her family’s income to improve, while about one in six expected family income to go down.
As can be seen from the chart, good times in recent years have produced less net optimism than in previous cycles, while bad times have brought more pessimism.