Check out the material in the top links under each category and see what, if anything else, you observe.
Check out the material in the top links under each category and see what, if anything else, you observe.
OK here’s my two-cents worth: If we arbritarily took any figure belong 1000 pledging units as meaning that a diocese was no longer viable, then 10 dioceses would fall into this category, excluding Navajo Missions but including the Diocese of Alaska.
Darn. Apologies. Should read: If we took any figure below 1000 pledging units …
The percentage of congregations with ASA of 300 or more is holding steady at 5 percent, while the percent with ASA below 100 keeps inching up — almost at 70 percent now. I think what this reveals is that TEC continues to have a grouping of healthy congregations, but that the current “middle ground” of so-so parishes is gradually falling into the less viable category.
In 20 years, I foresee TEC continuing to have viable congregations in college towns and major metropolitan areas, but most rural churches will have long since passed. TEC will probably be in the 1.3-1.5 million range by then, about the size of the UCC or American Baptist Churches now.
TEC’s “organic” loss (deaths, transfers out) is about 18,000 members a year, which would be the loss of another 360,000 members over the coming 20 year period if that rate was sustained. We know that every decade or so TEC also has a spasm of organized departures (e.g. AMiA, then ACNA) that accelerate the trajectory of decline. Combined with lower fertility levels and a reduction in evangelism (the charismatic revival was key to keeping TEC numbers afloat in the 90s) it isn’t difficult to see a total loss in the 500,000 range over 20 years.