(IBD) The Economic and Political Fallout Of A Yes Vote on the Scottish Referendum

The 307-year-old union between England and Scotland has been one of history’s most successful, but a possible split has investors and lawmakers fearing the potential aftershocks.

A “no” vote against Scottish independence was once a foregone conclusion for the Sept. 18 referendum, but a recent narrowing of polls ”” with some putting “yes” in the lead ”” has made the United Kingdom’s biggest constitutional change since the Irish Free State’s creation in 1922 a distinct possibility.

Secession could throw a wrench into the U.K.’s economic recovery, which has been among Europe’s strongest. Scotland’s share of U.K. gross domestic product is around 9.2%, or 148 billion pounds ($238.3 billion). Its 5.3 million residents comprise 8.3% of the total population.

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