The price of crude oil is a broken barometer. Acute pain in the world energy market has switched to the trio of refined products that we actually consume: diesel, petrol and jet fuel.
The IATA jet fuel index for global airlines has hit $154 a barrel in Europe and $149 in North America, almost double the cost of underlying crude. In trade parlance, the “crack spread” has gone mad. It is arguably worse for diesel. The spread over crude has reached $80 in Rotterdam and $88 in New York, the highest since records began. The whole global market is seizing up.
“I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched,” said Jeff Currie, perhaps the world’s best-known oil guru. We have been lulled into complacency by deceptively moderate oil headlines and by assumptions that the Iran war has settled into a low-intensity management problem. It is nothing of the sort.
Beware the rising energy dangers of Trump’s Gulf war (£) https://t.co/C5vRYPohmC
— Wolfgang Schremser (@WSchremser) July 22, 2026
