Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

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‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has abandoned any effort it made in the beginning of this protest movement to distinguish between legitimate economic protests and illegitimate anti-regime protests. Iranian media and officials, including those who expressed sympathy for protesters in the beginning of this protest movement, are categorically describing protesters as “terrorists.”[1] Iranian Justice Minister Amir Hossein Rahimi stated on January 14 that any protester who has participated in protests after January 8—which is when the rate and scope of the protests expanded dramatically—is guilty of taking part in an “internal war.”[2] Rahimi’s statement highlights how the regime has stopped showing any tolerance toward protests, as it did to an extent in the beginning of the protest movement, and views any protest as a serious threat to the regime.

The extent and extremity of the regime’s use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution. Reports from eyewitnesses and protesters in Iran describe an unprecedented degree of regime brutality toward protesters. Iranians told BBC Persian on January 11 that the scale of deaths and injuries in the current protest movement is “unprecedented and incomparable” to previous protest waves.[3] Amnesty International reported on January 14 that regime security forces have committed “unlawful killings…on an unprecedented scale.”[4] Western media outlets have reported protester death toll estimates between 2,000 and 20,000.[5] These numbers surpass the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[6] A US-based human rights organization also estimated that the regime has arrested over 10,000 individuals in the current wave of protests thus far.[7] The regime previously arrested around 7,000 individuals in the 2019 protests and 20,000 individuals during the Mahsa Amini movement. The regime arrested 20,000 individuals over a roughly three-month period, whereas the regime has arrested 10,000 individuals in the past two and a half weeks.

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Latest on Iran: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into… pic.twitter.com/gY5Ys6hJbB

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 15, 2026

The last time Iran was convulsed by nationwide protests, in 2022, the Arab world was transfixed. The Islamic Republic had spent decades building a network of powerful allies that came to dominate the region. Many Arabs wondered if the prospect of regime change in Tehran offered a chance to throw off Iran’s yoke in their own countries.

Pan-Arab news outlets, often funded by Gulf monarchies, egged on the protests with sympathetic, round-the-clock coverage. Arab diplomats kept their counsel in public but sounded ebullient in private. At one point Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused Saudi-backed media outlets of inciting further unrest and demanded that the kingdom rein in their coverage. “Otherwise you will pay the price,” he warned.

The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted. Evening-news broadcasts this month have been led, routinely, by stories other than Iran. Many officials sound nervous when they comment, if they say anything at all. Two things account for the change in tone: Iran’s diminished status, and the Gulf’s growing fear of chaos.

The Israeli wars that followed the massacre of October 7th 2023 have wrecked Iran’s network of proxies. Hizbullah, its once-powerful ally in Lebanon, has been badly weakened and still faces near-daily Israeli air strikes. Bashar al-Assad’s pro-Iranian regime in Syria is no more. Iran itself is reeling from 12 days of Israeli and American bombardment in June. As for Salami, he no longer makes threats: he was killed by an Israeli air strike at the beginning of that war.

All of this makes the fate of the Islamic Republic seem less urgent.

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The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted https://t.co/cQUYYF21oh

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 14, 2026

here is a difference between a revolution and a counterrevolution. It is a recurrent mistake of the American media to conflate the two. That is because the success of 1776—the 250th anniversary of which we celebrate this year—predisposes us to sympathize with revolutions. I can think of no better explanation for the naivete of much liberal commentary on subsequent revolutions: France in 1789, Russia in 1917, China in 1949, Cuba in 1959, Nicaragua in 1979, Egypt in 2011 and, most relevant to today, Iran in 1979.

Let it never be forgotten that, in The New York Times on February 16, 1979, the Princeton professor Richard Falk confidently asserted: “The depiction of [the Ayatollah Khomeini] as fanatical, reactionary, and the bearer of crude prejudices seems certainly and happily false. What is also encouraging is that his entourage of close advisers is uniformly composed of moderate, progressive individuals.” Moreover, “the key appointees” in the new revolutionary government had “a notable record of concern for human rights and seem eager to achieve economic development that results in a modern society oriented on satisfying the whole population’s basic needs.”

“Having created a new model of popular revolution based, for the most part, on nonviolent tactics,” Falk gushed, “Iran may yet provide us with a desperately needed model of humane governance for a third‐world country.”

Nope….

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The West wants a revolution in Iran. What’s actually happening is a counterrevolution—and history shows those are usually doomed to fail, writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/WjZRsgcy5R

— The Free Press (@TheFP) January 13, 2026

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

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3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliatehttps://t.co/HfAjRZka0C

— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) December 14, 2025

The arid steppes of northeastern Syria stretch almost uninterrupted to the Iraqi border, the emptiness broken only by the occasional oil derrick, until the road comes to a sprawling prison camp.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire surrounds the vast compound, and supply trucks line the route for more than half a mile outside the camp’s gates. This is Al Hol detention camp, where most detainees are family members — wives, sisters, children — of fighters for the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS. More than 8,000 fighters themselves are in prisons nearby.

For years, ISIS ruled large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq, brutally enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. As Kurdish-led Syrian forces backed by the United States battled to reclaim that land, they detained thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their relatives.

U.S. forces entrusted their Syrian Kurdish allies with guarding the ISIS detainees and families. But now, the Pentagon is drawing down its troops in Syria, and there are indications that U.S. officials want Syria’s new government to take responsibility for the prisons and detention camps.

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Islamic State Camps Pose a Dangerous Problem for Syria’s Leaders

The government faces a dilemma over what to do with civil-war-era prisons and detention camps that hold thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their family members.https://t.co/T2y5KLVeaN

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) December 10, 2025

O Lord, who didst call thy servant Clement of Alexandria from the errors of ancient philosophy that he might learn and teach the saving Gospel of Christ: Turn thy Church from the conceits of worldly wisdom and, by the Spirit of truth, guide it into all truth; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, for ever and ever.

OTD 4 December: feast of St Clement of Alexandria. pic.twitter.com/oa582KRS68

— Caroline Murray (@Prof_hedgehog) December 4, 2025

Israel and Hamas on Thursday edged closer to ending their devastating two-year war, agreeing on the initial terms of a deal that could pave the way to an imminent cease-fire and bringing relief to the families of Israeli hostages and to two million Palestinians in Gaza.

The two sides were preparing for an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners this weekend after reaching an agreement overnight, the culmination of sustained pressure from President Trump and Arab mediators. Mr. Trump suggested that he would travel to the region over the weekend, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had invited him to address Israel’s Parliament.

Though details were scarce, and the text of the agreement had not been made public, it promised at least a cease-fire if not a permanent end to a conflict that has set off a humanitarian catastrophe and widespread hunger in Gaza, battered Hamas militarily and left Israel exhausted and isolated internationally. 

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Israel-Hamas ceasefire | Israel, Hamas agree to ‘first phase’ of peace plan, hostage-release, Trump says
Follow live updates here: https://t.co/fuAdxyAumN

— The Hindu (@the_hindu) October 9, 2025

mages from the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and its aftermath are forever seared in the mind of Israel Pochtar. 

Pochtar, a pastor at Congregation Beit Hallel in the city of Ashdod, Israel, recalled the early-morning sirens that jolted him awake and sent him peering through the windows of his apartment on the 30th floor. He watched rocket after rocket fire from Gaza, 23 miles to the south. Smoke billowed from buildings in nearby Ashkelon. 

He turned to social media and saw videos of Hamas terrorists killing Israeli police officers. He thought it was fake news. 

Only after seeing news reports of Hamas brutally murdering more than a dozen elderly Israelis who had gathered for a trip to the Dead Sea did he comprehend the unfolding horror: 1,200 dead and 251 taken hostage, with evidence of rape, torture, and entire families burned alive. 

As he drove one of his sons to a nearby military base to report for duty as part of a massive call-up, he saw fear and confusion in the eyes of soldiers. “No one was smiling, and no one was making jokes,” Pochtar noted. He prayed for his son, said goodbye, and burst into tears. 

Then he began identifying ways his church could serve a fearful and broken population. 

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Two years after October 7, churches in Israel and Egypt continue to provide food, aid, and a listening ear to those scarred by the Israel-Hamas war.https://t.co/VfDE4T2Zn1

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 7, 2025

Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022 after only a year and a half, blind to the fact that he was taking control of the state during the most precarious period in a nation’s life: its eighth decade.

Let me explain. The first generation of a country is the one that fought. It had no time for existential dilemmas because it was preoccupied with surviving. The second generation was too busy with state-building to entertain such questions.

But the third and fourth generations—my generation—are those for whom the state is a birthright, already built, paved, and functioning. All the profound existential dilemmas that our grandparents tucked away in the attic have come knocking on our national door. A nation’s eighth and ninth decades almost invariably mark the moment when it tears itself apart over the ultimate question: identity.

The United States, in its ninth decade of existence in the 1860s, emerged as a wonderland unlike any other ever seen. The pursuit of happiness swept across the country. Then, Americans found themselves confronting an unsettling question. How, Americans pondered, is it possible that Thomas Jefferson, the author of the words “All men are created equal,” also owns more than 600 black slaves?

The answer: It is not possible. In the United States, two values collided with devastating force: the right to liberty and the right to property. The American Civil War resolved this clash of two values through bloodshed, claiming over 600,000 American lives, including that of the president.

But America was lucky; it survived. Countries do not always survive their identity wars. We all know the Soviet Union’s fate in its eighth decade.

Against this backdrop, Israel’s five elections in four years, ending with Netanyahu’s return to power at the end of 2022, suddenly come into focus: This was the Israeli civil war.

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October 7 Was Israel’s Midlife Crisis.

Read an exclusive excerpt from my new book, A Call at 4 AM, in @TheFP.

Link to pre-order the book in the reply.https://t.co/v8M1sLoEZB

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) October 7, 2025

If there were a Nobel prize for trying to will things to become reality, Donald Trump would already be a shoo-in. Since September 29th, when he offered his plan for ending the Gaza war, both Israel and Hamas have said they accept the plan while rejecting key elements of it. Arab leaders are also keen to stress that the text Mr Trump presented was very different from the one he discussed with them five days earlier at the UN. Yet the American president has glossed over those differences: for now, he insists that “countries from all over the world” are on board with his proposal.

Envoys from Israel and Hamas will hope to narrow those gaps when they start indirect talks in Egypt on October 6th. Their goal is to agree on at least the first phase of the plan, which calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of the 48 remaining Israeli hostages and 1,950 Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid for the beleaguered territory. Then they will need to discuss the second half of Mr Trump’s proposal, which lays out a vision for how to govern and secure Gaza after the war.

That is easier said than done, though, and not only because there are differences between Israel and Hamas. There are also disputes between the Palestinians themselves, and the Palestinians and their Arab backers: they agree that the Trump plan cannot be implemented without changes, but they disagree on what those changes should look like.

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Diplomats need to find language on disarmament that will satisfy both Israel and Hamas. If their proposal is too credible, Hamas may balk. If it is not credible enough, it risks imperilling other parts of the plan https://t.co/y8sh2wsiDW

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 6, 2025

We do not judge people. We affirm God’s grace for all who turn to Him. But love does not mean ignoring sin. Unity cannot exist without truth.

This step by the Church in Wales makes it extremely difficult to find a faithful and lasting resolution to the divisions within the Anglican Communion. While many of us are diligently working to discern a way forward in this painful dilemma, continued actions of this nature hinder reconciliation, deepen the fractures, and risk rendering our efforts fruitless.

We continue to pray for the Church, and for strength to remain faithful to the Gospel of Christ.

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Initially, the war appeared to stabilise Iran’s politics. A wave of patriotism pulled rulers and ruled together after years of polarisation. Calls by Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, for Iranians to rise up fell on deaf ears. But since the ceasefire on June 24th the multiplicity of opinions on how to preserve unity has made the country look more fragmented.

Mr Khamenei’s preferred option is cosmetic. To appeal to a population disenchanted with clerical rule, he is dressing his theocracy in nationalist clothes. During celebrations on July 5th for Ashura, the anniversary of the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein, and the republic’s holiest day, Mr Khamenei ordered a muezzin to drop his incantations and instead sing Ey Iran Iran, a rendition of a patriotic anthem that was popular before the Islamic revolution in 1979 and had since been suppressed. He has played Shia saints down and puffed up Iran’s pre-Islamic past. New billboards in city squares give ancient Persian myths modern themes. Mr Khamenei has also turned a blind eye to a new crop of television shows, including a wildly popular Persian version of “Love Island”, where unmarried couples flirt and make out. In parts of Tehran, the capital, headscarves and long coats for women feel like a relic of the past.

But such concessions are designed to reduce the demand for political change, not herald its coming. Earlier this month Mr Khamenei reappointed his crusty Friday-prayer preacher and his 99-year-old head of the Guardian Council, the latter for the 33rd time. After a few brief post-war appearances, the state broadcaster has removed reformists from its airwaves. Executions are up; a widely expected amnesty for political prisoners looks far off.

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His diminishing power makes the country’s future increasingly uncertain https://t.co/E1nUPGW6G5

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) July 30, 2025

Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment.

Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.

A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble.

The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.

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New Assessment Finds Site at Focus of U.S. Strikes in Iran Badly Damaged https://t.co/dr2QDpujFD via @NYTimes

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 17, 2025

An Update from Jeff and Kristin Jacobs

The Rev. Jeff Jacobs, his wife Kristin and their children are adjusting to a significant transition. On July 7 their family moved from Egypt to Tunisia where Jeff will serve as the chaplain to the newly elected Bishop of North Africa, the Rt. Rev. Dr. Ashley Null. In a note to supporters, Jeff asked for prayer, stating, “This is our first time moving somewhere without someone to ‘catch’ us. We’ll be finding our own house, car, schools, and more while learning another language.” Jeff will serve as chaplain to Bishop Ashley, helping build diocesan structures from the ground up: creating a framework for ministry; coordinating churches in four countries, and establishing training, catechesis, and pastoral practices.

If you’d like to support the Jacobs in this transition, please click here.

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The Latest Edition of the #Anglican Diocese of #SouthCarolina Enewsletter https://t.co/QpzssJYyvh #egypt #Missions #anglican #parishministry #lowcountrylife [Jeff and Kristin Jacobs and family] pic.twitter.com/2WXCp76uQK

— Kendall Harmon (@KendallHarmon6) July 15, 2025

The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program. The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists

The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall’s side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20]

Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively. The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access. This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.

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NEW Release: Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

By @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 and @SFnuclear

This report covers our damage assessment of several nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, that have been struck since…

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) June 24, 2025

I was in Egypt at this time last year for an international gathering of Anglican ministers. Our group was given an audience with the head of the Coptic church, Pope Tawadros II. He leads one of the oldest branches of Christianity, understood to go back Saint Mark himself.

During our time with him he spoke about the culture of Egypt, which he described as being built over thousands of years upon something like seven or eight layers. There was pre-Egypt (before 3000BC); Ancient Egypt with its several kingdoms (ca 3000-332 BC); the Persian Period (525-332 BC); the Greek Period (332-30BC); the Roman and Christian period (30BC-641 AD); Islamic Egypt (641-1517 AD); Ottoman Egypt (1517-1798 AD); the French and British Period (1798-1952); and now, Modern Egypt (1952-present).

I cannot think of another place with such an ancient, varied, and unbroken witness to human civilization. You can see it in the buildings. In Cairo, in just hours you can find yourself before pyramids over four thousand years old, churches nearly two thousand years old, mosques over a thousand years old, all while driving past hotels and fast-food restaurants just a few years old.

Being in a place like Egypt is a reminder that human beings do more than just exist. We build.

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What a blessing to be at @TheFallsChurch Anglican with Sam Ferguson and his flock. pic.twitter.com/nryb3jv7eC

— Ligon Duncan (@LigonDuncan) June 26, 2022

“My office is not in a chapel. My office is where the soldiers are,” said Major William H. Allen, a US Army chaplain based in Arlington, Virginia. 

Allen works alongside service members and catches up with them during meetings and at meals. The day-to-day conversations turn into impromptu counseling sessions about marriage difficulties, financial uncertainty, and suicide. 

When the military faces attacks and escalation, Allen keeps an eye out for anxiety among the troops. Sometimes he’ll approach the commander of the unit to suggest clearer communication about their mission. 

“The beauty—the gift, frankly—of my job as a chaplain is that I’m dealing with people sometimes for whom the uncertainty actually draws them to God,” Allen said. 

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The morning after President Trump announced attacks on Iran, churches on military bases offered prayers for those involved.

“For those that remain on standby on duty and in the region … protect them and watch over them.”

CT story from @HarvestPrude: https://t.co/2DYymYpJ7M

— kate shellnutt (@kateshellnutt) June 24, 2025

This period of 20 years is by no means the first time in U.S. history that military force, economic pressure, and diplomacy have been seen as alternatives to one another, as opposed to tools that must be applied simultaneously, to varying but carefully calibrated degrees, if a recalcitrant adversary is to be effectively constrained. The Trump administration must not repeat the mistake by now attaching too much significance to Saturday night’s stunning demonstration of American air supremacy.

For air power alone cannot suffice. One does not need to accept the cynical critique of Saturday night’s strikes by the former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev. There are valid reasons to doubt that Iran’s nuclear program has been crippled, as Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute has argued. It is not clear what has become of Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of percent-enriched uranium-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons. Iranian trucks were on the move around Fordow before the U.S. strikes. So Iran may still have the ability to manufacture centrifuges and to resume enrichment.

It would be pleasing to imagine the amputation of Fordow setting back Iran’s nuclear program so far that it effectively restores the half-century-old non-proliferation regime. And it would not be entirely fantastical. After all, the use of force ultimately consigned the nuclear ambitions of the Iraqi and Libyan dictators to the trash can of history. With the benefit of hindsight, we can speculate that military action might also have thwarted the North Korean nuclear arms program.

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"As Kissinger often said, every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis," writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/FhWGMLTnot

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 23, 2025

In a moment of political decisiveness and courage, Trump deployed those bombs, despite strenuous objections from the “restrainers” in his administration and parts of the MAGA coalition.

“There’s no military that could’ve done what we did,” Trump said during a brief speech to the nation Saturday night. He is correct. As Niall Ferguson and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant recently noted in these pages, Fordow was essentially impervious to assault. There was one bomb that could cut through its defenses: America’s GBU 57A/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP). And there was only one plane built to deliver that bomb: the American B-2 Spirit.

“With a single exertion of its unmatched military strength,” Ferguson and Gallant wrote, “the United States can shorten the war, prevent wider escalation, and end the principal threat to Middle Eastern stability. It can also send a signal to those other authoritarian powers who have been Iran’s enablers that American deterrence is back.”

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"Trump Keeps His Promise on Iran. The World Is Safer for It." https://t.co/W4cJn812oU

— LuigiC (@Curini) June 23, 2025

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

Read it all (subscription).

Where the Iran War Goes From Here. 3 Scenarios for Oil and Stocks. https://t.co/NzzGDtGIbg

— Barron's (@barronsonline) June 22, 2025

For decades, Iran’s leaders built up a network of allied militias in the Middle East that shared a hatred of Israel and America to gain regional influence and protect the regime. But as the theocracy is now fighting for its own survival, its allies are missing in action.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the most powerful in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran. Its military capabilities and leadership have been decimated by Israeli forces over the past year. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, is a shadow of itself after 20 months of war with Israel that has seen its leaders killed and Gaza destroyed.

In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases, as they have in the past. And Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since.

The bruising wars have left Iran’s allies wary of taking on Israel, which has demonstrated vastly superior military and intelligence capabilities. 

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Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action

Militia groups allied with Tehran have mostly stayed out of its war with Israel for varying and complex reasons, we learned.

Our latest w/@SalehAlBatati1 @summer_said https://t.co/v8oiFFqcHv

— Sudarsan Raghavan (@raghavanreports) June 19, 2025

When Israel launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel’s own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel’s dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran’s programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new. These claims are proving contentious, with the intelligence services of some Western countries cautious about the imminence of the Iranian threat, and signs of divisions within President Donald Trump’s administration. Our report provides context on these disputes….

Israel’s intelligence assessments repeat some of this information. They allege that a cohort of Iranian scientists have been working on overt and covert weapons-related research for years. This effort was originally part of Iran’s formal nuclear-weapons research programme, known as AMAD, that it shut down in 2003, probably because it feared an American attack. The scientists’ ongoing work is thought to be carried out under Iran’s Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known by its Farsi acronym, SPND), under the cover of activity in fields like covid-19 vaccines and laser technology. One of a small number of non-scientists who were aware of the work was Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, who as chief of staff of Iran’s military had oversight of both the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

But the Israeli intelligence dossiers also contain information that, if correct, is genuinely new. They suggest that roughly six years ago the scientists formed a secret “Special Progress Group”, under the auspices of the former AMAD director, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This group’s aim was to prepare the way for a much quicker weaponisation process, if and when a decision was made by Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to rush for a bomb. Mr Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by Israel in November 2020. On June 13th in the first hours of the war, the Israeli government published slides describing this backstory. But we have been told that it also shared further assessments with allies that suggest the Special Progress Group stepped up its research at the end of last year. Iran had a new incentive to advance to a bomb. It was reeling from the limited impact of its missile attacks on Israel, and the depletion of its air defences by Israeli strikes in October 2024. And it was facing the collapse of its proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in Gaza and Lebanon.

Lastly, Israel’s intelligence states that a meeting had been scheduled between the scientists and commanders of the IRGC’s air force, who are in charge of ballistic missiles.

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Israel launched its attack on Iran on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. The Economist has gained exclusive insights on that information https://t.co/OMoqNvGZvg

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 19, 2025

Mr Khamanei’s recent sermons have been chilling. “We will show them no mercy,” he said of Israel on June 13th, referring to the “evil, despicable, terrorist Zionist identity”. But he also has hinted that whoever or whatever might replace him could make things worse. His successors might abandon his fatwa against nuclear weapons that has prevented Iran from breakout, warn his advisers. A different leader, a military commander or a monarch, might rush to a bomb and wave the nationalist card. After all, it was the Shah who pushed forward Iran’s nuclear programme in the 1970s. Mr Khamanei suggests that his exit could spark violent struggles between the regime’s competing clusters of clerics, democratic reformists and the armed forces. Separatists might resurface in Kurdish and Azeri provinces, as after the fall of the Shah. A civil war is possible, as in Syria and Iraq, a prospect that terrifies many Iranians.

All this means that the mockery of the regime that followed Israel’s opening salvo is turning to fear for the country. Iranians share anonymous maps online of Tehran’s neighbourhoods slated for evacuation ahead of an Israeli attack. “It feels like we’re the only ones left,” says a carer after Israel struck the state broadcasting station close to her home. The authorities have begun rationing petrol. With no clear alternative leadership and ever more fearful, Iranians increasingly wonder if they are better off sticking with what they have. Yet an entrenched regime with nothing to lose could pose an even greater threat to its foes, neighbours and citizens.

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Israel’s shock-and-awe campaign has humiliated the Iranian regime and revealed the failure of its military strategy. Some hope it may trigger an uprising or a coup d'état, in turn creating chaos or national renewal https://t.co/PxTO843ImH

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 16, 2025

The long-standing debate over whether there was a military solution to the threat of Iran’s nuclear program will soon be academic. We will learn in the coming days, weeks, and months whether Iran’s centrifuges and missile factories can survive the wrath of Israel’s air force and Mossad.

It’s too soon to assess the success of the first of what Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said would be a multiphase operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But for now Operation Rising Lion, what Israel is calling this operation, looks ambitious and lethal.

Let’s start with the fact that Israel is going after the regime’s leadership. Already, Iranian state television is reporting the chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, has perished.

State media is also reporting that the command of Iran’s military, General Mohammad Bagheri, along with his deputy, Gholamali Rashid, have perished in the Israeli attack.

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The strike may be a catalyst for the collapse of the Islamic Republic altogether. https://t.co/Cwu7R9bFAD

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 13, 2025

Decades of Israeli warnings against Iran’s nuclear program and preparations for military action to thwart it culminated early Friday morning with the Jewish state launching a major offensive against the Islamic Republic, striking nuclear sites, military facilities, missile bases and senior leadership.

Jerusalem said it had engaged in a “precise, preemptive strike” against Iran, declaring an imminent threat from its nuclear program and announcing a domestic state of emergency as citizens braced for retaliation. Top officials warned of a potential prolonged conflict, noting that Tehran had the power to inflict significant pain upon Israel.

Multiple waves of Israeli strikes were reported throughout Iran for several hours, starting at around 3 a.m. and into the morning. Over 200 Israeli Air Force aircraft were involved in the opening strikes, and fighter jets dropped over 330 munitions on some 100 targets, the IDF said.

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Israeli military officials said that “at the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat” from Iran

After years of preparation, Israel launches major offensive against Iran and its nuclear programhttps://t.co/bjWHWsdqPG

— Oren Kessler (@OrenKessler) June 13, 2025

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials and others briefed on the discussions.

Mr. Trump made his decision after months of internal debate over whether to pursue diplomacy or support Israel in seeking to set back Iran’s ability to build a bomb, at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically.

The debate highlighted fault lines between historically hawkish American cabinet officials and other aides more skeptical that a military assault on Iran could destroy the country’s nuclear ambitions and avoid a larger war. It resulted in a rough consensus, for now, against military action, with Iran signaling a willingness to negotiate.

Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May. They were prepared to carry them out, and at times were optimistic that the United States would sign off. The goal of the proposals, according to officials briefed on them, was to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more.

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Trump Waved Off Israeli Strike After Divisions Emerged in His Administration – The New York Times https://t.co/g52MRrZclH

— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) April 16, 2025

The Trump administration’s high-pressure campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war.

President Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but he has threatened that Iran is “going to be in great danger” if talks don’t go well.

The risk is if talks hit a logjam at a time when the U.S. has piled up military assets in the region and Iran remains vulnerable after Israel battered its air defenses and allies last year, the U.S. or Israel could decide to strike, potentially prompting retaliatory attacks across the Gulf.

In a letter sent to Iran’s supreme leader in March, Trump set a two-month time frame for negotiations to succeed, though it’s unclear if the period was to begin then or once talks get under way. 

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The Trump administration’s campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war https://t.co/eDiSHqqYGm

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 10, 2025

The Episcopal/Anglican Diocese of North Africa is delighted to announce that The Revd Canon Dr Ashley Null has been elected as the next bishop of North Africa.  The Electoral Synod met on 4 February in N’Djamena, Chad, in the context of a Diocesan Synod that will continue until 6 February.  

If the Synod of the Province of Alexandria confirms this election Dr Null will become the second, and first elected, bishop of the Diocese of North Africa, covering five countries (Algeria, Chad, Libya, Mauritania and Tunisia) and including the territory of the see of St Augustine of Hippo. 

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Ashley Null elected Anglican Bishop of North Africa https://t.co/K997BYdPlG via @Anglican Ink © 2025

— Duane Alexander Miller (@DrDuaneMiller) February 6, 2025

Now that Mr Assad has fled to Moscow, the question is where will liberation lead. In a part of the world plagued by ethnic violence and religious strife, many fear the worst. The Arab spring in 2010-12 taught that countries which topple their dictators often end up being fought over or dominated by men who are no less despotic. That is all the more reason to wish and work for something better in Syria.

There is no denying that many forces are conspiring to drag the country into further bloodshed. Syria is a mosaic of peoples and faiths carved out of the Ottoman empire. They have never lived side by side in a stable democracy. The Assads belong to the Alawite minority, which makes up about 10-15% of the population. For decades, they imposed a broadly secular settlement on Syrian society using violence.

Syria’s people have many reasons to seek vengeance. After 13 years of civil war in a country crammed with weapons, some factions will want to settle scores; so will some bad and dangerous men just released from prison. Under the Assads’ henchmen, many of them Alawite and Shia, Sunnis suffered acts of heinous cruelty, including being gassed by chlorine and a nerve agent.

Syria’s new powerbrokers are hardly men of peace. Take the dominant faction in the recent advance. Until 2016 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. Its founder, Ahmad al-Sharaa, had fought the Americans as a member of Islamic State (IS) in Iraq under the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. HTS and Mr Sharaa swear they have left those days behind. If, amid the chaos, such groups set out to impose rigid Islamic rule, foreign countries, possibly including the United Arab Emirates, will bankroll other groups to take up arms against them.

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The fall of a tyrant must be celebrated. And while Syria faces great uncertainty, a nation exhausted by war could yet choose the long road towards peace. Here is how https://t.co/RMkRxpiWW8 pic.twitter.com/nWqNYtt8Nx

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 12, 2024