It’s dispiriting indeed to watch the United States financial system, supposedly the envy of the world, being taken to its knees. But that’s the show we’re watching, brought to you by somnambulant regulators, greedy bank executives and incompetent corporate directors.

This wasn’t the way the “ownership society” was supposed to work. Investors weren’t supposed to watch their financial stocks plummet more than 70 percent in less than a year. And taxpayers weren’t supposed to be left holding defaulted mortgages and abandoned homes while executives who presided over balance sheet implosions walked away with millions.

Over the course of this 18-month financial crisis, we have lurched from land mine to land mine. Last week’s was all about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant government-sponsored enterprises set up to provide affordable housing across the nation. By issuing debt, these shareholder-owned companies guarantee or own more than $5 trillion in home mortgages. Got that? $5 trillion.

Because the federal government established the companies, investors view them as backed, at least implicitly, by taxpayers. And that implied guarantee is what drove Fannie and Freddie’s business models.

The advantages the companies gained from this unique arrangement were huge. They had to keep less cash on hand than traditional lenders, for example. They also made more money on their mortgages than lenders because they paid less to borrow money in the bond market. These profits enriched Fannie and Freddie shareholders over the years and bestowed significant wealth on the companies’ executives.

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Investors continued to flee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yesterday, almost as frantically as the political class tried to reassure everybody there was nothing to worry about. Allow us to sort the good (there isn’t much) from the ugly.

In the good category, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson swatted back reports of a government “nationalization” of the companies ”“ which would mean making explicit what has long been an implicit taxpayer guarantee of their liabilities. This would instantly add $5 trillion in liabilities to the federal balance sheet, doubling the U.S. public debt burden and putting America’s AAA credit rating at risk. This is the nightmare scenario for taxpayers.

Less reassuringly, Mr. Paulson said, “our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their important mission.” This suggests that Treasury thinks the two companies have enough capital, or can raise enough in private markets, to ride out any mortgage losses. We’re not so sure, and neither are investors, who have kept bidding Fan and Fred shares to new lows on fears of insolvency.

The most immediate danger is that investors will shrink from rolling over the debt of the two companies, leading to a run a la Bear Stearns. Mr. Paulson is trying to reassure people that the companies are sound, but after Bear everyone has the heebie-jeebies. With so much on the line, we’ve been suggesting that Treasury and Congress step up now with a public capital injection to help the companies ride out their losses.

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Here’s a scary, and relevant, question to ponder as the housing market continues to slide: What would it take for the government to step in and help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and how would a rescue affect you, the taxpayer?

A Lehman analyst’s note on Monday sent shares of both companies plunging. Though they’ve recovered some, the fall, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s downbeat outlook for housing issued Tuesday, is forcing investors to consider what would happen if a bailout is needed….

The doomsday scenario could cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, says the S&P report. The report went so far as to say that a government bailout of Fannie or Freddie could force the agency to lower its rating on the creditworthiness of the United States.

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In many ways, Shelby Morrow is a typical 16-year-old. She likes hanging out with her friends, dreams of getting her own car and enjoys writing short stories in the bedroom of her wood-frame house in Palm Harbor, Fla.

But in the past few months, she’s been grappling with a financial reality that most teens don’t face. The home she shares with her mother, Melody, and younger sister, Lindsey, is falling into foreclosure. Some days, she watches as her mother cries over the stress.

“I completely understand what’s going on, so I went out and got a job as a server at a nursing home,” Shelby says. “I don’t want to move. Sometimes, I blame my mom for it, but I know it’s not her fault. I’m scared.”

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The troubled economy is leaving consumers with increasingly tough decisions about which debts to pay first, and in some cases, which to pay at all. In the latest indication of these pressures, late payments on home-equity lines of credit rose to an 11-year high in the first quarter of 2008, according to the American Bankers Association.

“It’s not a surprise at all that delinquencies are at an 11-year high,” says Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. “The consumer is getting hit from all directions.”

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Maybe it is because we have so many pets and our youngest daughter has a special love of animals, but this one really got to me–watch it all.

One of the many reasons the housing market here is not recovering yet.

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be prepared,” said Bob Janjuah, the bank’s credit strategist.

A report by the bank’s research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

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Bank repossessions more than doubled in May and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent from a year earlier as previously foreclosed properties dragged down housing prices, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.

One in every 483 U.S. homeowners lost their houses to foreclosure or received either a default warning or notice that their home would go up for sale at auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Nevada, California and Arizona posted the highest rates in the U.S. and New Jersey entered the Top 10, according to RealtyTrac.

“It’s definitely a different kind of market than what we got used to a couple years ago,” said Devin Reiss, owner of Realty 500 Reiss Corp. in Las Vegas. “We used to sell homes in a day. Now 50 percent of our sales are foreclosures.”

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The difficulties today start””as they began last year””with housing and housing-related credit. Last Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association quarterly report showed that the percentage of mortgage borrowers behind on their payments””6.35 percent””was the highest since the MBA began tracking the number in 1979. It’s not just subprime. In the first quarter of 2008, 36 percent of all foreclosures initiated were on prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, says the decline in home prices has slashed $2.5 trillion from household wealth, or about $25,000 per homeowner. The fall has also removed an important source of support for consumer spending, as Americans who grew accustomed to borrowing against rising home equity to finance car purchases or vacations now find themselves bereft. Banks are extricating themselves from the home-equity-line-of-credit business in the same way college students get themselves out of relationships gone bad: abruptly. Judi Froning, a second-grade teacher in San Diego, was surprised last week when she received a letter from Chase informing her that it was terminating her untapped HELOC. “In the light of declining home values, they said they are stopping, effective May 31, any draw on my line of credit,” she says.

Despite repeated claims that the damage has been contained, the banks that recklessly financed the housing boom””and then traded mortgage debt even more recklessly””are still cleaning up the mess. But it turns out (surprise!) the same sort of clouded judgment led banks to excesses in commercial lending, and in loans to private-equity firms. The battered financial system, which has raised tens of billions of dollars on onerous terms from new investors to shore up balance sheets, is still likely to suffer more pain from the popped credit bubble, said Bruce Wasserstein, the CEO of the investment bank Lazard, speaking at a New York breakfast. “The harm will radiate for another year.” The latest victim: Wachovia CEO G. Thompson Kennedy, cashiered after the North Carolina-based bank suffered a string of losses. Next up: write-offs for bad credit-card and commercial realestate debt. After a serene period between 2004 and ’07 in which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. went without a single bank failure, four have gone under so far this year. FDIC chairperson Sheila Bair warned of the “possibility that future failures could include institutions of greater size than we have seen in the recent past.” In preparation, the agency has brought staffers out of retirement.

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The likelihood that the U.S. is in a recession appeared to increase Friday, following weeks of hopes that the country might be skirting one.

Unemployment rose sharply and payrolls shrank for the fifth consecutive month. The economy news came on a day that oil surged to record prices, the dollar weakened and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 400 points. The deteriorating job numbers led markets to scale back the odds that the Federal Reserve will boost short-term interest rates this fall to ward off inflation.

The jobless rate posted its largest one-month gain in two decades, rising to 5.5% in May from 5.0% in April, the Labor Department reported Friday. Payrolls, measured by a separate survey, fell by 49,000 jobs last month, bringing the tally of job losses so far this year to 324,000.

The rise in unemployment has been accompanied by higher food and energy prices, pushing up the “misery index” — the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates — to around 9.4, the highest level since the recession of the early 1990s apart from a one-month blip in 2005.

Read it all from the front page of this morning’s Wall Street Journal.

Home foreclosures and late payments set records over the first three months of the year and are expected to keep rising, stark signs of the housing crisis’ mounting damage to homeowners and the economy.

The latest snapshot of the mortgage market showed that the proportion of mortgages that fell into foreclosure soared to 0.99 percent in the January-through-March period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007.

The report by the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments.

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In a sign of how difficult it is to sell new homes in Southern California right now, a San Diego developer is offering a “buy one, get one free” deal, pairing million-dollar homes with less expensive homes.

“We thought, ‘Why does it just have to be on Pop Tarts and restaurants? Why not buy one home, get one free,'” Dawn Berry of Michael Crews Development told 10 News in San Diego.

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“It was like, ”˜Build it and they will come’…Except they didn’t come.”

—Lewis Tillman, who, with his wife Tara, owns Westchester Realty in the Greensboro, North Carolina area in today’s New York Times

Tracy Warren is not surprised by the foreclosure crisis. She saw the roots of it firsthand every day. She worked for a quality-control contractor that reviewed subprime loans for investment banks before they were sold off on Wall Street.

It was her job to dig into the loans and ferret out problems. By 2006, they were easy to find.

“I’d see people who were hotel workers saying that they made, in California, making $15,000 a month so that they could qualify for a $500,000 home,” Warren says. “If a hotel worker is making $15,000 a month changing sheets at the Days Inn, everybody would want to do it. It just really made no sense.”

Warren has worked in the mortgage business for 25 years, the past five in quality control. Most recently, she was a contract worker for a company called Watterson-Prime, which did loan audits for investment banks. She says their biggest client was Bear Stearns, which recently all but collapsed because of its exposure to bad loans.

A great look underneath the surface at just one dimension of the subprime mortgage fiasco. Listen to or read it all.

The city of Canton is being overwhelmed by a literally growing problem — property owners who won’t use a lawnmower.

The city now cuts grass and weeds on more than 2,000 thousand privately-owned lots at a cost of a quarter million dollars a year.

Foreclosures are a big part of the problem. But most of the lots are owned by Canton residents.

Health Department officials are worried about creating hiding places for rats and breeding grounds for ticks.

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On a brisk day last fall in Prineville, Ore., Raymond and Deanna Donaca faced the unthinkable: They were losing their home to foreclosure and had days to move out.

For more than two decades, the couple had lived in their three-level house, where the elms outside blazed with yellow shades of fall and their four golden retrievers slept in the yard. The town had always been home, with a lazy river and rolling hills dotted by gnarled juniper trees.

Yet just before lunch on Oct. 23, the Donacas closed all their home’s doors except the one to the garage and left their 1981 Cadillac Eldorado running. Toxic fumes filled the home. When sheriff’s deputies arrived at about 1 p.m., they found the body of Raymond, 71, on the second floor along with three dead dogs. The body of Deanna, 69, was in an upstairs bedroom, close to another dead retriever.

“It is believed that the Donacas committed suicide after attempts to save their home following a foreclosure notice left them believing they had few options,” the Crook County Sheriff’s Office said in a report.

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More U.S. homeowners fell behind on mortgage payments last month, driving the number of homes facing foreclosure up 65 percent versus the same month last year and contributing to a deepening slide in home values, a research company said Tuesday.

Nationwide, 243,353 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in April, up 65 percent from 147,708 in the same month last year and up 4 percent since March, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida were among the hardest hit states, with metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounting for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure, the company said.

Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac monitors default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

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Optimists point out that some measures of housing affordability have dramatically improved. According to NAR figures, monthly payments on a typical house with a 30-year mortgage and 20% downpayment were 18.5% of the median family’s income in February, down from almost 26% at the peak””and close to the historical average. But this measure is misleading, not least because credit standards have tightened. A survey of loan officers conducted by the Fed suggested on May 5th that 60% of banks tightened their lending standards for prime mortgages in the first three months of 2007. And, as Michael Feroli of JPMorgan points out, the affordability gauge depends on what measure of home prices you look at. Use the Case-Shiller index, where the affordability of housing worsened sharply during the boom, and mortgage payments are still high in relation to incomes.

A better measure of housing fundamentals is the relationship between house prices and rents. This is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market: the price of a house reflects the discounted value of future ownership, either as rental income or as rent saved by an owner who lives in the house.

A recent analysis by Morris Davis of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Andreas Lehnert and Robert Martin of the Fed, shows that the rent/price yield in America ranged between 5% and 5.5% from 1960 to 1995, but fell rapidly thereafter to reach a historic low of 3.5% at the height of the boom. Given the typical pace of rental growth, Mr Feroli reckons house prices (as measured by the Case-Shiller index) need to fall by 10-15% over the next year and a half for the rent/price yield to return to its historical average. Again, that suggests the national housing bust is only halfway through. And, given the scale of excess supply, house prices are likely to overshoot. All told, the pressure on policymakers to help struggling homeowners is bound to increase.

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But large-scale job loss has the most potent effect, note Eric Belsky and Daniel McCue, economists at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. Markets can overheat, overexpand and digest flippers and overexuberant builders, but housing prices are most likely to fall when people lose their paychecks.

Belsky and McCue studied housing downturns from 1980 to 2004 and discovered that the most likely cause of housing price declines were spikes in unemployment. Consider the industrial cities of Cleveland and Detroit, which have lost jobs steadily since 2000 and now post unemployment rates of 6% and 7.7%, respectively, well above the national average of 5.1%. Of the 10 cities on our list of cities experiencing the greatest price drops, they are the only two where prices are lower than in 2000.

Surprised? Don’t be. While prices are falling, they are, for the most part, higher than earlier this decade. In 2000, Inland Empire prices, for example, were $138,560. Moody’s has Riverside- San Bernardino, Calif., home values declining another 23% this year, to $291,590.

“In a normal housing market, we have ratios that you qualify for a certain amount of house at your income level,” says Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance at Arizona State University. “Since banks have tightened credit, we’re starting to revert back to those lending standards, and prices are going back to reflecting a ratio of income and median house value.”

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Sales of new homes plunged in March to the lowest level in 16 1/2 years as housing slumped further at the start of the spring sales season.
The median price of a new home in March, compared with a year ago, fell by the largest amount in nearly four decades.

The median price of a new home in March, compared with a year ago, fell by the largest amount in nearly four decades.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that sales of new homes dropped by 8.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 units, the slowest sales pace since October 1991.

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Avery Salkey’s four-bedroom house in Royal Palm Beach, Fla., is still so new that the appliances gleam as bright as the day she moved in four years ago. But she’s not sure how much longer she’ll live there. Salkey has been facing foreclosure for months now and is desperately looking for a way to save her home ”” so far, without success.

Her story is an extreme version of one that’s happening to millions of people across the country.

It’s a story that began full of hope ”” a single mom who, with the help of her family, had moved from the Bronx in New York to make a fresh start. She made a substantial down payment on the house in Florida and got a great fixed interest rate of 5.3 percent. She closed on the house in 2003 and moved in 2004.

Her monthly payments were affordable. The mortgage, along with tax and insurance, cost a little more than $1,500 a month.

“I thought that was pretty good,” Salkey says.

But a series of bad decisions soon got her in trouble.

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The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels — reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day — DataQuick said in a report, warning that the widening foreclosure problem could “spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans.”

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The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India.

This synchronized global slowdown, which has become increasingly stark in recent months, is hobbling economic growth worldwide, affecting not just homes but jobs as well.

In Ireland, Spain, Britain and elsewhere, housing markets that soared over the last decade are falling back to earth. Property analysts predict that some countries, like this one, will face an even more wrenching adjustment than that of the United States, including the possibility that the downturn could become a wholesale collapse.

To some extent, the world’s problems are a result of American contagion. As home financing and credit tightens in response to the crisis that began in the subprime mortgage market, analysts worry that other countries could suffer the mortgage defaults and foreclosures that have afflicted California, Florida and other states.

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I cannot believe it. Worst crisis since second world war. Banks to “lose” £500 billion. House prices to plummet by a third. Great depression threatened. Really? I recall from my economics lesson a different and no less potent phenomenon: mad journalism disease.

Like most people I have found the credit crunch hard to follow. The world economy, we were told, was tooling along under the guidance, at last, of competent central bankers rather than hysterical politicians. In Britain, Europe and America, indeed in Moscow and Shanghai, the experts were in charge. Gordon Brown boasted the wisdom of his putting the nation’s financial affairs in the hands of an “independent” Bank of England.

Now we are allegedly up the creek. The selfsame bankers’ indulgence of personal and institutional greed, their regulatory incompetence and their blindness to speculative bubbles have shown them to be as fallible as politicians. It beggars belief that they could see no danger in so-called collateralised debt obligations, known to the Victorians as “bad paper”.

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Home foreclosures in the Charleston area rose dramatically during the first three months of this year, mirroring national trends and reinforcing worries about the shaky U.S. economy.

Lenders filed foreclosure proceedings on 874 residential properties in the tri-county area in the first quarter, according to statistics compiled by The Post and Courier.

While comparable data from a year ago is unavailable for Dorchester County, the number of foreclosures in Charleston and Berkeley counties jumped to 638 this year from 425 in the same period last year, a 50.1 percent increase.

Dorchester County, which reports the number of properties set for county auctions, rather than foreclosure filings, saw a 53.8 percent increase from the same period last year.

Read it all from this morning’s front page.

Before the bottom fell out of the subprime loan market, many big financial firms had an unquenchable thirst for subprime loans. Firms were making a lot of money securitizing these high-interest-rate mortgages, so the demand from Wall Street for new loans was huge. And that created a big opportunity for mortgage brokers. The industry is very thinly regulated, and many brokers made piles of fast, easy money off the lending frenzy.

[Amber] Barbosa says she was pretty fair to her clients and got them the best deal she could in the marketplace. But she says there was plenty of incentive not to put the customer first: Lenders would offer her 1 percent or 2 percent of the price of the loan as a kickback if she persuaded her client to take a higher interest rate. That was legal and commonplace.

Then there were the negative-amortization or “pick-a-payment” loans. Those offered low payment options to begin with but often exploded on the homeowner. As interest rates reset, often at much higher levels, homeowners faced larger payments. That’s because the minimum payment required at the introductory rate didn’t even cover the interest on the loan, let alone the principal.

“The bottom line is that the lender offered an incentive of 3 percent to the broker if they put [a client] into that particular loan,” Barbosa says.

On a $500,000 home in California, brokers could make $15,000 to $20,000 or more in kickbacks on every single one of these risky loans.

“Obviously, tons of people got pushed or thrown in that direction,” Barbosa says.

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