From cars and computer chips to tanks and fighter jets, China’s new export restrictions represent a sweeping effort to control global commerce and have set off a renewed trade fight that pits Beijing against not only the United States but also Europe.

The new regulations, which take effect in stages on Nov. 8 and Dec. 1, apply to the entire world, sharply escalating China’s sway over critical manufacturing at a time of increased international fractures over trade. The restrictions led President Trump on Friday to threaten to impose new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1.

The rules go far beyond China’s limits since April on the export of rare earth metals, which are mined and processed mainly in China, as well as magnets made from those metals. In a series of announcements on Thursday, China extended its restrictions to worldwide shipments of electric motors, computer chips and other devices that have become central to modern life and are now manufactured mainly in China.

The regulations prohibit exports from China to any country of materials or components for use in military equipment. Among the items banned are the small yet powerful electric motors in missiles and fighter jets and the materials for crucial range finders in tanks and artillery that are used to zero in on distant targets.

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China’s New Export Curbs May Level a Heavy Blow Worldwide https://t.co/CX91lkUldK "The new rules apply to any shipments across national borders…European automakers, in particular, face a daunting task of seeking Chinese export licenses to move car parts within Europe"

— David Mulroney (@David_Mulroney) October 13, 2025

Israel and Hamas on Thursday edged closer to ending their devastating two-year war, agreeing on the initial terms of a deal that could pave the way to an imminent cease-fire and bringing relief to the families of Israeli hostages and to two million Palestinians in Gaza.

The two sides were preparing for an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners this weekend after reaching an agreement overnight, the culmination of sustained pressure from President Trump and Arab mediators. Mr. Trump suggested that he would travel to the region over the weekend, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had invited him to address Israel’s Parliament.

Though details were scarce, and the text of the agreement had not been made public, it promised at least a cease-fire if not a permanent end to a conflict that has set off a humanitarian catastrophe and widespread hunger in Gaza, battered Hamas militarily and left Israel exhausted and isolated internationally. 

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Israel-Hamas ceasefire | Israel, Hamas agree to ‘first phase’ of peace plan, hostage-release, Trump says
Follow live updates here: https://t.co/fuAdxyAumN

— The Hindu (@the_hindu) October 9, 2025

If there were a Nobel prize for trying to will things to become reality, Donald Trump would already be a shoo-in. Since September 29th, when he offered his plan for ending the Gaza war, both Israel and Hamas have said they accept the plan while rejecting key elements of it. Arab leaders are also keen to stress that the text Mr Trump presented was very different from the one he discussed with them five days earlier at the UN. Yet the American president has glossed over those differences: for now, he insists that “countries from all over the world” are on board with his proposal.

Envoys from Israel and Hamas will hope to narrow those gaps when they start indirect talks in Egypt on October 6th. Their goal is to agree on at least the first phase of the plan, which calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of the 48 remaining Israeli hostages and 1,950 Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid for the beleaguered territory. Then they will need to discuss the second half of Mr Trump’s proposal, which lays out a vision for how to govern and secure Gaza after the war.

That is easier said than done, though, and not only because there are differences between Israel and Hamas. There are also disputes between the Palestinians themselves, and the Palestinians and their Arab backers: they agree that the Trump plan cannot be implemented without changes, but they disagree on what those changes should look like.

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Diplomats need to find language on disarmament that will satisfy both Israel and Hamas. If their proposal is too credible, Hamas may balk. If it is not credible enough, it risks imperilling other parts of the plan https://t.co/y8sh2wsiDW

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 6, 2025

As of September 2025, Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years. Despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting, there remains no end in sight.

There has been a flurry of activity, from talks in Saudi Arabia to Oval Office meetings, and even a summit in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Europeans have spent nearly a year talking among themselves about providing a peacekeeping force, whenever a ceasefire is reached. Yet despite all this diplomacy, multiple meetings, and countless statements, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine’s cities and engage in a brutal, months-long ground offensive.

Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition—and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine. Should Russia conclude that it cannot fully “win” and that destroying Ukraine’s military and toppling Ukraine’s democracy is impossible, that does not mean that Moscow will sue for peace. Instead, a next-best option for Russia is likely a forever war, waged at a lower, more sustainable intensity, that would prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union or NATO. This means that the prospects of the Kremlin seeking any diplomatic breakthroughs are extremely low.

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"Ukraine may need to escalate in order to de-escalate, all while maintaining its defensive line at the front," @maxbergmann and @MSnegovaya write.

Read more from @csiserep about the next chapter for Russia's war in Ukraine: https://t.co/4IOJGSkvT6

— CSIS (@CSIS) October 2, 2025

There’s a great deal at stake in the upcoming Czech election — for Russia. So perhaps it’s no wonder that Czechia has been flooded by pro-Russian disinformation of late.

A victory by populist right-winger Andrej Babiš, who is ahead in the polls, would see him join Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico around the EU table. The Hungarian and Slovak leaders are on friendly terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin and have consistently torpedoed EU unity on Ukraine.

Incumbent Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala has framed the Oct. 3-4 vote as no less than a battle over the country’s geopolitical future.

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Russia has flooded the Czech election with disinformation as populist right-winger Andrej Babiš leads in the polls. https://t.co/em6KI3M9Mf

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 23, 2025

You graduate from a college, I think you should get, automatically as part of your diploma, a green card [permanent residence in the United States],” promised Donald Trump on the campaign trail last year. As president, on September 19th, Mr Trump headed in the opposite direction. He proposed a charge of $100,000 on new applications for H-1B visas, a favourite of technology firms hiring foreign graduates. Each year 85,000 are issued by lottery (demand far outstrips that quota). Hitherto the cost of securing one has been about $2,500 in legal and filing fees.

Big tech firms dominate the visas (see chart 1). Amazon alone received more than 14,000 approvals in 2025 (renewals do not count against the 85,000 quota). Indian IT-services giants such as Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also routinely rank among the top sponsors. And Indian citizens scoop most of the visas—about three-quarters of them in 2023. Apart from China (12%), no other country secures more than 2%. Many of Mr Trump’s supporters complain that this means jobs that could go to talented Americans go to Indian graduates instead. But the effects of the new charge may be more complicated than they expect.

Over the weekend many of America’s tech giants scrambled to advise employees on H-1B visas not to leave the country until the rules are clarified; whether exemptions will be made for some groups remains uncertain. The announcement has been most keenly felt, though, in India. In August Mr Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, sparing only essentials such as electronics and pharmaceuticals. Now he has hit the country’s most successful sector. According to Goldman Sachs, services exports grew from $53bn to $338bn between 2005 and 2023, almost twice the global rate. That growth was driven by a boom in India’s population of engineers, particularly in computer science. The IT firms relied on sending engineers to America under the H-1B programme to serve clients, a cornerstone of their business model. For decades H-1Bs offered Indian techies a route to better-paid jobs in America. That path now looks far less certain.

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The perverse consequence of America’s $100,000 visa fees https://t.co/AbOuOhgZi6 via @TheEconomist

— Adi Gaskell (@AdiGaskell) September 23, 2025

China is undertaking a large-scale build-out of infrastructure along its eastern coast, including air and naval sites that show its growing readiness for a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Satellite images and other open-source material examined by The Wall Street Journal illustrate how these facilities would strengthen China’s hand if it launched an invasion of the island democracy. Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and has pledged to take it, by force if necessary.

The sites range from a large new base for amphibious warships to a multibillion-dollar airport that sits around 3 miles from front-line Taiwanese islands. “All of it goes to supporting China’s one military planning scenario, which is a Taiwan scenario,” said Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies who closely tracks these projects.

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How China’s New Naval and Air Sites Would Aid an Attack on Taiwan—Satellite images show major infrastructure expansion, including on the Taiwan Strait@NiharikaSM https://t.co/YKNu0YP3KThttps://t.co/YKNu0YP3KT

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) September 5, 2025

Ukraine is pursuing a multibillion-dollar arms buildup that would be funded by Europe, seeing it as the best chance of ensuring the country’s long-term survival as American assistance dries up and Western security guarantees remain uncertain.

Kyiv wants not only to sustain its army through the current war but also to make it the backbone of any postwar settlement, with the goal of deterring Russia from invading again. As Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, recently put it: “Ukraine must become a steel porcupine, undigestible for potential invaders.”

At the center of these efforts is a new NATO-backed procurement system that will channel European funds into buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes the system will enable $1 billion in purchases each month, with a particular focus on acquiring U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems to expand Kyiv’s limited arsenal.

The new system would both help replace U.S. arms donations that President Trump has ended and also increase and streamline deliveries of weapons to Ukraine over time. A first sale of cruise missiles and GPS navigation kits, worth $825 million, was announced on Thursday.

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Ukraine Pursues a Weapons Buildup More Potent Than Any Security Guarantee https://t.co/pEmO0N1JJZ via @NYTimes

— Luba Howard 🇺🇦 (@marynlm) September 3, 2025

The Chinese government is using companies with expertise in artificial intelligence to monitor and manipulate public opinion, giving it a new weapon in information warfare, according to current and former U.S. officials and documents unearthed by researchers.

One company’s internal documents show how it has undertaken influence campaigns in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and collected data on members of Congress and other influential Americans.

While the firm has not mounted a campaign in the United States, American spy agencies have monitored its activity for signs that it might try to influence American elections or political debates, former U.S. officials said.

Artificial intelligence is increasingly the new frontier of espionage and malign influence operations, allowing intelligence services to conduct campaigns far faster, more efficiently and on a larger scale than ever before.

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The Chinese government is using A.I. to personalize its information warfare. Disinformation can be tailored victim by victim. https://t.co/8rIwsVurb1

— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) August 7, 2025

Six months ago, few people would have anticipated that the United States would place a 15 percent tariff on exports from Japan, one of America’s closest and most longstanding allies. President Trump had campaigned on the idea of a 10 percent universal base-line tariff, plus a higher levy on China, but it was not clear whether he would follow through.

But on Tuesday, when Mr. Trump announced a trade deal that included a 15 percent tariff on Japanese products — the highest rate those goods have faced in decades — there was a palpable sense of relief. Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose. The Japanese Nikkei 225 surged by over 3.5 percent, while shares of Japanese automakers, which will also be charged a 15 percent tariff on their exports to the United States, jumped more than 10 percent. The reaction is a testament to just how quickly and completely Mr. Trump has transformed the world’s expectations regarding tariffs.

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Trump’s Tariffs Are the Highest in a Century. But After His Threats, They Seem Like a Relief. https://t.co/eevtXIQ4cC via @NYTimes

— ISMAIL (@iamaniku) July 23, 2025

Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment.

Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.

A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble.

The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.

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New Assessment Finds Site at Focus of U.S. Strikes in Iran Badly Damaged https://t.co/dr2QDpujFD via @NYTimes

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 17, 2025

Faced with intensifying Chinese encroachment at sea, the Philippines increasingly sees its national security as intertwined with that of Taiwan and is quietly ramping up both formal and informal engagement with the self-governing island, including on security, according to government officials, defense analysts and diplomats here.

This marks a significant departure from Manila’s conservative approach toward Taiwan and could pave the way for the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, to play a bigger role if China makes good on its threats to invade Taiwan.

“Any force projection of China within our area is a matter of extreme concern,” Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said in an interview Thursday.

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The Philippines is quietly ramping up cooperation with Taiwan — including on security

Lots of new details in our @washingtonpost dispatch, including that at a U.S.-Phil military exercise last month, unofficial Taiwanese observers were present & participated in tabletop planning pic.twitter.com/S1SiRjmjvK

— Rebecca Tan (@rebtanhs) July 14, 2025

The subtext of this war game is deadly serious. Finland’s entry into Nato in 2023 more than doubled the defence alliance’s border with Russia to almost 2,600km, stretching from the Arctic down to Belarus.

While Moscow is currently tied up with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many along this frontier expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to one day turn his attention to Nato’s eastern flank. The Russian economy is already geared towards conflict and Putin’s imperialist ambitions may mean it goes on to look for conquest elsewhere.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could be ready to use force against the alliance “within five years”. “Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now,” Rutte said in a speech. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later said that Russia was planning “new military operations on Nato territory” in an address to the alliance’s summit last week.

While US President Donald Trump reassured allies he was “with them all the way” on arrival at the summit, he had spooked European capitals hours before with a suggestion that the military alliance’s mutual defence pact, known as Article 5, was open to interpretation.

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Can't wait to get to the office and see how this map for today's @FT Big Read printed. A comprehensive look at whether Europe is prepared for war. https://t.co/4neP2wMdoh
A lighter version for print to avoid it printing too dark and issues with white text.#dataviz #gistribe pic.twitter.com/KepzQ6nW76

— Steven Bernard (@sdbernard) July 1, 2025

The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program. The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists

The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall’s side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20]

Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively. The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access. This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.

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NEW Release: Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

By @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 and @SFnuclear

This report covers our damage assessment of several nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, that have been struck since…

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) June 24, 2025

At China Mall , a vast supermarket in Kampala, Uganda’s capital, Rose Ahurra picks up a small turquoise squirrel. The toy flashes as she puts it in a trolley laden with towels, clothes, containers and an air fryer. The purchases indicate her place in the Ugandan middle class, which has flocked to China Mall since it opened earlier this year. “The prices are fair and I no longer have to go to lots of individual shops,” she explains.

But the floors of mostly Chinese goods also hint at an imbalance that worries African policymakers. Total trade between China and Africa was worth $296bn in 2024. Yet the value of what China exported west ($179bn) was much higher than what Africa sent east ($117bn). This year, partly as a result of the state support China is giving to its factories to boost the domestic economy, Chinese exports to the continent are on track to be 12% higher. African countries have long asked Beijing to make it easier to trade the other way, too. Many will have welcomed China’s announcement on June 12th that it will grant duty-free access to products from every African country except Eswatini, a tiny kingdom that recognises Taiwan.

The immediate impact may be minimal. But the policy could integrate African economies more deeply into Chinese-centred supply chains as the global economy is fragmenting. Geopolitically, China’s move is as subtle as a flashing turquoise squirrel. After 25 years America is set to end its own duty-free deal with Africa when the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires on September 30th. It is imposing tariffs willy-nilly, slashing aid and banning African migrants. For its biggest competitor, that is an opportunity.

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China is presenting itself to Africa as a benevolent trading partner, different from Donald Trump’s America. This is ironic, in a topsy-turvy way https://t.co/u5yd9rYewF

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 24, 2025

This period of 20 years is by no means the first time in U.S. history that military force, economic pressure, and diplomacy have been seen as alternatives to one another, as opposed to tools that must be applied simultaneously, to varying but carefully calibrated degrees, if a recalcitrant adversary is to be effectively constrained. The Trump administration must not repeat the mistake by now attaching too much significance to Saturday night’s stunning demonstration of American air supremacy.

For air power alone cannot suffice. One does not need to accept the cynical critique of Saturday night’s strikes by the former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev. There are valid reasons to doubt that Iran’s nuclear program has been crippled, as Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute has argued. It is not clear what has become of Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of percent-enriched uranium-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons. Iranian trucks were on the move around Fordow before the U.S. strikes. So Iran may still have the ability to manufacture centrifuges and to resume enrichment.

It would be pleasing to imagine the amputation of Fordow setting back Iran’s nuclear program so far that it effectively restores the half-century-old non-proliferation regime. And it would not be entirely fantastical. After all, the use of force ultimately consigned the nuclear ambitions of the Iraqi and Libyan dictators to the trash can of history. With the benefit of hindsight, we can speculate that military action might also have thwarted the North Korean nuclear arms program.

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"As Kissinger often said, every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis," writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/FhWGMLTnot

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 23, 2025

In a moment of political decisiveness and courage, Trump deployed those bombs, despite strenuous objections from the “restrainers” in his administration and parts of the MAGA coalition.

“There’s no military that could’ve done what we did,” Trump said during a brief speech to the nation Saturday night. He is correct. As Niall Ferguson and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant recently noted in these pages, Fordow was essentially impervious to assault. There was one bomb that could cut through its defenses: America’s GBU 57A/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP). And there was only one plane built to deliver that bomb: the American B-2 Spirit.

“With a single exertion of its unmatched military strength,” Ferguson and Gallant wrote, “the United States can shorten the war, prevent wider escalation, and end the principal threat to Middle Eastern stability. It can also send a signal to those other authoritarian powers who have been Iran’s enablers that American deterrence is back.”

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"Trump Keeps His Promise on Iran. The World Is Safer for It." https://t.co/W4cJn812oU

— LuigiC (@Curini) June 23, 2025

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

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Where the Iran War Goes From Here. 3 Scenarios for Oil and Stocks. https://t.co/NzzGDtGIbg

— Barron's (@barronsonline) June 22, 2025

For decades, Iran’s leaders built up a network of allied militias in the Middle East that shared a hatred of Israel and America to gain regional influence and protect the regime. But as the theocracy is now fighting for its own survival, its allies are missing in action.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the most powerful in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran. Its military capabilities and leadership have been decimated by Israeli forces over the past year. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, is a shadow of itself after 20 months of war with Israel that has seen its leaders killed and Gaza destroyed.

In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases, as they have in the past. And Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since.

The bruising wars have left Iran’s allies wary of taking on Israel, which has demonstrated vastly superior military and intelligence capabilities. 

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Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action

Militia groups allied with Tehran have mostly stayed out of its war with Israel for varying and complex reasons, we learned.

Our latest w/@SalehAlBatati1 @summer_said https://t.co/v8oiFFqcHv

— Sudarsan Raghavan (@raghavanreports) June 19, 2025

When Israel launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel’s own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel’s dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran’s programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new. These claims are proving contentious, with the intelligence services of some Western countries cautious about the imminence of the Iranian threat, and signs of divisions within President Donald Trump’s administration. Our report provides context on these disputes….

Israel’s intelligence assessments repeat some of this information. They allege that a cohort of Iranian scientists have been working on overt and covert weapons-related research for years. This effort was originally part of Iran’s formal nuclear-weapons research programme, known as AMAD, that it shut down in 2003, probably because it feared an American attack. The scientists’ ongoing work is thought to be carried out under Iran’s Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known by its Farsi acronym, SPND), under the cover of activity in fields like covid-19 vaccines and laser technology. One of a small number of non-scientists who were aware of the work was Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, who as chief of staff of Iran’s military had oversight of both the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

But the Israeli intelligence dossiers also contain information that, if correct, is genuinely new. They suggest that roughly six years ago the scientists formed a secret “Special Progress Group”, under the auspices of the former AMAD director, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This group’s aim was to prepare the way for a much quicker weaponisation process, if and when a decision was made by Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to rush for a bomb. Mr Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by Israel in November 2020. On June 13th in the first hours of the war, the Israeli government published slides describing this backstory. But we have been told that it also shared further assessments with allies that suggest the Special Progress Group stepped up its research at the end of last year. Iran had a new incentive to advance to a bomb. It was reeling from the limited impact of its missile attacks on Israel, and the depletion of its air defences by Israeli strikes in October 2024. And it was facing the collapse of its proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in Gaza and Lebanon.

Lastly, Israel’s intelligence states that a meeting had been scheduled between the scientists and commanders of the IRGC’s air force, who are in charge of ballistic missiles.

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Israel launched its attack on Iran on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. The Economist has gained exclusive insights on that information https://t.co/OMoqNvGZvg

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 19, 2025

The long-standing debate over whether there was a military solution to the threat of Iran’s nuclear program will soon be academic. We will learn in the coming days, weeks, and months whether Iran’s centrifuges and missile factories can survive the wrath of Israel’s air force and Mossad.

It’s too soon to assess the success of the first of what Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said would be a multiphase operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But for now Operation Rising Lion, what Israel is calling this operation, looks ambitious and lethal.

Let’s start with the fact that Israel is going after the regime’s leadership. Already, Iranian state television is reporting the chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, has perished.

State media is also reporting that the command of Iran’s military, General Mohammad Bagheri, along with his deputy, Gholamali Rashid, have perished in the Israeli attack.

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The strike may be a catalyst for the collapse of the Islamic Republic altogether. https://t.co/Cwu7R9bFAD

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 13, 2025

Decades of Israeli warnings against Iran’s nuclear program and preparations for military action to thwart it culminated early Friday morning with the Jewish state launching a major offensive against the Islamic Republic, striking nuclear sites, military facilities, missile bases and senior leadership.

Jerusalem said it had engaged in a “precise, preemptive strike” against Iran, declaring an imminent threat from its nuclear program and announcing a domestic state of emergency as citizens braced for retaliation. Top officials warned of a potential prolonged conflict, noting that Tehran had the power to inflict significant pain upon Israel.

Multiple waves of Israeli strikes were reported throughout Iran for several hours, starting at around 3 a.m. and into the morning. Over 200 Israeli Air Force aircraft were involved in the opening strikes, and fighter jets dropped over 330 munitions on some 100 targets, the IDF said.

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Israeli military officials said that “at the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat” from Iran

After years of preparation, Israel launches major offensive against Iran and its nuclear programhttps://t.co/bjWHWsdqPG

— Oren Kessler (@OrenKessler) June 13, 2025

The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war, after Russian forces conducted the largest combined strike on the night of May 24 to 25. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched nine Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast and 355 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all nine Kh-101 missiles and 233 drones over northern, eastern, southern, western, and central Ukraine and that 55 drones were “lost.” Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes targeted Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.[2] Ukrainian officials stated that the strikes caused civilian casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure and private residences.

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NEW: Russian forces conducted one of their largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 25 to 26 after three nights of record strikes. ⬇️(1/3)

The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war after Russian forces… pic.twitter.com/MnYt11RSKA

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 27, 2025

When Donald J. Trump championed the idea of a 10 percent blanket tariff during the campaign, many people, whether for or against, were taken aback by how radical the idea was.

Alarms sounded about higher inflation, lost jobs, slower growth or recession. The prospect seemed so outlandish that most economists and Wall Street analysts who gamed out the possibilities tended to treat a 10 percent tariff simply as a bargaining tool.

Now, after a rapid-fire series of announcements from the White House that promised, imposed, reversed, delayed, decreased and increased tariffs, the 10 percent solution is looking like the most temperate choice rather than the most revolutionary, especially now that a red-hot trade war between China and the United States is blazing.

Yet 10 percent tariffs have not lost their sting.

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Trump Has Threatened Much Worse, but the 10% Tariffs Will Still Sting https://t.co/xIGXwY47tm

— Sean Graf (@seangraf) April 16, 2025

The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.

Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty.

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The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products https://t.co/FXHmaBn5kY

— Bloomberg (@business) April 15, 2025

The  Sudan conflict, which began two years ago on Tuesday, is “the world’s most severe humanitarian and displacement crisis”, the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) has said.

The fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support forces (RSF) has spread across most of the country (News, 21 April 2023).

About 150,000 people are estimated to have died during the conflict, the BBC reports. CAFOD reports that ten million people have been internally displaced, and more than three million have fled into neighbouring countries.

The Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, is hosting ministers from donor countries and the wider region at a conference in London, on Tuesday, to encourage a ceasefire and the protection of civilians.

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Get Sudan peace talks up started, international conference is urged https://t.co/DhDh0X4yar

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) April 15, 2025

One dangerous card that China’s got is its $760 billion holdings in Treasury securities. The country is the US’s second-largest foreign creditor after Japan.

Last week, the 10-year yield jumped by 50 basis points to 4.49%, the biggest weekly surge since 2001. Some of the sharpest moves were occurring during Asian hours, prompting speculation that Beijing was in the market. Will China weaponize and dump its holdings?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed this fear aside. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, he talked about the beauty of being the world’s biggest borrower. “If you take a bank loan, the bank is in charge, they can repossess whatever you borrowed against. But if you take a big enough loan, you’re kind of in charge of the bank,” he said.

While that’s true in a distressed scenario, the dynamic doesn’t quite work here. Trump’s abrupt tariff U-turn exposed the White House’s Achilles’ heel: He blinked and paused hikes on all nations except China — after watching US sovereign bonds tank.

After all, Bessent, who’s now spearheading tariff negotiations, requires a stable bond market to sell into….

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“One dangerous card that China’s got is its $760 billion holdings in Treasury securities. The country is the US’s second-largest foreign creditor after Japan.”https://t.co/xiuAsrNHxb

— Tim O'Brien (@TimOBrien) April 14, 2025

“She left no last words. She was dead when she was carried away,” says Hafiza quietly, as she describes how her mother was killed in a city under siege in Darfur, during Sudan’s civil war, which began exactly two years ago.

The 21-year-old recorded how her family’s life was turned upside down by her mother’s death, on one of several phones the BBC World Service managed to get to people trapped in the crossfire in el-Fasher.

Under constant bombardment, el-Fasher has been largely cut off from the outside world for a year, making it impossible for journalists to enter the city. For safety reasons, we are only using the first names of people who wanted to film their lives and share their stories on the BBC phones.

Hafiza describes how she suddenly found herself responsible for her five-year-old brother and two teenage sisters.

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Today marks 2 years since the start of the war in Sudan. Colleagues at @bbcworldservice smuggled phones into the besieged city of el-Fasher in North Darfur to get 1st hand accounts from the residents there. Reporting by @HebaBitarhttps://t.co/ozyYtYQOof

— Mayeni Jones (@MayeniJones) April 15, 2025

In short, the U.S. economy will suffer enormously in a large-scale trade war with China, which the current levels of Trump-imposed tariffs, at more than 100 percent, surely constitute if left in place. In fact, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates. The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough, but it’s in fact putting the U.S. economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation.

The United States will face shortages of critical inputs ranging from basic ingredients of most pharmaceuticals to inexpensive semiconductors used in cars and home appliances to critical minerals for industrial processes including weapons production. The supply shock from drastically reducing or zeroing out imports from China, as Trump purports to want to achieve, would mean stagflation, the macroeconomic nightmare seen in the 1970s and during the COVID pandemic, when the economy shrank and inflation rose simultaneously. In such a situation, which may be closer at hand than many think, the Federal Reserve and fiscal policymakers are left with only terrible options and little chance of staving off unemployment except by further raising inflation.

When it comes to real war, if you have reason to be afraid of being invaded, it would be suicidal to provoke your adversary before you’ve armed yourself. That is essentially what Trump’s economic attack risks: given that the U.S. economy is entirely dependent on Chinese sources for vital goods (pharmaceutical stocks, cheap electronic chips, critical minerals), it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade. By doing it the other way around, the administration is inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent.

This could all be intended as just a negotiating tactic, Trump’s and Bessent’s repeated statements and actions notwithstanding. But even on those terms, the strategy will do more harm than good. As I warned in Foreign Affairs last October, the fundamental problem with Trump’s economic approach is that it would need to carry out enough self-harming threats to be credible, which means that markets and households would expect ongoing uncertainty. Americans and foreigners alike would invest less rather than more in the U.S. economy, and they would no longer trust the U.S. government to live up to any deal, making a negotiated settlement or agreement to deescalate difficult to achieve. As a result, U.S. productive capacity would decline rather than improve, which would only increase the leverage that China and others have over the United States.

The Trump administration is embarking on an economic equivalent of the Vietnam War—a war of choice that will soon result in a quagmire, undermining faith at home and abroad in both the trustworthiness and the competence of the United States—and we all know how that turned out.

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Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. https://t.co/xXRAoMGqHe via @ForeignAffairs

— Adam Posen (@AdamPosen) April 9, 2025

The Trump administration’s high-pressure campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war.

President Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but he has threatened that Iran is “going to be in great danger” if talks don’t go well.

The risk is if talks hit a logjam at a time when the U.S. has piled up military assets in the region and Iran remains vulnerable after Israel battered its air defenses and allies last year, the U.S. or Israel could decide to strike, potentially prompting retaliatory attacks across the Gulf.

In a letter sent to Iran’s supreme leader in March, Trump set a two-month time frame for negotiations to succeed, though it’s unclear if the period was to begin then or once talks get under way. 

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The Trump administration’s campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war https://t.co/eDiSHqqYGm

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 10, 2025