According to the U.S.Census Bureau’s figures, Oregon has grown in population from 3,421,399 in 2000 to 3,831,074 in 2010. This represents a population growth of approximately 12.0% in this time frame. (Of passing interest, please note that the population of the United States as a whole went from 281,421,906 in 2000 to 308,745,538 in 2010, an overall American growth for the decade of 9.7%).
According to Episcopal Church statistics, the Diocese of Oregon went from Average Sunday Attendance (or ASA) of 7,793 in 2000 to 6,547 in 2010. This represents a decline of 16.0% during this decade.
Please note that if you go to the link toward the end of this sentence and enter “Oregon” as the name of the diocese and then “View Diocese Chart” underneath on the left you can see in pictorial form some of the data from 2000-2010.
These statistics, which we see frequently here, would be more meaningful to me if they were displayed (at least occasionally) against data from other so-called “mainline” denominations in the same area and perhaps some data on attendance at one-off or new church organizations. Is the decline attributable to new Christian churches siphoning off members, are younger church-goers opting for different liturgies, is church-going generally in a given community or diocese declining? It is difficult to assess whether these declines (which appear to be fairly consistent around the country) are peculiar to Episcopal dioceses/parishes, are more pronounced among them, or are part of some general trend away from denominational worship, at least as we came to know it in the last century. I have the subjective, but not particularly empirical, sense that Presbyterians, Methodists, and others are experiencing similar issues. I am also told that the Roman Catholic church has experienced measurable growth in similar time frames, but that much of the growth is fueled by immigration. I’m not sure whether this relatively frequent statement about RC growth is correct.
The data set that would make numbers like this meaningful would include some reference points outside a particular denomination, diocese or parish, I would think.
NoVA–You may be right about all the mainline churches, but they all have the same problem. Where the Gospel isn’t watered down to accommodate the culture, churches grow. In my town, 1st Presbyterian, which is a part of the new Covenant group is huge and growing. The downtown Methodist church which has consistently been against innovations in that church is growing. The downtown Episcopal Church which has resisted innovation is holding its own. The downtown RC church has mass from dawn to dusk, and they are all full. My Anglican church, which has been meeting for one month in a borrowed building, had 90 people yesterday, which is more than the average ASA for all of TEC. We have two PCA churches downtown hich are both big and growing. While this is all anecdotal, nonetheless, the problem with TEC seems very obvious.
Thanks to both NoVA (#1) and espeicially David Keller (#2).
I agree with the former that more data would be very helpful in putting these TEC-reported figures into context, but that’s where dedicated number crunchers like Statmann or robroy can really help, if they choose to chime in. I wouldn’t expect Kendall to take the time and trouble to dig up all that additional data. Just posting as much as he has is quite helpful.
David,
I’m glad to hear that things are going well for your newly launched new church. May I ask if it’s still affiliated with AMiA/PEAR? Just curious. Best wishes to all of you getting this new church off the ground.
Personally, I’ve stopped even using the term “mainline” anymore. For the grim and harsh fact is that the so-called Protestant mainline isn’t mainline anymore. It’s not yet the “sideline” that Jerry Falwell used to chide it for being, but it’s certainly “oldline” at best (consultant Lyle Schaller’s helpful term). And in my more cynical and feisty moments I will refer to the old historic “7 sisters” (TEC, PCUSA, UMC, ELCA, plus the American Baptist Convention/ABC, the Disciples of Christ, and the UCC) as “[i]ex-mainline[/i].”
Although it’s also mere local, anecdotal evidence, let me illustrate what I mean. I live in a suburb of Richmond called Chester, that has experienced rapid, steady growth over the last two decades, almost tripling in size. When we first moved here in 1992, and were church shopping, we quickly ruled out the local (one and only) TEC parish, which had no youth ministry worth mentioning (and we then had two teens at home). OTOH, the local Assembly of God church had an outstanding full-time youth pastor, even though the AoG church had an ASA of only about 150 (IIRC). Now that also happened to be the size of the TEC congregation back then.
Fast forward to today. The local TEC parish, St. John’s, has bucked the national trend (the parish is theologically moderate) by growing a bit. It now has an ASA of about 200, but obviously it hasn’t kept pace with the rapid population growth in the area. However, that AoG congregation (where we attended for our kid’s sakes) has MORE THAN TRIPLED during the last 20 years. It currently has an ASA of about 550, has gone through two big building expansions, and has an annual budget of about $1 million (a lot of tithers).
Now granted, one factor that has to be taken into account is that the Pentecostal church has been blessed to enjoy superb leadership under two of the finest pastors I’ve ever known, and so a good deal of the rapid, steady growth of that congregation is due to their excellent leadership and not merely a reflection of their more conservative theology.
But the fact remains that the local AoG church FAR OUTGREW the local TEC parish, when both shared the same environment. So which one is “mainline” in our suburb, and which one is the also-ran, or wannabe?
And if someone objects that such an anecdote is hardly a reliable sample and may be quite unrepresentative (which is true enough), just take a look at the national stats for the two denominations. TEC has dwindled badly in the last 30 years, while the AoG has more than doubled in size nationwide. Today, TEC claims a membership of less than 2 million, but the more reliable gauge of size is that it has a national ASA of less than 700K. Now compare the figures for the AoG. The Assemblies claims only some 1.2 million members, but that number doesn’t include children (they practice believer’s baptism of course, so kids don’t count as “members”). However, the AoG has a category called “adherents” that is roughtly comparable to TEC’s “members.”
So how many “adherents” does the AoG have? Well, about 3 million! And as for their ASA, it’s over 1.8 million nationwide now, almost THREE TIMES larger than TEC.
In light of all that, which denomination is now the larger or “mainline” one? Now granted, the TEC congregation in Chester is significantly better educated and more wealthy than the local AoG one, as is also true nationwide when you compare Episcopalians and Pentecostals. I don’t think that local AoG church has a single doctor or lawyer in that thriving, growing congregation, but it’s also not confined to blue collar folks, as Pentecostalism used to be a few generations ago.
The point being that I think the very language we use can easily become dated and obsolete. The so-called Protestant “mainline” sure isn’t all that it used to be. “[i]OLD-line[/i]” seems a more apt description to me, stressing not only that these once proud denoms used to be the major, dominant groups in American Protestantism, but the term “oldline” also underlines the sad graying of those once dominant traditions. The national mean age in the PCUSA is now 61! Man, that’s really bad. In TEC, a whopping 30% of its members are now age 65+, whereas only 13% of the national population is that old. Yep, oldline fits better. The former “mainline” denominations have shot themselves in the foot and can only blame themselves for their disastrous and relentless decline over the last 40 years. And yes, that has everything to do with the catastrophic turn to the left (theologically, politically, and culturally) taken by the leadership of those once dominant groups.
David Handy+
There was a good post on T19 some time ago that went through the numbers on the old mainline churches and their decline. The point was made that all were declining — but that TEC was declining at a much faster and higher percentage rate than the other “declines.”
The current TEC leadership has done that to themselves, of course. The trend is towards 1) overall less church participation in an increasingly secular US, 2) what participation there is going more towards non-mainline churches particularly in the more populist denominations, and 3) TEC’s outperforming and outdoing the other mainlines in its repeated acts of hara kiri.
Hey — TEC *is* better than other mainlines at one thing!
David–All good points. My secretary goes to an Independent Baptist Church which started about 10 years ago with zero and now has about 9,000 members. As for my church, St. Paul’s Greenville, we are PEAR/USA. We aren’t using AMiA anymore for several reasons. We started in the fall with meetings on Sunday nights, and started regular Sunday worship on 1/15. One other point–when I was on the SCDME and really into statistics, the median age of Episcopalians was 54, which was my age at the time. It is now 62, which is my age now. That’s a little creepy/scary! It also means young people are leaving or simply not coming. St. Paul’s had 11 young children yesterday with their young parents. You may draw your own conclusion on that piece of datum.
Kendall,
I know of at least two dioceses in the State of Oregon. Would it not be more helpful when comparing the Episcopal Church within the state to provide the numbers for all dioceses within it’s borders? I’m not sure that it would paint a “better” picture, but perhaps a more accurate one. Thanks for all you do!
Dio of Oregon had a fairly easy 2002 through 2010 experience with ASA down 15 percent, but more dismal with Marraiges down 27 percent and Infant Baptisms down 37 percent. Churches fell from 77 to 74. And for Eastern Oregon, ASA fell about 8 percent while Marraiges fell by 52 percent andd Infant Baptisms by 42 percent. Churches fell from 23 to 22 and the 22 churches produced only 14 Marriages and 24 Infant Baptisms in 2010. It is time to merge the two dioceses.
David+’s “old-line” seems descriptive, adequate, precise and appropriate. I will adopt it for all future use on this subject.
David Keller (#5),
Thanks for the info about your new church. May it grow and thrive! Alas, I was afraid the average or mean age in TEC was up to about 62 now, but I hadn’t seen any official confirmation of it. FWIW, that puts the national mean for TEC one year above the PCUSA’s 61. Another sign, that as Sarah pointed out above, TEC is outdoing most of the rest of the so-called “mainline” (or oldline) denom’s. However, I suspect figures are even worse for the UCC (wink).
Thanks also to NoVA Scout for the kind words (#8). Alas, if the national mean age of Episcopalians is the pathetically high 62, then it is an OLDline group indeed. But we all knew that.
David Handy+
ACNA only lists 4 congregations in Oregon, of which three are APA mission partners.