Category : France

(WSJ) How one French Trader and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024

The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.

By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic “whale” known only as Théo.

Trump’s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Théo’s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Election Day that “Prediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,” giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls showed the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver wrote on election morning: “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,” thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.

Nope.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Economy, France, Office of the President, Politics in General

(WSJ) German Political Crisis Leaves Europe Rudderless Ahead of Trump’s Return

After years of internal strife, it was a dispute about economic policy that finally toppled the German government. Now Europe is facing months of political paralysis just as its many simmering crises are coming to a boil.

With both France and Germany led by minority governments, the continent’s key powers are facing months of impotent introspection as challenges pile up, from a hostile second Trump administration to the economic headwinds from China and Russia’s steady advances in Ukraine. 

The political currents tossing governments across Europe are similar to those that propelled Donald Trump to win back the presidency, the Senate and very possibly the House. Voters on both sides of the Atlantic are in a restive mood, unhappy with the economy and unimpressed by politicians’ efforts to control a surge in illegal immigration.

But while America’s overall economy is strong, Europe’s recovery from its recent economic shocks has been lackluster, especially in the industrial heartlands of Germany.

Read it all.

Posted in Europe, Foreign Relations, France, Germany, Politics in General

(Telegraph) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard–has the French president’s electoral gamble sealed the euro’s fate as an orphan currency?

The breathtaking events unfolding in France expose all the old deformities of the half-finished euro project. They revive the poisonous internal politics that have long bedeviled monetary union, pitting Teutonic creditors against Latin debtors with conflicting morality tales.

The ECB’s untested Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) allows the governing council to buy distressed bonds on its own authority, but only for countries that pursue (a) “sound fiscal and macroeconomic policies”; (b) are not “subject to an excessive deficit procedure”; (c) do not have “severe macroeconomic imbalances”; (d) where the “trajectory of public debt is sustainable”; and (e) where stress is “not warranted by country-specific fundamentals”.

France fails on most counts, and is on course to fail on every single one under any of the scenarios likely to emerge on July 7, including the pre-insurrectional chaos of a state with no functioning government at all.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Euro, Europe, Foreign Relations, France, History, Politics in General

Remembering D-Day–General Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Speech

Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Forces:

You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers-in-arms on other Fronts you will bring about the destruction of the German war machine, the elimination of Nazi tyranny over oppressed peoples of Europe, and security for ourselves in a free world.

Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well trained, well equipped and battle-hardened. He will fight savagely.

Read it all (audio link also available).

Posted in America/U.S.A., France, History, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President

Remembering D-Day–Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s D-Day Prayer on June 6, 1944

“My Fellow Americans:

“Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our Allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

“And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

“Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

“Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.
“They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest — until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men’s souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

“For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and goodwill among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

“Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

“And for us at home — fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas, whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them — help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

“Many people have urged that I call the nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

“Give us strength, too — strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

“And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

“And, O Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in Thee; faith in our sons; faith in each other; faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment — let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

“With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogances. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace — a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

“Thy will be done, Almighty God.

“Amen.”

You can listen to the actual audio if you want here and today of all days is the day to do that. Also, there is more on background and another audio link there.–KSH.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Death / Burial / Funerals, France, History, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, Spirituality/Prayer

A Collect for the 80th Anniversary of D-Day from the Church of England

God our refuge and strength, as we remember those
who faced danger and death in Normandy, eighty years ago,
grant us courage to pursue what is right, the will to work with others,
and strength to overcome tyranny and oppression,
through Jesus Christ, to whom belong dominion and glory,
now and for ever. Amen.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Church History, Death / Burial / Funerals, England / UK, Europe, France, Germany, Globalization, History, Military / Armed Forces, Spirituality/Prayer

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Joan of Arc

Holy God, whose power is made perfect in weakness: we honor thy calling of Jeanne d’Arc, who, though young, rose up in valor to bear thy standard for her country, and endured with grace and fortitude both victory and defeat; and we pray that we, like Jeanne, may bear witness to the truth that is in us to friends and enemies alike, and, encouraged by the companionship of thy saints, give ourselves bravely to the struggle for justice in our time; through Christ our Savior, who with thee and the Holy Spirit livest and reignest, one God, now and for ever. Amen.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

Eternal God, the whole cosmos sings of thy glory, from the dividing of a single cell to the vast expanse of interstellar space: We offer thanks for thy theologian and scientist Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, who didst perceive the divine in the evolving creation. Enable us to become faithful stewards of thy divine works and heirs of thy everlasting kingdom; through Jesus Christ, the firstborn of all creation, who with thee and the Holy Spirit livest and reignest, one God, for ever and ever. Amen.

Posted in Church History, France, Science & Technology, Spirituality/Prayer

(Washington Post) Paris siege: French farmers encircle capital with an angry blockade

It looked like a military campaign. The farmers called it “Operation Paris Siege,” while the French interior minister ordered an “important defensive system” to protect the capital and its airports.

On Monday, angry agriculturalists and their allies deployed their tractors in an attempt to surround Paris, choking major roadways and disrupting not only traffic and trade, but also politics and normal life.

Farmers are emerging as the protest movement of the moment. In multiple countries across Europe, they have been driving their combines and harvesters into the streets to oppose cuts to subsidies and new regulations, some of them designed to reduce climate-changing emissions.

France, of course, is deeply familiar with protests. But as Paris prepares to host the Olympics this summer, and as the country’s ruling political centrists gird for a challenge from the far right in European Parliament elections, the farmer protests have the potential to be particularly destabilizing.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Dieting/Food/Nutrition, Economy, France, Politics in General

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Hilary of Poitiers

O Lord our God, who didst raise up thy servant Hilary to be a champion of the catholic faith: Keep us steadfast in that true faith which we professed at our baptism, that we may rejoice in having thee for our Father, and may abide in thy Son, in the fellowship of the Holy Spirit; thou who livest and reignest for ever and ever.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer, The Trinity: Father, Son and Holy Spirit

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Martin of Tours

Lord God of hosts, who didst clothe thy servant Martin the soldier with the spirit of sacrifice, and didst set him as a bishop in thy Church to be a defender of the catholic faith: Give us grace to follow in his holy steps, that at the last we may be found clothed with righteousness in the dwellings of peace; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, now and for ever.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer

A BBC report from Inside coup-hit Niger

Adama Zourkaleini Maiga is soft-spoken, but her eyes suggest steely determination.

The single mother-of-two lives in a quiet, middle-class part of Niger’s capital Niamey, but is originally from Tillabéry, one of the regions worst-hit by violence.

“My mother’s cousin was chief of a village called Téra,” she tells me over lunch. “He was assassinated just seven months ago.

“The terrorists were looking for him and when they found out he’d rented a car to flee, they caught up with him and killed him. They slit his throat. It was a real shock for our whole family.”

Read it all.

Posted in Africa, Foreign Relations, France, Military / Armed Forces, Niger, Politics in General, Terrorism

(EF) Only 40% in France want a religious ceremony when they die

More French believe in reincarnation and less in heaven, hell, and resurrection.

A survey conducted in September 2023 by IFOP shows new trends in how people in France think about their own death, burial, and what they expect to find (or not) in another life.

According to the 1,013 people aged 18 or more that have been asked, only 31% believe in life after death, compared to 37% in 1970. Most of these (69%) identify with a certain faith, mainly Christianity.

One of the biggest changes is that more 32% of those who believe in an afterlife, believe it will be in the form or reincarnation (up from 22% in 2004). According to the survey, the typical profile of those who believe in reincarnation arepeople aged 25-34, Roman Catholics, with low income and with conservative socio-political views.

Less people believe in heaven and hell (32%, up from 30% in 1980), and resurrection (24%, down from 30% in 1980).

Read it all.

Posted in France, Other Faiths, Religion & Culture

(Economist) Why France is banning Muslim clothing in schools (again)

Yet French Muslims often feel that such rules unfairly target Islam. The new abaya ban, says Muslim Rights Action, a French anti-discrimination group that is trying to overturn the decision, risks stigmatising Muslim pupils and introducing ethnic profiling. The new rule has won approval on the right and far-right, although it has divided the left, parts of which also remain firmly attached to the defence of laïcité.

The government argues that it is trying to minimise discrimination in the classroom by keeping religious faith out. It is not a question of casual clothing choices, it says, but a response to an attempt to spread hardline political Islamism in France. Gilles Kepel, a scholar of Islamism, says the wearing of the abaya in schools is part of an Islamist strategy “to test the limits” in France. In the face of new pressures, the government says, headteachers need to have more powers to enforce secular rules. Liberals outside France will, as ever, find the rule a baffling distraction. The French consider that their country’s secular character is at stake.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Posted in Children, Education, Ethics / Moral Theology, France, Law & Legal Issues, Religion & Culture

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Saint Maria Skobtsova

O Creator and Giver of Life, who didst crown thy martyr Maria Skobtsova with glory and didst give her as an example of service to the suffering and poor even unto death: Teach us to love Christ in our neighbors, and thereby battle injustice and evil with the light of the Resurrection; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who livest and reignest with thee and the Holy Ghost, one God in glory everlasting. Amen.

Posted in Church History, Death / Burial / Funerals, France, Germany, Russia, Spirituality/Prayer

Remembering D-Day–Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s D-Day Prayer on June 6, 1944

“My Fellow Americans:

“Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our Allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

“And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

“Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

“Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.
“They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest — until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men’s souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

“For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and goodwill among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

“Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

“And for us at home — fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas, whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them — help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

“Many people have urged that I call the nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

“Give us strength, too — strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

“And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

“And, O Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in Thee; faith in our sons; faith in each other; faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment — let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

“With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogances. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace — a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

“Thy will be done, Almighty God.

“Amen.”

You can listen to the actual audio if you want here and today of all days is the day to do that. Also, there is more on background and another audio link there.–KSH.

Posted in America/U.S.A., France, History, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Joan of Arc

Holy God, whose power is made perfect in weakness: we honor thy calling of Jeanne d’Arc, who, though young, rose up in valor to bear thy standard for her country, and endured with grace and fortitude both victory and defeat; and we pray that we, like Jeanne, may bear witness to the truth that is in us to friends and enemies alike, and, encouraged by the companionship of thy saints, give ourselves bravely to the struggle for justice in our time; through Christ our Savior, who with thee and the Holy Spirit livest and reignest, one God, now and for ever. Amen.

Posted in Church History, Death / Burial / Funerals, France, Spirituality/Prayer

A Prayer to Begin the Day from Hilary of Poitiers

O Lord our God, who didst raise up thy servant Hilary to be a champion of the catholic faith: Keep us steadfast in that true faith which we professed at our baptism, that we may rejoice in having thee for our Father, and may abide in thy Son, in the fellowship of the Holy Spirit; thou who livest and reignest for ever and ever.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer, The Trinity: Father, Son and Holy Spirit

(WSJ) Jason Gay–Messi, Mbappé, and a World Cup Masterpiece

It was a clash too good to be true, in real time. The first 60 minutes felt like a coronation. The second 60 minutes felt like holding on to the hood of a speeding car.

As for Messi and Mbappé: spectacular. As sports observers we harp so much on the failures and shortcomings of superstars—the great players who do not deliver in the biggest moments. It’s empty theater of scolding and schadenfreude, because it’s not what we actually want.

To see two of the greatest to ever do it—a 35-year-old generational superstar, and his 23-year-old successor—play at the height of their powers, is what we want, because it’s unadulterated joy.

Messi, seeking the first World Cup title, played with incandescent fury. Mbappé, well-defended and invisible early, burst back almost single-handedly to make it a match.

Messi was Messi, Mbappé was Mbappé. It was all you could ask for.

I haven’t even gotten to the scale of all this—how a World Cup is truly worldly, with the heart rates and birthrates of continents rising and falling with each shift in momentum. It all means so much more.

Read it all.

Posted in Argentina, France, Globalization, Qatar, Sports

Congratulations to Argentina and Lionel Messi who beat France to win the 2022 World cup today

Posted in Argentina, France, Globalization, Qatar, Sports

Congratulations to France who beat Morocco in the World Cup Semi-final today

Posted in France, Globalization, Morocco, Qatar, Sports

Congratulations to France who beat England in the World Cup to Become the Fourth Semi-finalists

Posted in England / UK, France, Globalization, Sports

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Martin of Tours

Lord God of hosts, who didst clothe thy servant Martin the soldier with the spirit of sacrifice, and didst set him as a bishop in thy Church to be a defender of the catholic faith: Give us grace to follow in his holy steps, that at the last we may be found clothed with righteousness in the dwellings of peace; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, now and for ever.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Therese of Lisieux

O Gracious Father, who didst call thy servant Therese to a life of fervent prayer; Give unto us the spirit of prayer and zeal for the ministry of the Gospel, that the love of Christ may be known throughout all the world; through the same, Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

Posted in Church History, France, Spirituality/Prayer

(BBC) Loire Valley: Intense European heatwave parches France’s ‘garden’

The Loire Valley is known as “the Garden of France”. But the garden is withering.

France’s worst drought since records began has turned lush vegetation into arid fields of brown crops, shrivelling under what is now the fourth heatwave of the year.

In Vincent Favreau’s vegetable farm, where he produces food for a hundred families in the area, the parched earth has stunted the growth of the cabbages. His potato plants are burnt out, producing just half the crop of a normal year.

“Either the vegetables will die of thirst, or they won’t develop enough during this crucial period of growth,” he said, sifting through the dry soil, which he hasn’t been able to water since restrictions came in two weeks ago.

“With this heat and wind, we can’t compensate for what the sun is evaporating. I’ve never seen something like this in my twenty-two years here. If it doesn’t rain within two months, it’ll be a disaster.”

Read it all.

Posted in Climate Change, Weather, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, France

(Wired) The Unsolved Mystery Attack on Internet Cables in Paris

On April 27, an unknown individual or group deliberately cut crucial long-distance internet cables across multiple sites near Paris, plunging thousands of people into a connectivity blackout. The vandalism was one of the most significant internet infrastructure attacks in France’s history and highlights the vulnerability of key communications technologies.

Now, months after the attacks took place, French internet companies and telecom experts familiar with the incidents say the damage was more wide-ranging than initially reported and extra security measures are needed to prevent future attacks. In total, around 10 internet and infrastructure companies—from ISPs to cable owners—were impacted by the attacks, telecom insiders say.

The assault against the internet started during the early hours of April 27. “The people knew what they were doing,” says Michel Combot, the managing director of the French Telecoms Federation, which is made up of more than a dozen internet companies. In the space of around two hours, cables were surgically cut and damaged in three locations around the French capital city—to the north, south, and east—including near Disneyland Paris.

“Those were what we call backbone cables that were mostly connecting network service from Paris to other locations in France, in three directions,” Combot says. “That impacted the connectivity in several parts of France.” As a result, internet connections dropped out for some people. Others experienced slower connections, including on mobile networks, as internet traffic was rerouted around the severed cables.

All three incidents are believed to have happened at roughly the same time and were conducted in similar ways—distinguishing them from other attacks against telecom towers and internet infrastructure.

Read it all.

Posted in Blogging & the Internet, Corporations/Corporate Life, France, Science & Technology

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Saint Maria Skobtsova

O Creator and Giver of Life, who didst crown thy martyr Maria Skobtsova with glory and didst give her as an example of service to the suffering and poor even unto death: Teach us to love Christ in our neighbors, and thereby battle injustice and evil with the light of the Resurrection; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who livest and reignest with thee and the Holy Ghost, one God in glory everlasting. Amen.

Posted in Church History, Death / Burial / Funerals, France, Germany, Russia, Spirituality/Prayer

Rafael Nadal defeats Casper Ruud for his 14th French Open title

His 22nd Grand Slam title. Astounding.

Posted in France, Norway, Spain, Sports

A Prayer for the Feast Day of Joan of Arc

Holy God, whose power is made perfect in weakness: we honor thy calling of Jeanne d’Arc, who, though young, rose up in valor to bear thy standard for her country, and endured with grace and fortitude both victory and defeat; and we pray that we, like Jeanne, may bear witness to the truth that is in us to friends and enemies alike, and, encouraged by the companionship of thy saints, give ourselves bravely to the struggle for justice in our time; through Christ our Savior, who with thee and the Holy Spirit livest and reignest, one God, now and for ever. Amen.

Posted in Church History, Death / Burial / Funerals, France, Spirituality/Prayer

Congratulations to Real Madrid, 2022 Champions League Winners

Posted in England / UK, France, Spain, Sports