The action is now moving beyond America. With over two-fifths of the world overweight or obese, demand for glp-1 drugs is voracious. Pharma companies are racing to make them work as pills, which would be cheaper to produce than jabs, and to reduce their side-effects. Generic versions for older GLP-1 agonists are entering the market. Semaglutide is to come off patent in Brazil, China and India in 2026; eight such drugs are in the works in China. That is just as well. As incomes in the developing world have risen and life has become more sedentary, people’s waistlines are catching up with those in the West.

Curbing obesity would be consequential. Yet glp-1 drugs promise to do much more. Overweight patients on semaglutide have been found to suffer fewer heart attacks and strokes; the benefits, astonishingly, seem to be largely independent of how much weight is lost. Tirzepatide improves sleep apnoea. Trials show that glp-1 agonists reduce chronic kidney disease in diabetics; and there are signs they may lessen brain shrinkage and cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s. Studies of health records suggest that they may help with addictions, too; people already on glp-1 drugs in America were less likely to overdose on opioids or abuse cannabis or alcohol. Researchers are even talking, in hushed tones, of their anti-ageing effects.

How can one class of drug do so much? As our briefing explains this week, not only do the drugs act in the gut, but they also bind to receptors all over the body and in the brain. 

Read it all.

I’ve been saying this for quite some time: GLP-1 agonists are miracle “everything drugs”! it’s likely there’ll be more of these types of drugs soon

“It’s not just obesity. Drugs like Ozempic will change the world
As they become cheaper, they promise to improve billions of lives” pic.twitter.com/61tc17dKRE

— Derya Unutmaz, MD (@DeryaTR_) October 24, 2024

Private Medicare insurers got about $4.2 billion in extra federal payments in 2023 for diagnoses from home visits the companies initiated, even though they led to no treatment, a new inspector general’s report says.

The extra payments were triggered by diagnoses documented based on the visits, including potentially inaccurate ones, for which patients received no other medical services, the report says. Insurers offering private plans under Medicare, known as Medicare Advantage, are paid more when patients have costly conditions.

Each visit was worth $1,869 on average to the insurers, according to the Office of Inspector General for the Department of Health and Human Services. The findings are similar to those of a Wall Street Journal investigation published in August. It showed that insurers between 2019 and 2021 pocketed an average of $1,818 for each visit based on diagnoses for which people received no other treatment.

The OIG recommended in Thursday’s report for the first time that Medicare restrict or even cut off payments for diagnoses from these visits. 

Read it all.

It is official now that the @HHSOIG has determined that #MedicareAdvantage health plans w/ @UHC leading the way received over $4B in diagnosis upcoding from home visits. Medicare Paid Insurers Billions for Questionable Home Diagnoses, Watchdog Finds https://t.co/OO1R4Alcwk

— Ed Gaines (@EdGainesIII) October 24, 2024

Less than a mile from Singapore’s luxurious Changi Airport sits a rather less glamorous business park. Residents of the industrial estate include freight and logistics firms, as well as the back offices of several banks. One building is a little different, however. Behind a glossy onyx facade, layers of security and imposing steel doors, sits more than $1bn in gold, silver and other treasures. “The Reserve” hosts dozens of private vaults, thousands of safe deposit boxes and a cavernous storage room where precious metals sit on shelves rising three storeys above the ground.

After four years of retrofitting, the complex is almost complete. Its grand opening will come at an opportune moment: gold is in the midst of an extraordinary renaissance. Over the past year investors have piled into the metal, driving its price up by 38% to over $2,700 per troy ounce—a record high (see chart 1). The buzz has reached unusual places: gold bars have hit the shelves of Costco, an American retailer, and CU, a South Korean convenience-store chain, as the resurgence of inflation and fears of war drive consumer enthusiasm. Central bankers are also getting involved, as financial fragmentation increases appetite for an ancient asset. The world has entered a new golden age.

Read it all.

What the surging gold price says about a dangerous world https://t.co/2oLSBR8QCy

— YD (@Enhance___) October 23, 2024

Canada’s fertility rate hit its lowest rate in recorded history for a second consecutive year in 2023. The spinoff impacts of this are already being felt – with Canada’s aging workforce joining a swelling retirement-age population and increasing economic pressure to meet this groups’ needs and entitlements.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds insight into the reasons behind lagging birth rates. ARI asked 1,300 Canadian adults younger than 50 if they plan to have children, and if not, why? Among this group, one-in-five are definitely (21%) going to have at least one child, while one-in-three (32%) say they may still do so. Within these two groups of potential parents, fully half say that they have delayed having kids longer than they ideally would have wanted. This rises to three-quarters (74%) among 35- to 44-year-olds. The top reasons driving delays are both societal and personal. For many, the search for the right partner has just not borne fruit (40%). For others, however, uncertainty surrounding their finances and the job market (41%) the cost of childcare (33%) and the housing affordability crisis (31%) are all drivers of the decision to wait.

Even among those who are definitely not going to have children (37% of the 1,300 adults surveyed) these worries about childcare and cost are a factor. One-quarter among this group say they decided not to have kids because the spectre of childcare costs was too daunting (25%), while one-in-five (18%) said it was too hard to foresee having proper housing to start a family.

With immigration playing a larger role year over year in sustaining the population – and criticism of immigration policy evidently growing – the historically low birth rate trend divides Canadians. They’re equally likely to feel that the birth rate is (43%) and isn’t (42%) a crisis.

Read it all.

"Half of Canadians who want children have waited longer than they’d like, due largely to cost." –@angusreidorg #cdnpoli #generationalfairness https://t.co/XtH9zRh2nA pic.twitter.com/9BbZg6CFEM

— Generation Squeeze (@GenSqueeze) October 17, 2024

 More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question.

The latest findings are from a Sept. 16-28 poll, which also finds differences among partisans’ perceptions on this measure — Democrats (72%) are much more likely than independents (35%) or Republicans (7%) to view themselves as “better off.”

The higher-than-usual percentage of U.S. adults who say they are worse off this year is largely owing to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to say this than opponents of the incumbent president’s party had been in prior election years. Likewise, the higher-than-usual percentage of “better off” responses in 2020, when Donald Trump was in office, was attributable to Republicans’ much greater likelihood to give that response than supporters of the incumbent president’s party did in prior election years.

Read it all.

More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago.

New data: https://t.co/TAz6shizZE pic.twitter.com/2qpEG10tGC

— Gallup (@Gallup) October 19, 2024

Fears of violence have left some US election boards struggling to hire poll workers with less than three weeks to go before Americans vote in November’s presidential election.

Election administrators in battleground states Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin are still recruiting temporary staff to set up polling equipment, sign in voters and report results, according to Power the Polls, a non-partisan poll worker recruitment group. Officials in Maryland, Ohio and Florida are also still hiring staff for election day.

“The challenge [comes from concerns about] the safety and security of poll workers,” said Isaac Cramer, executive director of the election board in Charleston County, South Carolina. “I know that was a top concern of people who have left.”

Read it all.

Ongelofelijk: US polling places struggle to find workers after surge in threats. Four in 10 election administrators have added further security measures such as bulletproof glass and panic buttons. https://t.co/M4FbpXFjZI

— Hella Hueck  (@hellahueck) October 21, 2024

The Economist has spoken to a range of people with first-hand knowledge of Iran’s oil system. To check and verify what they told us, and flesh out the detail, we then sought information from other sources, including former sanctions officials, Iranian insiders, intelligence professionals and WikiIran, a third-party website soliciting leaks. Our investigation shows that the country has built sprawling shadow financial channels, which run from its oil rigs to the virtual vaults of its central bank. China, Iran’s main buyer, is an architect of this system, and its chief beneficiary. Global banks and financial hubs, often unknowingly, are used as vital cogs. A source familiar with Iran’s books says that, as of July, it had $53bn, €17bn ($19bn) and smaller pots of other currencies lying abroad.

Although enforcement has weakened in recent years, Iran is subject to the broadest sanctions America has imposed on any country. Aimed at forcing Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment and funding of terrorism, they target swathes of its economy, as well as the government. No other country imposes such stringent sanctions, so, in theory, most can deal with Iran. In practice, few do so openly, as America bans its firms not just from trading with Iran, but also with foreigners that knowingly do so. It is especially tough for Iran to receive and move dollars, as every such transaction, almost anywhere in the world, must eventually be cleared by an American bank.

But our report shows that, with patchy enforcement, determination and help from a greedy partner, a country under a de facto global embargo can end up flouting it on a cosmic scale. Many of Iran’s tactics are reminiscent of those a drug cartel would use to market products and recycle proceeds into other dark enterprises, often via seemingly legitimate businesses. Iran’s subterranean oil system is governed by rules as much as by threats. The task is to construct an elaborate charade that will dupe sanctions-enforcers.

Read it all.

Iran's money laundering network (simplified by the Economist) https://t.co/oIUs0Pjo3A pic.twitter.com/qI1FZb8okf

— Dr. Paul J. Sullivan (@DrPJSullivan) October 17, 2024

As US Election Day approaches, inflation is largely tamed and wage gains have lifted incomes. Yet the economy remains the most pressing issue in the presidential race for one big reason: Increasingly, for many Americans, the long-standing building blocks of middle-class life feel frustratingly unattainable.

The standard 20% down payment on a median-priced home now costs 83% of a year’s income for the typical family ready to buy a home, up from 65% on the eve of the 2016 election, according to Bloomberg calculations. Buying a new car takes almost two extra weeks of work for the median household compared to eight years ago. Child care then cost the same family about a quarter of its weekly income. Now it swallows up more than a third.

And while the cost of attending college has gone down as a share of income in recent years, a median household can expect to pay 75% of its annual income for a private college and more than third for a public in-state university. That is up significantly from when many of today’s parents went to college themselves — and, in turn, can make the price tag look unnerving.

Read it all.

The Math Says It’s Getting Harder to Break Into the American Middle Class

Some major milestones are becoming frustratingly unattainable for many families – Bloomberg https://t.co/ncqA4FJ6g4?

— Jose A. Briones (@Brioneja) October 18, 2024

Inflation seems under control. The job market remains healthy. Wages, including at the bottom end of the scale, are rising. But this is just a lull. There is a storm approaching, and Americans are not prepared.

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.

There should be little surprise in this, since all these are evolving slowly in plain sight. What has not been fully understood is how these changes in combination are likely to transform the lives of working people in ways not seen since the late 1970s, when wage inequality surged and wages at the low end stagnated or even fell.

Together, if handled correctly, these challenges could remake work and deliver much higher productivity, wages and opportunities — something the computer revolution promised and never fulfilled. If we mismanage the moment, they could make good, well-paying jobs scarcer and the economy less dynamic. Our decisions over the next five to 10 years will determine which path we take.

Read it all.

America is sleepwalking into an economic storm.
— Daron Acemoglu

GIFT ARTICLE

Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape our economy: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy.https://t.co/pf82B0DE9N

— Walter Appling (@WalterAppling) October 17, 2024

[According to Barclays’ economists…] The economic circumstances facing China have parallels with Japan’s experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. This created the term ‘Japanification’, which is typically defined as a combination of slow growth, low inflation, and a low policy rate, accompanied by deteriorating demographic trends.

To measure this phenomena, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which measured the sum of the inflation rate, nominal policy rate, and GDP gap. To apply to China’s economy, we have adjusted this index, replacing the GDP gap with working-age population growth, as the estimation methods of GDP gaps differ across nations and working-age population is by far the most fundamental determinant for long-term growth. Our amended index shows that China’s economy has become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s recently, albeit marginally.

This not a surprise to us. A demographic drag, the emergence and collapse of asset bubbles, debt overhang, zombie companies, deflationary pressures from excess capacity/high debt, and high youth unemployment, to name a few, are some of the notable similarities between the economies of China and Japan post their bubbles.

Read it all.

"The “Japanification” of China continues to be a big theme, with a lot of eerie parallels right down to stimulus proving wanting. Here’s the latest symptom" https://t.co/tlxjGqqgnd pic.twitter.com/TnKwearGl0

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 17, 2024

Few sights

have better captured America’s world-beating ingenuity. On October 13th a giant booster rocket built by SpaceX hurtled to the edge of the atmosphere before plunging back to Earth and being neatly caught by the gantry tower from which, only minutes earlier, it had taken off. Thanks to this marvel of engineering, big rockets could become reusable and space exploration cheaper and bolder. Yet, just as the launch was a testimony to American enterprise, so Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, captures all that is going wrong with its politics. In his support for Donald Trump, Mr Musk has spread misinformation about voter fraud and hurricane relief and derided his opponents as ill-intentioned idiots.

America, too, continues to rack up a stellar economic performance even as its politics gets more poisonous. As they prepare to go to the polls in fewer than 20 days’ time, Republicans and Democrats have never mistrusted or disagreed with each other more. Against that gloomy backdrop, can America’s breathtaking economy possibly stay aloft?

Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today….

Read it all.

'Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust.' https://t.co/YjpRyqcC5v pic.twitter.com/gon4gqDtQm

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 17, 2024

Heading into an election where the economy is top of mind for many voters, pastors say finances have been difficult at their church this year.

A Lifeway Research study found 66% of U.S. Protestant pastors say the economy is very or somewhat negatively impacting their church. The two in three pastors who report a negative economic impact is the highest since 2011, and the 14% who say the impact has been very negative is the highest ever recorded in the 15-year history of the study.

Around one in 14 (7%) say their church is seeing a positive impact. A quarter (24%) aren’t seeing any impact either way, and 3% aren’t sure.

Last year, 50% said they experienced a negative impact, 40% no impact and 8% a positive impact. In 2022, 52% reported a negative effect, 40% said it was having no effect and 7% saw a positive influence.

“National trends of a favorable stock market along with unfavorable inflation and interest can influence a local congregation’s finances, but so do more local factors that contribute to economic problems or prosperity in the church’s community,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “In general, pastors have turned a little more negative in describing economic forces impacting their church this year.”

Read it all.

66% of U.S. Protestant pastors say the economy is very or somewhat negatively impacting their church, according to @LifewayResearch.
https://t.co/LlAFg38CxC

— The Pathway (@mbcpathway) October 17, 2024

The Church Commissioners excluded, on ethical grounds, more than 800 companies from potential investment last year, including, they report, 38 companies that failed to engage with them over connections with Russia.

The figures are set out in their latest stewardship report, An Ethical and Responsible Approach, published last week. It is prepared annually to meet the reporting obligations of the UK Financial Reporting Council’s Stewardship Code and the Principles for Responsible Investment.

The total endowment fund was valued at £10.4 billion at the end of 2023 — up from £10.3 billion at the end of 2022 (News, 2 June 2023). The report covers the first year of the 2023-25 triennium, in which the Commissioners have committed themselves to distributing £1.2 billion in support of the Church’s mission — an increase of about 30 per cent on the previous triennium (News, 7 June).

Read it all.

The Church Commissioners disinvested, on ethical grounds, from more than 800 companies last year, including, they report, 133 companies that failed to engage with them over connections with Russia https://t.co/pPbbJCy0N8

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 15, 2024

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global gross domestic product, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor — an overview of global public finance developments — the IMF said it expects debt to approach 100% of GDP by 2030, and it warns that governments will need to make tough decisions to stabilize borrowing.

Debt is tipped to increase in the US, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa and UK, according to the IMF report, which urges governments to rein in debt.

“Waiting is risky: country experiences show that high debt can trigger adverse market reactions and constrains room for budgetary maneuver in the face of negative shocks,” it said.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the IMF https://t.co/3beTtprVZ9

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 15, 2024

AtaLoss was founded in 2016 by Canon Yvonne Tulloch. When she was suddenly widowed, she realised how little she and those around her knew about bereavement, its difficulties and needs, and how hard it was to find understanding support. Yvonne had been trained in funeral ministry, but grief tends to be felt most in the months following the funeral.
 

As a society, we’ve not been good at talking about death. We’re loss-averse and death-denying. The two world wars and medical and economic advances are the major causes of our death denial. Death’s an inconvenient truth, and we avoid talking about it because it’s too painful. In a culture where we worship at the altar of success, losing people feels like failure.
 

We don’t even realise that we need to deal with grief, though it affects our lives so deeply.
 

We’re beginning to realise that change is needed, though, and there’s talk in the media about death, but this tends to be about preparing for death, not grief. We need to understand bereavement better — its profound impact on our physical and mental health — to help those left behind.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

Click below to read the @ChurchTimes interview with Roger Greene, Deputy CEO of @AtaLosscharity as he chats about his role,@thebereavementj, and his book Dancing When the Lights Go Out.https://t.co/0ynQ5bjVt3

— Loss and HOPE (@LossandHOPE1) October 11, 2024

The consumers powering U.S. economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder and likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists.

In the two pre-pandemic years, average household consumption was growing at a similar pace across all income groups, the new Fed study of retail spending shows. But since then, spending patterns have diverged sharply.

In the initial Covid period through mid-2021, low-income households increased spending faster than others with the help of public stimulus programs. But their consumption fell back after the last pandemic checks went out, while middle- and especially higher-income Americans have powered ahead. Overall, since the start of 2018, high-earning households raised spending more than twice as much as the low-income group. 

Read it all.

The consumers powering US economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder, according to research by Fed economists https://t.co/ypEjW5Buyz

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) October 11, 2024

The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.

Voters view Donald Trump as better able than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, 54% versus 45%. Trump also has an edge on perceptions of his handling of immigration (+9 percentage points) and foreign affairs (+5), while Harris is seen as better on climate change (+26), abortion (+16) and healthcare (+10). The candidates are evenly matched on voters’ impressions of who would better address gun policy.

Just under half of voters overall agree with Trump (49%) or Harris (47%) on the issues that matter most to them.

Read it all.

“Nuclear Nightmare,” screamed the headline in Time magazine on April 9th 1979. One of the two reactors at a nuclear-power plant at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania had suffered an accident. The governor ordered an evacuation of all vulnerable people within five miles of the plant as radioactive gas escaped.

In the end, the accident resulted in no injuries or loss of life. Two decades later, The Economist visited the Pennsylvania hinterlands and found the second, unproblematic reactor still running well and enjoying strong local support. It cranked out power until it was mothballed in 2019 owing not to safety concerns but to competition from cheap shale gas.

Now Three Mile Island is coming back from the dead. On September 20th Microsoft, a tech giant, and Constellation Energy, the utility that decommissioned the trouble-free reactor, signed a deal to return it to service. The utility will spend about $1.6bn to restore the plant by 2028. Microsoft will then buy its carbon-free power for the next 20 years.

Read it all.

Great look at how Big Tech is leveraging its market power and analytics to shift more project risk onto renewable energy developers:https://t.co/n3MsUpHbnj

— Lee Harris (@leee_harris) October 8, 2024

In 2022, Ian caused about $60 billion of insured losses. Milton may result in $60 billion to $75 billion of damages and losses, with some models showing the total reach as much as $150 billion, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research, said in an X post.

Cat-bond investors may also take a hit from the inland flooding caused by Hurricane Helene. Moody’s RMS estimates that US private-market insured losses from Helene will be $8 billion to $14 billion.

“Helene was a one-in-a-thousand year rainfall event,” said Jonathan Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic Inc., a catastrophe-modeling firm in Irvine, California. “It shows the power of a hurricane further inland.”

Read it all.

Catastrophe bond investors made big profits in 2023 and narrowly dodged a payout for Hurricane Beryl. Milton will likely end that streak. The storm “could lead to one of the biggest reinsurance loss events in history” https://t.co/bZyBgbkjTc

— Amanda Kolson Hurley (@amandakhurley) October 9, 2024

Inflation in the United States is down significantly from its recent highs, falling from an annual rate of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.5% in August 2024. But actual prices remain elevated and, absent a recession, are likely to stay that way.

On average, consumer prices in August 2024 were 22.0% above where they were in January 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic scrambled the U.S. economy and much of the rest of American life. Today, 74% of Americans say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, while 69% say the same about housing costs, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

Of course, people don’t live on national averages. They live in particular places and buy particular things, and their experiences of inflation depend greatly on those particulars. The cost of apartments in Atlanta, bananas in Boston and sportswear in Seattle all factor into the national average inflation rate but can – and do – vary considerably from it….

Read it all.

NEW from @pewresearch: While *inflation* has eased, consumer *prices* are still much higher than before the pandemic, especially in certain metro areas. That may be why ~7 in 10 Americans are "very concerned" about prices. https://t.co/tI4k5ZyLU7 pic.twitter.com/sgAe9ziZ6c

— John Gramlich (@johngramlich) October 7, 2024

Public pension systems in the U.S. have seen a significant increase in unfunded liabilities, particularly during the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2010, unfunded liabilities grew by over $1.11 trillion—a 632% increase—reflecting the financial challenges faced during that period. Despite some improvements in funding ratios over the last decade, these liabilities have continued to rise, underscoring ongoing financial pressures.

As of the end of the 2023 fiscal year for each public pension system, total unfunded public pension liabilities (UAL) reached $1.59 trillion, with state pension plans carrying the majority of the debt.

The median funded ratio of public pension plans stood at 76% at the end of 2023, but stress tests suggest that another economic downturn could significantly increase unfunded liabilities, potentially raising the total to $2.71 trillion by 2025.

Read it all.

At the end of the 2023 fiscal year, the nation's public pension systems had $1.59 trillion in total unfunded liabilities.https://t.co/msg89p70Mr

— Pension Integrity Project (@ReasonPensions) October 3, 2024

President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen’s Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.

Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.

Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.

Read it all.

The East and Gulf Coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration https://t.co/x17dHuIkW9

— CNBC (@CNBC) October 2, 2024

The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here.

For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy force, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself.

Now, after Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and began a ground invasion of Lebanon, and after Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel, it has turned into one of the region’s most dangerous moments since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.

The main questions now are how much the conflict might intensify, and whether the United States’ own forces will get more directly involved.

Read it all.

A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran – The New York Times https://t.co/JjU4OyZeLr

— cecilia ballesteros (@ceciliab) October 2, 2024

For the first time in nearly 50 years, dockworkers at ports along the East and Gulf coasts have gone on strike.

Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association walked off the job at 12:01 a.m. Oct. 1 — the minute their six-year labor contracts expired — with three local Charleston union affiliates picketing outside S.C. State Ports Authority terminals for better wages, job security and “respect.”

Nearly 20 people stood along Morrison Drive in Charleston, across from the SPA’s Columbus Street Terminal, holding high signs that read “No work without a fair contract” and “Automation hurts families: ILA stands for job protection.”

Randy Campbell, a union vice president, said that members of his local ILA 1771, and two others, 1422 and 1422A, will remain outside of the Wando Welch, North Charleston and Columbus Street terminals until negotiations are done.

Read it all.

This morning, at 12:01 a.m., 45,000 union dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at major ports along the East and Gulf coasts went on strike.

Here’s what you need to know: https://t.co/HPCE6q1m8v pic.twitter.com/7eBJ51cow4

— SC Chamber of Commerce (@scchamber) October 1, 2024

Allison Jumper’s family was a picture of healthy living. Active kids. Wholesome meals. A freezer stocked with organic beef from her in-laws’ farm in Maine.

Then in late 2020, she got a devastating call from her brother-in-law. High levels of harmful “forever chemicals” had been detected on their farm and in their cows’ milk, and they were getting shut down.

At first, Mrs. Jumper worried only about her in-laws’ livelihoods. But soon, her mind went somewhere else: to her own children’s mysterious health issues, including startlingly high cholesterol levels.

“Then it hit me,” she said at her home in Durham, N.H. “Could it be the beef?”

Read it all.

Her family’s farm was hiding dangerous chemicals in their food https://t.co/6aYN9OtCNW

— Judith Enck (@enckj) September 23, 2024

You may

sense that governments are not as competent as they once were. Upon entering the White House in 2021, President Joe Biden promised to revitalise American infrastructure. In fact, spending on things like roads and rail has fallen. A flagship plan to expand access to fast broadband for rural Americans has so far helped precisely no one. Britain’s National Health Service soaks up ever more money, and provides ever worse care. Germany mothballed its last three nuclear plants last year, despite uncertain energy supplies. The country’s trains, once a source of national pride, are now always late.

You may also have noticed that governments are bigger than they once were. Whereas in 1960 state spending across the rich world was equal to 30% of GDP, now it is above 40%. In some countries growth in the state’s economic power has been still more dramatic. Since the mid-1990s Britain’s government spending has risen by six percentage points of gdp, while South Korea’s has risen by ten points. All of which raises a paradox: if governments are so big, why are they so ineffective?

The answer is that they have turned into what can be called “Lumbering Leviathans”. In recent decades governments have overseen an enormous expansion in spending on entitlements. Because there has not been a commensurate increase in taxes, redistribution is crowding out spending on other functions of government, which, in turn, is damaging the quality of public services and bureaucracies. The phenomenon may help explain why people across the rich world have such little faith in politicians. It may also help explain why economic growth across the rich world is weak by historical standards.

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Governments are bigger than ever. They are also more useless https://t.co/kt5sIZ1OqF

— Igor Wortel (@itwortel) September 23, 2024

Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy is growing faster than expected. But surging demand for power is sucking up much of that additional capacity and forcing utilities to burn fossil fuels, including coal, for longer than expected.

With greenhouse-gas emissions continuing at record levels, scientists expect floods and heat waves to get worse. This year is on track to be the hottest on record.

“The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich. On this trajectory, “it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience,” she said.

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Climate optimism is fading as high costs and new priorities like AI push the energy transition down the priority list for businesses and investors. Climate week story taking stock of the setbacks w/ @edmballard:https://t.co/7tZDL7w0Sd

— Amrith Ramkumar (@AmrithRamkumar) September 23, 2024

The start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle is a huge moment for the international financial system. Central banks in emerging markets can loosen a little without fearing a run on their currencies. Indonesia’s central bank has stopped defending the rupiah and dared to cut rates. India’s Sensex stock index hit an all-time high on Thursday as markets anticipate a new world of abundant liquidity and surging inflows of foreign funds.

The Fed’s jumbo half-point cut is transmitted instantly to the 40-odd countries and currency boards linked to the US dollar in one way or another. These regions were forced to import the most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years through their exchange rates, whether or not their local economies were synchronised with the US cycle….

But there is a large caveat to this rosy global picture. It all depends on whether the Fed is ahead of the curve and delivers a soft landing; or whether it is behind the curve, has misjudged the delayed effects of past tightening, and has already let recessionary dynamics take hold.

These binary outcomes can have drastically different consequences for the world.

Mislav Matejka, equity strategist at JP Morgan, says there have been four soft landings and eight recessions in the last 12 Fed cycles. The “softs” delivered stock market gains of 20pc or so over the following year. The “hards” led to months of sell-offs, snowballing into wipeout crashes in 2001 and 2008. This time the starting point is stretched after a 26pc rise in Wall Street’s S&P 500 index over the last year.

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Enjoy the torrid Fed rally, but the world is not out of the woods yet https://t.co/of6TpXposG

— Felix Randal (@felixrandal) September 20, 2024

On July 21st Matt Roan, chair of the Cumberland County Democratic Committee, hosted a meeting with volunteers. The event took a turn when Mr Roan stopped to read a statement from Joe Biden announcing his departure from the presidential race. “There was this sort of sense of sadness—and then immediate hope,” Mr Roan recalls in his office, which overlooks the Pennsylvania state capitol. The activist speaks highly of Mr Biden but acknowledged that “things were not looking good” at the time. The rise of Kamala Harris attracted a surge of volunteers to a county that favoured Donald Trump by around 18 points in 2016 but only 11 points in 2020. If such improvements hold there and in other areas like it, Ms Harris would probably win the state and the presidency.

Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as a fulcrum of the 2024 election, and for good reason. The Economist’s forecast model suggests that the state—with its 19 electoral-college votes, the most of any swing state—is the tipping-point in 27% of the model’s updated simulations, meaning it decides the election more often than any other state. Mr Trump wins only 7% of the time when he loses the Keystone State. Indeed, he narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, and then he lost by 80,000 votes out of nearly 7m cast in his unsuccessful re-election bid four years later.

No state has drawn more money. Of the $839.5m that the Harris campaign and allied organisations already have spent or committed to advertising, $164.1m has gone to this state of 13m people. The less well-heeled Trump operation has directed $135.7m of $458.8m to Pennsylvania. Turn on the television, watch a YouTube video or listen to the radio inside Pennsylvania and it won’t be long before spots for Ms Harris or Mr Trump begin to play.

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The battle for Pennsylvania is on.

For all the money both presidential candidates are pouring into the swing state, the race remains extremely close https://t.co/Su2xduW2Pr 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) September 20, 2024

Further tens of millions of pounds are to be pumped into efforts to drastically reduce the Church of England’s carbon emissions over the next six years, the first impact report on its net-zero programme says.

The report summarises progress on the General Synod’s ambition to achieve net zero by 2030, which was set in 2020 (News, 12 February 2020). The Synod approved a “route map” to this goal two years later (News, 15 July 2022).

In real terms, the target is to decrease the Church’s emissions — mainly from its buildings — by 90 per cent against the current baseline: 415,000 tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (415,000T CO2e). The remaining ten per cent is to be offset by carbon-cancelling schemes, such as tree-planting and installing solar panels.

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Further tens of millions of pounds are to be pumped into efforts to drastically reduce the Church of England’s carbon emissions over the next six years, the first impact report on its net-zero programme says https://t.co/GlXOa0tBpM pic.twitter.com/NAkFHUtMIL

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) September 19, 2024