Austria threatened to block its share of the next transfer of aid funds to Greece unless the government meets deficit-cutting goals agreed upon six months ago with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Austrian Finance Minister Josef Proell said in Vienna that he lacked assurances from Greece to commit to the payment. He toned down his remarks later, telling journalists in Brussels that Austria was prepared to meet its pledge to Greece and that Greece was “on a good path.”

“We are getting indications that the Greeks can’t stick to their plan in a sufficient manner, in particular on the revenue side,” Proell said according to a government e-mail that confirmed remarks made after a Cabinet meeting today. “The data we have at the moment doesn’t give any reason to approve the December tranche from the Austrian point of view.”

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“It seems difficult for Ireland to avoid tapping the fund unless they have new rabbits to pull out their hat,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London.

It is very likely Ireland will seek support from the 750- billion-euro ($1 trillion) fund, Reuters reported, citing euro- zone sources it didn’t name. The Finance Ministry in Dublin denied talks were under way. Amelia Torres, a spokeswoman for the EU’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, called the report “pure speculation.”

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Ireland’s financial troubles loomed large Wednesday as investors – betting that the country soon could join Greece in seeking an EU bailout – drove the interest rate on the country’s 10-year borrowing to a new high.

The yield on 10-year bonds rose above 8 percent for the first time since the launch of the euro, the European Union’s common currency, 11 years ago.

The cost of funding Irish debt has risen steadily since September, when the government admitted its bailout efforts of five banks would cost at least euro45 billion, equivalent to euro10,000 for every man, woman and child in Ireland. That gargantuan bill, in turn, has made the projected 2010 deficit rise to 32 percent of GDP, the highest in post-war Europe.

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The Fed is essentially lending enough money to the government to fund its operations for several months, something called “monetizing the debt.” In normal times, this is one of the great taboos of central banking because it is seen as a step toward spiraling inflation and because it risks encouraging reckless government spending.

Read it all (my emphasis).

The Federal Reserve’s push toward easier monetary policy is the “wrong way” to stimulate growth and may amount to a manipulation of the dollar, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday gave Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea an overview of the U.S. central bank’s efforts to jumpstart the world’s largest economy. His strategy, which investors expect will soon include greater asset purchases, drew criticism at the talks, said Bruederle.

“It’s the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by adding more liquidity,” Bruederle told reporters yesterday, saying that emerging-market officials were among the critics. Bruederle, a member of the Free Democratic Party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, stepped in for hospitalized Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the meeting.

Read it all.

Is this a currency war or what?

Fast-growing nations like Thailand are trying to devalue their exchange rates to bolster their export-driven economies.

In Washington, where “strong dollar” has been the mantra for years, policy makers are taking steps that could make the already weak dollar weaker still.

European policy makers worry that a resurgent euro will threaten growth in their own backyard. And the entire world, it seems, is jawboning China to level the playing field and let its undervalued currency, the renminbi, appreciate. It is a step that Beijing, by all accounts, does not want to take.

With so many economies struggling, it suddenly seems as if it is every nation for itself in the currency markets….

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Police and youth have clashed in a dozen cities reports the Independent, and the country has been forced to tap its crisis fuel supply says the New York Post.

Yet what’s most shocking about the strikes is the modest pension reform they are opposed to. The French government is merely increasing the age of retirement to 62 from 60, by 2018, which is nothing compared to the far harsher austerity measures people are protesting in places such as Greece and Spain.

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The former chief economist of the World Bank and a Nobel prize winner also predicted that short-term speculators in the market could soon start putting pressure on Spain, which is struggling with a large deficit and high unemployment. Last week, Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating from AAA to Aa1.

The former adviser to President Bill Clinton also says that the banking sector has gone back to “business as usual” too quickly and that there are still risks of another financial crisis despite some improvements in regulation.

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Anti-austerity protests erupted across Europe on Wednesday ”” Greek doctors and railway employees walked out, Spanish workers shut down trains and buses, and one man even blocked the Irish Parliament with a cement truck to decry the country’s enormous bank bailouts.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators poured into Brussels, hoping to swell into a 100,000-strong march on European Union institutions later in the day and reinforce the impact of Spain’s first nationwide strike in eight years.

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While some withdrawals point to capital flight by wealthy Greeks, it is clear that households and companies are running down savings to make ends meet. The Athens Chamber of Commerce warned yesterday that its members are in “dire straits”, with a majority facing a liquidity threat.

Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said Greek lenders are covering their funding gap through loans from the European Central Bank (ECB), which reached a record €96bn in July. “The question is how much eligible collateral they have left to take to the ECB. It must be nearing the limits,” he said.

“What is worrying is that this is not just Greeks. Portuguese banks borrowed €50bn in July compared to €41.5bn in June. Together with Ireland and Spain they have borrowed €387bn from the ECB,” he said.

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The austerity measures that were supposed to fix Greece’s problems are dragging down the country’s economy. Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back.

The feast of the Assumption of Mary on Aug. 15 is the high point of summer in the Greek Orthodox world. Here in one of the country’s many churches, believers pray to the Virgin for mercy, with many of them falling to their knees.

The newspaper Ta Nea has recommended that the Greek government adopt the very same approach — the country’s leaders have to hope that Mary comes up with a miracle to save Greece from a serious crisis, the paper writes. Without divine intervention, the newspaper suggested, it will be a difficult autumn for the Mediterranean state.

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Seldom does the United States look at Europe with economic envy. The past few weeks, however, have been one of those rare phases. Concern about America’s stumbling recovery has been rising, just as anxieties about the euro area’s economy have faded. The dollar is the weakling among rich-world currencies…. But Americans should take a little heart: it is too soon to despair about their economy. And Europeans should show a little caution: it is too soon to be sure that theirs is firmly back on its feet.

Read it all.

Kevin Rudd may be happy about at least one thing: he can avoid Toronto this weekend.

Nothing against Canada’s business capital, but by stepping down suddenly as Australia’s premier, Rudd got himself out of a much-hyped gathering with virtually no chance of putting the world economy on a more even keel.

Why is that? We are suffering from a chronic leadership vacuum, one starkly underlined by Rudd’s untimely departure. The Group of 20 will go through the motions and consider the burning issues of our day. Yet the list of pressing problems is a daunting one….

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So far, European leaders have tried to deal with this spreading disaster by ruses. Existing European treaties ban bail-outs of member states. So the “European Stabilisation Mechanism”, recently set up precisely to provide these illegal bail-outs, does so under Article 122.2 of the Lisbon Treaty. This article gives emergency assistance to a member state “threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional circumstances beyond its control”.

Natural disasters! We are experiencing a totally unnatural disaster, one brought about by the artificial structure of the European project. Exceptional circumstances beyond its control! It was this system that every eurozone member state proudly (though usually without asking their electorates) voted for.

The situation is not funny for the people of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and so on, because their governments have run up dreadful public debts while sacrificing their power to devalue to become competitive. They cannot cut their exchange rate, so they must cut wages and jobs. Unemployment in Spain is already 20 per cent ”“ and 40 per cent among young people.

It is not funny for Germany, either. German banks are overcommitted in the southern countries now afflicted. The German people are fed up with paying for the profligacy of their poorer neighbours and furious at the suggestion that the only solution is that they should pay even more.

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Nearly half of Germans want a change in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right coalition government, with one out of five wanting her to resign and call new elections, the latest poll showed Wednesday.

The findings in the poll conducted by Forsa for Stern weekly news magazine showed that a further 22% want back the grand coalition of conservative parties and the Social Democrats, which Ms. Merkel headed in the previous legislative term.

Just 8% said the chancellor can continue governing as she has done since the coalition won the elections in September.

Read the whole thing.

The rebellion against the 1930s fiscal and monetary policies of the Euro-complex is gathering pace.

Il Sole has published a letter by 100 Italian economists warning that the austerity strategy imposed by Brussels/Frankfurt risks tipping Europe into a self-feeding downward spiral. Far from holding the eurozone together, it will cause weaker countries to be catapulted out of EMU. Others will leave in order to restore sovereign control over their central banks and unemployment policies.

At worst it will blow the EU apart, leading to the very acrimony that the European Project was supposed to prevent.

Read it all.

Spain has upped the ante in a high-stakes poker game with Germany, pushing for the release of EU stress test results for major banks in a move that risks precipitiating a dramatic escalation of Europe’s financial crisis.

“We’re not afraid of transparency,” said the Spanish Banking Association (AEB), saying the full truth would put an end to rumours battering Spain’s instutitions. El Pais reported that the government backs the initiative, putting it on a collision course with Germany which insists on secrecy.

Josef Ackermann, head of Deutsche Bank, warned last week that it would be “very dangerous” to publish the results of each bank, fearing that it would trigger flight from weak lenders and set off a chain reaction.

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Democracy could ”˜collapse’ in Greece, Spain and Portugal unless urgent action is taken to tackle the debt crisis, the head of the European Commission has warned.

In an extraordinary briefing to trade union chiefs last week, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso set out an ”˜apocalyptic’ vision in which crisis-hit countries in southern Europe could fall victim to military coups or popular uprisings as interest rates soar and public services collapse because their governments run out of money.

The stark warning came as it emerged that EU chiefs have begun work on an emergency bailout package for Spain which is likely to run into hundreds of billions of pounds.

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French and German banks have lent nearly $1 trillion to the most troubled European countries and are more exposed to the debt crisis than the banks of any other countries, according to a new report that is likely to add pressure on institutions to detail their holdings.

French banks had lent $493 billion to Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland by the end of 2009 while German banks had lent $465 billion, according to the report by the Bank for International Settlements, an institution based in Basel, Switzerland, that acts as a clearing house for the world’s central banks.

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“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”

Soros, 79, said the current situation in the world economy is “eerily” reminiscent of the 1930s with governments under pressure to narrow their budget deficits at a time when the economic recovery is weak.

Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance, according to Bank of America Corp.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.

Read it all.

From here:

The Dow spent much of Wednesday’s session in the black but turned lower in the final hour after Chancellor Angela Merkel defended Germany’s EUR80 billion austerity package for the next four years, saying that the time to withdraw stimulus has come and lessons from the debt crisis must be learned.

“If she’s basically saying that it’s time to withdraw stimulus, what’s that going to do to Europe’s strongest economy?” asked Michael Shea, managing partner at Direct Access Partners. “What it’s doing is just creating more and more uncertainty.”

Heavy rain hampered an evening rally through the city’s streets.

Spanish unions said 75-80% of public sector workers had joined the day-long strike.

The labour ministry, however, put the figure at 16%.

“We are very angry because this is not only an attack to our rights and to our salaries – there is an attack to the welfare,” protester Elisia Deoran told the BBC.

“It’s an attack on all the public services.”

Read the whole thing.

IT’S a $2.6 trillion mystery.

That’s the amount that foreign banks and other financial companies have lent to public and private institutions in Greece, Spain and Portugal, three countries so mired in economic troubles that analysts and investors assume that a significant portion of that mountain of debt may never be repaid.

The problem is, alas, that no one ”” not investors, not regulators, not even bankers themselves ”” knows exactly which banks are sitting on the biggest stockpiles of rotting loans within that pile. And doubt, as it always does during economic crises, has made Europe’s already vulnerable financial system occasionally appear to seize up. Early last month, in an indication of just how dangerous the situation had become, European banks ”” which appear to hold more than half of that $2.6 trillion in debt ”” nearly stopped lending money to one another.

Now, with government resources strained and confidence in European economies eroding, some analysts say the Continent’s banks have to come clean with a transparent and rigorous accounting of their woes. Until then, they say, nobody will be able to wrestle effectively with Europe’s mounting problems.

“The marketplace knows very little about where the real risks are parked,” says Nicolas Véron, an economist at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. “That is exactly the problem. As long as there is no semblance of clarity, trust will not return to the banking system.”

Read it all.

The big news is France. With sentiment worsening across Europe, France has lost its relative safe haven status ”“ credit default swap spreads on French government debt were up sharply today.

The trigger ”“ oddly enough ”“ was Hungary’s announcement that its budget is worse than expected (blaming the previous government; this is starting to become the European pattern) and in the current fragile environment discussed yesterday, this relatively small piece of news spooked investors. But these developments only reinforced a trend that was already in place.

It did not help that the Irish Minister of Finance announced Ireland has 74.2bn euros of guaranteed bank loans, bonds, and systemic support falling due between now and Oct 1. This is around 55% of GNP. It sounds like everyone backed by the Irish government had the “clever” idea to roll over their debts to just before the guarantees expire.

The big losers are Portugal-Ireland-Italy-Greece-and-Spain as always, but Belgium is now in the line of fire, and France is clearly under pressure. The spread between French and German credit default swaps (measuring the relative probability of default) is up ”“ yesterday this was 40 basis points, today it stands at 44 (up from just 5 basis points at the end of 2009; most of the increase is since mid-March, with a sharp acceleration recently). French bonds have become illiquid, with wide bid-ask spreads; not what is supposed to happen in a safe haven. This is going to make the French angry ”“ watch for more market slanders from top French politicians over the weekend; you know they would just love to ban trading in something.

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As a long-standing critic of the idea of a European single currency, I have not rejoiced at the current problems in the euro zone because their consequences could be serious for all of us in Europe””for members and non-members of the euro zone, for its supporters and opponents. Even the enthusiastic propagandists of the euro suddenly speak about the potential collapse of the whole project now, and it is us critics who say we have to look at it in a more structured way.

The term “collapse” has at least two meanings. The first is that the euro-zone project has not succeeded in delivering the positive effects that had been rightly or wrongly expected from it. It was mistakenly and irresponsibly presented as an indisputable economic benefit to all the countries willing to give up their own long-treasured currencies….

The second meaning of the term collapse is the possible collapse of the euro zone as an institution, the demise of the euro. To that question, my answer is no, it will not collapse. So much political capital had been invested in its existence and in its role as a “cement” that binds the EU on its way to supra-nationality that in the foreseeable future the euro will surely not be abandoned.

It will continue, but at a very high price””low economic growth. It will bring economic losses even to non-members of the euro zone, like the Czech Republic.

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The Greek government has been advised by British economists to leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt to save its economy.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable to escape their debt trap without devaluing their own currency to boost exports. The only way this can happen is if Greece returns to its own currency.

Greek politicians have played down the prospect of abandoning the euro, which could lead to the break-up of the single currency.

Read it all.

Like last week, with stocks lurching wildly with the headlines — up by triple digits one day, down the next. For the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.9% and is negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index also are in the red for the year.

Some pretty smart people are cautious. Seth Klarman at Baupost Group is worried. John Hussman of the Hussman Funds says all sorts of warning lights have lit up across his screen. Even Ron Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund, who usually takes a sunnier view of things, says he has moved a big chunk of his mutual fund into cash in case there’s a plunge.

How far will it go? Mr. Hussman says the technical indicators have only been this bad 19 times before in the last half century — and on average the market plunged about 20% over the following 12 months. When markets were also high, like now, the picture’s even worse.

Ugh.

Read the whole thing.

For much of the rich world, however, the most important consequences of Europe’s mess will be fiscal. Governments must steer between imposing premature austerity (in a bid to avoid becoming Greece) and allowing their public finances to deteriorate for too long. In some countries with big deficits, the fear of a bond-market rout is forcing rapid action. Britain’s new government spelled out useful initial spending cuts this week. But the emergency budget promised for June 22nd will be trickier: it needs to show resolve on the deficit without sending the country back into recession.

In America, paradoxically, the Greek crisis has, if anything, removed the pressure for deficit reduction, by reducing bond yields. America’s structural budget deficit will soon be bigger than that of any other OECD member, and the country badly needs a plan to deal with it. But for now, lower bond yields and a stronger dollar are the route through which American spending will rise to counter European austerity. Thanks to its population growth and the dollar’s role as a global currency, America has more fiscal room than any other big-deficit country. It has been right to use it.

The world is nervous for good reason. Although the fundamentals are reasonably good, the judgment of politicians is often unreasonably bad. Right now that is what poses the biggest risk to the world economy.

Read the whole thing (emphasis mine).

From David Ignatius in the Washington Post:

Investors keep pounding Europe in part because they don’t yet see the mechanisms that will enforce discipline. The European Union just established a trillion-dollar bailout fund, but what happens when it runs out? There’s a pledge to impose strict conditions on Greece, Portugal and the rest in exchange for loans, but it still isn’t clear how Brussels will make this austerity regime work.

The problem is the one Napolitano describes: Europe remains a union of convenience, which can be discarded by national governments when it suits their purpose. Northern European nations such as Germany like to chide their spendthrift southern counterparts for lack of discipline. But it was Germany and France that demonstrated the toothlessness of the eurozone’s enforcement mechanisms in 2005 by refusing to pay fines when their budget deficits exceeded the limits of the E.U. Stability and Growth Pact.

There are very useful parallels here for Anglicans for those who have eyes to see–KSH.

While a restructuring may not take place for another year or two, it’s a move that Greece may be unable to avoid, many say, despite assurances to the contrary from officials at the EU and IMF.

Restructuring is essentially a default, under which Greece would renegotiate its debt with bondholders, either lengthening its maturities or reducing the amount it owes, causing bondholders to take a loss.

“At this point, it is very clear that restructuring is the only option,” says Lena Komileva of Tullett Prebon in London.

Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank, said earlier this month he thought it “doubtful” that Greece would be able to repay all its borrowings.

Read it all.