Category : * Economics, Politics

Church of England Pensions Board disinvests from Shell and remaining oil and gas holdings

The Church of England Pensions Board is today announcing its intention to disinvest from Shell plc and other oil and gas companies which are failing to show sufficient ambition to decarbonise in line with the aims of the Paris Agreement.

The new investment restriction announced today will apply to all oil and gas companies that do not have short, medium and long term emissions reduction targets aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as assessed by the independent Transition Pathway Initiative. The exclusion will apply to equity and also debt investments.

“Today we announce our intention to disinvest from all remaining oil and gas holdings across our equity and debt portfolio,” said John Ball, Chief Executive Officer of the Church of England Pensions Board. “There is a significant misalignment between the long term interests of our pension fund and continued investment in companies seeking short term profit maximisation at the expense of the ambition needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Recent reversals of previous commitments, most notably by BP and Shell, has undermined confidence in the sector’s ability to transition”.

Read it all.

Posted in Church of England, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, England / UK, Ethics / Moral Theology, Religion & Culture, Stock Market

(Economist) China’s economic recovery is spluttering. The prognosis is not good

When the Chinese government abruptly abandoned its zero-covid policy at the end of 2022, all bets were on a rapid economic rebound. After nearly three years of restrictions, the world’s second-largest economy would, the thinking went, come roaring back.

In the event, China has reopened with a whimper, not a bang. A range of economic indicators, including retail sales and investment, have risen less rapidly than expected. Some analysts now think the economy might not have grown at all during the second quarter. At this rate, the government’s modest gdp target, for growth in 2023 of 5%, will only just be met.

There are several reasons to be gloomy about China’s economic prospects, from America’s export controls on advanced semiconductors and skittish foreign investors, to President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on big tech firms. But the main culprit for the recent weakness is property, which before the pandemic was a crucial source of growth across the economy. Activity slowed, first as the government sought to rein in heavily indebted developers, and then more recently as sales have stayed weak. Between January and May, for instance, real-estate investment fell by 7.2%, compared with the same period a year ago. The danger is that the property bust now becomes an enduring malaise.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Economy, Globalization

(FT) Central banks’ battle with inflation enters new phase of ‘pain’

Headline rates of inflation across most of the world’s economies have fallen back sharply since the autumn but core rates — which exclude volatile categories such as energy and food — remain at or close to multi-decade highs.

These rates, seen as a better gauge of underlying price pressures, have sparked concern that central banks will struggle to hit their targets without wiping out growth.

“The next leg of the improvement in the inflation numbers is going to be harder,” said Carl Riccadonna, chief US economist at BNP Paribas. “It requires more pain, and that pain likely involves a recession in the back half of the year.”

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, added: “The only way to get inflation down to 2 per cent is to crush demand and slow down the economy in a more substantial way.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Consumer/consumer spending, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Federal Reserve, Globalization, The U.S. Government

(Church Times) Commissioners and Pensions Board take a scythe to their oil gas portfolios

The Church Commissioners and the Church of England Pensions Board are to remove Shell, BP, and other oil and gas firms from their investment portfolios, because they are not reducing their carbon emissions quickly enough.

The investment bodies were instructed by the General Synod in 2018 to disinvest from fossil-fuel companies by 2023 unless the latter could prove that they were on the path to tackling climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement (News, 13 July 2018).

The Commissioners, who manage a £10.3-billion endowment fund, announced on Thursday that they had “decided to exclude all remaining oil and gas majors from [their] portfolio, and will exclude all other companies primarily engaged in the exploration, production and refining of oil or gas, unless they are in genuine alignment with a 1.5°C pathway, by the end of 2023.

“In 2021, the Church Commissioners excluded 20 oil and gas majors from [their] investment portfolio. [They are] now also excluding BP, Ecopetrol, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, Pemex, Repsol, Sasol, Shell, and Total, after concluding that none are aligned with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, as assessed by the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI).”

Read it all.

Posted in Church of England (CoE), Climate Change, Weather, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, England / UK, Religion & Culture, Stock Market

(Nikkei Asia) Afghanistan’s opium tragedy persists despite Taliban cultivation ban

It was the dead of winter in February 2022 when I first met Marwa, a 38-year-old opium addict, sitting huddled under a blanket in the women’s drug rehabilitation center in Kabul with two of her children. Mina, age 2, had just woken up and was writhing in pain, lifting her small head to see her new visitors.

Marwa’s other daughter, Zahra, age 15, was sitting by the edge of the bed. I first mistook her for a boy as she was dressed in boys’ clothing. Her mother said dressing as a boy made it easier for her to buy drugs. Zahra had been wearing the outfit when she was picked up by the hospital’s field team from under Pul-e-Sukhta, a bridge in western Kabul that has transformed into a gathering place for drug users and sellers.

Dr. Shaista Hakeem, director of the 150-bed National Center for the Treatment of Addiction for Women and Children in Kabul, introduced me to her patients that day, telling me the family had been at the hospital for more than a week. They were seeking treatment for opium addiction, which consisted of 15 days of medication and 15 days of counseling, awareness, and skill training. It was an ordeal, especially for the children, who suffered withdrawal symptoms despite regular doses of medication. The effectiveness of treatment varies from patient to patient, Hakeem added.

Marwa had been taking opium and heroin, a more refined opioid, for 10 years, and had passed on her addiction to her youngest child, Mina, through breast milk.

Read it all.

Posted in Afghanistan, America/U.S.A., Drugs/Drug Addiction, Foreign Relations, Health & Medicine, Politics in General, War in Afghanistan

(WSJ) India’s Modi Sees Unprecedented Trust With U.S., Touts New Delhi’s Leadership Role

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said ties between New Delhi and Washington are stronger and deeper than ever as India moves to secure what he sees as its rightful place on the world stage at a moment of geopolitical turmoil.

“There is an unprecedented trust” between the leaders of the U.S. and India, Modi said in an interview ahead of his first official state visit to Washington after nine years in office. He hailed growing defense cooperation between the two countries as “an important pillar of our partnership,” which he said extends to trade, technology and energy.

In Washington this week, Modi is expected to complete deals to manufacture jet-fighter engines in India to power advanced light combat aircraft, and to purchase high-altitude armed Predator drones from the U.S. in a multibillion-dollar agreement to boost surveillance efforts over the Indian Ocean and near its disputed border with China in the Himalayas.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Foreign Relations, Globalization, India, Politics in General

(NBC) Southside Blooms bringing flowers and opportunity to Chicago’s vacant lots

Hererwith the accompanying blurb–“Across Chicago’s South Side neighborhood, 10 acres of previously vacant lots are now packed to the brim with flowers, kept blossoming through fully sustainable farms. NBC News’ Shaquille Brewster tells us about the program that’s innovating gardening, while giving back the community.”

Posted in Energy, Natural Resources, Urban/City Life and Issues

(CNN) The job market enters a new phase as the Great Resignation ends

Now, experts say the phenomenon is finished. Ten straight interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, slowing wage growth, stubborn inflation and mass layoffs in some industries may be causing Americans to stay put.

“The great resignation, by really any measure, is over,” said Nicholas Bloom, a professor of economics at Stanford University who studies labor economics. The combination of a tight labor market and structural change from the pandemic catalyzed job reshuffling over the past three years, he said. “But that’s moved into the window of history now.”

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics bolsters Bloom’s observation: The number of people quitting their jobs fell by 49,000 in April compared to March, according to the most recent numbers available from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

In fact, the so-called “quits” rate has steadily declined since last spring and is now virtually identical (just 0.1% above) the pre-pandemic rate in February 2020. Essentially, quits are back to the 2019 pre-Covid average.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market

(Bloomberg) As Iran Emerges From Isolation, Israel Is Feeling Cornered

Early this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a mock wartime meeting of his security cabinet in a bunker. Communities in northern Israel are preparing shelters for a long-term conflict. And the military is working overtime on a new laser system to intercept rockets.

Their focus is Iran and its nuclear ambitions.

For years, Israel has considered a nuclear-armed Iran to be an existential threat, and directed its energies to confronting it and its regional proxies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian areas.

But much is new in the past few months. Iran has emerged from diplomatic isolation, forging a key military alliance with Russia from which it’s seeking air defenses, restoring diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and pushing its allies to fire missiles at Israel. It is also enriching more and more uranium, including a small amount almost to weapons grade — while denying any plans for making a bomb.

Read it all.

Posted in Foreign Relations, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(NYT) Why the U.S. Electric Grid Isn’t Ready for the Energy Transition

America’s fragmented electric grid, which was largely built to accommodate coal and gas plants, is becoming a major obstacle to efforts to fight climate change.

Tapping into the nation’s vast supplies of wind and solar energy would be one of the cheapest ways to cut the emissions that are dangerously heating the planet, studies have found. That would mean building thousands of wind turbines across the gusty Great Plains and acres of solar arrays across the South, creating clean, low-cost electricity to power homes, vehicles and factories.

But many spots with the best sun and wind are far from cities and the existing grid. To make the plan work, the nation would need thousands of miles of new high-voltage transmission lines — large power lines that would span multiple grid regions.

To understand the scale of what’s needed, compare today’s renewable energy and transmission system to one estimate of what it would take to reach the Biden administration’s goal of 100 percent clean electricity generation by 2035.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Energy, Natural Resources

(BP) Nevada governor breaks trend, vetoes assisted-suicide bill

Hannah Daniel, the ERLC’s policy manager, told Baptist Press, “We believe all people are made in the image of God and possess immeasurable worth and value. Life is precious from the earliest moment of conception to natural death. Those who are struggling physically, mentally or emotionally should be met with the highest quality of care and compassion, not given assistance to end their life.”

The legislation “would have established Nevada as a destination for assisted suicide, and we joined arms with Nevada Baptists in urging Governor Lombardo to veto it,” she said in written comments.

The legislation would have allowed a doctor or advanced practice registered nurse to prescribe a lethal dose of a drug for an adult patient. The proposal gained narrow passage in both houses, 23-19 in the Assembly and 11-10 in the Senate. The majorities were far short of the two-thirds vote required to overturn a veto.

In a written veto message, Lombardo, a Republican, said the bill was unnecessary because of “expansions in palliative care services and continued improvements in advanced pain management.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, Aging / the Elderly, America/U.S.A., Anthropology, Death / Burial / Funerals, Ethics / Moral Theology, Health & Medicine, Life Ethics, Pastoral Theology, State Government, Theology

(Bloomberg) China’s Missing Politburo Statements Fan Fears of Data Gaps

Since President Xi Jinping secured a precedent-defying third term in October, the Communist Party’s top decision-making body has skipped publishing a statement for three separate months. During the Chinese leader’s second term, it took the party nearly five years to miss the same number of statements.

While there is no public mandate for the Politburo to meet monthly, it has done so for 90% of Xi’s decade-plus tenure, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of government statements.

It’s unclear whether the Politburo failed to convene in November, January and May, or if the elite group discussed sensitive matters it didn’t want to reveal. It’s still possible for state media to release statements on the body’s activities. Sometimes the party releases transcripts of Xi’s remarks months, or even years, later.

Read it all.

Posted in Asia, China, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General

(Economist) Ukraine’s counter-offensive appears to have begun

For months a guessing game has played out in military circles worldwide: where and when would Ukraine conduct its counter-offensive? Most expected it to come through Zaporizhia province, in the south of the country, perhaps directed at the city of Melitopol, with the aim of cutting the “land bridge” seized by Russian troops at the start of the war that connects occupied Crimea with Russia itself. Western officials had expected the offensive to begin two weeks ago, and some were getting impatient.

On June 4th—two days before the anniversary of D-Day, the start of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis—Ukrainian forces launched what Russia’s defence ministry called a “large-scale” assault on five axes in the south-east of Donetsk province, in eastern Ukraine. Some of them may indeed threaten the land bridge; others were further to the north. Western officials tell The Economist that this does in fact mark the start of the offensive, with attacks also under way on other parts of the front. Yet the cream of Ukraine’s forces has not yet appeared on the battlefield.

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Posted in Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Russia, Ukraine

Remembering D-Day–Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s D-Day Prayer on June 6, 1944

“My Fellow Americans:

“Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our Allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

“And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

“Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

“Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.
“They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest — until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men’s souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

“For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and goodwill among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

“Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

“And for us at home — fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas, whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them — help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

“Many people have urged that I call the nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

“Give us strength, too — strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

“And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

“And, O Lord, give us faith. Give us faith in Thee; faith in our sons; faith in each other; faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment — let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

“With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogances. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace — a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

“Thy will be done, Almighty God.

“Amen.”

You can listen to the actual audio if you want here and today of all days is the day to do that. Also, there is more on background and another audio link there.–KSH.

Posted in America/U.S.A., France, History, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President

Bp Graham Usher–Why are we supporting the People’s Plan for Nature?

Sadly, much of this wildlife is at risk from climate change and associated biodiversity loss. The UK is one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world. 15% of all our species are threatened with extinction, 97% of our wildflower meadows have been lost since the 1930s, and we have lost 492 animal and plant species in England since the 1800s. This can be even more pronounced on a local level – since 1900, one species of plant has been lost every two years on average on a county level.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, biodiversity loss and degradation, and damages to and transformation of ecosystems are already key risks for every region of the world due to past global warming, and will continue to escalate with every increment of temperature. This crisis of nature is now being recognised alongside the climate crisis as a serious threat to the future of the people and other creatures living on the planet.

Part of our Christian discipleship, as we care for creation, is to notice what we’re interconnected with, so that we can wonder at God’s creation and then take action to safeguard it on this island we call home.

Read it all.

Posted in Church of England (CoE), CoE Bishops, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Religion & Culture

(FA) Michael Knights–Iraq Is Quietly Falling Apart Iran’s Proxies Have Seized Power in Baghdad—and Are Gutting the State

On the surface, Iraq appears to have achieved a measure of stability. The country finally has a functioning government after a yearlong political vacuum. Terrorist violence has fallen to its lowest rate since the 2003 U.S. invasion. Even the country’s Iran-backed militias—long a source of tension with Washington—have significantly reduced their attacks on U.S. diplomatic and military sites. In a May 4 speech at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan credited a U.S strategy built on the “twin pillars of deterrence and diplomacy” for the decrease in attacks on U.S. interests.

As Sullivan’s speech illustrates, President Joe Biden’s national security team sees a quiet Middle East as an end unto itself—including in Iraq. Although Sullivan was quick to add that he was “not pulling out the victory flag on Iraq” and that the United States still has “a broad agenda” to strengthen Baghdad’s independence from Tehran, his real metric of success was clearly the de-escalation of tensions between the United States and the Iran-backed militias that dominate the Iraqi government. The White House believes that regional de-escalation is necessary to allow the United States to focus on its competition with China. But in Iraq, this approach promises to have long-term costs: the U.S. desire for calm is being exploited by Tehran’s allies to destabilize its politics.

Iraq may look calm, but looks can be deceiving. The country is actually entering a uniquely dangerous period: Iran’s allies have achieved unprecedented control of Iraq’s parliament, judiciary, and executive branch, and they are rapidly rigging the political system in their favor and looting the state of its resources. Washington’s complacent attitude toward these events is only setting it up for costly involvement later. Iraq is the world’s third-largest oil producer and a country whose collapse could destabilize the entire Middle East through the spread of refugees and terrorism. Great-power competition has never been an excuse to tune out the threats facing the country—and it shouldn’t be one now.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Foreign Relations, Iraq, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Washington Post) ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners.

Experts say that even advanced AI doesn’t match the writing skills of a human: It lacks personal voice and style, and it often churns out wrong, nonsensical or biased answers. But for many companies, the cost-cutting is worth a drop in quality.

“We’re really in a crisis point,” said Sarah T. Roberts, an associate professor at University of California in Los Angeles specializing in digital labor. “[AI] is coming for the jobs that were supposed to be automation-proof.”

AI and algorithms have been a part of the working world for decades. For years, consumer-product companies, grocery stores and warehouse logistics firms have used predictive algorithms and robots with AI-fueled vision systems to help make business decisions, automate some rote tasks and manage inventory. Industrial plants and factories have been dominated by robots for much of the 20th century, and countless office tasks have been replaced by software.

But the recent wave of generative artificial intelligence – which uses complex algorithms trained on billions of words and images from the open internet to produce text, images and audio – has the potential for a new stage of disruption. The technology’s ability to churn out human-sounding prose puts highly paid knowledge workers in the crosshairs for replacement, experts said.

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Posted in Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Language, Science & Technology

(Economist Leader) Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

In the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not. Even as artificial intelligence (ai) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.

In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by gdp all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population.

The result is that in much of the world the patter of tiny feet is being drowned out by the clatter of walking sticks. The prime examples of ageing countries are no longer just Japan and Italy but also include Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. By 2030 more than half the inhabitants of East and South-East Asia will be over 40. As the old die and are not fully replaced, populations are likely to shrink. Outside Africa, the world’s population is forecast to peak in the 2050s and end the century smaller than it is today. Even in Africa, the fertility rate is falling fast.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Children, Economy, Globalization, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Marriage & Family, Politics in General

(FT) Earth past its safe limits for humans, scientists say

The earth is already past safe limits for humans as temperature rise, water system disruption and destruction of natural habitats have reached boundaries, a study by a group of the world’s foremost scientists has found.

The research, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, identified eight earth system boundaries that included climate, biodiversity, water, natural ecosystems, land use and the effect of fertilisers and aerosols.

Human activities had pushed seven of these boundaries beyond their “safe and just limit” into risk zones that indicate the threat to planetary and human health, it said.

Researchers have traditionally focused on the effects of climate change or biodiversity loss on the planet itself, but the study from the Earth Commission group of scientists marks an attempt by experts to identify the limits after which humans will suffer significant harm.

Read it all.

Posted in Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources

(Telegraph) America’s Faustian Pact with runaway debt is coming due

The Republicans have capitulated on the US debt ceiling. This averts the risk of abrupt fiscal tightening in a slowing economy that has yet to digest the most aggressive monetary squeeze in over 40 years.

The putative accord between the White House and Congress does not even try to address the larger threat to America’s economic model and hegemonic status.

The Congressional Budget Office says the US is on course for fiscal deficits of 7pc of GDP as far as the eye can see.

Sacred entitlements remain untouchable. Middle-class welfare – ie. consumption – will continue to eat up an ever-greater share of the budget. It is this that is leading to slow fiscal ruin.

The gross debt-to-GDP ratio was 62pc in 2007 (IMF data). It will be 122pc this year, and 138pc by 2028, with no sign of reaching a plateau. By then it will have overtaken Italy.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Budget, Economy, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Washington Post) Police agencies are desperate to hire. But they say few want the job.

The San Francisco Police Department is down more than 600 officers, almost 30 percent of its allotment. Phoenix needs about 500 more officers to be fully staffed. The D.C. police force is smaller than it has been in 50 years, despite troubling gun violence and carjackings, as officers leave faster than they can be replaced.

Police departments across the country are struggling to fill their ranks, creating what many current and former officials say is a staffing emergency that threatens public safety.

They cite an exodus of veteran officers amid new police accountability measures that followed the 2020 murder of George Floyd, increased hostility from the communities they police, and criminal justice laws that seek to reduce the number of people in jail.

Advocates for police reform see the moment as an opportunity to hire a new generation of officers and reimagine policing. But as agencies seek fresh recruits, they are getting fewer qualified applicants than in past years — leading some to make the risky move of lowering the bar for hiring to fill their ranks.

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, America/U.S.A., City Government, Police/Fire

(FT) F-16s might not win Ukraine’s war, but they promise a more equal fight

The F-16, with its longer-range radars, sensors and missiles, would restore the Ukrainian air force’s edge both qualitatively and quantitatively — and push the VKS back into Russia. That will, in turn, protect both Ukraine’s ground forces and its critical infrastructure. But boosting its effectiveness in the absence of wider air power packaging will require imagination.

Integrated air defence systems work far better than those operating in isolation. The Ukrainian air force must link together its western surface-to-air missiles and their advanced radars to provide its pilots with an enhanced picture of the aerial battle. Ground-based electronic warfare systems can do much to degrade Russian radars, and thereby its surface-to-air missile belt. Using rapidly-prototyped drones in reconnaissance and suppressing enemy air defence missions would make Russia’s fighter aircraft more vulnerable. This package of largely ground-based supporting systems — much cheaper than airborne ones — would allow Ukraine to retain the initiative in the air battle.

Finally, there is a moral dimension to consider. Nato would fight Russia by winning the air battle first, and then using air superiority to drive a more efficient land battle. Given the weakness of the VKS, this is no pipe dream. But the west’s constrained donations to date have forced Ukraine to pursue grinding land tactics. We have restricted Kyiv to fighting in a way that we would not, and to take casualties that we would not.

Read it all.

Posted in Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Russia, Ukraine

(Economist) The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point–Welcome to a bad time for big debts

Since the end of 2009 nominal growth has been higher than nominal rates (aside from the first half of 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic crashed the economy). Now America is about to cross the threshold. In the first quarter of 2023, despite annualised real economic growth of only 1.1%, troublesomely high inflation meant that nominal gdp rose at an annualised rate of 5.1%, roughly in line with today’s federal funds rate. A panel of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, a data firm, anticipate that in the second quarter of the year growth will slip to just 0.4% and inflation to 3.3%. Nominal growth is forecast to be just 3.7%—well below nominal rates of around 5.2%.

“This is when the rubber really meets the road for the economic cycle,” notes Carl Riccadonna of bnp Paribas, a bank. “This is the point at which, if you’re a business, your revenues are now growing more slowly than your cost of financing.” Wage growth will lag debt growth. Government debts will grow faster than tax receipts. A single quarter of this might be bearable. Unfortunately, economists expect the situation to last a year or more.

The precise impact depends on the extent to which debt reprices as interest rates rise. The vast majority of American homeowners have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. This generous financing will protect them against a pincer-like combo of slowing wage growth and rising interest expenses. Nevertheless, consumers carrying other kinds of debt—including revolving credit-card balances and private student loans—will feel the pinch.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy

A Quite Amazing WSJ Article on the only Residential Community in the USA INSIDE a Disney Resort– Golden Oak, Florida

Janis Scaramucci’s bedroom is decorated with paintings of Disney castles. In her office, a recessed ceiling in the shape of a Mickey Mouse head is painted in black glitter. The feet of her dining room table are made from coffee mugs featuring Mickey and Winnie the Pooh. And in her closet hangs a series of colorful Disney outfits, including a red skirt appliquéd with characters from the movie “Ratatouille.”

Welcome to Golden Oak, the only residential community in the world located on Walt Disney Co. resort property.

Ms. Scaramucci, a divorced 63-year-old Disney enthusiast and art collector, bought a $2.52 million home in the Orlando, Fla., community a few years ago after feeling dissatisfied with life in her suburban neighborhood in Edmond, Okla. Now, she spends her days riding roller coasters, attending nature conservation programs at Disney’s Animal Kingdom theme park, and traveling to destinations such as Antarctica on Disney cruises…..

But Mr. [Kevin] Tupy said that, in his experience, politics doesn’t come up much when Golden Oak residents get together.

“Disney is more of a religion,” he said. “We worship the mouse.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Housing/Real Estate Market, Movies & Television, Personal Finance

Local paper front page–Welcome to the Lithium Belt

GASTON COUNTY, N.C. — Nothing remains of the hilltop home that once stood at the end of this gravel road in western North Carolina. The house burned to the ground months ago.

Children’s bikes and firewood piles litter the yards of a half-dozen ranch homes down the hill that are next in line to be erased from the landscape. The company that will soon own them plans to have these homes torched, too. It is only interested in what lies beneath.

A hint of that prize sits a few steps into the forest, where craggy outcrops stand in the shade of tall loblolly pines. Look closely and you’ll see the rocks are marked with sparkling pinstripes of pale green.

Those pinstripes are evidence of lithium, a lightweight element used to power electric vehicle batteries. And that green is gold to Piedmont Lithium, the company planning to tunnel 500 feet into the earth here to mine the lucrative mineral.

Lithium is expected to fuel America’s transition away from gasoline-burning automobiles. In the process, that harvest could generate $3.9 billion for this rural community in five years, according to Piedmont, which penned an agreement with EV giant Tesla in January.

Along a certain stretch — where North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia meet — lithium is quickly becoming king: It pushes up through the ground, oozes through recyclers’ shredding machines and will soon travel through the backwoods on aging rail lines. New mines — as many as three separate operations by 2030 — are only part of the story. Welcome to the Lithium Belt.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, * South Carolina, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Science & Technology, State Government, Travel

(WSJ) Debt-Ceiling Standoff Could Start a Recession, but Default Would Be Worse

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government could become unable to pay bills on time by June 1. In that case, the Treasury Department could halt payments, such as to federal employees or veterans.

In a worst-case scenario, a failure to pay holders of U.S. government debt, a linchpin of the global financial system, could trigger severe recession and send stock prices plummeting and borrowing costs soaring.

Many economists don’t expect a default for the first time in U.S. history. But they outline three potential ways the standoff could affect the economy and financial system, ranging from not great to extremely scary.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Budget, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, House of Representatives, Politics in General, President Joe Biden, Senate, Stock Market, The U.S. Government

(Bloomberg) Almost 90 Million American Adults Struggle to Make Ends Meet, Census Says

More Americans struggle to meet expenses now than in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, when millions lost their means of employment, a Census Bureau survey showed.

About 38.5% of American adults — or 89.1 million people — faced difficulty in paying for usual home expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to the latest Household Pulse Survey. That’s up from 34.4% a year ago and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.

The Census Bureau collaborates with multiple federal agencies to compile the survey developed during the pandemic to collect data and measure household experiences to help inform federal and state governments.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Personal Finance & Investing

(Local Paper) Summerville, South Carolina hospital eyes 2-year, multi-million dollar expansion ahead of suburban boom

As more families across the country flock to the growing Lowcountry counties north of Charleston, Summerville Medical Center is preparing to meet the needs of an expanded population with a multi-million dollar expansion on its original campus.

This month, officials at the Summerville hospital announced it would officially start its over $60 million inpatient bed project in August. The project will add 56 new inpatient beds, a 40-percent increase to its existing 124 beds.

“As we work to meet the health needs of our community, it is vital that we add capacity and clinical programs,” said Jeff Taylor, the hospital’s CEO, in a recent press release.

Dorchester County’s population has exploded in recent years, with more than 18,000 residents moving to the county in the last two decades. Currently, over 166,000 people reside in the county. Projections put the number of residents at more than 200,000 by 2030, The Post and Courier previously reported. Many of those moving in are settling in the Summerville area.

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Posted in * South Carolina, Economy, Health & Medicine

(W Post) Conditions worsening in Sudan as rivals show little interest in cease-fires

Residents of Sudan’s besieged capital, Khartoum, said Wednesday that they are facing mounting hunger, sickness and continued airstrikes, despite a declared cease-fire between the country’s two most powerful generals, who began fighting 12 days ago.

Maysoon Abdallah Abdallmuttalib, who is among the leaders of a network of volunteers responding to crises in the city, said airstrikes led to the death of at least two people on Wednesday and wounded many others, adding strain to a medical system that is already in collapse. As of Wednesday afternoon, Abdallmuttalib said military planes were overhead, and that the bombing continued. During a brief lull, she said her network had received mostly requests for food, medicine and help evacuating, as conditions have grown increasingly dire for those that remain in the city.

“In this cease-fire, there was no ceasing of fire,” said Gasim Amin Oshi, a 29-year-old engineer who, like Abdallmuttalib, is a member of Sudan’s grass roots “resistance committees,” which have been active since the pro-democracy revolution in 2019. He said Wednesday afternoon that he had been hearing the sound of army helicopters circling, which means attacks are imminent.

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Posted in Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Sudan, Violence

A Prayer for Earth Day

We thank you, creator God,
for the goodly heritage you offer us,
from green downland
to the deep salt seas,
and for the abundant world
we share with your creation.
Keep us so mindful of its needs
and those of all with whom we share,
that open to your Spirit
we may discern and practice
all that makes for its wellbeing,
through Jesus Christ our Lord.

–The Rev. Peter Lippiett courtesy of Xavier Univeristy

Posted in Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, Spirituality/Prayer, Stewardship