Category : Economy

(Bloomberg) US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away

The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.

Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) In the US-China Trade War, Can China dent the USA’s safe-haven status?

One dangerous card that China’s got is its $760 billion holdings in Treasury securities. The country is the US’s second-largest foreign creditor after Japan.

Last week, the 10-year yield jumped by 50 basis points to 4.49%, the biggest weekly surge since 2001. Some of the sharpest moves were occurring during Asian hours, prompting speculation that Beijing was in the market. Will China weaponize and dump its holdings?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed this fear aside. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, he talked about the beauty of being the world’s biggest borrower. “If you take a bank loan, the bank is in charge, they can repossess whatever you borrowed against. But if you take a big enough loan, you’re kind of in charge of the bank,” he said.

While that’s true in a distressed scenario, the dynamic doesn’t quite work here. Trump’s abrupt tariff U-turn exposed the White House’s Achilles’ heel: He blinked and paused hikes on all nations except China — after watching US sovereign bonds tank.

After all, Bessent, who’s now spearheading tariff negotiations, requires a stable bond market to sell into….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(NYT) China’s Halt of Critical Minerals Poses Risk for U.S. Military Programs

On Air Force fighter jets, magnets made of rare earth minerals that are mined or processed in China are needed to start the engines and provide emergency power.

On precision-guided ballistic missiles favored by the Army, magnets containing Chinese rare earth materials rotate the tail fins that allow missiles to home in on small or moving targets. And on new electric and battery-powered drones being adapted by Marines, rare earth magnets are irreplaceable in the compact electric motors.

China’s decision to retaliate against President Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs by ordering restrictions on the exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets is a warning shot across the bow of American national security, industry and defense experts said.

In announcing that it will now require special export licenses for six heavy rare earth metals, which are refined entirely in China, as well as rare earth magnets, 90 percent of which are produced in China, Beijing has reminded the Pentagon — if, indeed, it needed reminding — that a wide swath of American weaponry is dependent on China.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Church Times) Treasury warned of ‘devastating’ consequences for churches if LPWG [Listed Places of Worship Grant] scheme ends

Churches are much more than buildings, and the Listed Places of Worship Grant (LPWG) Scheme is “beyond vital” to ensure that they can continue to be at the heart of communities, the Christian Funders’ Forum (CFF) has warned the Government.

These buildings are also often of significant architectural value, the CFF, a group of 50 grant-making charities say. They award grants totalling £70 million a year.

Churches such as St Michael-le-Belfrey, York, and St Mary Magdalene’s, Newark (News, 14 March, 4 April), where significant repair and restoration projects were already well advanced when the £25,000 cap on VAT exemption for repairs was announced in January, have been dismayed by the shortfalls in funding with which they are now confronted (News, 28 March).

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Posted in Church of England, England / UK, Ethics / Moral Theology, Housing/Real Estate Market, Politics in General, Religion & Culture, Stewardship, Taxes

(Bloomberg) As Markets Sank and Soared, a New Fear About America Itself Spread Across Wall Street

Serious questions now exist around the wisdom of owning American assets that until recently were the envy of a risk-obsessed world.

Amid the manic moves, key trading patterns even bear soft echoes with emerging markets. All told, fear is spreading that Trump’s bid to rewrite the terms of global trade risks imperiling America’s privileged status in the financial system.

“You honestly feel like you’re seeing stuff wrong sometimes. You have to check the scaling on your graphs because prices are moving so quickly,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Securities International Inc. “It’s just a constant stream of bells and popups on the desks right now. Automated messages like risk limits and risk alerts. It’s maximum overstimulation, maximum dopamine saturation.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Globalization, President Donald Trump, Psychology, Stock Market, The U.S. Government

(NYT Magazine) The Panic Industry Boom

Fortifying the American home has become big business, selling escape tunnels, secret arsenals and even flammable moats. 

Ron Hubbard, the chief executive of Atlas Survival Shelters, runs one of many companies that designs and builds bunkers for wealthy clients. His business is booming.

A 2023 survey found that about one-third of American adults were prepping for a doomsday scenario, spending a collective $11 billion over 12 months.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Eschatology, Housing/Real Estate Market

(FA) Adam Posen-Trade Wars are Easy to Lose

In short, the U.S. economy will suffer enormously in a large-scale trade war with China, which the current levels of Trump-imposed tariffs, at more than 100 percent, surely constitute if left in place. In fact, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates. The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough, but it’s in fact putting the U.S. economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation.

The United States will face shortages of critical inputs ranging from basic ingredients of most pharmaceuticals to inexpensive semiconductors used in cars and home appliances to critical minerals for industrial processes including weapons production. The supply shock from drastically reducing or zeroing out imports from China, as Trump purports to want to achieve, would mean stagflation, the macroeconomic nightmare seen in the 1970s and during the COVID pandemic, when the economy shrank and inflation rose simultaneously. In such a situation, which may be closer at hand than many think, the Federal Reserve and fiscal policymakers are left with only terrible options and little chance of staving off unemployment except by further raising inflation.

When it comes to real war, if you have reason to be afraid of being invaded, it would be suicidal to provoke your adversary before you’ve armed yourself. That is essentially what Trump’s economic attack risks: given that the U.S. economy is entirely dependent on Chinese sources for vital goods (pharmaceutical stocks, cheap electronic chips, critical minerals), it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade. By doing it the other way around, the administration is inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent.

This could all be intended as just a negotiating tactic, Trump’s and Bessent’s repeated statements and actions notwithstanding. But even on those terms, the strategy will do more harm than good. As I warned in Foreign Affairs last October, the fundamental problem with Trump’s economic approach is that it would need to carry out enough self-harming threats to be credible, which means that markets and households would expect ongoing uncertainty. Americans and foreigners alike would invest less rather than more in the U.S. economy, and they would no longer trust the U.S. government to live up to any deal, making a negotiated settlement or agreement to deescalate difficult to achieve. As a result, U.S. productive capacity would decline rather than improve, which would only increase the leverage that China and others have over the United States.

The Trump administration is embarking on an economic equivalent of the Vietnam War—a war of choice that will soon result in a quagmire, undermining faith at home and abroad in both the trustworthiness and the competence of the United States—and we all know how that turned out.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, History, President Donald Trump

(Economist) Trump’s incoherent trade policy will do lasting damage

After the terror, the euphoria. When, on April 9th, President Donald Trump postponed for 90 days the most illogical and destructive of his tariffs, after a meltdown in financial markets, the s&p 500 index of American stocks rose by 9.5%, its fastest daily rise in nearly 17 years. The darkest scenarios for the world economy that had been envisaged by investors until that moment are now unlikely. It seems there is some limit to the market falls the president will tolerate on his watch. After the chaos that had followed Mr Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs a week earlier, that is no small source of comfort for the world.

But do not mistake the consolation of having avoided disaster for good fortune. The scale of the shock to global trade set off by Mr Trump is still, even now, unlike anything seen in history. He has replaced the stable trading relations which America spent over half a century building with whimsical and arbitrary policymaking, in which decisions are posted on social media and not even his advisers know what is coming next. And he is still in an extraordinary trade confrontation with China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

Investors and companies everywhere have been put through the wringer. Global markets crashed in response to Mr Trump’s first tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell by about 15%. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, as hedge funds were forced to unwind their leveraged positions. The dollar, which is supposed to be a safe haven, fell. After the tariffs were delayed, stockmarkets enjoyed a vertiginous climb. Between its low and high on the day, Nvidia’s value fluctuated by over $430bn.

Even after the tariff pause, however, Treasury yields remain elevated. Global stocks are 11% below their highs in February—and justifiably so

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(Telegraph) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard–If you think it’s alarming now, just wait for President Trump to wreck the bond market

If Trump succeeds in extracting rate cuts from the Fed and tax cuts from Congress, the same problem is going to arise. So my assumption is that he will blame the symptoms and will resort to price controls.

The elephantine difference is that US federal debt was 34pc of GDP in 1971. Today it is 122pc on the Fed measure, and galloping upwards. The fiscal deficit is over 6pc as far as the eye can see.

If you think the stock market gyrations of the last few days are terrifying, just wait until Trump destroys the credibility of the Fed and of US treasury debt, the anchor of the global system.

He could order a captive Fed to relaunch quantitative easing and buy the bonds, but to do that when inflation is running hot would be seen by the whole world as naked fiscal dominance. It would set off a price spiral and a collapse of the currency – the sort of outcome seen over the decades in Latin America, or Erdoğan’s Turkey.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Budget, Credit Markets, Economy, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Gallup) In U.S., Inability to Pay for Care, Medicine Hits New High

 The percentage of U.S. adults who have recently been unable to afford or access quality healthcare has reached 11% — equivalent to nearly 29 million people — its highest level since 2021, according to new findings from the West Health-Gallup Healthcare Indices Study, which classifies these individuals as “Cost Desperate.”

The most notable increases since 2021 have occurred among Hispanic adults (up eight percentage points to 18%), Black adults (up five points to 14%,) and the lowest-income households, earning under $24,000 per year (up 11 points to 25%). Meanwhile, there has been no meaningful change in the proportion of White adults or middle- to high-income earners facing the same level of struggle. As a result, disparities in access to healthcare based on race, ethnicity and income are also at their highest point since surveying began.

Compared with 2021, the percentage of Americans aged 65 and above who are considered Cost Desperate has edged up just one point to 4% in 2024, while rates have risen by three points among those aged 50-64 (now 11%) and by four points among those younger than 50 (now 14%).

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Health & Medicine, Personal Finance

(NY Post) Welcome to the age of Kidults? Grown-ups are buying more toys than preschoolers — to the tune of $1 billion

Bob Friedland’s home in Little Falls, NJ, is filled with Lego. Lego flowers adorn his dining room table. A Lego reproduction of Van Gogh’s “Starry Night” hangs in his office. He has 10 Lego city skylines scattered throughout his abode (one for every town he’s visited). On Halloween, he strings lights on his Lego “Nightmare Before Christmas” set and displays it at the bay window at the front of his house. 

“I had to move out of my condo and into a house to find a place to put them all,” Friedland, 50, told The Post.

Friedland has worked in the toy industry as a marketer for decades, but he only began seriously playing with Lego in 2020. 

Like many adults stuck at home during the Coronavirus pandemic that spring, Friedland found himself alone and anxious. He remembered how playing with the snappable plastic building blocks had brought him joy as a child. So he bought a 1,000-piece Lego “Voltron” set — based on the 1980s cartoon. And then bought another, and another. He’s completed at least 50 sets since, re-creating everything from a bonsai plant to the set of Jerry’s apartment on “Seinfeld.”

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Children, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, History

(FT) US debt burden to top world war two peak in coming years, watchdog says

The US’s federal debt burden is set to surpass the peak it reached in the wake of the second world war in coming years, Congress’s fiscal watchdog has warned, underscoring growing concerns over America’s public finances.

The Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that the US’s debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 107 per cent during the 2029 fiscal year — exceeding the 1940s era peak — and continue rising to 156 per cent by 2055. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 100 per cent for the 2025 fiscal year.

The projections come just days after Moody’s delivered a warning about the sustainability of the US’s fiscal position, with the rating agency saying that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could compromise attempts to bring its large federal deficit under control by raising interest rates.

“Mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of US debt and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel constrained in their policy choices,” the CBO said on Thursday.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, America/U.S.A., Ethics / Moral Theology, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Economist) The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs will increase the pain

Donald Trump has already raised the average tariff on America’s imports by about twice as much as he did in his entire first presidency. Just as damaging, though, has been the uncertainty about what comes next.

After April 2nd—“Liberation Day”, Mr Trump calls it—there will be another round of levies. The president promises 25% tariffs on all imported cars and country-by-country “reciprocal” tariffs based on how much his administration objects to a counterparty’s trade and tax policies. Will these plans change? Who knows? Mr Trump’s use of emergency powers means that he can do as he pleases.

This freedom may suit him. It does not, however, suit America’s businesses, which have no idea how bad the trade war will get; nor its consumers, who fear future inflation. The liberation America needs is from the paralysing uncertainty brought about by Mr Trump’s chaotic approach.

Since the president came to office, hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico have twice been announced only to be mostly postponed. A long-threatened 10% levy on China has doubled in size.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Foreign Relations, President Donald Trump

(WSJ) Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil

Americans have long equated energy security with oil. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause.

In coming years, though, energy security will mean electricity.

Power demand, stagnant for decades, is now growing rapidly, for data centers to run artificial intelligence and other digital services and, in time, transportation and buildings.

An economy dependent on electricity will be different from one dependent on oil. It will require mammoth investment in generation, distribution and transmission. It will challenge regulators and political leaders, as the supply and price of electricity become as politically potent as that of gasoline. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause.

Economic Growth Now Depends on #Electricity, Not #Oil

Americans have long equated energy security with oil. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause. In coming years, though,… pic.twitter.com/npk1LaNfL5

— MrTopStep (@MrTopStep) March 27, 2025 “>Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources

(WSJ) Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress

Rapturous applause and a sea of phones in the air greeted President Trump as he walked on stage and declared, “The golden age of America has officially begun.”

He was barely a month into office when the Saudi-backed investor conference in Miami captured the optimism. “The Nasdaq is up nearly 10% in just a few months,” Trump said, ticking through a list of economic indicators. “The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2,200 points.” On the same day, Feb. 19, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high.

But as Trump unleashed an on-one-day, off-the-next tariff fight with America’s largest trading partners, those gains unraveled. In just a few weeks, the S&P lost $4 trillion in value driven by his whipsaw trade policy, receding optimism about an artificial-intelligence boom and souring consumer sentiment caused by threats of higher prices and weaker growth. A measure of consumer sentiment fell in March for the fourth straight month to the lowest level since January 2021, the Conference Board, a business-research group, said Tuesday.

Markets in the past week have recovered some losses, but Trump is preparing his next shock: an April 2 “liberation day” suite of reciprocal tariffs he said will be applied on any trading partner that charges tariffs or imposes other trade barriers on U.S. products.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Psychology

(Economist) Chinese hacking is becoming bigger, better and stealthier

Over the past decade China’s hacking program has grown rapidly, to the point that in 2023 Christopher Wray, then FBI director, noted it was larger than that of every other major nation combined. China’s growing heft and sophistication has yielded success in three main areas.

The first is political espionage, linked primarily to the Ministry of State Security (mss), China’s foreign-intelligence service. Last year it emerged that one group of Chinese hackers, dubbed Salt Typhoon, had breached at least nine American phone companies, giving them access to the calls and messages of important officials. Ciaran Martin, who led Britain’s cyber-defense agency from 2016 to 2020, compares it to the revelations in 2013 by Edward Snowden, a government contractor, that American spy agencies were conducting cyber-espionage on a huge scale. China was “gaining vast access to the nation’s communications via a strategic spying operation of breathtaking audacity,” he says.

A second is in areas of little espionage value: hacking that lays the groundwork for sabotage in moments of crisis or war. These efforts are led by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China’s armed forces. In 2023 it became apparent that a PLA-linked hacking group known as Volt Typhoon had, over several years, burrowed into an extraordinary range of American critical infrastructure, from ports to factories to water-treatment plants, across the continental United States and in strategic American territories such as Guam.

All of that builds on a third type of hacking: the industrial-scale theft of intellectual property. In 2013 Mandiant, a cyber-threat intelligence firm, which is now part of Google, made waves when it exposed “apt1”, the label for a group of hackers linked to the PLA. apt1 was not focused on stealing political secrets or turning off power grids but on stealing blueprints, manufacturing processes and business plans from American firms. A year later, America’s government took the then unprecedented step of indicting five PLA hackers for this activity. Keith Alexander, a former head of the National Security Agency (NSA), America’s signals-intelligence service, described this as “the greatest transfer of wealth in history”.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., China, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Foreign Relations, Science & Technology

(FT) Moody’s warns on deteriorating outlook for US public finances

Credit rating group Moody’s has warned on the US fiscal outlook, saying President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates.

The rating agency said on Tuesday that America’s “fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline”, having already “deteriorated further” since it assigned a negative outlook to America’s top-notch triple A credit rating in November 2023.

While Moody’s highlighted the “extraordinary” economic resilience of the US and the role of the dollar and the Treasury market as backbones of the global financial system, its analysts also warned on Tuesday that the policies of the second Trump administration — including sweeping tariffs and plans for tax cuts — could do more harm than good for government revenues.

“The potential negative credit impact of sustained high tariffs, unfunded tax cuts and significant tail risks to the economy have diminished prospects that these formidable strengths will continue to offset widening fiscal deficits and declining debt affordability,” Moody’s said.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Budget, Economy, President Donald Trump, The U.S. Government

China’s Government Is Short of Money as Its Leaders Face Trump

Buried in China’s latest government budget were some numbers that add up to an alarming trend. Tax revenue is dropping.

The decline means that China’s national government has less money to address the country’s serious economic challenges, including a housing market crash and the near bankruptcy of hundreds of local governments.

Weak tax revenue also puts China’s leaders in a box as they square off with President Trump, who has imposed 20 percent tariffs on goods from China and threatened more to come. Beijing has less spare cash to help the export industries that are driving economic growth but could be hurt by tariffs.

The drop in tax collections leaves China’s leaders in an unfamiliar position. Until the last several years, China enjoyed robust revenue, which it used to invest in infrastructure, a rapid military buildup and extensive industrial subsidies. Even as economic growth has slowed gradually over the past 12 years, taking a dent out of consumer spending, tax revenue held fairly steady until recently.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Economy, Foreign Relations, President Donald Trump, Taxes

(FT) Why China is suddenly flooding the market with powerful AI models

The pace of China’s open-source AI push has been relentless. Since the debut in January of DeepSeek R1 — China’s answer to OpenAI’s o1 series — a wave of increasingly capable models has followed. Alibaba claims its latest AI reasoning model QwQ-32B rivals DeepSeek’s R1 and has performed well in official benchmark tests. Every few weeks, another arrives, pushing the boundaries of what open-source AI can do.

Chinese tech groups are taking a very different approach. By open sourcing AI, they not only sidestep US sanctions but also decentralize development and tap into global talent to refine their models. Even restrictions on Nvidia’s high-end chips become less of an obstacle when the rest of the world can train and improve China’s models on alternative hardware.

AI advances through iteration. Every new release builds upon the last, refining weaknesses, expanding capabilities and improving efficiency. By open-sourcing AI models, Chinese tech groups create an ecosystem where global developers continuously improve their models — without shouldering all the development costs.

The scale of this approach could fundamentally reshape AI’s economic structure. If open-source AI becomes just as powerful as proprietary US models, the ability to monetise AI as an exclusive product collapses. Why pay for closed models if a free, equally capable alternative exists?

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Economy, Science & Technology

(Economist) How hospitals inflate America’s giant health-care bill

Who is to blame for America’s enormous health-care costs? The sector accounts for almost a fifth of the country’s GDP, twice the average for wealthy countries, yet outcomes are no better. Americans under 70 are almost twice as likely as their counterparts in similarly affluent nations to die of cardiovascular diseases. Death rates due to other conditions like diabetes and kidney diseases are also much higher.

Most Americans point the finger at drugmakers, insurers or the middlemen between them. Luigi Mangione, whose trial for the alleged murder of the chief executive of UnitedHealthcare, America’s biggest health insurer, began last month, has received donations totalling $740,000. “He did what everyone else is just thinking,” wrote one sympathiser on Mr Mangione’s fundraising page recently.

More often overlooked are America’s hospitals, which took in $1.5trn in fees in 2023, according to the most recent government figures. That is triple the amount spent on medications, and accounts for a third of America’s total health-care spending (see chart 1). Since 2000 hospital prices have soared by over 250%, growing at twice the overall rate for medical care and triple the rate of inflation. What is behind America’s soaring hospital bills?

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Health & Medicine

A Reflection on Saint Joseph the Worker by Tarcisio Giuseppe Stramare for his Feast Day

ZENIT spoke with Father Tarcisio Giuseppe Stramare of the Congregation of Oblates of Saint Joseph, director of the Josephite Movement, about Tuesday’s feast of St. Joseph the Worker….

ZENIT: What does “Gospel of work” mean?

Father Stramare: “Gospel” is the Good News that refers to Jesus, the Savior of humanity. Well, despite the fact that in general we see Jesus as someone who teaches and does miracles, he was so identified with work that in his time he was regarded as “the son of the carpenter,” namely, an artisan himself. Among many possible activities, the Wisdom of God chose for Jesus manual work, entrusted the education of his Son not to the school of the learned but to a humble artisan, namely, St. Joseph.

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Posted in Anthropology, Children, Church History, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Marriage & Family, Theology, Theology: Scripture

(Economist) Will Trump’s tariffs turbocharge foreign investment in America?

Some firms may even intend to quietly pare back their investment plans. In 2017 Foxconn, a Taiwanese maker of electronics, vowed to spend $10bn on a plant in Wisconsin that would employ 13,000 people. Mr Trump visited the proposed site, proclaiming it the “eighth wonder of the world”. Yet after much watering down of plans, the company said last year that it had spent just $1bn on the project, and created only 1,000 jobs.

Faced with American tariffs, some foreign companies could instead direct their attention elsewhere. That has been the case with Chinese firms, which bore the brunt of the duties imposed during Mr Trump’s first term. The flow of greenfield FDI from China to America slid from $8.2bn in 2016 to $6.5bn last year. According to Morgan Stanley, listed Chinese firms generated around a quarter of their foreign sales in America in 2024, down from roughly a half in 2016. Instead, they have turned to the fast-growing economies of the global south.

If Mr Trump’s objective is to encourage foreign businesses to build in America, there are more effective policies at his disposal than tariffs. On the campaign trail the president also promised to slash red tape. Tortuous planning processes have long held back American manufacturing. For foreign firms, fixing those would be far more motivating. 

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, President Donald Trump, Taxes

(Washington Post) The Free-living Bureaucrat–Michael Lewis on Heather Stone of the Food and Drug Administration

If they’d been asked to write an autopsy of their marriage, Walter and Amanda Smith might have agreed that the cause of death was their lack of understanding of the institution. By the summer of 2021, they were like two people who had formed their own country before agreeing on the rules of citizenship. Walter was drinking too much and going through the motions; Amanda felt trapped and separated from the identity she’d been handed as a child. “I was raised to be a ray of sunshine inside,” she liked to say. “I’m supposed to be the joy of the room.” To which one day Walter blurted out, “You are not a ray of sunshine. You’re a black cloud.” Since they’d collided 10 years earlier in a Texarkana roadside bar — Amanda was the waitress who didn’t mind that Walter had already had too much to drink — they’d never spent a night apart. Both were easy on the eye and quirky and impulsive and extraordinarily willful. Both were also unhappy. Walter had ballooned to 250 pounds and was going through two six-packs of Budweiser a night. Amanda had decided that marrying Walter Smith after knowing him for only five months was the biggest mistake of her life — which was saying something.

Still, at first glance, they appeared to have built a life together. They’d bought a place with land around it outside De Queen, Arkansas. Walter had taken a good, if all-consuming, job fixing anything that broke inside a massive coal-fired power plant an hour’s drive away. At one stretch, he worked 12-hour shifts for 93 straight days. They’d accumulated a vast number of animals: chickens, goats, rabbits and cats, along with a surprising number of dogs. “I pick up dogs off the side of the road,” explained Amanda. Inside of six years, Amanda had given birth to three children and was pregnant with a fourth. Walter insisted on naming their first, a boy. Hunter, he’d called him, after one of his favorite writers, Hunter S. Thompson. By cobbling together names from Amanda’s side of the family, he’d named their second child, too, a daughter: Alaina. After that, Amanda seized back the naming rights and, for reasons Walter has never learned, called their third child Henry. The fourth time around, Amanda was racked with indecision. “Infant Smith,” read the baby boy’s birth certificate for the first three months after his birth. “I thought, she’s going to come up with some wild shit,” Walter said. “And one day she says it: Johnathan. And I’m like, ‘You got to be sh*&^ing me.’ It took you three months to call him John Smith?”

At a glance, they were a union, but by the summer of 2021, they were engaged in something closer to civil war. “I’m doing all the things I’m supposed to do,” Walter said. “But I wasn’t willing to do the shit that made her happy. I was doing the shit that would shut her up. I would do everything I could to keep her off my ass so she would feel guilty to ask me to quit drinking.” For example, he knew that Amanda wanted to rely less on processed foods and more on what they grew themselves. The soil on their farm was poor — just gravel and red clay that required a pickax to dent. And so before Amanda could think to ask him, Walter hauled in endless sacks of enriched soil and erected four massive garden beds.

As he worked, Alaina, then 5 years old, went out to watch and play. She loved hanging around her father. Making mud pies was her favorite hobby. Walter thought nothing of it until he looked up and saw Alaina enveloped in a dust cloud. “Hey, baby, get out from downwind of that,” he said. For a moment, he worried about the effect on her lungs of the dust. But then Alaina moved, and Walter returned to the job of making his wife unhappy.

And so their small nation was divided when its first external threat presented itself. The moment from Sept. 10, 2021, is still vivid in Amanda’s mind. “Hunter runs in and says, ‘Mom, when I’m talking to Alaina, she’s not talking back to me.’”

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Posted in Blogging & the Internet, Children, Health & Medicine, History, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Marriage & Family, Pastoral Theology, Science & Technology, The U.S. Government

(MTR) The cheapest way to supercharge America’s power grid

US electricity consumption is rising faster than it has in decades, thanks in part to the boom in data center development, the resurgence in manufacturing, and the increasing popularity of electric vehicles. 

Accommodating that growth will require building wind turbines, solar farms, and other power plants faster than we ever have before—and expanding the network of wires needed to connect those facilities to the grid.

But one major problem is that it’s expensive and slow to secure permits for new transmission lines and build them across the country. This challenge has created one of the biggest obstacles to getting more electricity generation online, reducing investment in new power plants and stranding others in years-long “interconnection queues” while they wait to join the grid.

Fortunately, there are some shortcuts that could expand the capacity of the existing system without requiring completely new infrastructure: a suite of hardware and software tools known as advanced transmission technologies (ATTs), which can increase both the capacity and the efficiency of the power sector.

ATTs have the potential to radically reduce timelines for grid upgrades, avoid tricky permitting issues, and yield billions in annual savings for US consumers.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Science & Technology

(Economist) How Trump provoked a stockmarket sell-off

The sell-off shows no sign of stopping. America’s S&P 500 index dropped by another 3% on March 10th, leaving the world’s most watched stockmarket down by almost 9% since its peak last month. The NASDAQ, dominated by tech firms, has fallen by 13%. It is not quite the bold new era of American growth that President Donald Trump had in mind.

His unpredictable trade policies got things going. Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico—which were instituted on March 4th, before being suspended for a month on March 6th—top investors’ list of concerns. But after years of impressive growth, the future of the American economy is a growing source of anxiety, too, with worries provoked by a steady drip of discouraging data. Such news is beginning to undermine belief in American exceptionalism: after all, investors have seen much better returns in China and Europe this year. And as is often the case when markets fall, each development has revealed fresh things to lose sleep over.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, President Donald Trump, Stock Market

(Economist) Donald Trump’s economic delusions are already hurting America

In his speech to Congress on March 4th President Donald Trump painted a fantastical picture. The American Dream, he declared, was surging bigger and better than ever before. His tariffs would preserve jobs, make America richer still, and protect its very soul. Unfortunately, in the real world things look different. Investors, consumers and companies show the first signs of souring on the Trumpian vision. With his aggressive and erratic protectionism, Mr Trump is playing with fire.

By imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, also on March 4th, Mr Trump is setting light to one of the world’s most integrated supply chains. Although he belatedly delayed duties on cars by one month, plenty of other industries will suffer. He has also raised tariffs on China and has threatened the European Union, Japan and South Korea. Some of these duties may also be deferred; others may never materialise. Yet in economics as in foreign relations, it is becoming clear that policy is being set on the president’s whim. That will cause lasting damage at home and abroad.

When Mr Trump won the election in November, investors and bosses cheered him on. The S&P 500 rose by nearly 4% in the week after the vote in anticipation of the new president lighting a bonfire of red tape and bringing about generous tax cuts. His protectionist and anti-immigration rhetoric, investors hoped, would come to nothing. A stockmarket correction or a return of inflation would surely curb his worst instincts.

Alas, those hopes are going up in smoke….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(FT) Global government borrowing set to hit record $12.3 Trillion

Global government borrowing is expected to reach a record $12.3tn this year, as a rise in defence and other spending by major economies and higher interest rates combine to push up debt levels.

The 3 per cent rise in sovereign bond issuance across 138 countries would take the total debt stock — which has been pushed higher by the global financial crisis, coronavirus pandemic and now the need for greater European defence spending — to a record $76.9tn, according to estimates by S&P Global Ratings.

Big economies’ focus on fiscal policy to “deal with crisis after crisis continues, and the outcome is you do have a much more indebted sovereign picture”, said Roberto Sifon-Arevalo, global head of sovereigns at S&P. This had been compounded, he added, by a rise in debt-servicing costs, as bond yields have moved substantially higher since the end of central banks’ bond-buying programmes.

Borrowing to fund higher spending “was fine and sustainable while you had the borrowing costs that you had before the pandemic, now it presents a much bigger problem”, Sifon-Arevalo said.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Credit Markets, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Globalization, History, Politics in General

(Bloomberg) Facebook, Tinder and Airbnb Apps are Used for Sex Trafficking in Colombia

Sandra, a teenage girl who wears her curly brown hair tied back in braids, awaited the instant message on her mobile phone. The instructions were matter of fact: Wear makeup and a short skirt. If possible, don a crop top.

Like other girls in her neighborhood outside Medellín, Colombia, Sandra said she didn’t always have food for dinner, let alone trendy clothes and electronics. But a friend tipped her off to a sure-fire way to make money fast. This amiguita, she said, told her about the plentiful meals she could afford, the iPhone she uses, the motorcycle she’d soon be sitting astride. Sandra could enjoy this life too, her friend said. The cost? Her virginity. To a foreigner.

Sandra agreed. Her friend connected then-14-year-old Sandra and her younger sister Verónica (both of whose names Bloomberg changed to protect the siblings against reprisal), with a woman, who, on social media projected a youthful, fun-loving air. Known as la patrona, the woman posed in one photo in a white bikini, hand on hip, on a poolside lounge chair surrounded by palm trees.

The woman expeditiously gathered up the girls’ identity numbers and nude photos. She offered them an advance of 8.6 million pesos ($1,990) for jobs well done. The interchanges were carried out through Meta Platforms Inc.’s social media apps Facebook and Messenger, according to Sandra.

Recruitment and grooming of children are but the first in a multi-step process…

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Posted in --Social Networking, Blogging & the Internet, Colombia, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Law & Legal Issues, Science & Technology, Sexuality, Teens / Youth, Violence, Women

(Economist) Trump’s armed forces won’t look like Biden’s

Donald Trump, seeing “a big, beautiful Ocean” between his country and the world’s problems, wants to curtail America’s responsibilities abroad. His party is also broadly keen on increasing military spending, and the Trump administration, working with Congress, has new priorities for the Pentagon.

In February several media outlets reported that Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, had ordered a $50bn cut to Pentagon spending. Yet the reported memorandum’s vague language and fuzzy maths belied the reality that Mr Hegseth was seeking cuts merely to offset new spending on “America First” programmes. The Pentagon chief vowed that the changes would make the American “military once again into the most lethal, badass force on the planet”.


Defence spending is poised to rise above levels in the Biden era, when the former president consistently requested after-inflation reductions to outlays. On February 21st the Senate approved $150bn in new defence spending, on top of the department’s existing annual budget that approaches $900bn. The following week a House bill approved $100bn. Some Hill appropriators wonder whether these big numbers will survive the give-and-take of complex spending negotiations, but it is clear that if Mr Trump is pulling back from the world, he isn’t yet pulling back on defence spending. 

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Military / Armed Forces, Science & Technology

(WSJ) Humanoid Robots Finally Get Real Jobs

Science fiction has long been full of robots that look, move and even think like we do. In the real world humanoid forms have, until very recently, been a nonstarter. Hard to build, expensive, slow and lumbering, they have never made sense compared with the countless other varieties of purpose-built—and vastly more affordable—robots that have multiplied rapidly in the past decade. 

That’s changing. As global demand for new kinds of robots has shot up, mass manufacturing and falling costs for components are making them cheaper to produce. Just as important, new kinds of AI—some close kin to the kind that has upended the priorities of tech companies and governments since the debut of ChatGPT—are animating robot bodies in ways that simply weren’t possible even a few years ago.

While purpose-built robots continue to proliferate, be they wheeled conveyances or dog-shaped machines carrying guns, the advantages of a body plan like ours are beginning to carve out a niche for humanoid robots. The world, after all, is built for things that look and move like we do. It’s full of stairs, gangways, shelves at shoulder height and sightlines at eye level, so hewing to the humanoid form makes it easier to slot robots into existing roles. Then there are the more subtle advantages of the human form—we can pick up heavy loads by cantilevering them over bent legs. By contrast, a robot with wheels and arms would have to have a much wider and heavier base to keep from tipping over.

More than a dozen startups worldwide are now offering humanoid robots….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Anthropology, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology