Category : Economy

(Washington Post) Medicare, Medicaid plans to experiment with covering weight loss drugs

Some obese Americans on Medicare and Medicaid could get access to expensive weight loss drugs under a five-year experiment being planned by the Trump administration.

Under the proposed plan, state Medicaid programs and Medicare Part D insurance plans will be able to voluntarily choose to cover Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound for patients for “weight management” purposes, according to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services documents obtained by The Washington Post.

It’s a strong signal that the administration is open to more broadly covering GLP-1 drugs — lauded by many as a miracle solution to Americans’ long-standing struggle with weight — through government insurance programs. Medicare covers the drugs mainly for patients with Type 2 diabetes, even as some private insurance plans cover them for patients with obesity.

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Posted in Drugs/Drug Addiction, Health & Medicine, Medicaid, Medicare, The U.S. Government

(NYT) Trump’s Tariffs Are the Highest in a Century. But After His Threats, They Seem Like a Relief.

Six months ago, few people would have anticipated that the United States would place a 15 percent tariff on exports from Japan, one of America’s closest and most longstanding allies. President Trump had campaigned on the idea of a 10 percent universal base-line tariff, plus a higher levy on China, but it was not clear whether he would follow through.

But on Tuesday, when Mr. Trump announced a trade deal that included a 15 percent tariff on Japanese products — the highest rate those goods have faced in decades — there was a palpable sense of relief. Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose. The Japanese Nikkei 225 surged by over 3.5 percent, while shares of Japanese automakers, which will also be charged a 15 percent tariff on their exports to the United States, jumped more than 10 percent. The reaction is a testament to just how quickly and completely Mr. Trump has transformed the world’s expectations regarding tariffs.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

NYT front page–Medicare Pay Rule Would Favor Primary Care Over Specialists 

For decades, the prices Medicare pays doctors for different medical services have been largely decided not by Medicare itself, but by a powerful industry group, the American Medical Association.

An A.M.A. committee meets in secret to determine the difficulty and time demands of each type of medical visit, test and procedure, and then recommends to Medicare how much doctors should be paid for performing them.

And for decades, critics have complained that this process unfairly rewards surgeons and other specialists, at the expense of primary care physicians and other generalists.

Medicare officials have been loath to change it because it has spared them from needing their own staff and budget to make such pricing decisions, along with the unpleasant politics of adjudicating conflicts between competing groups of physicians.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Health & Medicine, Medicare

(WSJ) The U.S. Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger

When President Trump slapped tariffs on nations across the globe this spring, many economists feared higher prices and spending cuts would flatten the economy.

Consumer sentiment collapsed. The S&P 500 stock index fell by 19% between February and April. The world held its breath and waited for the bottom to drop out.

But that didn’t happen. Now businesses and consumers are regaining their swagger, and evidence is mounting that those who held back are starting to splurge again.

The stock market is reaching record highs. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn’t materialized—at least not yet.

“We’ve been surprised again and again by consumers,” said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays. In April, Millar predicted that the U.S. economy would likely go into recession this year. He now expects it to keep growing, albeit at a slow pace.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Consumer/consumer spending, Economy

(NYT) Upended by Methamphetamine, Some Communities Are Paying Users to Quit

Jamie Mains showed up for her checkup so high that there was no point in pretending otherwise. At least she wasn’t shooting fentanyl again; medication was suppressing those cravings. Now it was methamphetamine that manacled her, keeping her from eating, sleeping, thinking straight. Still, she could not stop injecting.

“Give me something that’s going to help me with this,” she begged her doctor.

“There is nothing,” the doctor replied.

Overcoming meth addiction has become one of the biggest challenges of the national drug crisis. Fentanyl deaths have been dropping, in part because of medications that can reverse overdoses and curb the urge to use opioids. But no such prescriptions exist for meth, which works differently on the brain.

In recent years, meth, a highly addictive stimulant, has been spreading aggressively across the country, rattling communities and increasingly involved in overdoses. Lacking a medical treatment, a growing number of clinics are trying a startlingly different strategy: To induce patients to stop using meth, they pay them.

The approach has been around for decades, but most clinics were uneasy about adopting it because of its bluntly transactional nature. 

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Posted in Anthropology, Drugs/Drug Addiction, Ethics / Moral Theology, Health & Medicine, Personal Finance, Psychology

(FP) Joe Nocera–The Consulting Crash Is Coming

Another reason companies hire consultants is to cover their *&^. As the old saying goes, “Nobody ever got fired for hiring McKinsey”; even if the project goes poorly, the CEO can blame the consultant instead of management.

But it’s becoming much more difficult for consulting firms to stick with their old tactics, and their old business model. The industry is being disrupted by two powerful forces. The first is the Trump administration’s crackdown on consulting for the federal government. According to the General Services Administration, the top 10 contractors alone were set to be paid $65 billion by the government in 2025—and the administration is adamant that that number be substantially reduced. It is voiding contracts that it does not believe are “mission critical.” And it is insisting that government consultants find significant savings—or else.

In a pointed letter to procurement officials throughout the government, acting GSA head Stephen Ehikian, complaining about the amount the government was spending on consultants, wrote: “This needs to, and must, change.”

The second factor is the arrival of artificial intelligence as a dominant force in American business. Although the big consulting firms are hoping to make money providing AI services to clients, the clients have figured out that AI can often provide an analysis in 10 minutes that used to take a team of junior consultants weeks or months to do. “It used to take two weeks to do a SWOT analysis with all the people engaged in doing research,” said Soren Kaplan, an innovation expert who has predicted for years that AI would upend the consulting business. (“SWOT” stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.) “Now it takes two minutes with AI. It is going to change the economics in a huge way, making everything cheaper and faster. And this is going to come into play in consulting in a huge way.” Ten minutes of work versus two weeks means a lot less money for the consultants.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, History, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(CT) Emmanuel Nwachukwu–My encounter with a false health-and-wealth gospel in Nigeria

Oyakhilome taught his members to make declarative statements such as “Debt has no hold over me! I operate in financial liberty, owing no man anything except love. I have more than enough to fund my dreams, support my family, and be a blessing to others.” Caleb argued that this strong belief leads to victory.

The prosperity gospel capitalizes on half-truths: Yes, we must believe in God to be blessed by him. But the Bible never tells us that the strength of our faith will magically procure all our needs.

Biblical faith is a deep trust in God. We trust him because of his character and promises, no matter what happens—good or bad, riches or poverty. We know that God is faithful and works all things for our good (Rom. 8:28). But the prosperity gospel creates a transactional relationship with God. As with a slot machine, you hope to get what you want. The prosperity gospel creates a God who serves our purposes rather than recognizing the true God, who created us for himself. True faith is focused on God, not on self.

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Posted in Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Nigeria, Pentecostal, Theology, Theology: Scripture

(The Economist) Are we seeing the emergence of a New Teflon Economy?

The emergence of a new form of capitalism—call it the teflon economy—may be behind these shifts. On one side of the equation, firms are better than ever at dealing with shocks, meaning that markets continue to function even at a time when politics breaks down. On the other side, governments offer their economies unprecedented levels of protection.

Start with supply chains, which have received a number of shocks in recent years. The conventional narrative that they are prone to “failure” is largely wrong. During the pandemic some commodities became a lot more expensive—but this was a consequence of an enormous surge in demand, rather than falling supply. Semiconductors are a classic example. In 2021 chipmakers shipped 1.2trn units, some 15% more than the year before. The industry did not really suffer a “supply crunch”. Rather, it responded efficiently to an extreme surge in demand.

According to the New York Fed’s supply-chain pressure index, bottlenecks have remained in line with the long-run average, even in the face of Mr Trump’s trade war. We find similar results in our analysis of 33,000 commodities that America imported from 1989 to 2024. For each year, we counted the number where imports declined from the previous year by more than 20%, even as the price of those imports rose by more than 20%. This hints at situations where a supply chain genuinely “fails”. We calculate that the failure rate has been trending down over time. 

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Globalization, History, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(NYT) Their Water Taps Ran Dry in Georgia When Meta Built Next Door

After Meta broke ground on a $750 million data center on the edge of Newton County, Ga., the water taps in Beverly and Jeff Morris’s home went dry.

The couple’s house, which uses well water, is 1,000 feet from Meta’s new data center. Months after construction began in 2018, the Morrises’ dishwasher, ice maker, washing machine and toilet all stopped working, said Beverly Morris, now 71. Within a year, the water pressure had slowed to a trickle. Soon, nothing came out of the bathroom and kitchen taps.

Jeff Morris, 67, eventually traced the issues to the buildup of sediment in the water. He said he suspected the cause was Meta’s construction, which could have added sediment to the groundwater and affected their well. The couple replaced most of their appliances in 2019, and then again in 2021 and 2024. Residue now gathers at the bottom of their backyard pool. The taps in one of their two bathrooms still do not work….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Corporations/Corporate Life, Ecology, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Science & Technology

(NYT) Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any.

…[America] lags behind Russia and China in manufacturing drones, training soldiers to use them and defending against them, according to interviews with more than a dozen U.S. military officials and drone industry experts….

Drones have become a weapon of choice on modern battlefields. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, soldiers beat back the Russian invasion by adding deadly modifications to the Mavic, a drone sold to hobbyists by DJI, a Chinese company that is the world’s largest drone manufacturer. Versions of the Mavic cost between $300 and $5,000, according to online retailers.

DJI, of Shenzhen, China, accounts for about 70 percent of all commercial drones sold globally for hobby and industrial use, such as aerial photography, package delivery and weather research. The privately held company sells its equipment to customers in the United States — there’s even an authorized store on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan — but U.S. law bars the military from buying Chinese drones. The company declined to share market data, but industry experts estimate that DJI’s output far exceeds that of any other drone manufacturer.

“No one even comes close,” said Bobby Sakaki, chief executive of UAS NEXUS, a drone industry consultant. “DJI can make millions of drones per year. That is a hundred times more than anybody in the United States can make.”

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Posted in America/U.S.A., China, Corporations/Corporate Life, Military / Armed Forces, Science & Technology

(Economist) The big problem of America’s broken construction industry

America’s broken construction industry is a big problem for Trump–The Empire State Building, finished in 1931, was erected in just 410 days. That same year construction began on the Hoover Dam. It was meant to take seven years, but was built in five. Such feats now seem hard to imagine. Last year half of America’s construction firms reported that commercial projects they were working on had been delayed or abandoned.

In 2008 Californian voters approved a high-speed-rail line connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco, to be finished by 2020. It will be at least a decade late. America’s inability to build is a problem for Donald Trump. Although he has again delayed levying “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1st, the president’s commitment to reviving American manufacturing through protectionism is as strong as ever. But can the country build the factories, warehouses and bridges needed to reindustrialize, and do so quickly enough? And if the administration is to achieve its ambition to win the artificial-intelligence race, it will have to ramp up the construction of data centres and electrical infrastructure, too.

Demand for projects is certainly soaring. Turner Construction Company, America’s largest commercial builder, reported that its order backlog rose by a fifth, year on year, in the first quarter of 2025. Yet delays and cost overruns remain inevitable. Productivity has gone from bad to worse. Since 2000, output per worker in the construction industry has fallen by 8%, even as it has risen by 54% for the private sector as a whole. The trouble is not limited to commercial projects. America’s housebuilding companies constructed the same number of dwellings per employee as they did nine decades ago, contributing to widespread shortages and soaring prices. Behind this dismal state of affairs is a combination of fragmentation, overregulation and underinvestment

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Housing/Real Estate Market, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market

(FT) US utilities plot big rise in electricity rates as data centre demand booms

US power providers are seeking to impose big price increases on consumers following booming data centre demand, sparking debate over who should pay for the electricity burden of artificial intelligence.

Utilities have sought regulatory approval for $29bn in rate increases in the first half of 2025, a 142 per cent increase over the same period a year ago, according to a new report by PowerLines, an energy affordability advocacy group.

These increases highlight the question of whether surging electricity costs will be shared among all consumers, or charged directly to the large industrial users driving the new demand. Power consumption is expected to more than double in the next decade because of energy-intensive AI, according to BloombergNEF.

“What we’re . . . seeing is a deer-in-headlights dynamic,” said PowerLines executive director Charles Hua. “A lot of states don’t have a playbook for how they can meet rising [data centre] demand while balancing affordability and utility bills.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources

(Paul Kedrosky) How AI & Robots are Smashing Economics, and Why It Matters

The flattening of the Phillips curve, accelerated by the integration of AI and robotics into the workforce, represents a fundamental disruption of economic orthodoxy. As machines replace human workers across industries, the traditional relationship between unemployment and inflation is eroding, rendering conventional monetary policy tools ineffective.

The implications extend beyond dry economic theory. As automation reshapes the labor market, our very conceptions of work, productivity, and social value are called into question. For example, large swaths of the education system, still largely geared towards preparing workers for a human-dominated job market, faces obsolescence.

These changes are not merely challenging—they are potentially destabilizing. The flattening Phillips curve is a harbinger of profound economic and social upheaval. Our economic frameworks, developed in and for a world where human labor was paramount, are increasingly misaligned with the realities of an automated economy.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, Anthropology, Economy, History, Science & Technology

(NYT) With Taxes and Tariffs in Place, Trump Takes Reins of U.S. Economy

His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.

With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.

Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.

Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, President Donald Trump

(NYT) Which Workers Will A.I. Hurt Most: The Young or the Experienced?

Some experts argue that A.I. is most likely to affect novice workers, whose tasks are generally simplest and therefore easiest to automate. Dario Amodei, the chief executive of the A.I. company Anthropic, recently told Axios that the technology could cannibalize half of all entry-level white-collar roles within five years. An uptick in the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has aggravated this concern, even if it doesn’t prove that A.I. is the cause of their job-market struggles.

But other captains of the A.I. industry have taken the opposite view, arguing that younger workers are likely to benefit from A.I. and that experienced workers will ultimately be more vulnerable. In an interview at a New York Times event in late June, Brad Lightcap, the chief operating officer of OpenAI, suggested that the technology could pose problems for “a class of worker that I think is more tenured, is more oriented toward a routine in a certain way of doing things.”

The ultimate answer to this question will have vast implications. If entry-level jobs are most at risk, it could require a rethinking of how we educate college students, or even the value of college itself. And if older workers are most at risk, it could lead to economic and even political instability as large-scale layoffs become a persistent feature of the labor market.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(Economist) How America’s economy is dodging disaster

Zooming in on the prices of affected categories at a few large retailers, Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and co-authors do discern some slight price rises in both imported goods and their domestically produced competitors (see chart 2). However, such prices have risen by only a percent or two—a far smaller increase than that seen in tariffs. America’s effective tariff rate is now at 12%, according to calculations by the Tax Foundation, a think-tank, its highest in nearly a century. Reverting to Mr Trump’s initial Liberation Day offering would mean a significant step up.

Oddly, though, tariffs may be pushing down prices via another mechanism—by taking a toll on the economy. The Liberation Day drama crushed consumer confidence, possibly softening demand. Until recently, this has been evident only in “soft” data (surveys and the like). Now signs of it are starting to appear in “hard” data, too. A recent release showed that household spending fell month-to-month in May. Employment figures for June were strong, but bolstered by government hiring, especially of teachers. Those for the private sector were lower than expected.

A running estimate of GDP, produced by the Fed’s Atlanta branch, suggests that its core components (private investment and consumption) have fallen from an annualised growth rate of 2-3% at the start of the second quarter to 1% now (see chart 3). Goldman Sachs, a bank, has compared the latest data to previous “event driven” shocks that led to recessions, and found that today’s slowdown is roughly in line with the historical norm.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Economy

(Economist) Does working from home kill company culture?

But on other measures, firms that were strict on office time scored worse than more relaxed ones (see chart). Firms with five-day mandates received lower marks from employees for supportiveness (whether employees feel like their bosses care about them), quality of leadership, toxicity (the extent to which disrespectful behaviour is tolerated in the workplace), candour and work-life balance. (On the three other measures tracked by CultureX, the companies did not score meaningfully better or worse.)

The analysis has its limitations. In particular, it could also be the case that companies which care less about supporting employees or rooting out toxic behaviour are less inclined to heed workers’ pleas for more flexibility. Even so, the results are suggestive. “Companies that really score highly on agility—NVIDIA, SpaceX, Tesla—tend to strike a deal with their employees,” says Don Sull (who is also a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management). Employees are offered generous pay, great career opportunities and other perks. “But the trade-off is the work-life balance tends to be really bad.”

More than five years after the pandemic, companies are still trying to find the right mix of in-person and remote work. As labour markets cool, shifting power from employees to employers, bosses may be tempted to demand more office time, claiming that it will help corporate culture. For firms that prize agility, this makes sense. But the data suggest it comes a cost.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market

(Gallup) AI Use at Work Has Nearly Doubled in Two Years

The use of AI at work is accelerating. In the past two years, the percentage of U.S. employees who say they have used AI in their role a few times a year or more has nearly doubled, from 21% to 40%. Frequent AI use (a few times a week or more) has also nearly doubled, from 11% to 19% since Gallup’s first measure in 2023. Daily use has doubled in the past 12 months alone, from 4% to 8%.

AI adoption has increased primarily for white-collar roles. Twenty-seven percent of white-collar employees report frequently using AI at work, an increase of 12 percentage points since 2024. The industries with the highest percentages of frequent AI users include technology (50%), professional services (34%) and finance (32%).

In comparison, reported frequent AI use by production and front-line workers has remained essentially flat for the past two years, shifting from 11% in 2023 to 9% in 2025.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(Barrons) Your July 4th Burgers Will Be Pricey. Maybe Grill Pork Chops Instead.

Beef prices are sizzling, just in time for that favorite national pastime on July 4: grilling, barbecuing, and picnicking to celebrate U.S. independence.

But economic uncertainty has shaken up consumers this summer season. This year, total spending for Fourth of July festivities dropped 5.3% from last year to $8.9 billion, according to survey data from the National Retail Federation. Of the people surveyed, 61% will participate in cookouts, picnics and barbecues, down 5% from last year.

Pricier hamburgers could be one factor discouraging some Americans from opening their doors for an annual cookout.

The average price of ground beef rose 11.5% to $6.25 a pound in May from a year earlier, according to consumer price index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average monthly price of ground beef has shot up 31% since 2020, based on 2025 data through May.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Consumer/consumer spending, Dieting/Food/Nutrition, Economy

(Economist) Trumponomics 2.0 will erode the foundations of America’s prosperity

…the One Big Beautiful Bill act (BBB) that passed the Senate on July 1st and the House on July 3rd looks more like traditional tax-cutting, spending-slashing Republicanism worthy of Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney than it does a MAGA fantasy. Suddenly, business leaders are again willing to see Mr Trump as the populist from his first term: a man to be taken seriously but not literally.

Unfortunately, the BBB, which Mr Trump plans to sign into law on July 4th, is likely to cast a shadow over this sunny picture. It illustrates the long-term damage Mr Trump is doing to the foundations of America’s economy.

The bill’s main effect is to extend the tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term which were due to expire. Republicans paint this as an extension of the status quo. Yet they, like the Democrats before them, ignore the fact that the status quo is unsustainable. Over the past 12 months America’s budget deficit has been an astonishing 6.7% of GDP. If the bill passes, the deficit will remain around that level and the country’s debt-to-gdp ratio will in about two years exceed the 106% reached after the second world war. Revenue from tariffs will help, but not enough to stop the ratio rising—meaning that the drift towards crisis will continue.

To the extent the bill tightens the belt, it does so in the wrong places. As life expectancies rise and the population ages, America should trim handouts to the old, for example by raising the retirement age. Instead, pensioners are getting a tax break and Republicans are cutting Medicaid, health insurance for the hard-up. Some sensible measures include reducing the ability of states to game the system for more federal cash. Yet according to official projections, the overall effect will be to add nearly 12m to the number of Americans without health insurance. That is a scandalous number for the world’s richest big country. Many of those who lose coverage will fall foul of new requirements that recipients must work. Such rules have in the past created an obstacle course of paperwork for claimants while failing to boost employment.

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Posted in Budget, House of Representatives, Medicaid, Medicare, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Economist) Looking at the Content of the Senate Tax and Budget bill passed today

In the days leading up to the final vote, the CRFB assessed that the measure would add between $3trn and $4trn to the deficit. It includes a smorgasbord of tax cuts whose fiscal effects are only partially offset by other reforms. The tax cuts include Mr Trump’s campaign promises to remove tax on tips and overtime pay. In theory those are temporary and will elapse when Mr Trump leaves office. In practice, once taxes are cut they often stay cut (as Republicans’ new accounting method implies). The bill would also set up “Trump accounts” for newborns, including one-off payments to new parents for the next three years. It would give big boosts to spending by the Department of Defence and to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which the administration wants so that it can increase the number of people deported from America.

Modelling the effects of any legislation on economic growth is hard. But the tax cuts should provide a small boost in the short term. That might help to explain the current exuberance of the stockmarkets. Over a longer timeframe the picture is different (see chart 3). The House’s original bill would shrink America’s GDP by 2% by 2050, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, a research centre. That mainly reflects the impact of a bigger debt load leading to higher interest rates, which squeeze the private sector. Some other forecasters are more optimistic, thinking that the tax cuts will push more workers into the jobs market and incentivise investment, offsetting that impact.

America’s debt surged after the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the covid-19 pandemic. The ratio of debt to GDP is already close to the level reached after the second world war. By extending tax cuts that were set to lapse, without offsetting savings, the OBBB will drive it higher still. According to the CRFB, the Senate’s version as of June 30th would push debt to between 125% and 130% of GDP by 2034—well above the 117% forecast if the 2017 tax cuts were allowed to expire, and higher even than the 124% expected under the House bill….

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Budget, Economy, Medicaid, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, Taxes, The National Deficit

(Economist Leader) How the defence bonanza will reshape the global economy

For the first time in decades, the rich world is embarking on mass rearmament. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threat of conflict over Taiwan and President Donald Trump’s impulsive approach to alliances have all made bolstering national defence an urgent priority. On June 25th members of NATO agreed to raise their target for military spending to 3.5% of gdp, and allocated an extra 1.5% to security-related items (Spain insisted on a loophole). If they achieve that target in 2035, they will be spending $800bn more every year, in real terms, than they did before Russia invaded Ukraine. The boom goes wider than NATO. By one estimate, embattled Israel splurged more than 8% of its gdp on defence last year. Even doveish Japan plans to stump up.

Such vast sums could reshape the global economy, by squeezing public finances and shifting activity within countries. As politicians sell the benefits of rearmament to voters, many will claim that military spending will bring economic gains as well as security. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, promises defence will offer “the next generation of good, secure, well-paid jobs”. The European Commission says it will bring “benefits for all countries”. However tempting politically, such arguments are wrong. Using defence spending for economic objectives would be a costly mistake.

The most obvious economic consequence of bigger defence budgets will be to strain public finances. Debts are already high and the financial pressures on governments, caused by ageing populations and higher interest rates, are mounting. The average nato member, excluding America, will need to raise annual defence spending by 1.5% of gdp.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Defense, National Security, Military, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Economist) China is trying to win over Africa in the global trade war

At China Mall , a vast supermarket in Kampala, Uganda’s capital, Rose Ahurra picks up a small turquoise squirrel. The toy flashes as she puts it in a trolley laden with towels, clothes, containers and an air fryer. The purchases indicate her place in the Ugandan middle class, which has flocked to China Mall since it opened earlier this year. “The prices are fair and I no longer have to go to lots of individual shops,” she explains.

But the floors of mostly Chinese goods also hint at an imbalance that worries African policymakers. Total trade between China and Africa was worth $296bn in 2024. Yet the value of what China exported west ($179bn) was much higher than what Africa sent east ($117bn). This year, partly as a result of the state support China is giving to its factories to boost the domestic economy, Chinese exports to the continent are on track to be 12% higher. African countries have long asked Beijing to make it easier to trade the other way, too. Many will have welcomed China’s announcement on June 12th that it will grant duty-free access to products from every African country except Eswatini, a tiny kingdom that recognises Taiwan.

The immediate impact may be minimal. But the policy could integrate African economies more deeply into Chinese-centred supply chains as the global economy is fragmenting. Geopolitically, China’s move is as subtle as a flashing turquoise squirrel. After 25 years America is set to end its own duty-free deal with Africa when the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires on September 30th. It is imposing tariffs willy-nilly, slashing aid and banning African migrants. For its biggest competitor, that is an opportunity.

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Posted in Africa, China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Politics in General

(Barrons) After the USA strikes in Iran, where do we go from here?

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

Church of the Good Shepherd, Charleston, SC, announces the purchase of new property

“Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above, coming down from the
Father of lights, with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change.”
James 1:17

Brothers and Sisters,

On April 20, 2021 the Supreme Court of South Carolina released a verdict which set us on a course of great change and uncertainty. Two years later, after filing an unsuccessful request for rehearing we were forced to vacate our home on MilesDrive. Since then we have been a tabernacling people.

Following God’s lead towards a new land that we believed he would show us, we have been blessed to
find a temporary dwelling place on the campus of Northbridge Baptist. Shortly after we lost our property, a kind and wonderful soul approached me with a simple offer. This friend of Good Shepherd told me, “we must find a new home for Good Shepherd, and I’m willing to help make it happen.”


In the two years that have past, this individual and a few others have made pledges and sizable contributions towards the acquisition of a new home. These contributions made it possible for your vestry to pursue several potential locations, most of which have not panned out. But the tide seems to be turning. I am ecstatic to report to you that as of Wednesday, May 21 we are under contract to purchase 2.7 acres of land in the heart of West Ashley. Just a stones throw from where we have made our home in West Ashley since leaving the peninsula of Charleston in 1974, this property is located at 1231 Fuseler Drive. It is embedded in what we have long considered our core area of ministry, and walking or biking distance to the homes of a good number of Good Shepherd faithful, including your rector.

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Posted in * Anglican - Episcopal, * South Carolina, Housing/Real Estate Market, Parish Ministry

(Washington Post) Most new cars in Norway are EVs. How a freezing country beat range anxiety

Norway is “an unlikely place for a transportation revolution,” acknowledged Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association.

At the Skoda dealership in Alta, Finnmark’s largest city, salesman Orjan Dragland marveled at the transformation — how five years ago, every car on the showroom floor had a combustion engine, and now the inventory is all EVs.

In 2024, nearly 90 percent of new passenger cars sold in Norway were fully electric. Of the cars sold last month, the EV share was 97 percent.

By comparison, EVs last year accounted for 8 percent of new car sales in the United States, 13 percent in the euro zone and 27 percent in China.

“What happened” in Norway? Dragland said. “The government happened.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Ecology, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Norway, Travel

Jerri Savuto–Easter Memories: Escaping the Commercial Trap

As I am in the US for the first time in many years, I find myself longing for the simplicity of Maua, Kenya, during Easter time. There Easter has none of the commercial trappings we find here. As I enter grocery stores, discount stores, and department stores I am shocked at the amount of space taken by the Easter candy, bunnies and stuffed animals, baskets, decorations, and new spring clothing. These items take more space than any grocery store has for all their goods in Maua.

I recently read that an estimated $2 billion will be spent on Easter candy this year in the US. Two billion dollars to celebrate the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ, who asked us to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, give water to the thirsty, house the homeless, care for the sick and imprisoned, and welcome the stranger.

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Posted in Consumer/consumer spending, Easter, Religion & Culture, Theology

(NYT) Data Centers’ Hunger for Energy Could Raise All Electric Bills

Individuals and small business have been paying more for power in recent years, and their electricity rates may climb higher still.

That’s because the cost of the power plants, transmission lines and other equipment that utilities need to serve data centers, factories and other large users of electricity is likely to be spread to everybody who uses electricity, according to a new report.

The report by Wood MacKenzie, an energy research firm, examined 20 large power users. In almost all of those cases, the firm found, the money that large energy users paid to electric utilities would not be enough to cover the cost of the equipment needed to serve them. The rest of the costs would be borne by other utility customers or the utility itself.

The utilities “either need to socialize the cost to other ratepayers or absorb that cost — essentially, their shareholders would take the hit,” said Ben Hertz-Shargel, who is the global head of grid edge research for Wood MacKenzie.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Personal Finance, Science & Technology

(NYT) Why Do More Police Officers Die by Suicide Than in the Line of Duty?

Matthew Hunter woke up disoriented, his cheek against concrete. He looked around and saw a rectangular bench, a camera and a toilet. There was no window. He sat up and noticed what he was wearing: cargo shorts and a Mötley Crüe T-shirt, same as the night before. Socks but no shoes.

Hunter, who had been an officer in the Des Moines Police Department for 21 years, was on the wrong side of a cell door. He searched his memory, straining to make sense of how he got there, but found only fragments. Long stretches of the previous night had gone dark. He remembered arriving at a relative’s house in his Chevy Silverado pickup truck, walking inside with his wife for a family celebration. He recalled finishing a bottle of Jack Daniel’s. He would learn more about what happened later from body-camera footage and police reports, which said he tried to drive off in his truck, insulted officers, called them “podunk” and worse, banged his head against the side of a police van, threatened a jail guard, collapsed on the ground and wept inconsolably.

He had been in trouble long before that night. Hunter, who was 45 and recently promoted to sergeant, had been spiraling for months, ever since his best friend died by suicide. Hunter and Joe Morgan had been paired up as partners early in their careers, patrolling the mostly blue-collar neighborhoods of the city’s east side. Morgan was a couple of years older and more seasoned; he previously worked at a smaller agency and served as chief in a town of 500 before joining Des Moines, the state’s largest Police Department. The two men clicked instantly and became close. Both fanatical Minnesota Vikings fans, they found much to commiserate about during football seasons. When it snowed, they wore matching hats with furry flaps covering their ears.

On Sept. 16, 2020, Hunter was in his bedroom, changing out of his uniform, preparing to help his wife make dinner for their three children, when he received a call. “Joe Morgan just killed himself,” a sergeant told him. Hunter didn’t believe it at first. If he had been asked to name cops who might hurt themselves, his friend would not have been on the list.

He climbed into his truck and drove five minutes through the suburbs to Morgan’s home, parking on a quiet street with tidy lawns. He walked past a dozen patrol cars and approached the crime-scene tape that circled his friend’s driveway. He had ducked beneath yellow tape hundreds of times in his career, but that night he felt his pace slow, as a familiar act suddenly became filled with foreboding. He approached the officers crowded around Morgan’s S.U.V., peered between them, then stepped closer. He saw Morgan lying on his back, his shirt removed. One of his flip-flops, left behind as officers had dragged him out of the driver’s seat, dangled from the S.U.V.’s running board. There was a dark hole in his friend’s chest.

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Posted in Anthropology, Ethics / Moral Theology, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Pastoral Theology, Police/Fire, Psychology, Stress, Suicide, Theology, Violence

(NYT front page) Tariffs of 10% Now Seem Low But Can Still Batter Economy 

When Donald J. Trump championed the idea of a 10 percent blanket tariff during the campaign, many people, whether for or against, were taken aback by how radical the idea was.

Alarms sounded about higher inflation, lost jobs, slower growth or recession. The prospect seemed so outlandish that most economists and Wall Street analysts who gamed out the possibilities tended to treat a 10 percent tariff simply as a bargaining tool.

Now, after a rapid-fire series of announcements from the White House that promised, imposed, reversed, delayed, decreased and increased tariffs, the 10 percent solution is looking like the most temperate choice rather than the most revolutionary, especially now that a red-hot trade war between China and the United States is blazing.

Yet 10 percent tariffs have not lost their sting.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump