Category : * Economics, Politics

(Washington Post) Why are so many of Canada’s wildfires burning ‘out of control’?

Of the more than 200 wildfires incinerating Canadian forests — and sending smoke into the United States — more than half are burning “out of control,” and some are being monitored but allowed to burn, Canadian authorities said.

As fires intensify, so do concerns over air quality. But conditions on the ground mean that suppressing many of the fires swiftly is not realistic, authorities and researchers say.

Although Canadian authorities have mobilized a “full response” to most of the fires, which means firefighters are actively trying to suppress them, the majority are expected to continue growing, and some are being observed and analyzed without an immediate response, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC) said.

Severe winds and smoke complicate suppression efforts, significantly impairing visibility, and remote areas with tall flames pose significant challenges for the deployment of firefighters, according to wildfire researchers in Canada.

Read it all.

Posted in Canada, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, etc.

(Washington Post) Most new cars in Norway are EVs. How a freezing country beat range anxiety

Norway is “an unlikely place for a transportation revolution,” acknowledged Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association.

At the Skoda dealership in Alta, Finnmark’s largest city, salesman Orjan Dragland marveled at the transformation — how five years ago, every car on the showroom floor had a combustion engine, and now the inventory is all EVs.

In 2024, nearly 90 percent of new passenger cars sold in Norway were fully electric. Of the cars sold last month, the EV share was 97 percent.

By comparison, EVs last year accounted for 8 percent of new car sales in the United States, 13 percent in the euro zone and 27 percent in China.

“What happened” in Norway? Dragland said. “The government happened.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Ecology, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Norway, Travel

Jerri Savuto–Easter Memories: Escaping the Commercial Trap

As I am in the US for the first time in many years, I find myself longing for the simplicity of Maua, Kenya, during Easter time. There Easter has none of the commercial trappings we find here. As I enter grocery stores, discount stores, and department stores I am shocked at the amount of space taken by the Easter candy, bunnies and stuffed animals, baskets, decorations, and new spring clothing. These items take more space than any grocery store has for all their goods in Maua.

I recently read that an estimated $2 billion will be spent on Easter candy this year in the US. Two billion dollars to celebrate the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ, who asked us to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, give water to the thirsty, house the homeless, care for the sick and imprisoned, and welcome the stranger.

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Posted in Consumer/consumer spending, Easter, Religion & Culture, Theology

(ISW) Russian forces conducted one of their largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 25 to 26 after three nights of record strikes

The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war, after Russian forces conducted the largest combined strike on the night of May 24 to 25. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched nine Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast and 355 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all nine Kh-101 missiles and 233 drones over northern, eastern, southern, western, and central Ukraine and that 55 drones were “lost.” Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes targeted Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.[2] Ukrainian officials stated that the strikes caused civilian casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure and private residences.

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Posted in Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Russia, Ukraine

In Flanders Fields for Memorial Day

In Flanders Fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

–Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)

In thanksgiving for all those who gave their lives for this country in years past, and for those who continue to serve; KSH.

P.S. The circumstances which led to this remarkable poem are well worth remembering:

It is a lasting legacy of the terrible battle in the Ypres salient in the spring of 1915 and to the war in general. McCrea had spent seventeen days treating injured men — Canadians, British, French, and Germans in the Ypres salient. McCrae later wrote: “I wish I could embody on paper some of the varied sensations of that seventeen days… Seventeen days of Hades! At the end of the first day if anyone had told us we had to spend seventeen days there, we would have folded our hands and said it could not have been done.” The next day McCrae witnessed the burial of a good friend, Lieut. Alexis Helmer. Later that day, sitting on the back of an ambulance parked near the field dressing station, McCrea composed the poem. A young NCO, delivering mail, watched him write it. When McCrae finished writing, he took his mail from the soldier and, without saying a word, handed his pad to the Sergeant-major. Cyril Allinson was moved by what he read: “The poem was exactly an exact description of the scene in front of us both. He used the word blow in that line because the poppies actually were being blown that morning by a gentle east wind. It never occurred to me at that time that it would ever be published. It seemed to me just an exact description of the scene.” Colonel McCrae was dissatisfied with the poem, and tossed it away. A fellow officer retrieved it and sent it to newspapers in England. The Spectator, in London, rejected it, but Punch published it on 8 December 1915. For his contributions as a surgeon, the main street in Wimereaux is named “Rue McCrae”.

Posted in Death / Burial / Funerals, Defense, National Security, Military, Military / Armed Forces, Poetry & Literature

(NYT) Data Centers’ Hunger for Energy Could Raise All Electric Bills

Individuals and small business have been paying more for power in recent years, and their electricity rates may climb higher still.

That’s because the cost of the power plants, transmission lines and other equipment that utilities need to serve data centers, factories and other large users of electricity is likely to be spread to everybody who uses electricity, according to a new report.

The report by Wood MacKenzie, an energy research firm, examined 20 large power users. In almost all of those cases, the firm found, the money that large energy users paid to electric utilities would not be enough to cover the cost of the equipment needed to serve them. The rest of the costs would be borne by other utility customers or the utility itself.

The utilities “either need to socialize the cost to other ratepayers or absorb that cost — essentially, their shareholders would take the hit,” said Ben Hertz-Shargel, who is the global head of grid edge research for Wood MacKenzie.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Personal Finance, Science & Technology

(NYT) Why Do More Police Officers Die by Suicide Than in the Line of Duty?

Matthew Hunter woke up disoriented, his cheek against concrete. He looked around and saw a rectangular bench, a camera and a toilet. There was no window. He sat up and noticed what he was wearing: cargo shorts and a Mötley Crüe T-shirt, same as the night before. Socks but no shoes.

Hunter, who had been an officer in the Des Moines Police Department for 21 years, was on the wrong side of a cell door. He searched his memory, straining to make sense of how he got there, but found only fragments. Long stretches of the previous night had gone dark. He remembered arriving at a relative’s house in his Chevy Silverado pickup truck, walking inside with his wife for a family celebration. He recalled finishing a bottle of Jack Daniel’s. He would learn more about what happened later from body-camera footage and police reports, which said he tried to drive off in his truck, insulted officers, called them “podunk” and worse, banged his head against the side of a police van, threatened a jail guard, collapsed on the ground and wept inconsolably.

He had been in trouble long before that night. Hunter, who was 45 and recently promoted to sergeant, had been spiraling for months, ever since his best friend died by suicide. Hunter and Joe Morgan had been paired up as partners early in their careers, patrolling the mostly blue-collar neighborhoods of the city’s east side. Morgan was a couple of years older and more seasoned; he previously worked at a smaller agency and served as chief in a town of 500 before joining Des Moines, the state’s largest Police Department. The two men clicked instantly and became close. Both fanatical Minnesota Vikings fans, they found much to commiserate about during football seasons. When it snowed, they wore matching hats with furry flaps covering their ears.

On Sept. 16, 2020, Hunter was in his bedroom, changing out of his uniform, preparing to help his wife make dinner for their three children, when he received a call. “Joe Morgan just killed himself,” a sergeant told him. Hunter didn’t believe it at first. If he had been asked to name cops who might hurt themselves, his friend would not have been on the list.

He climbed into his truck and drove five minutes through the suburbs to Morgan’s home, parking on a quiet street with tidy lawns. He walked past a dozen patrol cars and approached the crime-scene tape that circled his friend’s driveway. He had ducked beneath yellow tape hundreds of times in his career, but that night he felt his pace slow, as a familiar act suddenly became filled with foreboding. He approached the officers crowded around Morgan’s S.U.V., peered between them, then stepped closer. He saw Morgan lying on his back, his shirt removed. One of his flip-flops, left behind as officers had dragged him out of the driver’s seat, dangled from the S.U.V.’s running board. There was a dark hole in his friend’s chest.

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Posted in Anthropology, Ethics / Moral Theology, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Pastoral Theology, Police/Fire, Psychology, Stress, Suicide, Theology, Violence

(NYT) Trump Waved Off Israeli Strike After Divisions Emerged in His Administration

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials and others briefed on the discussions.

Mr. Trump made his decision after months of internal debate over whether to pursue diplomacy or support Israel in seeking to set back Iran’s ability to build a bomb, at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically.

The debate highlighted fault lines between historically hawkish American cabinet officials and other aides more skeptical that a military assault on Iran could destroy the country’s nuclear ambitions and avoid a larger war. It resulted in a rough consensus, for now, against military action, with Iran signaling a willingness to negotiate.

Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May. They were prepared to carry them out, and at times were optimistic that the United States would sign off. The goal of the proposals, according to officials briefed on them, was to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Iran, Israel, Military / Armed Forces, President Donald Trump

(NYT front page) Tariffs of 10% Now Seem Low But Can Still Batter Economy 

When Donald J. Trump championed the idea of a 10 percent blanket tariff during the campaign, many people, whether for or against, were taken aback by how radical the idea was.

Alarms sounded about higher inflation, lost jobs, slower growth or recession. The prospect seemed so outlandish that most economists and Wall Street analysts who gamed out the possibilities tended to treat a 10 percent tariff simply as a bargaining tool.

Now, after a rapid-fire series of announcements from the White House that promised, imposed, reversed, delayed, decreased and increased tariffs, the 10 percent solution is looking like the most temperate choice rather than the most revolutionary, especially now that a red-hot trade war between China and the United States is blazing.

Yet 10 percent tariffs have not lost their sting.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) US Economy to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away

The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.

Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(Church Times) Get Sudan peace talks started, international conference is urged

The  Sudan conflict, which began two years ago on Tuesday, is “the world’s most severe humanitarian and displacement crisis”, the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) has said.

The fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support forces (RSF) has spread across most of the country (News, 21 April 2023).

About 150,000 people are estimated to have died during the conflict, the BBC reports. CAFOD reports that ten million people have been internally displaced, and more than three million have fled into neighbouring countries.

The Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, is hosting ministers from donor countries and the wider region at a conference in London, on Tuesday, to encourage a ceasefire and the protection of civilians.

Read it all.

Posted in Africa, Defense, National Security, Military, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Sudan, Violence

(Bloomberg) In the US-China Trade War, Can China dent the USA’s safe-haven status?

One dangerous card that China’s got is its $760 billion holdings in Treasury securities. The country is the US’s second-largest foreign creditor after Japan.

Last week, the 10-year yield jumped by 50 basis points to 4.49%, the biggest weekly surge since 2001. Some of the sharpest moves were occurring during Asian hours, prompting speculation that Beijing was in the market. Will China weaponize and dump its holdings?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed this fear aside. In a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, he talked about the beauty of being the world’s biggest borrower. “If you take a bank loan, the bank is in charge, they can repossess whatever you borrowed against. But if you take a big enough loan, you’re kind of in charge of the bank,” he said.

While that’s true in a distressed scenario, the dynamic doesn’t quite work here. Trump’s abrupt tariff U-turn exposed the White House’s Achilles’ heel: He blinked and paused hikes on all nations except China — after watching US sovereign bonds tank.

After all, Bessent, who’s now spearheading tariff negotiations, requires a stable bond market to sell into….

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

Sudan’s years of war – BBC smuggles in phones to reveal hunger and fear

“She left no last words. She was dead when she was carried away,” says Hafiza quietly, as she describes how her mother was killed in a city under siege in Darfur, during Sudan’s civil war, which began exactly two years ago.

The 21-year-old recorded how her family’s life was turned upside down by her mother’s death, on one of several phones the BBC World Service managed to get to people trapped in the crossfire in el-Fasher.

Under constant bombardment, el-Fasher has been largely cut off from the outside world for a year, making it impossible for journalists to enter the city. For safety reasons, we are only using the first names of people who wanted to film their lives and share their stories on the BBC phones.

Hafiza describes how she suddenly found herself responsible for her five-year-old brother and two teenage sisters.

Read it all.

Posted in Africa, Anthropology, Defense, National Security, Military, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, History, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Sudan, Theology, Violence

(NYT) China’s Halt of Critical Minerals Poses Risk for U.S. Military Programs

On Air Force fighter jets, magnets made of rare earth minerals that are mined or processed in China are needed to start the engines and provide emergency power.

On precision-guided ballistic missiles favored by the Army, magnets containing Chinese rare earth materials rotate the tail fins that allow missiles to home in on small or moving targets. And on new electric and battery-powered drones being adapted by Marines, rare earth magnets are irreplaceable in the compact electric motors.

China’s decision to retaliate against President Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs by ordering restrictions on the exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets is a warning shot across the bow of American national security, industry and defense experts said.

In announcing that it will now require special export licenses for six heavy rare earth metals, which are refined entirely in China, as well as rare earth magnets, 90 percent of which are produced in China, Beijing has reminded the Pentagon — if, indeed, it needed reminding — that a wide swath of American weaponry is dependent on China.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General

(Church Times) Treasury warned of ‘devastating’ consequences for churches if LPWG [Listed Places of Worship Grant] scheme ends

Churches are much more than buildings, and the Listed Places of Worship Grant (LPWG) Scheme is “beyond vital” to ensure that they can continue to be at the heart of communities, the Christian Funders’ Forum (CFF) has warned the Government.

These buildings are also often of significant architectural value, the CFF, a group of 50 grant-making charities say. They award grants totalling £70 million a year.

Churches such as St Michael-le-Belfrey, York, and St Mary Magdalene’s, Newark (News, 14 March, 4 April), where significant repair and restoration projects were already well advanced when the £25,000 cap on VAT exemption for repairs was announced in January, have been dismayed by the shortfalls in funding with which they are now confronted (News, 28 March).

Read it all.

Posted in Church of England, England / UK, Ethics / Moral Theology, Housing/Real Estate Market, Politics in General, Religion & Culture, Stewardship, Taxes

(Bloomberg) As Markets Sank and Soared, a New Fear About America Itself Spread Across Wall Street

Serious questions now exist around the wisdom of owning American assets that until recently were the envy of a risk-obsessed world.

Amid the manic moves, key trading patterns even bear soft echoes with emerging markets. All told, fear is spreading that Trump’s bid to rewrite the terms of global trade risks imperiling America’s privileged status in the financial system.

“You honestly feel like you’re seeing stuff wrong sometimes. You have to check the scaling on your graphs because prices are moving so quickly,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura Securities International Inc. “It’s just a constant stream of bells and popups on the desks right now. Automated messages like risk limits and risk alerts. It’s maximum overstimulation, maximum dopamine saturation.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Credit Markets, Currency Markets, Economy, Globalization, President Donald Trump, Psychology, Stock Market, The U.S. Government

(NYT Magazine) The Panic Industry Boom

Fortifying the American home has become big business, selling escape tunnels, secret arsenals and even flammable moats. 

Ron Hubbard, the chief executive of Atlas Survival Shelters, runs one of many companies that designs and builds bunkers for wealthy clients. His business is booming.

A 2023 survey found that about one-third of American adults were prepping for a doomsday scenario, spending a collective $11 billion over 12 months.

Read it all

Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Eschatology, Housing/Real Estate Market

(FA) Adam Posen-Trade Wars are Easy to Lose

In short, the U.S. economy will suffer enormously in a large-scale trade war with China, which the current levels of Trump-imposed tariffs, at more than 100 percent, surely constitute if left in place. In fact, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates. The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough, but it’s in fact putting the U.S. economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation.

The United States will face shortages of critical inputs ranging from basic ingredients of most pharmaceuticals to inexpensive semiconductors used in cars and home appliances to critical minerals for industrial processes including weapons production. The supply shock from drastically reducing or zeroing out imports from China, as Trump purports to want to achieve, would mean stagflation, the macroeconomic nightmare seen in the 1970s and during the COVID pandemic, when the economy shrank and inflation rose simultaneously. In such a situation, which may be closer at hand than many think, the Federal Reserve and fiscal policymakers are left with only terrible options and little chance of staving off unemployment except by further raising inflation.

When it comes to real war, if you have reason to be afraid of being invaded, it would be suicidal to provoke your adversary before you’ve armed yourself. That is essentially what Trump’s economic attack risks: given that the U.S. economy is entirely dependent on Chinese sources for vital goods (pharmaceutical stocks, cheap electronic chips, critical minerals), it is wildly reckless not to ensure alternate suppliers or adequate domestic production before cutting off trade. By doing it the other way around, the administration is inviting exactly the kind of damage it says it wants to prevent.

This could all be intended as just a negotiating tactic, Trump’s and Bessent’s repeated statements and actions notwithstanding. But even on those terms, the strategy will do more harm than good. As I warned in Foreign Affairs last October, the fundamental problem with Trump’s economic approach is that it would need to carry out enough self-harming threats to be credible, which means that markets and households would expect ongoing uncertainty. Americans and foreigners alike would invest less rather than more in the U.S. economy, and they would no longer trust the U.S. government to live up to any deal, making a negotiated settlement or agreement to deescalate difficult to achieve. As a result, U.S. productive capacity would decline rather than improve, which would only increase the leverage that China and others have over the United States.

The Trump administration is embarking on an economic equivalent of the Vietnam War—a war of choice that will soon result in a quagmire, undermining faith at home and abroad in both the trustworthiness and the competence of the United States—and we all know how that turned out.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, History, President Donald Trump

(WSJ) As Trump Squares Off With Iran, the Middle East Is on Edge about the possibility of another war

The Trump administration’s high-pressure campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war.

President Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but he has threatened that Iran is “going to be in great danger” if talks don’t go well.

The risk is if talks hit a logjam at a time when the U.S. has piled up military assets in the region and Iran remains vulnerable after Israel battered its air defenses and allies last year, the U.S. or Israel could decide to strike, potentially prompting retaliatory attacks across the Gulf.

In a letter sent to Iran’s supreme leader in March, Trump set a two-month time frame for negotiations to succeed, though it’s unclear if the period was to begin then or once talks get under way. 

Read it all.

Posted in Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, The Palestinian/Israeli Struggle, War in Gaza December 2008--

(Economist) Trump’s incoherent trade policy will do lasting damage

After the terror, the euphoria. When, on April 9th, President Donald Trump postponed for 90 days the most illogical and destructive of his tariffs, after a meltdown in financial markets, the s&p 500 index of American stocks rose by 9.5%, its fastest daily rise in nearly 17 years. The darkest scenarios for the world economy that had been envisaged by investors until that moment are now unlikely. It seems there is some limit to the market falls the president will tolerate on his watch. After the chaos that had followed Mr Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs a week earlier, that is no small source of comfort for the world.

But do not mistake the consolation of having avoided disaster for good fortune. The scale of the shock to global trade set off by Mr Trump is still, even now, unlike anything seen in history. He has replaced the stable trading relations which America spent over half a century building with whimsical and arbitrary policymaking, in which decisions are posted on social media and not even his advisers know what is coming next. And he is still in an extraordinary trade confrontation with China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

Investors and companies everywhere have been put through the wringer. Global markets crashed in response to Mr Trump’s first tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell by about 15%. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, as hedge funds were forced to unwind their leveraged positions. The dollar, which is supposed to be a safe haven, fell. After the tariffs were delayed, stockmarkets enjoyed a vertiginous climb. Between its low and high on the day, Nvidia’s value fluctuated by over $430bn.

Even after the tariff pause, however, Treasury yields remain elevated. Global stocks are 11% below their highs in February—and justifiably so

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(NYT) ‘Getting Heavier’: Climate Change Primes Storms to Drop More Rain

The severe storm system that has inundated the central and southeastern United States with heavy rain and high winds for days fits into a broader pattern in recent decades of increasing rainfall across the eastern half of the United States.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 1991 through 2020 show that the Eastern part of the country received more rain, on average, over those years than it did during the 20th century. At the same time, precipitation decreased across the West.

The sharp east-west divide is consistent with predictions from climate scientists, who expect wet places to get wetter, and dry areas to get drier, as the world warms.

While no individual storm can be tied to climate change without further analysis, warming air can result in heavier rainfall. That’s because warm air has the ability to hold more moisture than cooler air, fueling conditions for more average precipitation overall, and the potential for storms that come through to be more intense.

Read it all.

Posted in Climate Change, Weather, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, Science & Technology

(Telegraph) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard–If you think it’s alarming now, just wait for President Trump to wreck the bond market

If Trump succeeds in extracting rate cuts from the Fed and tax cuts from Congress, the same problem is going to arise. So my assumption is that he will blame the symptoms and will resort to price controls.

The elephantine difference is that US federal debt was 34pc of GDP in 1971. Today it is 122pc on the Fed measure, and galloping upwards. The fiscal deficit is over 6pc as far as the eye can see.

If you think the stock market gyrations of the last few days are terrifying, just wait until Trump destroys the credibility of the Fed and of US treasury debt, the anchor of the global system.

He could order a captive Fed to relaunch quantitative easing and buy the bonds, but to do that when inflation is running hot would be seen by the whole world as naked fiscal dominance. It would set off a price spiral and a collapse of the currency – the sort of outcome seen over the decades in Latin America, or Erdoğan’s Turkey.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Budget, Credit Markets, Economy, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(FP) Niall Ferguson–Niall Ferguson: Trump’s Tariffs and the End of American Empire

Trump has repeatedly promised to make the United States a “manufacturing powerhouse” to avoid being permanently overtaken by its Asian competitors. (In the 1980s it was Japan; now it’s China.) According to the president, friends even more than foes have been “taking our jobs, taking our wealth.” His solution is to impose tariffs on all U.S. trading partners.

There is certainly a constituency for the view that Americans were better off in the past than they are now, and that nineteenth-century policies are the way to go. Christian Whiton, for example, has argued that “reasonable tariffs, Jacksonian defense policy, and immigration control [will] set [the] stage for peace and prosperity after turbulence.”

In reality, however, applying policies that were appropriate more than a century ago, when the U.S. enjoyed all kinds of advantages as a location for manufacturing, will cause something worse than turbulence.

With his assault on “globalism,” Trump stands as much chance of success as a British prime minister who proposed to reassemble the empire, or a German chancellor who attempted to restore the Hohenzollerns to the throne. Time’s arrow does not fly backward.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Foreign Relations, History, Law & Legal Issues, President Donald Trump

(Church Times) Assisted-dying Bill ‘could create new tool to harm women’ faith leaders warn

The letter, published on the website of the think tank Theos on Sunday, is signed by 112 women, who include the Bishops of London, Gloucester, Stepney, Dover, Lancaster, Bristol, Croydon, and Aston. Among the other signatories are the director of Theos, Chine McDonald; the Assistant Secretary General, Muslim Council of Britain, Dr Naomi Green; the President of the Catholic Union of Great Britain, Baroness Hollins; and the chief executive of Jewish Women’s Aid, Sam Clifford.

The letter says that the Bill “has insufficient safeguards to protect some of the most marginalised in society, particularly women subjected to gender-based violence, and abuse by a partner, who also experience intersecting barriers to a full and safe life”.

It continues: “We are concerned that the proposed legislation could create a new tool to harm vulnerable women, particularly those being subjected to domestic abuse and coercive control, by helping them to end their lives.”

Read it all.

Posted in Anthropology, Death / Burial / Funerals, England / UK, Ethics / Moral Theology, Health & Medicine, Law & Legal Issues, Life Ethics, Pastoral Theology, Politics in General, Religion & Culture, Theology

(Gallup) In U.S., Inability to Pay for Care, Medicine Hits New High

 The percentage of U.S. adults who have recently been unable to afford or access quality healthcare has reached 11% — equivalent to nearly 29 million people — its highest level since 2021, according to new findings from the West Health-Gallup Healthcare Indices Study, which classifies these individuals as “Cost Desperate.”

The most notable increases since 2021 have occurred among Hispanic adults (up eight percentage points to 18%), Black adults (up five points to 14%,) and the lowest-income households, earning under $24,000 per year (up 11 points to 25%). Meanwhile, there has been no meaningful change in the proportion of White adults or middle- to high-income earners facing the same level of struggle. As a result, disparities in access to healthcare based on race, ethnicity and income are also at their highest point since surveying began.

Compared with 2021, the percentage of Americans aged 65 and above who are considered Cost Desperate has edged up just one point to 4% in 2024, while rates have risen by three points among those aged 50-64 (now 11%) and by four points among those younger than 50 (now 14%).

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Health & Medicine, Personal Finance

(Economist cover) President Trump’s mindless tariffs will cause economic havoc

If you failed to spot America being “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far” or it being cruelly denied a “turn to prosper”, then congratulations: you have a firmer grip on reality than the president of the United States. It’s hard to know which is more unsettling: that the leader of the free world could spout complete drivel about its most successful and admired economy. Or the fact that on April 2nd, spurred on by his delusions, Donald Trump announced the biggest break in America’s trade policy in over a century—and committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.

Speaking in the Rose Garden of the White House, the president announced new “reciprocal” tariffs on almost all America’s trading partners. There will be levies of 34% on China, 27% on India, 24% on Japan and 20% on the European Union. Many small economies face swingeing rates; all targets face a tariff of at least 10%. Including existing duties, the total levy on China will now be 65%. Canada and Mexico were spared additional tariffs, and the new levies will not be added to industry-specific measures, such as a 25% tariff on cars, or a promised tariff on semiconductors. But America’s overall tariff rate will soar above its Depression-era level back to the 19th century.

Mr Trump called it one of the most important days in American history. He is almost right. His “Liberation Day” heralds America’s total abandonment of the world trading order and embrace of protectionism. 

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(NYT) A NATO Plane’s Busy Duty: Tracking (and Dodging) Russia in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea, with a coastline heavily militarized by Northern European and Russian navies, has become an increasingly tense theater in the conflict between Moscow and the West.

Three times over the past year and a half, commercial ships are suspected of having damaged critical undersea communications cables and a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. European officials fear that these were acts of sabotage, with the Kremlin viewed as the primary suspect, though finding hard evidence has proved difficult. In response, NATO announced in January the start of a new program called Baltic Sentry, boosting sea and air patrols of the Baltic Sea.

Though mostly reliant on NATO members with Baltic coastlines, like Sweden, Finland and Poland, the French and the British also participate, along with U.S. Marines deployed to Finland.

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Posted in Europe, Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Russia

(FT) China launches large-scale military exercises around Taiwan

China has kicked off large-scale military and coastguard exercises around Taiwan, the latest round in Beijing’s escalating campaign to assert its claims of sovereignty and suppress the island nation’s efforts to preserve its de facto independence.

The drills on Tuesday came as Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te seeks to improve military and civilian preparedness for a potential Chinese attack and strengthen society to defend against espionage and other infiltration from China, which last month he called a “hostile foreign force”.

The People’s Liberation Army said naval, air, ground and missile forces were practising “seizing comprehensive control, strikes on sea and land targets and blockade operations”.

The China Coast Guard also announced simultaneous “law enforcement patrols” which it said would exercise inspecting, intercepting and detaining “unwarranted vessels”. The PLA sends aircraft and ships into the airspace and waters close to Taiwan almost daily, and routinely holds what it calls combat readiness patrols.

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Posted in China, Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Taiwan

(NY Post) Welcome to the age of Kidults? Grown-ups are buying more toys than preschoolers — to the tune of $1 billion

Bob Friedland’s home in Little Falls, NJ, is filled with Lego. Lego flowers adorn his dining room table. A Lego reproduction of Van Gogh’s “Starry Night” hangs in his office. He has 10 Lego city skylines scattered throughout his abode (one for every town he’s visited). On Halloween, he strings lights on his Lego “Nightmare Before Christmas” set and displays it at the bay window at the front of his house. 

“I had to move out of my condo and into a house to find a place to put them all,” Friedland, 50, told The Post.

Friedland has worked in the toy industry as a marketer for decades, but he only began seriously playing with Lego in 2020. 

Like many adults stuck at home during the Coronavirus pandemic that spring, Friedland found himself alone and anxious. He remembered how playing with the snappable plastic building blocks had brought him joy as a child. So he bought a 1,000-piece Lego “Voltron” set — based on the 1980s cartoon. And then bought another, and another. He’s completed at least 50 sets since, re-creating everything from a bonsai plant to the set of Jerry’s apartment on “Seinfeld.”

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Children, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, History

The Violence in Nigeria is religiously motivated, says the Roman Catholic Bishop of Makurdi

The forced displacement and killing of Christians in Nigeria is not the product of climate change, or clashes between farmers and herders, but religiously motivated persecution, a bishop there said this week.

The RC Bishop of Makurdi, Dr Wilfred Anagbe, whose diocese is in the Middle Belt state of Benue, said on Tuesday that the international community needed to acquire a “clear narrative of what is going on. Previously it has been said it was based on climate change and farmers and herders clashing. . . That is not the reason.”

He spoke of a “clear, orchestrated agenda or plan of Islam to take over the territories” of people who were “predominantly Christian”. In some parts of Nigeria, villages were being given new Islamic names. “It is about the conquest and occupation of the land.”

Climate change was occurring in other countries, without simultaneous forced displacement, he said. Benue State was 99 per cent Christian; its economy was not based on rearing cattle.

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Posted in Africa, Church of England, Death / Burial / Funerals, England / UK, Nigeria, Religion & Culture, Terrorism, Violence