Key Judgment 1: Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Debate will center on who bears more responsibility to act and to pay—and how quickly—and countries will compete to control resources and dominate new technologies needed for the clean energy transition. Most countries will face difficult economic choices and probably will count on technological breakthroughs to rapidly reduce their net emissions later. China and India will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of temperature rise.

Key Judgment 2: The increasing physical effects of climate change are likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flash-points as states take steps to secure their interests. The reduction in sea ice already is amplifying strategic competition in the Arctic over access to its natural resources. Elsewhere, as temperatures rise and more extreme effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over water and migration, particularly after 2030, and an increasing chance that countries will unilaterally test and deploy large-scale solar geo-engineering—creating a new area of disputes.

Key Judgment 3: Scientific forecasts indicate that intensifying physical effects of climate change out to 2040 and beyond will be most acutely felt in developing countries, which we assess are also the least able to adapt to such changes. These physical effects will increase the potential for instability and possibly internal conflict in these countries, in some cases creating additional demands on US diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and military resources. Despite geographic and financial resource advantages, the United States and partners face costly challenges that will become more difficult to manage without concerted effort to reduce emissions and cap warming.

Read it all.

The National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change looks at the impact of climate on national security through to 2040. The report paints a picture of a world failing to co-operate, leading to dangerous competition and instability. #ilmastonmuutos https://t.co/whF0kT6oxq

— Mikko Räkköläinen (@MRakkol) October 22, 2021

What is the biggest technological shift we’ll see in the future?

It’s definitely going to be artificial intelligence. I don’t think AI will overtake humans in the short term, but it will have a profound impact on society. Recently, I stayed at a hotel near Beijing, and I didn’t encounter a single human worker during my stay. From checking in to ordering takeout, there wasn’t a single human interaction, everything was done on apps and with AI-powered bots.

This is more and more common in China. I used to think that AI would displace simple and repetitive jobs, but now I think the opposite: It will replace more “senior” positions like doctors, lawyers, teachers and stock analysts. On the other hand, it’s the jobs that are more labor intensive that will be harder to replace. I renovated my house recently, and needed an electrician to rewire the entire living room. I really can’t see a situation where AI can replace that kind of a job in the short term.

But AI’s effect on people will be sweeping, and an issue we will have to grapple with in the very near future. We’re past the agricultural and industrial age and firmly stepped into the era of AI.

Read it all.

We are thrilled that #TheThreeBodyProblem author @liu_cixin joined @WSJ to talk about how his visions of the future collide with reality. Check out the full article here.https://t.co/hu8c9jNgxC

— Tor Books (@torbooks) October 14, 2021

“COP26 will bring leaders together from all around the world: my prayer is that this will be a microcosm of the leadership through partnership that is so urgently needed if we want to make real progress towards our climate goals.

“Climate change is an issue of justice and responsibility – we will need to persuade people to make harder choices that focus not just on financial return but social good, generating mutually beneficial results for people and planet.

“We need genuine agreement churches, business, communities and governments all need to work together against the common enemy of climate change and environmental and biodiversity degradation.

Read it all.

Like toy blocks hurled from the heavens, nearly 80,000 shipping containers are stacked in various configurations at the Port of Savannah — 50 percent more than usual.

The steel boxes are waiting for ships to carry them to their final destination, or for trucks to haul them to warehouses that are themselves stuffed to the rafters. Some 700 containers have been left at the port, on the banks of the Savannah River, by their owners for a month or more.

“They’re not coming to get their freight,” complained Griff Lynch, the executive director of the Georgia Ports Authority. “We’ve never had the yard as full as this.”

As he speaks, another vessel glides silently toward an open berth — the 1,207-foot-long Yang Ming Witness, its decks jammed with containers full of clothing, shoes, electronics and other stuff made in factories in Asia. Towering cranes soon pluck the thousands of boxes off the ship — more cargo that must be stashed somewhere.

Read it all.

It has come to this in the Great Supply Chain Disruption: they are running out of places to stash things at one of the largest ports in the United States. My story from Savannah with magnificent photos from ⁦@erinschaff⁩ https://t.co/8jVdNQB3zM

— Peter S. Goodman (@petersgoodman) October 10, 2021

Based on years of experience as a pastor in the Christian Reformed Church, Wayne Ten Harmsel presents a fascinating study of The Registered Church in China: Flourishing in a Challenging Environment (Pickwick). As conditions for Christians become harsher in that country and official pressures toward Sinicization become more aggressive, the word challenging sounds ever more like a euphemism.

The greatest contribution of Ten Harmsel’s crisp and sympathetic study is to give readers a sense of the ordinary realities of lived faith in those churches. Outsiders might be tempted to dismiss the church leaders and members as compromisers, or even sellouts, but they are nothing of the sort. Much like the “border” people Hanciles describes, these people are struggling constantly to balance two competing identities: that of a loyal Chinese citizen, subject to the control of a one-party state, and that of a Christian who has no earthly commonwealth. These believers walk a delicate path as they try to live Christian lives without compromising their faith.

Let me conclude with an introduction. Over the past quarter century, plenty of authors have offered broad surveys of the rapidly changing state of global Christianity, and some have been impressive. One new work that really stands out for its scope and accessibility is World Christianity and the Unfinished Task: A Very Short Introduction (Cascade) by F. Lionel Young III. This book does an excellent job of compression, while at the same time succeeding fully in sketching recent trends and identifying pressing issues. Part of that success lies in Young’s ability to incorporate personal observations and stories, and so effectively.

Read it all.

Most countries are ill-equipped to handle what the United Nations said Tuesday is a “looming” global water crisis caused by climate change and population growth.

Floods, droughts and other water-related disasters are on the rise due to global warming, the World Meteorological Organization said in a new report published Tuesday.

At the same time, swelling populations and dwindling resources around the globe have led to increased water scarcity in multiple regions, the U.N. agency said.

“But management, monitoring, forecasting and early warnings are fragmented and inadequate,” said the report, which included input from more than 20 global development agencies and scientific institutions.

“We need to wake up to the looming water crisis,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.

Read it all.

Currently, more than 2 billion people live in "water-stressed countries” where they lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation, according to the report “The State of Climate Services 2021: Water.”https://t.co/OBX1CPQuKx

— Winthrop Rodgers (@wrodgers2) October 6, 2021

But dollar stores are not as well equipped for the surreal economy of today, when workers like Ms. Beadling are quitting in protest and a single coronavirus case on a container ship can cause a two-month delay in getting Chinese-made merchandise to the United States.

“This is another case of the pandemic laying bare the underlying vulnerabilities in how we’ve set up our economy,” said Stacy Mitchell, co-director of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, an advocacy group that is critical of many large corporate retailers.

While just about every retailer is dealing with shipping and distribution problems, the dollar stores may have difficulty passing on the increased costs to price-sensitive customers.

Dollar Tree said it expected as much as $200 million in additional freight costs this year.

Read it all.

"Workers say the stores are chronically understaffed and rely on part-time workers who are given unpredictable schedules and cannot afford the required employee contribution for health care benefits."https://t.co/m6fiJihMKl

— R Givan (@rkgwork) October 1, 2021

Almighty Saviour, who didst call thy servant Saint Paul to be an apostle to the Gentiles: We beseech thee to illumine the world with the radiance of the gospel of thy grace committed to his trust, that all nations may worship thee and acknowledge thee to be the Lord; who art with the Father and the Holy Spirit one God, world without end.

📷📍 Acadia National Park, submitted by Kenn Chandler into our #DownEastReaderPhotoContest. Submit your own Maine photos and vote for your favorites at https://t.co/FYsDGN5RSK.

Special thanks to the @NRCMenvironment for sponsoring this year's contest. pic.twitter.com/ftoaRoHEX4

— Down East Magazine (@MagazineofMaine) September 30, 2021

A “deep-seated dissatisfaction” with online worship during the Covid-19 pandemic has been identified by new research published this week.

The key finding of the report British Ritual Innovation under Covid-19, the result of a year-long joint project by the University of Chester and Manchester Metropolitan University, is that, “by almost every metric, the experience of pandemic rituals have been worse than those that came before them. They are perceived as less meaningful, less communal, less spiritual, less effective, and so on.”

The report, published on Wednesday, concludes: “Our research has revealed both considerable innovation in, and deep-seated dissatisfaction with, digital worship during the pandemic. There have been important positive developments and adaptations which will strengthen British religious life in the long term, but for most people, the move to online ritual has been one of loss, not gain.

“Rituals — regular weekly worship, funerals, baptisms, festival celebrations, and the like — have been exceptionally difficult for most participants and leaders during the pandemic.”

Read it all.

“Our research has revealed both considerable innovation in, and deep-seated dissatisfaction with, digital worship during the pandemic." https://t.co/LC0ecTK6PY

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) September 29, 2021

Children born in high-income countries will experience twice as many extreme climate events as their grandparents, new research suggests.

But for children in low-income countries, it will be worse. They will see three times as many, say researchers at the University of Brussels.

Watch it all (a little over 4 1/2 minutes).

How climate change is making inequality worse, especially for children

Children born in high-income countries will experience twice as many extreme climate events as their grandparents
But children in low-income countries will see three times as many https://t.co/uEi0zyy3is

— Svein T veitdal (@tveitdal) September 27, 2021

The Bishops of the Church of England are backing calls for the leaders of the world’s richest countries to halt the “hoarding” of COVID-19 vaccines while billions of people around the world have yet to be jabbed.

Members of the College of Bishops, which is meeting in Oxford, voted unanimously to endorse a statement by two Anglican Communion bodies which demands an emergency meeting of the G7 to commit to vaccine equity.

It warns that potentially millions of vaccines stockpiled by wealthy countries could go to waste after passing their effective “use by” date rather than be shared with those in urgent need.

Earlier this year G7 leaders meeting in Cornwall promised to donate more than one billion doses of vaccine but it is estimated that less than 15 per cent of these have so far materialised.

Read it all.

Bishops join calls for emergency G7 meeting to tackle vaccine ‘hoarding’ | The Church of England https://t.co/Zbf2EN5ZBG

— Church of England in Parliament (@churchstate) September 21, 2021

Soaring property prices are forcing people all over the world to abandon all hope of owning a home. The fallout is shaking governments of all political persuasions.

It’s a phenomenon given wings by the pandemic. And it’s not just buyers — rents are also soaring in many cities. The upshot is the perennial issue of housing costs has become one of acute housing inequality, and an entire generation is at risk of being left behind.

“We’re witnessing sections of society being shut out of parts of our city because they can no longer afford apartments,” Berlin Mayor Michael Mueller says. “That’s the case in London, in Paris, in Rome, and now unfortunately increasingly in Berlin.”

Read it all.

Around the world, an entire generation is being locked out of home ownership – and governments don't know how to fix it

Read The Big Take ⬇️ https://t.co/ZcdoCSGTWu

— Bloomberg (@business) September 20, 2021

The UN released a report on Thursday warning that the COVID-19 pandemic has not slowed the pace of climate change.

Virus-related economic slowdown and lockdowns caused only a temporary downturn in CO2 emissions last year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

“There was some thinking that the COVID lockdowns would have had a positive impact on the atmosphere, which is not the case,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said at a news briefing.

The United in Science 2021 report, which gathers the latest scientific data and findings related to climate change, said global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions between January and July in the power and industry sectors were already back to the same level or higher than in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic.

Read it all.

UN: Pandemic did not slow advance of climate change.

So it seems there has been no silver lining to that particular cloud.https://t.co/RJwgt7emAK

— Michael de Podesta (@Protons4B) September 16, 2021

“The end process is not going to be uniform,” Charters said. The pandemic “is a biological phenomenon, but it’s also a political and social phenomenon.”

“Even now we have different approaches to it.”

It’s likely to be messy, leaving a lasting legacy for years to come. Until then, most of us will need to brace for many more months in the pandemic’s grip.

“We have to approach it with our eyes wide open and with a great deal of humility,”…[Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis,] said. “Anybody that thinks we’re going to be over this in the next few days or a few months is sorely mistaken.”

Read it all.

“Without vaccination, one is like a sitting duck, because the virus will spread widely and find most everybody this autumn and winter…” https://t.co/bqz5ysJiTZ

— Jeffrey Duchin, MD (@DocJeffD) September 13, 2021

The world is underestimating the geological consequences of global warming, which could trigger catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis as the melting of ice sheets reduces the weight on the crust below and unleashes intense seismic activity, a leading earth scientist has warned.

The biggest threat in the north Atlantic comes from the thinning of Greenland’s ice cap, Bill McGuire, professor of earth sciences at University College London, told the British Science Festival in the UK town of Chelmsford on Thursday. Within decades, that could spark huge submarine earthquakes off the coast of Greenland, causing tsunamis with disastrous consequences for North America and probably Europe, he said.

A possible precedent was the “great Storegga tsunami” that devastated the coasts of Scandinavia and the British Isles 8,200 years ago. An offshore earthquake, triggered by the release of pressure after northern Europe’s ice sheets had melted, set off a vast landslide of submarine sediments under the Norwegian Sea. Geological evidence shows the resulting tsunami wave reached 15 to 20 metres high in the Shetland islands and 3 to 6 metres high further down the North Sea.

“As the Greenland ice cap melts, the uplift in the crust is going to trigger earthquakes,” said McGuire. “We don’t know enough about the sediments off the Greenland coast to predict confidently what might happen there, but it is certainly possible that within decades there could be a tsunami right across the north Atlantic.”

Read it all.

#ClimateChange risks triggering catastrophic tsunamis

“When global temperatures may be rising at the fastest rate in the history of our planet, I’m proud to be raising the alarm. Almost every climate change forecast so far has been an underestimate.”https://t.co/3QXsqYq5rE

— Peter Strachan (@ProfStrachan) September 9, 2021

Identity wars and conflicts based on differences in ethnicity, culture, language or religion are, once ignited, the most powerful forces in human affairs. And these forces persist in nations of all levels of development. Having witnessed Brexit and heard calls for Catalan independence, we shouldn’t be surprised that African peoples also want to exit distant and dysfunctional multi-ethnic unions to control their own affairs.

Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon are ripping themselves apart across ethnic or confessional divides. Separatist movements among the Arab, Kurdish, Azeri and Balochi minorities haunt the slumbers of Iranian mullahs. From the western Balkans through Turkey and the Caucasus to the “stans” of Central Asia, ethnic and religious divides are worrying governments and challenging the status quo.

The revisionist nationalism of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, India’s turn toward Hindu nationalism, and China’s increasingly xenophobic Han nationalism show that identity politics is returning to center stage even in large states. The eurocrats of Brussels are also struggling to contain populist nationalist opposition to European Union edicts. Many Americans wonder whether a common U.S. identity is strong enough to contain the forces that threaten to splinter the country permanently into hostile racial, religious and ideological camps.

Alongside the return of great power competition, the eruption of identity politics is the single most consequential political feature of our time. This fateful combination does not bode well.

Read it all.

"Preoccupied by pandemic,climate change&intensifying rivalry U.S.&China,policy makers&pundits aren’t paying enough attention to news in Africa..What's happening offers insights into destructive role identity politics seems destined play in world politics."https://t.co/LiKU8oPHib

— Fredric U. Dicker (@fud31) September 7, 2021

The already bonkers dollars of Big Tech have become even bonkers-er.

My colleagues and I have written a lot about the unreal sales, profits and oomph of America’s five technology titans — Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Facebook. This might feel like old news. Tech’s Titanic 5 have been big and rich for a long time, and they’ve gotten even more so as people and organizations have needed their products during the coronavirus pandemic. Yadda, yadda, yadda. We get it.

But no, we really don’t get it. American’s technology superstars have launched into a completely different stratosphere than even other wildly successful companies in tech and beyond.

Read it all.

"The already bonkers dollars of Big Tech have become even bonkers-er," writes @shiraovide in On Tech. https://t.co/l6suFCsMJr

— NYT Business (@nytimesbusiness) July 30, 2021

Alan Smith, Senior Advisor – ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) Risk and Inclusion, and former Global Head of Risk Strategy at HSBC, is to be the next First Church Estates Commissioner, Downing Street announced today. Alan has also been a Church Commissioner since 2018.
The First Church Estates Commissioner chairs the Church Commissioners’ Assets Committee, a statutory committee responsible for the strategic management of the Church Commissioners’ £9.2 billion investment portfolio.

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, Chair of the Commissioners’ Board of Governors, said: “I am delighted that Alan has chosen to use his skills and experience to serve the Church and greatly look forward to working with him. Climate change is the most urgent challenge we face, and Alan’s knowledge of environmental issues and risk management will be critically important for the Commissioners’ work. I’d also like to thank Loretta Minghella for her hard work and leadership during her time at the Church Commissioners.”

The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell, said: “We are pleased that Alan will succeed Loretta. Alan’s experience as a Commissioner and his role on the Commissioners’ Audit & Risk Committee means he’s extremely well suited for this leadership role.”

Read it all.

The Church Commissioners are delighted to announce Alan Smith as next First Church Estates Commissioner.

Read more on our website 👇https://t.co/VykZFgy9QV

— The Church of England (@churchofengland) July 27, 2021