Most years, presidents don’t have much impact on the economy; it is just too big and complicated.

This year won’t be like most years. President Trump is taking unprecedented steps to run the economy hot, and there is an excellent chance he’ll succeed.

Washington has three big levers that affect growth: fiscal policy (taxes and spending), monetary policy (interest rates) and credit policy (the ease of borrowing). Historically, they were not coordinated: Fiscal policy followed the congressional cycle, monetary policy was set by an independent Federal Reserve and credit policy reflected often random decisions by regulators.

This year, all three are dialed toward stimulus, reflecting a single-minded focus by Trump and congressional Republicans on faster economic growth. They hope that will deliver victory in the November midterm elections.

In the process, they are compromising other goals: taming debt, Fed independence and long-term financial stability. The consequences of that come later.

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Under my taxonomy, there are 3 macro policy levers: fiscal, monetary and credit. This year, Trump has dialed all 3 towards stimulus in order to run the economy hot. This is unprecedented, and will probably work. The costs come later. https://t.co/7RTaSK2I5D

— Greg Ip (@greg_ip) January 14, 2026

False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation. The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures.

FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.

The Washington Post reported on December 22 that a Russian official stated that a banking or non-payments crisis in Russia is possible and that they do not “want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.” A Russian academic source close to senior Kremlin diplomats told the Washington Post that 2026 will be the “first difficult year” since the start of the full scale invasion but assessed that growing economic problems will not lead to social or political problems.

Read it all.

Western officials believe Putin is pressing on with his war in Ukraine partly because of flawed information he gets about the battlefield, @NastyaStognei and I write.

The rosy picture from his generals has led him to believe Russia can win outright:https://t.co/DzVErrPFXM

— max seddon (@maxseddon) December 22, 2025

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

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3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliatehttps://t.co/HfAjRZka0C

— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) December 14, 2025

Chinese intelligence is continuing a massive hack of US telecom networks in a cyber campaign that allows it to access the communications of almost every American, according to a top Democratic senator. Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee who recently got a briefing on the extensive cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon”, said China was still infiltrating the US system.

“I believe they are still inside [our networks],” Warner told a Defense Writers Group event. Warner said he received a “really frustrating” government briefing with conflicting accounts about the Trump administration’s response to Salt Typhoon. According to the senator, the FBI said US networks were “pretty clean” despite contradictory evidence from several intelligence agencies.

“Other parts of our community are saying, ‘Hell no, it’s still going on’,” said Warner, who added that he had eight documents from agencies raising concerns about Salt Typhoon which has been ongoing for at least two years. “It is baffling to me that this is not a bigger issue,” said Warner, who lamented that it might take some kind of “catastrophic event” before the US government became more serious about tackling Salt Typhoon.

Read it all.

US has failed to stop massive Chinese cyber campaign, warns senator https://t.co/XvpxOYEqVp

— Financial Times (@FT) December 12, 2025

More than a thousand people gathered at Bondi Beach in Sydney on December 14th, the first night of Hannukah, to watch the lighting of a menorah. Children wearing face paint crowded a petting zoo. Families held balloons and bubble wands. Yet as the sun began to dip, two men dressed in black and wielding long-barrelled firearms shot into the crowd from positions just outside the beach-side park where the event was taking place. They murdered at least 15 people and injured dozens more, including two police officers.

Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, confirmed the massacre was a “targeted attack on Jewish Australians”. He labelled the attack “a terrorist incident”; that designation gives authorities additional powers to question and detain suspects. The dead include Eli Schlanger, a prominent local rabbi and the organiser of the event.

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MORE THAN a thousand people gathered at Bondi Beach in Sydney on December 14th, the first night of Hannukah, to watch the lighting of a menorah. Children wearing face paint crowded a petting zoo. Families held balloons and bubble wands. Yet as the sun began to dip, two men dressed in black and wielding long-barrelled firearms shot into the crowd from positions just outside the beach-side park where the event was taking place. They murdered at least 15 people and injured dozens more, including two police officers.

Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, confirmed the massacre was a “targeted attack on Jewish Australians”. He labelled the attack “a terrorist incident”; that designation gives authorities additional powers to question and detain suspects. The dead include Eli Schlanger, a prominent local rabbi and the organiser of the event.

The attack is one of the worst shootings in modern Australian history, even if the final toll will take some days to come clear. And but for the immense courage of bystanders, it might have been even more lethal. One video shows a man in a white T-shirt creeping up on one of the gunmen from behind a car, then wrestling the attacker’s rifle away from him. “That man is a genuine hero,” said Chris Minns, the premier of New South Wales. “I’ve got no doubt that there are many, many people alive tonight as a result of his bravery.”

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The attack is one of the worst shootings in modern Australian history, even if the final toll will take some days to come clear. And but for the immense courage of bystanders, it might have been even more lethal https://t.co/3PxXmMvLYN

Photo: AFP via Getty Images pic.twitter.com/OpyEkjiKcn

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 14, 2025

As the United States leans on solar power to meet soaring energy needs, its reliance on a Chinese-made component has created a mounting security threat, according to energy industry executives and congressional investigators who warn it can be weaponized to trigger blackouts.

Research shared exclusively with The Washington Post reveals how deeply dependent U.S. power companies are on Chinese inverters. These devices are used by large solar installations to help transform energy harnessed from the sun into a current that is compatible with the power grid.

More than 85 percent of the utilities surveyed confidentially by the research group Strider Technologies are using inverter devices made by companies with ties to the Chinese government and military. Many cybersecurity experts warn that the devicesare vulnerable to hacking that can set off cascading outages.

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NEW: This one gadget could give China a back door into the U.S. power grid. Inverters are used to convert solar into electric power. Industry execs and congressional investigators warn they can be weaponized.

@evanhalper and me. https://t.co/hP9RFxmvaL

— Ellen Nakashima (@nakashimae) December 10, 2025

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

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A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo have shown the constraints of President Trump’s high-speed pursuit of peace https://t.co/k8gpJmlUyI

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 11, 2025

The arid steppes of northeastern Syria stretch almost uninterrupted to the Iraqi border, the emptiness broken only by the occasional oil derrick, until the road comes to a sprawling prison camp.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire surrounds the vast compound, and supply trucks line the route for more than half a mile outside the camp’s gates. This is Al Hol detention camp, where most detainees are family members — wives, sisters, children — of fighters for the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS. More than 8,000 fighters themselves are in prisons nearby.

For years, ISIS ruled large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq, brutally enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. As Kurdish-led Syrian forces backed by the United States battled to reclaim that land, they detained thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their relatives.

U.S. forces entrusted their Syrian Kurdish allies with guarding the ISIS detainees and families. But now, the Pentagon is drawing down its troops in Syria, and there are indications that U.S. officials want Syria’s new government to take responsibility for the prisons and detention camps.

Read it all.

Islamic State Camps Pose a Dangerous Problem for Syria’s Leaders

The government faces a dilemma over what to do with civil-war-era prisons and detention camps that hold thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their family members.https://t.co/T2y5KLVeaN

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) December 10, 2025

Japan is sailing dangerously close to the wind. The most indebted state in the world is taunting markets with one of the least justifiable plans for extra debt issuance.

The fiscal irresponsibility is perhaps no worse than in America, France or Labour’s welfare Britain, but right now it is Japan that is in the sights of the bond vigilantes.

Yields on Japanese debt have spiked wildly across the maturity curve since Sanae Takaichi took power six weeks ago and shocked investors with a “low quality” fiscal expansion of $135bn (£101bn), including such gems as rice vouchers and subsidies for fossil fuels – ploys to mask the inflationary consequences of her own policies.

The scale of this populist misadventure is sending tremors through the international financial system, as well as horrifying the economic establishment in Tokyo.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped to 1.94pc in intraday trading in Tokyo, up from 1.79pc a week ago and a whisker shy of highs last seen in 1997. The speed of the move in the once-glacial $12tn market for Japanese public and private debt is almost frightening.

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Japan’s false Thatcher is blowing up a $12tn bond market https://t.co/gLGSs085PM

— B2Investor (@B2Investor) December 5, 2025

The retiring Bishop of Leeds, the Rt Revd Nick Baines, has used his valedictory speech in the House of Lords to draw attention to the humanitarian situation in Sudan, which was, he said, “so dire that ‘urgent’ does not do justice to the need for action”.

During a debate on the topic last week, Bishop Baines, who has been one of the Lords Spiritual since 2014, described Sudan as “a country I love, where I have friends, and which I have visited a number of times”.

Its “suffering”, he said, was “almost unbearable, the worst humanitarian catastrophe on the planet. . . Whatever the causes of and motivations behind the current conflict, it is civilians — women, children, young men, and vulnerable ethnic groups — who are being targeted and abused in the most inhumane ways.”

He offered some scale of the conflict. “It is estimated that up to 150,000 people have died, and 13 million have been displaced, 9.6 million internally and 4.3 million in exile. Some 25 to 30 million people are hungry, malnourished, or severely malnourished. Save the Children estimates that 16 million children are in need of aid. . . Access to aid is frequently blocked, and funding is inadequate to the need.”

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The retiring Bishop of Leeds, the Rt Revd Nick Baines, has used his valedictory speech in the #HouseofLords to draw attention to the humanitarian situation in #Sudan, which was, he said, “so dire that ‘urgent’ does not do justice to the need for action”… https://t.co/IHsY5yMW33

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) December 3, 2025

In September, a wave of 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. The Gerbera-type drones cost as little as $10,000—so cheap that they are often used as decoys to misdirect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. NATO countered with a half-billion-dollar response force of F-35s, F-16s, AWACS radar planes, and helicopters, which shot down four of the drones with $1.6-million AMRAAM missiles.

This is a bargain compared to how challenging U.S. forces have found it to defend against Houthi forces using this same cheap tech. Our naval forces have fired a reported 120 SM-2, 80 SM-6, and 20 SM-3 missiles, costing about $2.1 million, $3.9 million, and over $9.6 million each. And this is to defend against a group operating out of the 187th-largest economy in the world, able to fire mere hundreds of drones and missiles. Our supposed pacing challenge, China, has an economy that will soon be the largest in the world and a combined national industrial and military acquisition plan to be able to fire munitions by the millions.

Even in America’s best-laid plans for future battlefields, there is a harsh reality that is too often ignored. The math of current battlefields remains literally orders of magnitude beyond what our budget plans to spend, our industry plans to build, our acquisitions system is able to contract, and thus what our military will deploy.

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"When you spend orders of magnitude more than your foe, you are in what is known as a “losing equation.” https://t.co/hUVfR4sw66 pic.twitter.com/OW3w9kuGhM

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) December 3, 2025

Europe is breathing a sigh of relief. On December 2nd Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. Many had been expecting Team Trump to sell out Ukrainian sovereignty in return for commercial deals. The risk of such an odious stitch-up now seems to have receded a bit. Thanks to pressure from European leaders and some sensible Republicans, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, some of the worst elements of a 28-point plan hatched by Mr Witkoff and his Kremlin chum, Kirill Dmitriev, have quietly been dropped. Mr Putin seems unenthusiastic about the current version. Mr Trump now says the whole thing is “a mess”. Diplomacy, like the war, will grind on.

But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong. First, another bad pseudo-peace plan could pop up. Second, even if it doesn’t, Ukraine will need solid military and financial support for the foreseeable future, and it will have to come from Europe. It is still not clear that Europeans grasp this.

When Mr Putin first launched his full-scale, unprovoked invasion, Europe did the right thing. The EU and others imposed stiff sanctions on Russia and gave military and financial aid to Ukraine, roughly matching the level of support from America. But that united front depended on the White House agreeing that territorial aggression should not be rewarded. Mr Trump has blown that consensus apart. Now, the $90bn-100bn it costs each year to support Ukraine’s war effort, a burden previously divided evenly, must be shouldered by Europe alone. The maths is brutal, as we analysed earlier this year. Until a durable peace arrives, Europe must keep paying what it did before—and then find an extra $50bn a year.

Russia may be advancing on the battlefield, but only slowly and at a huge cost in men and money…

Read it all.

On Tuesday Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong https://t.co/LrJSfsETpF

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 3, 2025

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

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Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Washington’s latest peace efforts have jolted the trans-Atlantic alliance https://t.co/C3FLsf5mXm via @WSJ

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) December 2, 2025

Bishops and charities, praising the removal of the two-child benefit cap, say that it will lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty. The change was announced in the Autumn Budget by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, on Wednesday afternoon.

The former Prime Minister Gordon Brown congratulated faith leaders who had long called for the policy, which had been introduced by the Conservative Chancellor George Osborne shortly after the 2015 General Election, to be scrapped.

“From April, nearly half a million children will be lifted out of poverty, thanks to their campaign, for which I thank all religious leaders,” he told the Church Times.

The Church of England’s lead bishop for child-poverty issues, the Bishop of Leicester, the Rt Revd Martyn Snow, said that the decision would “make a profoundly positive difference to hundreds of thousands of children and their families.

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Bishops and charities celebrate Chancellor’s removal of the two-child benefit caphttps://t.co/vAqwlYmJVb

— Madeleine Davies (@MadsDavies) November 26, 2025

Washington, D.C.
October 3, 1863

By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

William H. Seward,
Secretary of State

Happy Thanksgiving! #DYK the White House’s holiday celebration dates back to President Abraham Lincoln?

In October 1863, Lincoln declared the last Thursday of November to be celebrated as a holiday.

His #Thanksgiving proclamation implored the nation to reflect and heal in the… pic.twitter.com/Dxbs1oGnTq

— White House History (@WhiteHouseHstry) November 27, 2025

[New York, 3 October 1789]

By the President of the United States of America. a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor — and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquillity, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted — for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions — to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually — to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed — to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord — To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and us — and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

Go: Washington

The FBI wishes you and your family a Happy #Thanksgiving. pic.twitter.com/Z4QEIbsSFT

— FBI (@FBI) November 27, 2025

The Chancellor has been urged to retain a tax scheme for listed places of worship, as a survey was published today showing the majority of the UK population backs Government support to help churches pay for repairs to their buildings.

A poll shows that two in five people, or 43 per cent of all adults, report having had contact with their local church, the majority of these, or 53 per cent, for services and worship but also 23 per cent – nearly seven million people in the UK – for community support such as parent toddler groups, lunch clubs and food banks. An estimated 2.8 million people – or 4 per cent of the UK population – have been in contact with their local church for a food bank. Church of England churches run or support 31,300 social action projects, including nearly 8,000 food banks, with emergency food provision and community cafés on the rise.

More than three quarters of the population – 77 per cent – said historic cathedrals and churches are local and national treasures. And two in five – 41% – said they had visited a church or cathedral simply to find a quiet space for reflection or prayer, with this figure rising to 50 per cent amongst young adults in the 18 to 34 age range.

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Government urged to keep VAT grants for church repairs, amid survey showing millions in touch with their local churches. CofE news: https://t.co/nOJDKcPENE

— Church of England in Parliament (@churchstate) November 23, 2025

The Trump administration is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession as it raises pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, hoping to ensure that the central bank will bear the blame for any economic weakness.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran, President Trump’s appointee to the Fed’s Board of Governors who is on a temporary leave from his job leading the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, this week struck a downbeat tone about the health of the world’s largest economy. Mr. Bessent went so far as to say some sectors were already contracting. He did not specify which sectors, but high mortgage rates have put housing and adjacent industries such as construction under pressure.

“I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession,” Mr. Bessent said on CNN on Sunday. He described the economy as being in a “period of transition” because of a pullback in government spending to reduce the deficit. He called on the Fed to support the economy by cutting interest rates.

Mr. Bessent’s remarks added to pressure on the Fed and deflected blame from Mr. Trump in case the economy does ultimately face a downturn, reinforcing a strategy that has been in place since the start of the year. As the administration has imposed aggressive tariffs on nearly all of America’s trading partners and slashed federal spending, potentially slowing growth, it has sought to pin blame squarely on the Fed in the event of an economic downturn.

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New w/ @arappeport: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn https://t.co/KWNqktMXov @nytimes

— Colby Smith (@colbyLsmith) November 4, 2025

President Trump’s global tariffs ran headlong into a skeptical Supreme Court on Wednesday, with justices across the spectrum expressing doubt that a 1970s emergency-powers law could be read to provide the president unilateral authority to remake the international economy and collect billions of dollars in import taxes without explicit congressional approval.

But even if the court strikes down the tariffs Trump initiated on his self-declared Liberation Day last April, the justices gave little indication how they might unwind the president’s signature economic policy and favorite diplomatic tool. That left unclear whether previously paid duties would be refunded or whether Congress could be invited to step in, perhaps by ratifying the levies retroactively.

“It seems to me like it could be a mess,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said during the later stages of an oral argument that ran nearly three hours.

Solicitor General John Sauer took heat from all sides as he pressed the administration’s argument: that the president’s power to regulate foreign financial transactions when he declares an emergency includes the authority to impose tariffs. Tariffs were taxes, a majority of justices agreed, and many were dubious that Congress would so casually surrender to the executive its core constitutional power to raise revenue.

“The Constitution is structured so that if I’m going to be asked to pay for something as a citizen, that it’s through a bill that is generated through Congress,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor. “But I’m not going to be taxed unless both houses” of Congress and the president “have made that choice.”

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And that is a wrap on the SCOTUS arguments.

After that argument, if I were the Trump Administration, I'd be burning the midnight oil over the next couple of weeks drawing up tariff backup plans. A clear majority of the Justices appeared skeptical that IEEPA authorizes the type…

— Peter Harrell (@petereharrell) November 5, 2025

Week two of the assisted suicide Bill Select Committee in the House of Lords showed that when Parliament hears from those most at risk, the Bill’s argument collapses. Disability rights campaigners, human rights experts, and mental health specialists gathered to reveal the dangers, shattering the illusion of effective safeguards.

The week began with evidence from leading palliative clinicians, care providers, and a representative from Age UK. Dr Sam Ahmedzai, a pro-assisted suicide doctor, acknowledged that “there will be mistakes and casualties” if the Bill passes. Even he, an assisted suicide fan, could not hide the reality. People would die who should not.

Baroness Hayter, a stalwart of the pro-camp, unwittingly admitted that it is very hard to safely legislate for introducing assisted suicide. Pro-assisted suicide Justice Minister Sarah Sackman floundered, offering evasions and vague complaints about the current law’s “conundrums” and “real difficulties” but few answers. Sackman’s silent sidekick, Paul Candler, spoke for less than 30 seconds during the 75-minute session.

A senior representative from Mind outlined threats to suicide prevention efforts. Dr Sarah Hughes said that Mind simply cannot support the Bill in its current form. Jurisdictions that have legalised assisted suicide have seen the law expand quickly, she said, and assessments by video call are utterly insufficient. Cherryl Henry-Leach, Chief Executive at Standing Together Against Domestic Abuse, summarised this well by stating, “It will be very difficult to deliver assisted dying safely”.

Paralympic legend and member of the House of Lords Tanni Grey-Thompson delivered one of the committee’s most emotional interventions. She branded the Bill “a danger to disabled people,” explaining through obvious emotion how parents fear how their adult children with Down’s syndrome will be treated if they outlive them. Baroness Grey-Thompson dismantled the Bill’s six-month prognosis safeguard, calling it “arbitrary” and a “best guess,” and warned it would not protect disabled people at all. She told her fellow parliamentarians that no disability organisation supports the Bill.

Read it all.

Those most at risk from this law are clear that assisted suicide is unsafe, writes @fleurmeston https://t.co/fTiDsUwZbL

— The Critic (@TheCriticMag) November 3, 2025

At that hearing, Mr [Edward] Dobson said that the “starting point” was that evidence was to be taken in private, on the grounds that this would better protect children and young adults, and that the question whether the default should be for public hearings had been considered by the Synod (Synod, 12 July 2024).

The Measure, given final approval in February (News, 14 February), will now have to be considered further. The intention is that it will replace the Clergy Discipline Measure 2003.

Redress Scheme reviewed. The Ecclesiastical Committee took evidence this week on the Measure to introduce the Redress Scheme for abuse survivors, which was finally approved by the Synod in York in July (News, 18 July). Despite the raising of concerns at a hearing on Tuesday about a data breach by the law firm administering the scheme, the Committee is expected to give the Measure the green light to become law.

In August, it was announced that the email addresses of people who had signed up for updates on the scheme had been disclosed in a data breach by Kennedys, the firm administering the scheme (News, 29 August).

Read it all.

The Ecclesiastical Committee (MPs and Peers who advise on whether draft Measures approved by General Synod should be approved by Parliament) is expected to send the draft Clergy Conduct Measure (CCM) back to the General Synod. V unusual.https://t.co/nr8Et6xThU

— Madeleine Davies (@MadsDavies) October 31, 2025

President Donald Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

“TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A.,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

The ad in question comprises excerpts from an address Reagan gave in 1987 in which he defended the principles of free trade and slammed tariffs as an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices and hurts US workers.

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"Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad" via @dwallbank , @decloet and Hadriana Lowenkronhttps://t.co/VygvQUuiEg

— Stephanie Hughes (@StephHughes95) October 24, 2025

Sequoia Capital’s chief operating officer resigned over comments made by partner Shaun Maguire that she regarded as Islamophobic, as political debates sow division at one of Silicon Valley’s most powerful venture capital firms.

Sumaiya Balbale — a practising Muslim who has spoken publicly about how her gender, ethnicity and faith have shaped her career — stepped down after five years at the company in August. Her decision to leave was precipitated by Maguire’s social media posts, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Maguire, an outspoken and high-profile investor who is close to Elon Musk, wrote on X in July that New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani “comes from a culture that lies about everything. It’s literally a virtue to lie if it advances his Islamist agenda. The West will learn this lesson the hard way.”

Balbale complained to other senior partners at the firm, who declined to take action against Maguire, arguing he was just exercising his right to free speech, the people said. She left soon after, feeling her position was untenable.

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Sequoia COO quit over Shaun Maguire’s comments about Mamdani https://t.co/3WQUHQ0Qnd

— FT Technology News (@fttechnews) October 22, 2025

As a young woman in the late 1970s, Sanae Takaichi commuted six hours a day by bus and train from her parents’ home in western Japan to attend university. She was a fan of heavy metal music and Kawasaki motorcycles who yearned to move out. But her mother insisted at first that she stay home, forbidding her from living in a boardinghouse before marriage.

“I dreamed of having my own castle,” Ms. Takaichi wrote in a 1992 memoir.

On Tuesday, Ms. Takaichi won election as Japan’s prime minister, the first woman to do so in the nation’s history. It was the pinnacle of an improbable rise in politics and a milestone in a country where women have long struggled for influence.

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Breaking News: Sanae Takaichi is Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a heavy metal drummer and hard-line conservative. https://t.co/vfyRnftmfc pic.twitter.com/f17GPcm71o

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 21, 2025

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.

The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said. They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.

Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy came amid a fresh push by the US president to end Russia’s war following the ceasefire secured between Israel and Hamas. 

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Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia https://t.co/AdUz5KW72A via @ChristopherJM @HenryJFoy @maxseddon @ak_mack

— Valentina Pop (@valentinapop) October 19, 2025

It is….increasingly likely that governments will…resort to inflation and financial repression to reduce the real value of their high debts, as they did in the decades after the second world war. The machinery for such a strategy is in place at central banks, which have a large footprint in bond markets. Already, populists such as Mr Trump and Nigel Farage in Britain attack their country’s central banks with proposals that would weaken the defenses against inflation.

Price rises are unpopular—just ask the hapless Joe Biden—but they do not need political support to get going. Nobody voted for them in the 1970s or in 2022. When governments cannot get their act together, and run economic policies that are unsustainable, bouts of inflation just happen. By the time markets wake up, it is too late.

All the more reason to think ahead and reflect on how inflation harms the economy and society. It redistributes wealth unfairly: from creditors to debtors; from those with cash and bonds to those who own real assets such as houses; and from those who agree on contracts and wages in cash terms to those wily enough to anticipate higher prices. It causes what John Maynard Keynes called an “arbitrary rearrangement of riches”. And that could happen just as societies are grappling with other transfers of wealth that the losers will also see as unfair: in the labour market, as AI takes on routine office work; and through inheritance, as baby-boomers bequeath vast property wealth to those lucky enough to have the right parents.

This multi-pronged upheaval of fortunes could wreck the middle class, which binds democracies together, and scramble the social contract.

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Governments are living far beyond their means. Sadly, inflation is the most likely escape. Politicians should think ahead and reflect on how much harm that would do https://t.co/6H1nzpKQQS pic.twitter.com/RF2ACF0MzV

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 16, 2025

Americans are set to pay more than half of President Donald Trump’s tariff costs as companies raise prices, according to economists of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

US consumers will likely shoulder 55% of tariff costs by the end of the year, with American companies taking on 22%, the Goldman analysts wrote in an Oct. 12 research note to clients. Foreign exporters would absorb 18% of tariff costs by cutting prices for goods, while 5% would be evaded, they wrote.

For now “US businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs” as it takes time to raise prices, economists Elsie Peng and David Mericle wrote in the note. “If recently implemented and future tariffs have the same eventual impact on prices as the tariffs implemented earlier this year, then US consumers would eventually absorb 55% of tariff costs.”

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Americans are set to pay more than half of President Donald Trump’s tariff costs as companies raise prices, according to Goldman Sachs economists https://t.co/L04IgE1sdF

— Bloomberg (@business) October 13, 2025

France has been plunged into a fresh political crisis after Sébastien Lecornu, the newly appointed prime minister, unexpectedly resigned on October 6th after less than four weeks in the job. Mr Lecornu came under intense pressure the moment he unveiled a new minority government on Sunday night, keeping most of the incumbent ministers in big jobs in place. Opposition parties cried foul, and threatened to vote down his government with a no-confidence motion as early as this week. Even his coalition partners on the centre-right said they might quit. Mr Lecornu saw the writing on the wall, and decided to leave rather than be forced out.

France has now lost its fourth prime minister in little over a year, and Mr Lecornu becomes the shortest-serving prime minister under the Fifth Republic. A messy situation is fast turning into a crisis, prompting market worries as well as political uncertainty. On Monday morning the yield on France’s ten-year government bond rose nearly eight basis points to 3.6%, close to its highest level since 2011. The shares of France’s two largest banks fell by over 4%.

President Emmanuel Macron appointed the 39-year-old Mr Lecornu, a close political confidante, on September 9th. The new prime minister promised a “rupture” with the outgoing government, which was toppled by parliament the previous day after nine months in office. But when Mr Lecornu named his new team on October 5th, after weeks of discussion with different parliamentary parties, he kept most of the key ministers in place. It was less a new government than a recycling of the old one.

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The unexpected resignation of Sébastien Lecornu, now the shortest-serving prime minister under the fifth republic, has rattled markets and plunged France into yet more political uncertainty https://t.co/Yxd8WlrbDW

Photo: Reuters pic.twitter.com/hAEFJeStaV

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 6, 2025

Online sports betting is not legal in Minnesota, but that hasn’t stopped Ian White from trading money on the outcomes of N.F.L. games. Mr. White, a special education paraprofessional, said he downloaded Kalshi, a “prediction market” app, after seeing an ad on TikTok. He buys contracts worth $10 a game and has made about $130.

“I do consider Kalshi betting,” he said, “but I love how they get around it by selling futures.”

Kalshi can “get around” state gambling laws because on paper it is not a sports gambling app, like FanDuel or DraftKings. Those kinds of online sportsbooks are banned in 20 states, including Minnesota, California and Texas. Instead, Kalshi is an exchange selling financial products tied to the outcome of sporting events — and, with the tacit approval of the Trump administration, is currently available everywhere in the country.

If you wanted to, for example, wager $100 on a Dallas Cowboys victory this weekend, your experience on FanDuel and Kalshi would look remarkably similar….

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"… Kalshi, once known for offering wagers on elections, are now in the multibillion-dollar sports betting business and outside the reach of state regulations and taxes"

Is Sports Betting Illegal in Your State? Not if You Call It a ‘Prediction Market.’https://t.co/FSpVln6jtH

— Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽 (@astraffon) October 5, 2025

Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022 after only a year and a half, blind to the fact that he was taking control of the state during the most precarious period in a nation’s life: its eighth decade.

Let me explain. The first generation of a country is the one that fought. It had no time for existential dilemmas because it was preoccupied with surviving. The second generation was too busy with state-building to entertain such questions.

But the third and fourth generations—my generation—are those for whom the state is a birthright, already built, paved, and functioning. All the profound existential dilemmas that our grandparents tucked away in the attic have come knocking on our national door. A nation’s eighth and ninth decades almost invariably mark the moment when it tears itself apart over the ultimate question: identity.

The United States, in its ninth decade of existence in the 1860s, emerged as a wonderland unlike any other ever seen. The pursuit of happiness swept across the country. Then, Americans found themselves confronting an unsettling question. How, Americans pondered, is it possible that Thomas Jefferson, the author of the words “All men are created equal,” also owns more than 600 black slaves?

The answer: It is not possible. In the United States, two values collided with devastating force: the right to liberty and the right to property. The American Civil War resolved this clash of two values through bloodshed, claiming over 600,000 American lives, including that of the president.

But America was lucky; it survived. Countries do not always survive their identity wars. We all know the Soviet Union’s fate in its eighth decade.

Against this backdrop, Israel’s five elections in four years, ending with Netanyahu’s return to power at the end of 2022, suddenly come into focus: This was the Israeli civil war.

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October 7 Was Israel’s Midlife Crisis.

Read an exclusive excerpt from my new book, A Call at 4 AM, in @TheFP.

Link to pre-order the book in the reply.https://t.co/v8M1sLoEZB

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) October 7, 2025