According to Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase and king of Wall Street, bankers were elated upon Donald Trump’s election victory. Many chafed under Joe Biden’s presidency, as mergers and bank fees faced additional scrutiny, and new capital-market rules came thick and fast. Now, with the inauguration of Mr Trump imminent, American financiers will discover just how much cause they have for celebration.

The industry will certainly experience an abrupt change in how it is overseen. America’s regulatory agencies will take a permissive approach in banking and beyond, with new priorities when enforcing securities laws. Crypto is about to go truly mainstream. And looser rules could enable the consolidation of America’s banking system, home to a vast number of small and mid-sized lenders. The only danger, from Wall Street’s perspective, is that the Trump team’s MAGA instincts and chaotic approach prevent a deregulatory boom.

Read it all.

My first piece in the new gig. Will Trump unleash Wall Street?

Banks and PE have good reason to be excited. But the sector that has by *far* the most to gain is crypto, which is about to be treated as part of mainstream finance for the first time.https://t.co/QFUDd1YeUc

— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) January 15, 2025

Donald Trump is the most powerful Republican politician in a generation, but the president-elect is still no match for the most nihilistic members of his own party. The budget chaos unfolding on Capitol Hill is only a preview of the difficult realities Mr Trump will face when he starts to govern next month.

Members of the expiring 118th Congress—with a Senate narrowly controlled by Democrats and a House narrowly controlled by Republicans—had expected this week to be their last in Washington this year. The main outstanding task was to pass a simple bill, no more than a few pages long, to keep the government funded into 2025 at close to existing levels. The idea was to postpone battles over unresolved policy matters until Mr Trump and the next Congress were in place. Yet nothing is so simple in Washington these days.

Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, knew that a few dozen members of his own Republican caucus would never vote for any budget. Instead he worked with Democrats on a compromise that would keep the government open until March. With Democrats aware of their leverage, the negotiations got away from the speaker, producing the kind of legislative labyrinth that Mr Johnson had vowed to never put up for a vote. In addition to extended funding, its 1,547 pages included disaster aid, support for farmers, and a hotch-potch of other unrelated legislation, from a stadium relocation to restrictions on investments in China. A 3.8% salary increase for lawmakers—the first in 15 years and significantly lower than the 40% that Elon Musk erroneously claimed had been proposed—provoked predictable backlash.

Read it all.

Budgetary chaos is a sign that governing will be harder than Donald Trump might assume https://t.co/8QX33oATck

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 20, 2024

Diocesan bishops are facing fresh demands for the abolition of their seats in the House of Lords. Parliament is considering new legislation to end the centuries-old presence of hereditary peers, and is questioning the presence of the Lords Spiritual (News, 1 November).

In the Second Reading of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, debated over two sessions last week, Baroness Smith of Basildon, the Leader of the House, said: “The intention is crystal clear: to end the hereditary element of the second Chamber before embarking on further changes.”

On behalf of the Government, she explained how the proposed legislation had been part of the Labour election manifesto this year, and described the proposals to remove the 92 hereditary peers who currently sit as “a reasonable and well-trailed piece of legislation”.

Read it all.

Diocesan bishops are facing fresh demands for the abolition of their seats in the House of Lords. Parliament is considering new legislation to end the centuries-old presence of hereditary peers, and is questioning the presence of the Lords Spiritual https://t.co/RfyHB0jAHO pic.twitter.com/Aa5WU00tEE

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) December 19, 2024

Now that Mr Assad has fled to Moscow, the question is where will liberation lead. In a part of the world plagued by ethnic violence and religious strife, many fear the worst. The Arab spring in 2010-12 taught that countries which topple their dictators often end up being fought over or dominated by men who are no less despotic. That is all the more reason to wish and work for something better in Syria.

There is no denying that many forces are conspiring to drag the country into further bloodshed. Syria is a mosaic of peoples and faiths carved out of the Ottoman empire. They have never lived side by side in a stable democracy. The Assads belong to the Alawite minority, which makes up about 10-15% of the population. For decades, they imposed a broadly secular settlement on Syrian society using violence.

Syria’s people have many reasons to seek vengeance. After 13 years of civil war in a country crammed with weapons, some factions will want to settle scores; so will some bad and dangerous men just released from prison. Under the Assads’ henchmen, many of them Alawite and Shia, Sunnis suffered acts of heinous cruelty, including being gassed by chlorine and a nerve agent.

Syria’s new powerbrokers are hardly men of peace. Take the dominant faction in the recent advance. Until 2016 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. Its founder, Ahmad al-Sharaa, had fought the Americans as a member of Islamic State (IS) in Iraq under the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. HTS and Mr Sharaa swear they have left those days behind. If, amid the chaos, such groups set out to impose rigid Islamic rule, foreign countries, possibly including the United Arab Emirates, will bankroll other groups to take up arms against them.

Read it all (registration or subscription).

The fall of a tyrant must be celebrated. And while Syria faces great uncertainty, a nation exhausted by war could yet choose the long road towards peace. Here is how https://t.co/RMkRxpiWW8 pic.twitter.com/nWqNYtt8Nx

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 12, 2024

As a supporter of assisted suicide, Lord Sumption’s argument is commendably honest. He recognises that the Leadbeater bill creates a new kind of society. Although it sprinkles us all with the same fairy dust of autonomy, our new-found entitlement does not land on us all equally. Rather, because of pre-existing social inequalities, it creates two distinct groups. In one, we find “strong-minded, articulate individuals.”

They have a high sense of self-worth and good support networks. To them, assisted suicide represents an idealised form of dying on their own terms. It is an empowering possibility for a future dark day, an option (perhaps that such a person will never actually use) rather than an obligation. In the other group, Lord Sumption writes, we find “the genuinely vulnerable”. For many reasons (illness, old age, hard life circumstances) people in this group often feel dictated to by life. They cannot hold prime ministers to personal account, and are not of much interest to the media. In many cases, their support networks are threadbare.

Lord Sumption admits that such people have good reason to fear the Pandora’s Box opened by Leadbeater’s bill. For them, in time, it will be less an empowering hypothetical option for a future day and more a dark cloud that will hang over every day, a silent obligation to be resisted rather than a liberating insurance plan. Although he supports assisted suicide, it is for the sake of the vulnerable that he is unable to “rejoice” in the first wave of an incoming tide.

Read it all (subscription).

Excellent piece!

“When elevated to life’s highest value, autonomy is an uncompromising and rapacious master. Given time, the strength of its logic bursts through our arbitrary restrictions on it.” –@DrJamesEglinton https://t.co/BbAOKmEeWl

— Keith Plummer (@XianMind) December 7, 2024

The Archbishop of Canterbury has suggested that he may not have been personally responsible for the Church of England’s mishandling of a child sexual abuse scandal.

In his final House of Lords speech as Archbishop, the Most Rev Justin Welby implied that the institution’s failure to stop serial predator John Smyth would have warranted his resignation regardless of his own personal culpability.

He said that a “head” had to “roll”, and that this would have been the case “whether one is personally responsible or not”.

“The reality is that there comes a time, if you are technically leading a particular institution or area of responsibility, where the shame of what has gone wrong, whether one is personally responsible or not, must require a head to roll,” he said.

“And there is only, in this case, one head that rolls well enough.”

Read it all.

Archbishop of Canterbury implies he is not responsible over sex abuse scandalhttps://t.co/DtcUXG4mEU

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 5, 2024

WSJ When Muhammad Imtiaz received an electricity bill of over $120 last summer, he panicked. The bill, for June and July, was all he earns in a month of ferrying passengers on his motorbike in the scrappy suburbs outside Pakistan’s capital Islamabad.

In his two-room home, where he lives with his wife and four children, he only has a fridge and lights. He runs two fans in the summer months when heat can exceed 110 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Should I give my rent, pay the electricity bill, or buy food for my children?” said Imtiaz, who has racked up $3,000 in debt. His family has one meal a day: watered-down lentils with flatbread. A decade ago, Pakistan, cripplingly short of power, turned to Beijing to build more than a dozen coal, solar and hydroelectric power plants as part of China’s huge infrastructure push in the country.

Now a series of policy mistakes by Islamabad means that Pakistan has enough electricity and more—but, due to the huge debt owed to China, few can afford it. The crisis is overwhelming Pakistan’s fragile economy, throwing millions of households into misery, shredding government finances and shutting down industry.

Read it all.

Pakistan’s Reliance on Chinese-Built Power Plants Is Strangling Its Economy—Pakistan turned to Beijing to solve a crippling energy shortage. Now, crushed under debt and sky-high energy prices, its economy is diving.@SaeedShah https://t.co/fVY63hSYHmhttps://t.co/fVY63hSYHm

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 4, 2024

Washington, D.C.
October 3, 1863

By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

William H. Seward,
Secretary of State

#AbrahamLincoln helped establish #Thanksgiving as a national holiday to be celebrated on the last Thursday of November. #AbeSays

We hope you have a healthy, happy holiday!

Source: https://t.co/nGWvipD9Q5 pic.twitter.com/Ao0gOHRcew

— Lincoln Presidential Library (@ALPLM) November 28, 2024

[New York, 3 October 1789]

By the President of the United States of America. a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor — and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquillity, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted — for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions — to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually — to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed — to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord — To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and us — and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

Go: Washington

In 1789, President George Washington, on behalf of Congress, issued a Thanksgiving Proclamation designating Thursday, November 26, as a national day of "public thanksgiving and prayer." ⁣

Learn more: https://t.co/j84NeR2rPH pic.twitter.com/U8R1YqjYDX

— Mount Vernon (@MountVernon) November 28, 2024

Some time ago, I found myself sitting at a dinner opposite a Labour peer. We chatted over various things as the evening proceeded. Just before we were getting up to leave a new topic came up. “I am a convinced campaigner for assisted dying,” she said. “As a bishop, I suspect you’re not. Why don’t you think we should do it?” Put on the spot, struggling to know what to say, and knowing I probably had one line to deliver as we stood up to leave, I said something like this: “Life is a gift from God. It’s not up to us to decide when it ends.” She looked across at me with a pitying look and walked away, clearly unconvinced.

I’ve often wondered what I should have said. Lord Falconer suggests that only secular people like him are ‘objective’ and religious people like me or Shabana Mahmood are biased and therefore our views are to be discounted. The idea that his secular perspective is not colouring his views, but that our religious ones are, or that he is not imposing his beliefs on others whereas we are, is of course, as Isabel Hardman has argued, philosophical nonsense.

Our religious beliefs shape our views, as his secular views shape his. The question is which perspective gives us a better, healthier and more coherent way of living together. I spoke recently to a key figure in the Church of England’s response to Assisted Dying who told me in no uncertain terms that religious arguments simply don’t wash in this debate. We have to use pragmatic and political ones that appeal to a wide audience. And so, the main arguments we have heard from church leaders and others against assisted suicide refer to the slippery slope argument: that legislation will inevitably in time become looser to include more candidates; care for the vulnerable, such as the elderly or the disabled who will feel pressurised into taking their own life, or, as the Health Secretary Wes Streeting has argued, the fact that palliative care is not yet robust enough in our health system to enable a proper choice.

Read it all.

My thoughts on why religion matters in the assisted dying debate https://t.co/SJBK4fUI3B

— Graham Tomlin (@gtomlin) November 27, 2024

Scott Bessent spent the past 40 years studying economic history. Now, as Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Treasury Department, he has the chance to make his mark on it.

As a hedge-fund manager, first at George Soros’s firm and later at his own, Bessent specialized in macroinvesting, or analyzing geopolitical situations and economic data to wager on big-picture market moves. He generated billions of dollars in profits betting on and against currencies, interest rates, stocks and other asset classes around the world.

He was motivated to step out from behind his desk and get involved with Trump’s campaign in part because of a view that time is running out for the U.S. economy to grow its way out of excessive budget deficits and indebtedness.

Read it all.

Scott Bessent Sees a Coming ‘Global Economic Reordering.’ He Wants to Be Part of It. ⁦@WSJ⁩ https://t.co/qkvP5PVnVG

— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) November 25, 2024

The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.

By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic “whale” known only as Théo.

Trump’s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Théo’s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Election Day that “Prediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,” giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls showed the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver wrote on election morning: “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,” thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.

Nope.

Read it all.

“How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024.” Did you know that betting on elections is older than opinion polls? And why it’s more likely to predict the result? My latest for ⁦@WSJ⁩ with ⁦@mrinconcruz⁩. https://t.co/GqYQP2MmJo

— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) November 15, 2024

After years of internal strife, it was a dispute about economic policy that finally toppled the German government. Now Europe is facing months of political paralysis just as its many simmering crises are coming to a boil.

With both France and Germany led by minority governments, the continent’s key powers are facing months of impotent introspection as challenges pile up, from a hostile second Trump administration to the economic headwinds from China and Russia’s steady advances in Ukraine. 

The political currents tossing governments across Europe are similar to those that propelled Donald Trump to win back the presidency, the Senate and very possibly the House. Voters on both sides of the Atlantic are in a restive mood, unhappy with the economy and unimpressed by politicians’ efforts to control a surge in illegal immigration.

But while America’s overall economy is strong, Europe’s recovery from its recent economic shocks has been lackluster, especially in the industrial heartlands of Germany.

Read it all.

"Europe Rudderless"

Both France and Germany now have minority governments.https://t.co/s2WbcRtpOi

— Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) November 7, 2024

Donald Trump is projected to return to the White House next January, according to the Associated Press, and is poised to spur the most dramatic reimagining of the staffing of government in more than a century.

That’s because Trump has vowed to revive Schedule F, a controversial abortive effort at the end of his first term to strip the civil service protections of potentially tens of thousands of career federal workers in “policy-related” positions, effectively making them at-will employees. Trump and many of his former staffers have frequently bemoaned that “rogue bureaucrats” inhibited his policymaking power during his first stint in the White House.

Though President Biden quickly rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021—before any positions could be converted out of the federal government’s competitive service—that hasn’t stopped Trump and his allies from working on the initiative in absentia. Both the Heritage Foundation and America First Policy Institute, which have organized dueling unofficial transition projects have endorsed reviving Schedule F, going so far as to creating lists of upwards of 50,000 current career civil servants to strip of their removal protections and threaten with termination.

Read it all.

What Trump’s win means for the federal workforce https://t.co/rCiwJi8BUN

— Nextgov/FCW (@NextgovFCW) November 6, 2024

On the day after Americans went to the polls in presidential elections, Archbishop Timothy Broglio has expressed the US Bishops’ prayers for President-elect Donald Trump and all members elected to represent the American people at the national, state, or local levels.

In an interview with Vatican News, the President of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) said the Catholic Church is “not aligned with any political party,” adding that the US Bishops’ look forward to working with elected representatives to promote the common good.

“As Christians and as Americans,” he said, “we have a duty to treat each other with charity, respect, and civility, even if we may disagree on how to carry out matters of public policy.”

Archbishop Broglio also noted that the US Bishops will seek to uphold the rights of all people, including the unborn…

Read it all.

Prayer for the United States Government by Archbishop John Carroll

“We pray, O almighty and eternal God,
who through Jesus Christ has revealed thy glory to all nations,
to preserve the works of your mercy,
that your Church, being spread through the whole world,
may continue with… pic.twitter.com/4m8p9BNfeT

— ChurchPOP (@Church_POP) November 6, 2024

Mr. Trump appeared to improve his performance on election night among many types of counties, including ones that had supported him in past elections as well as ones that have historically leaned Democratic.

Read it all.

This "shift from 2020" visualization from the NYT is something.

The movement was toward red, even in deep blue states. pic.twitter.com/4HJerGFQgq

— Prasanna (@BhogalePrasanna) November 6, 2024

Donald J. Trump rode a promise to smash the American status quo to win the presidency for a second time, surviving a criminal conviction, indictments, an assassin’s bullet, accusations of authoritarianism and an unprecedented switch of his opponent to complete a remarkable return to power.

Mr. Trump’s victory caps the astonishing political comeback of a man who was charged with plotting to overturn the last election but who tapped into frustrations and fears about the economy and illegal immigration to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.

His defiant plans to upend the country’s political system held appeal to tens of millions of voters who feared that the American dream was drifting further from reach and who turned to Mr. Trump as a battering ram against the ruling establishment and the expert class of elites.

In a deeply divided nation, voters embraced Mr. Trump’s pledge to seal the southern border by almost any means, to revive the economy with 19th-century-style tariffs that would restore American manufacturing and to lead a retreat from international entanglements and global conflict.

Read it all.

Nyt has it now after calling wisconsin #election #electionresults #politics #usa pic.twitter.com/DFfGWwjOcx

— Kendall Harmon (@KendallHarmon6) November 6, 2024

Almighty God, to whom we must account for all our powers and privileges: Guide and direct, we humbly pray, the minds of all those who are called to elect fit persons to serve the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the United States of America. Grant that in the exercise of our choice we may promote your glory, and the welfare of this nation. This we ask for the sake of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.  Amen.

A beautiful day to see the sun rise in New York City as people head to the polls on election day Tuesday morning #newyorkcity #nyc #newyork #sunrise @empirestatebldg #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/nWy7MusBzE

— Gary Hershorn (@GaryHershorn) November 5, 2024

The biggest single crisis facing the United States on the eve of the election does not come from Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. It does not come from our enemies abroad. It does not come from our dissensions at home. It does not come from unfunded entitlement commitments. It does not come from climate change. Our greatest and most dangerous crisis is the decay of effective leadership at all levels of our national life, something that makes both our foreign and domestic problems, serious as they are, significantly more daunting than they should be.

Average confidence in institutions ranging from higher education to organized religion rests at historic lows, with fewer than 30% of respondents telling Gallup pollsters that they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in major American institutions. Only small business, the military, and the police inspire majorities of the public with a high degree of confidence; less than a fifth of Americans express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers, big business, television news, and Congress. 

Much of the country’s political and intellectual establishment responds defensively to numbers like this, blaming falling confidence on the corrosive effects of social media or the general backwardness and racism of the American public. The East German communist hacks Bertolt Brecht satirized also blamed their failings on the shortcomings of the masses: “The people have lost the confidence of the government and can only regain it through redoubled work.”

While social media is problematic, and not every citizen of the United States is a model of enlightened cosmopolitanism, America’s core problem today is not that the nation is unworthy of the elites who struggle to lead it. That superficial and dismissive response is itself a symptom of elite failure and an obstacle to the deep reform that the American leadership classes badly need.

Read it all.

America’s Crisis of Leadership: How Teddy Roosevelt can help save us from our Marie Antoinette problem: https://t.co/whepP7cGgG

— Tablet Magazine (@tabletmag) November 4, 2024

In principle, Ukraine could liberate its lost territory if the United States and its European partners intervened with forces of their own. But this would require jettisoning the indirect strategy they chose in 2022. It would come at great human, military, and economic cost. And it would introduce far greater risk, as it would mean war between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. For this reason, such a policy will not be adopted.

Instead of clinging to an infeasible definition of victory, Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome. It should still define victory as Kyiv remaining sovereign and independent, free to join whatever alliances and associations it wants. But it should jettison the idea that, to win, Kyiv needs to liberate all its land. So as the United States and its allies continue to arm Ukraine, they must take the uncomfortable step of pushing Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin—and laying out a clear sense of how it should do so.

Such a pivot may be unpopular. It will take political courage to make, and it will require care to implement. But it is the only way to end the hostilities, preserve Ukraine as a truly independent country, enable it to rebuild, and avoid a dire outcome for both Ukraine and the world.

Read it all.

The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs https://t.co/YQorbrdOWe

— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) November 4, 2024

–Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin).

–North Carolina counts fast (with new rules).

–Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night.

–Michigan could be faster than in the past.

–Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting Wednesday.

–Arizona could take days.

–Nevada could take days.

Read it all.

When to Expect Results in Each State on Election Night, and Beyond https://t.co/6WKP9twKkd

— Veronica Grauert (@verograuert) November 4, 2024

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual.

The Bill, introduced by the Labour MP Pat McFadden in September, seeks to remove the automatic membership of hereditaries in the House of Lords. The move to abolish the remaining 92 hereditary peers was promised in Labour’s election manifesto. The Bill had its Second Reading in the Commons last month. The subject was also debated by the Lords in July, shortly after the election (News, 26 July).

Last month, the Conservative MP Sir Gavin Williamson tabled an amendment to the Bill to include a clause that “No-one shall be a member of the House of Lords by virtue of being a bishop or Archbishop of the Church of England.”

Read it all.

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual https://t.co/8r0VXCxTHC

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 31, 2024

Infamously, polls in 2016 and 2020 systematically underestimated Mr Trump’s vote, especially in battleground states. After the 2016 election, the post mortem conducted by AAPOR, a professional organisation of pollsters, pointed to a late swing towards the Republican nominee and overrepresentation of graduates in poll samples. Most firms began to weight their samples to do a better job of reflecting the education profile of voters.

In 2020 the underestimation of Mr Trump was repeated for different reasons. This time AAPOR identified non-response bias—Republican voters were less likely to respond to pollsters. One theory is that they were less likely to be at home during the covid-19 pandemic (twiddling their thumbs and responding to surveys). Another is that Republican voters distrust pollsters, which discourages them from answering surveys.

Since 2020 pollsters have been at pains to reach a representative sample. They have experimented with recruitment that appeals to certain sections of society (postcards plastered with patriotic imagery, for example) and new modes, such as text messages. It is anyone’s guess whether this will be enough to account for the Democratic bias in response rates or whether supporters of Mr Trump are still reluctant to answer polls. If the errors seen in 2020 or 2016 are repeated even to a small degree that would be disastrous for Ms Harris—she could lose all seven swing states.

Read it all.

The last Campaign Calculus to print before the election [] is on polling errors—all seven swing states are well within a normal polling error of flipping! https://t.co/vhMC84TtFE pic.twitter.com/e2JFce3u16

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) October 29, 2024

The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care.

“A review of funding would find a highly variable model for hospices: some are run by the NHS, with large annual charitable grants, and others are run by a charity that gets some funding from the NHS. A common hallmark is a holistic, bespoke, and patient-centred approach that values their relationships,” he said.

“We should not forget that all receiving hospice care are on the edge of eternity, and dying peacefully also requires spiritual palliative care.”

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The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care https://t.co/82wnOqIy6K

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 29, 2024

Data centers are the factories of AI, turning energy and data into intelligence. Industry leaders estimate that a few major U.S. technology companies alone are expected to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers, between 2023 and 2026. The countries that work with companies to host data centers running AI workloads gain economic, political, and technological advantages and leverage. But data centers also present national security sensitivities, given that they often house high-end, export-controlled semiconductors and governments, businesses, and everyday users send some of their most sensitive information through them. And while the United States is ahead of China in many aspects of AI, especially in software and chip design, America faces significant bottlenecks with data centers.

Data centers are critical for the digital economy and AI. But the data center buildout is hitting a wall. The United States is home to the plurality of the world’s data centers, numbering in the thousands. Yet America’s aging energy grid, which powers those data centers, is under enormous strain from a complex set of factors, including rising electricity demand, delayed infrastructure upgrades, extreme weather events, and the complex transition to renewable energy. Meanwhile, surging data center demands driven by rapidly increasing AI workloads are exacerbating the grid’s vulnerabilities.

It’s not just a question of how those energy needs can be met, but where. When it comes to data centers, the shortage of powered land in the United States—or more specifically, the shortage of powered land with the connectivity required to support large-scale data centers—combined with supply chain challenges and lengthy permitting timelines for new infrastructure—presents a challenge to realizing both the public and private sectors’ AI ambitions.

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There are a lot of known unknowns about AI, but “The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics.” In my latest @ForeignPolicy piece, I argue that data might be the “new oil,” but nations—not nature—will decide where to build data centers. Source: Foreign Policy https://t.co/CHLEzhY9I6

— Jared Cohen (@JaredCohen) October 28, 2024

For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, have lost their Lower House majority, following a clear rout in Sunday’s general election — a shift that opens up a potential path for the opposition to steer the lower chamber’s agenda if they can act cohesively.

The loss of its majority was likely to prompt Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek a third party to join the coalition in order to remain in power — a move that would necessitate negotiations, or even concessions.

Negotiating with a third party for its backing in parliament for every bill would exacerbate political instability and drastically reduce the LDP’s authority over the coalition, making Ishiba’s administration even shakier. The policymaking process would inevitably become more fragmented and laborious, requiring a great deal of political capital from the government.

Within the LDP, calls are now growing for accountability among the party leadership in the wake of the electoral drubbing.

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Elections: the LDP (in power almost without interruption since the 1950s) loses several dozen seats and the majority, even with its Buddhist ally Komeito. In addition to recurring scandals, Moon and and undeclared funding, it lost its image of economic efficiency. pic.twitter.com/yvDBAOkZ24

— Valerie Niquet (@VNiquet) October 28, 2024

The Death Spiral is one of the main Pentagon Pathologies. The American people devote ever greater resources to their defense while receiving less and less in return. The Air Force had 10,387 aircraft in 1975 when the Military Reformers began their work in earnest. Today the Air Force has 5,288. The Navy had 559 active ships in 1975. Today the fleet has only 296. The Pentagon’s base budget is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1975, when adjusted for inflation. The American people simply spend more and receive much less in return for their defense dollars.

An argument can be made that modern military equipment is more expensive because of the capabilities they provide the troops. That is extremely debatable because many of the high-profile acquisition programs over the past 25 years have been underwhelming at best, and often complete failures. It is difficult to find anyone who will honestly say the Littoral Combat Ship was worth the effort.

Left unchecked, the acquisition Death Spiral’s inevitable destination is unilateral disarmament. Norman Augustine, a former DoD official and Lockheed Martin CEO predicted in 1983, with only a hint of satire, that by 2054, “the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

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At the current spending rate, in another generation we will have a lot of rich contractors and no aircraft or Naval fleets to speak of https://t.co/k4XV5gsk7Z

— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) October 24, 2024

Don’t turn our doctors into killers, says the Star. Like several of the opposing factions to the bill, it cites Canada as exemplifying the slippery slope, with one in twenty deaths there being by assisted dying.

This argument that the bill will open up unforeseen consequences for the disabled, and indeed for the unfortunate residents of bad care homes, is common, Archbishop Welby, facing down former Archbishop Carey, said that assisted dying was in effect a sword of Damocles over the disabled and aged. We should add that many Canadians choosing state sponsored suicide cite feeling a burden on family and caregivers as their motive. Canada surely vindicates Welby.

This argument really is cogent and necessary, but is it sufficient for a Christian view which sees humanity made in the image and likeness of God, leading to the doctrine of the sanctity of life? As Frost says this a doctrine that has permeated and grounded western civilization. Is it not simply wrong to kill people even those begging to die? Hospices and care giving was the Christian answer, but Christianity is fading fast with its practical altruistic legacy of looking after the sick and dying.

Lord Frost has pointed to our society’s reliance on Judaeo Christian ethics for all its institutions and to the perilous situation of breaking with this tradition of the sanctity of life for a callous utilitarianism. So far his is the deepest theological apologia for the classical Christian ethic of life  on offer, we trust Christian leaders will step up to the challenge soon.

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Ask MPs to oppose assisted suicide

Some helpful tips here https://t.co/wr1LYSQylr

— Better Way (@betterwayUK) October 24, 2024

In Shakespeare’s time, people still lived out their days under the shadow of divine reward and punishment. Lady Macbeth hopes otherwise. “A little water clears us of this deed,” she says as she and her husband rinse their hands of blood. How wrong she was. 

Our leaders could use a dose of the humility of Edward, the Earl of March, who prays, “Ere my knee rise from the earth’s cold face / I throw my hands, mine eyes, my heart to Thee / Thou setter-up and plucker-down of kings.”

King Lear knew what it was to be set up and plucked down, and only in his reduced state did he taste the wonder of grace. Shakespeare often echoes what theologians call “the theology of reversal,” as expressed in the Beatitudes.

In the paradox of grace, he describes in As You Like It, “Sweet are the uses of adversity / Which, like the toad, ugly and venomous / Wears yet a precious jewel in his head.” Dogberry, the comical constable in Much Ado About Nothing, gets his words mixed up in a deeply ironic way when he says to a wrongdoer, “O, villain! Thou wilt be condemned into everlasting redemption.”

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William Shakespeare’s honest tragedies and bold assumption of God’s providence offer insight in our contentious election season.

From @philipyancey:https://t.co/O4FQPN9eCB

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 23, 2024

More than a quarter of Americans believe that civil war could break out after this year’s presidential election, according to polling for The Times.

Fears that an eruption of violence is very or somewhat likely are shared across the political divide by 27 per cent of American adults, including 30 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men, YouGov found in a survey of 1,266 registered voters on October 18-21.

Twelve per cent of respondents said they knew someone who might take up arms if they thought Donald Trump was cheated out of victory in under two weeks’ time. Five per cent said they knew someone who might do the same if they thought Kamala Harris was cheated.

The YouGov poll found 84 per cent of US voters said America was more divided than ten years ago, with only 5 per cent thinking it less divided.

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Just over a quarter of Americans fear civil war will break out after this year's elections, a new poll for @thetimes by @YouGovAmerica shows https://t.co/v5qGmVwJth

— David Charter (@DavidCharter) October 23, 2024